Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea

The growth and decay of sea ice are complex processes and have important feedback onto the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. In the Antarctic, sea ice variability significantly affects the primary productivity in the Southern Ocean and thereby negatively influences the performance and survival of species in polar ecosystem. In present days, the awareness on the sea ice variability in the Antarctic is not as matured as it is for the Arctic region. The present paper focuses on the inter-annual trends (1999-2009) observed in the monthly fractional sea ice cover in the Antarctic at 1 × 1 degree level, for the November and February months, derived from QuikSCAT scatterometer data. OSCAT scatterometer data from India’s Oceansat-2 satellite were used to asses the sea ice extent (SIE) observed in the month of November 2009 and February 2010 and its deviation from climatic maximum (1979-2002) sea ice extent (CMSIE). Large differences were observed between SIE and CMSIE, however, trend results show that it is due to the high inter-annual variability in sea ice cover. Spatial distribution of trends show the existence of positive and negative trends in the parts of Western Pacific Ocean, Ross Sea, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (ABS), Weddell Sea and Indian ocean sector of southern ocean. Sea ice trends are compared with long-term SST trends (1982-2009) observed in the austral summer month of February. Large-scale cooling trend observed around Ross Sea and warming trend in ABS sector are the distinct outcome of the study.

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Last Glacial Maximum Antarctic sea ice linked with global mean ocean temperature: evidence from PMIP3, PMIP4 and MIROC-4m simulations

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3550 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tristan Vadsaria ◽

Sam Sherriff-Tadano ◽

Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽

Takashi Obase ◽

Wing-Le Chan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Last Glacial Maximum ◽

Ocean Circulation ◽

Glacial Maximum ◽

Ocean Temperature ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Last Glacial ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

The Antarctic

<p>Southern Ocean sea ice and oceanic fronts are known to play an important role on the climate system, carbon cycles, bottom ocean circulation, and Antarctic ice sheet. However, many models of the previous Past-climate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) underestimated sea-ice extent (SIE) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)(Roche et al., 2012; Marzocchi and Jensen, 2017), mainly because of surface bias (Flato et al., 2013) that may have an impact on mean ocean temperature (MOT). Indeed, recent studies further suggest an important link between Southern Ocean sea ice and mean ocean temperature (Ferrari et al., 2014; Bereiter et al., 2018 among others). Misrepresent the Antarctic sea-ice extent could highly impact deep ocean circulation, the heat transport and thus the MOT. In this study, we will stress the relationship between the distribution of Antarctic sea-ice extent and the MOT through the analysis of the PMIP3 and PMIP4 exercise and by using a set of MIROC models. To date, the latest version of MIROC improve its representation of the LGM Antarctic sea-ice extent, affecting the deep circulation and the MOT distribution (Sherriff-Tadano et al., under review).</p><p>Our results show that available PMIP4 models have an overall improvement in term of LGM sea-ice extent compared to PMIP3, associated to colder deep and bottom ocean temperature. Focusing on MIROC (4m) models, we show that models accounting for Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature (SST) bias correction reproduce an Antarctic sea-ice extent, 2D-distribution, and seasonal amplitude in good agreement with proxy-based data. Finally, using PMIP-MIROC analyze, we show that it exists a relationship between the maximum SIE and the MOT, modulated by the Antarctic intermediate and bottom waters.</p>

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Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice–ocean feedback

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-8-453-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 453-470 ◽

Cited By ~ 48

Author(s):

H. Goosse ◽

V. Zunz

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Mixed Layer Depth ◽

Initial Perturbation ◽

Salt Transport ◽

Freshwater Flux ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Ice Concentration ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. The large natural variability of the Antarctic sea ice is a key characteristic of the system that might be responsible for the small positive trend in sea ice extent observed since 1979. In order to gain insight of the processes responsible for this variability, we have analysed in a control simulation performed with a coupled climate model a positive ice–ocean feedback that amplifies sea ice variations. When sea ice concentration increases in a region, in particular close to the ice edge, the mixed layer depth tends to decrease. This can be caused by a net inflow of ice, and thus of freshwater, that stabilizes the water column. A second stabilizing mechanism at interannual timescales is associated with the downward salt transport due to the seasonal cycle of ice formation: brine is released in winter and mixed over a deep layer while the freshwater flux caused by ice melting is included in a shallow layer, resulting in a net vertical transport of salt. Because of this stronger stratification due to the presence of sea ice, more heat is stored at depth in the ocean and the vertical oceanic heat flux is reduced, which contributes to maintaining a higher ice extent. This positive feedback is not associated with a particular spatial pattern. Consequently, the spatial distribution of the trend in ice concentration is largely imposed by the wind changes that can provide the initial perturbation. A positive freshwater flux could alternatively be the initial trigger but the amplitude of the final response of the sea ice extent is finally set up by the amplification related to the ice–ocean feedback. Initial conditions also have an influence as the chance to have a large increase in ice extent is higher if starting from a state characterized by a low value.

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Positive Trend in the Antarctic Sea Ice Cover and Associated Changes in Surface Temperature

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-16-0408.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 30 (6) ◽

pp. 2251-2267 ◽

Cited By ~ 64

Author(s):

Josefino C. Comiso ◽

Robert A. Gersten ◽

Larry V. Stock ◽

John Turner ◽

Gay J. Perez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Climate Models ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Southern Annular Mode ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Growth Season ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. The positive trend is confirmed with newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-yr period starting in 1981, and the results of the analysis show a strong correlation of −0.94 during the growth season and −0.86 during the melt season. The correlation coefficients are even stronger with a one-month lag in surface temperature at −0.96 during the growth season and −0.98 during the melt season, suggesting that the trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature. The correlation with atmospheric circulation as represented by the southern annular mode (SAM) index appears to be relatively weak. A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature. The results suggest that the positive trend is a consequence of the spatial variability of global trends in surface temperature and that the ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.

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Antarctic Sea Ice Response to Weather and Climate Modes of Variability*

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-15-0301.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 29 (2) ◽

pp. 721-741 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

Tsubasa Kohyama ◽

Dennis L. Hartmann

Keyword(s):

Indian Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Time Scale ◽

Ross Sea ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Large Fraction ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Climate Modes ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

The Indian Ocean

Abstract The relationship between climate modes and Antarctic sea ice is explored by separating the variability into intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales. Cross-spectral analysis shows that geopotential height and Antarctic sea ice extent are most coherent at periods between about 20 and 40 days (the intraseasonal time scale). In this period range, where the atmospheric circulation and the sea ice extent are most tightly coupled, sea ice variability responds strongly to Rossby waves with the structure of the Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern. The PSA pattern in this time scale is not directly related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the southern annular mode (SAM), which have received much attention for explaining Antarctic sea ice variability. On the interannual time scale, ENSO and SAM are important, but a large fraction of sea ice variance can also be explained by Rossby wave–like structures in the Drake Passage region. After regressing out the sea ice extent variability associated with ENSO, the observed positive sea ice trends in Ross Sea and Indian Ocean during the satellite era become statistically insignificant. Regressing out SAM makes the sea ice trend in the Indian Ocean insignificant. Thus, the positive trends in sea ice in the Ross Sea and the Indian Ocean sectors may be explained by the variability and decadal trends of known interannual climate modes.

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Brief communication: Antarctic sea ice gain does not compensate for increased solar absorption from Arctic ice loss

10.5194/tc-2016-279 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Christian Katlein ◽

Stefan Hendricks ◽

Jeffrey Key

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Radiation Budget ◽

Shortwave Radiation ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Solar Absorption ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Polar Oceans ◽

Arctic Ice ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. Here we show on the basis of the new consistent long-term observational dataset APP-x, that the observed increase of sea ice extent in the Antarctic cannot compensate for the loss of Arctic sea ice in terms of the shortwave radiation budget in the polar oceans poleward of 50° latitude. The observations show, that apart from retreating sea-ice additional effects like albedo changes and especially changing cloud coverage lead to a total increase of solar shortwave energy deposited into the polar oceans despite of the marginal increase in Antarctic winter sea ice extent.

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Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-7-4585-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 7 (5) ◽

pp. 4585-4632 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

H. Goosse ◽

V. Zunz

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Mixed Layer Depth ◽

Initial Perturbation ◽

Salt Transport ◽

Freshwater Flux ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Ice Concentration ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. The large natural variability of the Antarctic sea ice is a key characteristic of the system that might be responsible for the small positive trend in sea ice extent observed since 1979. In order to gain insight in the processes responsible for this variability, we have analysed in a control simulation performed with a coupled climate model a strong positive ice-ocean feedback that amplifies sea ice variations. When sea ice concentration increases in a region, in particular close to the ice edge, the mixed layer depth tends to decrease. This can be caused by a net inflow of ice and thus of freshwater that stabilizes the water column. Another stabilizing mechanism at interannual time scales that appears more widespread in our simulation is associated with the downward salt transport due to the seasonal cycle of ice formation: brine is released in winter when ice is formed and mixed over a deep layer while the freshwater flux caused by ice melting is included in a shallow layer, resulting in a net vertical transport of salt. Because of this stronger stratification due to the presence of sea ice, more heat is stored at depth in the ocean and the vertical oceanic heat flux is reduced, which contributes to maintain a higher ice extent. This positive feedback is not associated with a particular spatial pattern. Consequently, the spatial distribution of the trend in ice concentration is largely imposed by the wind changes that can provide the initial perturbation. A positive freshwater flux could alternatively be the initial trigger but the amplitude of the final response of the sea ice extent is finally set up by the amplification related to ice-ocean feedback. Initial conditions have also an influence as the chance to have a large increase in ice extent is higher if starting from a state characterized by a low value.

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A Regime Shift in Seasonal Total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the 20th Century

10.21203/rs.3.rs-828060/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ryan Fogt ◽

Amanda Sleinkofer ◽

Marilyn Raphael ◽

Mark Handcock

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

20Th Century ◽

Climate Models ◽

Historical Context ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Coupled Climate Models ◽

High Degree ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract In stark contrast to the Arctic, there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979, despite a sudden decline in sea ice in 2016(1–5) and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Attributing Antarctic sea ice trends is complicated by the fact that most coupled climate models show negative trends in sea ice extent since 1979, opposite of that observed(6–8). Additionally, the short record of sea ice extent (beginning in 1979), coupled with the high degree of interannual variability, make the record too short to fully understand the historical context of these recent changes(9). Here we show, using new robust observation-based reconstructions, that 1) these observed recent increases in Antarctic sea ice extent are unique in the context of the 20th century and 2) the observed trends are juxtaposed against statistically significant decreases in sea ice extent throughout much of the early and middle 20th century. These reconstructions are the first to provide reliable estimates of total sea ice extent surrounding the continent; previous proxy-based reconstructions are limited(10). Importantly, the reconstructions continue to show the high degree of interannual Antarctic sea ice extent variability that is marked with frequent sudden changes, such as observed in 2016, which stress the importance of a longer historical context when assessing and attributing observed trends in Antarctic climate(9). Our reconstructions are skillful enough to be used in climate models to allow better understanding of the interconnected nature of the Antarctic climate system and to improve predictions of the future state of Antarctic climate.

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Observations of exponential wave attenuation in Antarctic sea ice during the PIPERS campaign

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/aog.2020.36 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 61 (82) ◽

pp. 196-209 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alison L. Kohout ◽

Madison Smith ◽

Lettie A. Roach ◽

Guy Williams ◽

Fabien Montiel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Wave Attenuation ◽

Ross Sea ◽

Large Wave ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Observation Systems ◽

Ice Concentration ◽

Rate Of Decay ◽

Ice Production ◽

The Antarctic

AbstractQuantifying the rate of wave attenuation in sea ice is key to understanding trends in the Antarctic marginal ice zone extent. However, a paucity of observations of waves in sea ice limits progress on this front. We deployed 14 waves-in-ice observation systems (WIIOS) on Antarctic sea ice during the Polynyas, Ice Production, and seasonal Evolution in the Ross Sea expedition (PIPERS) in 2017. The WIIOS provide in situ measurement of surface wave characteristics. Two experiments were conducted, one while the ship was inbound and one outbound. The sea ice throughout the experiments generally consisted of pancake and young ice <0.5 m thick. The WIIOS survived a minimum of 4 d and a maximum of 6 weeks. Several large-wave events were captured, with the largest recorded significant wave height over 9 m. We find that the total wave energy measured by the WIIOS generally decays exponentially in the ice and the rate of decay depends on ice concentration.

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