Inter-annual variations observed in spring and summer Antarctic sea ice extent in recent decade

The growth and decay of sea ice are complex processes and have important feedback onto the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. In the Antarctic, sea ice variability significantly affects the primary productivity in the Southern Ocean and thereby negatively influences the performance and survival of species in polar ecosystem. In present days, the awareness on the sea ice variability in the Antarctic is not as matured as it is for the Arctic region. The present paper focuses on the inter-annual trends (1999-2009) observed in the monthly fractional sea ice cover in the Antarctic at 1 × 1 degree level, for the November and February months, derived from QuikSCAT scatterometer data. OSCAT scatterometer data from India’s Oceansat-2 satellite were used to asses the sea ice extent (SIE) observed in the month of November 2009 and February 2010 and its deviation from climatic maximum (1979-2002) sea ice extent (CMSIE). Large differences were observed between SIE and CMSIE, however, trend results show that it is due to the high inter-annual variability in sea ice cover. Spatial distribution of trends show the existence of positive and negative trends in the parts of Western Pacific Ocean, Ross Sea, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (ABS), Weddell Sea and Indian ocean sector of southern ocean. Sea ice trends are compared with long-term SST trends (1982-2009) observed in the austral summer month of February. Large-scale cooling trend observed around Ross Sea and warming trend in ABS sector are the distinct outcome of the study.

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Antarctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-6-931-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 931-956 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

C. L. Parkinson ◽

D. J. Cavalieri

Keyword(s):

Indian Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Ross Sea ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Weddell Sea ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Research ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Ice Coverage

Abstract. In sharp contrast to the decreasing sea ice coverage of the Arctic, in the Antarctic the sea ice cover has, on average, expanded since the late 1970s. More specifically, satellite passive-microwave data for the period November 1978–December 2010 reveal an overall positive trend in ice extents of 17 100 ± 2300 km2 yr−1. Much of the increase, at 13 700 ± 1500 km2 yr−1, has occurred in the region of the Ross Sea, with lesser contributions from the Weddell Sea and Indian Ocean. One region, that of the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has, like the Arctic, instead experienced significant sea ice decreases, with an overall ice extent trend of −8200 ± 1200 km2 yr−1. When examined through the annual cycle over the 32-yr period 1979–2010, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice cover as a whole experienced positive ice extent trends in every month, ranging in magnitude from a low of 9100 ± 6300 km2 yr−1 in February to a high of 24 700 ± 10 000 km2 yr−1 in May. The Ross Sea and Indian Ocean also had positive trends in each month, while the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas had negative trends in each month, and the Weddell Sea and Western Pacific Ocean had a mixture of positive and negative trends. Comparing ice-area results to ice-extent results, in each case the ice-area trend has the same sign as the ice-extent trend, but differences in the magnitudes of the two trends identify regions with overall increasing ice concentrations and others with overall decreasing ice concentrations. The strong pattern of decreasing ice coverage in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas region and increasing ice coverage in the Ross Sea region is suggestive of changes in atmospheric circulation. This is a key topic for future research.

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Antarctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-6-871-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 871-880 ◽

Cited By ~ 292

Author(s):

C. L. Parkinson ◽

D. J. Cavalieri

Keyword(s):

Indian Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Ross Sea ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Weddell Sea ◽

The Arctic ◽

Future Research ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Ice Coverage

Abstract. In sharp contrast to the decreasing sea ice coverage of the Arctic, in the Antarctic the sea ice cover has, on average, expanded since the late 1970s. More specifically, satellite passive-microwave data for the period November 1978–December 2010 reveal an overall positive trend in ice extents of 17 100 ± 2300 km2 yr−1. Much of the increase, at 13 700 ± 1500 km2 yr−1, has occurred in the region of the Ross Sea, with lesser contributions from the Weddell Sea and Indian Ocean. One region, that of the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has (like the Arctic) instead experienced significant sea ice decreases, with an overall ice extent trend of −8200 ± 1200 km2 yr−1. When examined through the annual cycle over the 32-yr period 1979–2010, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice cover as a whole experienced positive ice extent trends in every month, ranging in magnitude from a low of 9100 ± 6300 km2 yr−1 in February to a high of 24 700 ± 10 000 km2 yr−1 in May. The Ross Sea and Indian Ocean also had positive trends in each month, while the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas had negative trends in each month, and the Weddell Sea and western Pacific Ocean had a mixture of positive and negative trends. Comparing ice-area results to ice-extent results, in each case the ice-area trend has the same sign as the ice-extent trend, but the magnitudes of the two trends differ, and in some cases these differences allow inferences about the corresponding changes in sea ice concentrations. The strong pattern of decreasing ice coverage in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas region and increasing ice coverage in the Ross Sea region is suggestive of changes in atmospheric circulation. This is a key topic for future research.

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A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated?

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-8-1289-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 1289-1296 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

I. Eisenman ◽

W. N. Meier ◽

J. R. Norris

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Current Data ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Data Set ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Ice Retreat ◽

Bootstrap Algorithm ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that much of the increase in the reported trend occurred due to the previously undocumented effect of a change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely used Bootstrap algorithm data set, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Specifically, we find that a change in the intercalibration across a 1991 sensor transition when the data set was reprocessed in 2007 caused a substantial change in the long-term trend. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current data set or the version that was used prior to the mid-2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the data set. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that much of this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the processing of the satellite observations.

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Impact of ice sheet – ocean interactions on the Southern Ocean using fully coupled models over a circumpolar domain

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4325 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Charles Pelletier ◽

Lars Zipf ◽

Konstanze Haubner ◽

Deborah Verfaillie ◽

Hugues Goosse ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

The Arctic ◽

Surface Cooling ◽

Coupled Models ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

The Antarctic

From at least 1979 up until 2016, the surface of the Southern Ocean cooled down, leading to a small Antarctic sea ice extent increase, which is in stark contrast with the Arctic Ocean. The attribution of the origin of these robust observations is still very uncertain. Among other phenomena, the direct, two-way interactions between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic ice sheet, through basal melting of its numerous and large ice-shelf cavities, have been suggested as a potentially important contributor of this cooling. In order to address this question, we perform multidecadal coupled ice sheet &#8211; ocean numerical simulations relying on f.ETISh-v1.7 and NEMO3.6-LIM3 for simulating the Antarctic ice sheet and Southern Ocean (including sea ice), respectively. This presentation is twofold. First, we present the technical aspects of the coupling infrastructure (e.g. workflow and exchanged information in between models). Second, we investigate the ice sheet &#8211; ocean feedbacks on the Southern Ocean, their interactions, and the roles of the related physical mechanisms on the ocean surface cooling.

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A spurious jump in the satellite record: is Antarctic sea ice really expanding?

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-8-273-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 273-288 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

I. Eisenman ◽

W. N. Meier ◽

J. R. Norris

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Ice Cover ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Physical Mechanisms ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Ice Retreat ◽

Bootstrap Algorithm ◽

Sea Ice Retreat ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that the increase in the reported trend occurred primarily due to the effect of a previously undocumented change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely-used Bootstrap algorithm dataset, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this undocumented change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current dataset or the version that was used prior to the mid-2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the dataset. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the satellite observations, and that the actual Antarctic sea ice cover may not be expanding at all.

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Last Glacial Maximum Antarctic sea ice linked with global mean ocean temperature: evidence from PMIP3, PMIP4 and MIROC-4m simulations

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3550 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tristan Vadsaria ◽

Sam Sherriff-Tadano ◽

Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽

Takashi Obase ◽

Wing-Le Chan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Last Glacial Maximum ◽

Ocean Circulation ◽

Glacial Maximum ◽

Ocean Temperature ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Last Glacial ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

The Antarctic

Southern Ocean sea ice and oceanic fronts are known to play an important role on the climate system, carbon cycles, bottom ocean circulation, and Antarctic ice sheet. However, many models of the previous Past-climate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) underestimated sea-ice extent (SIE) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)(Roche et al., 2012; Marzocchi and Jensen, 2017), mainly because of surface bias (Flato et al., 2013) that may have an impact on mean ocean temperature (MOT). Indeed, recent studies further suggest an important link between Southern Ocean sea ice and mean ocean temperature (Ferrari et al., 2014; Bereiter et al., 2018 among others). Misrepresent the Antarctic sea-ice extent could highly impact deep ocean circulation, the heat transport and thus the MOT. In this study, we will stress the relationship between the distribution of Antarctic sea-ice extent and the MOT through the analysis of the PMIP3 and PMIP4 exercise and by using a set of MIROC models. To date, the latest version of MIROC improve its representation of the LGM Antarctic sea-ice extent, affecting the deep circulation and the MOT distribution (Sherriff-Tadano et al., under review).Our results show that available PMIP4 models have an overall improvement in term of LGM sea-ice extent compared to PMIP3, associated to colder deep and bottom ocean temperature. Focusing on MIROC (4m) models, we show that models accounting for Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature (SST) bias correction reproduce an Antarctic sea-ice extent, 2D-distribution, and seasonal amplitude in good agreement with proxy-based data. Finally, using PMIP-MIROC analyze, we show that it exists a relationship between the maximum SIE and the MOT, modulated by the Antarctic intermediate and bottom waters.

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Positive Trend in the Antarctic Sea Ice Cover and Associated Changes in Surface Temperature

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-16-0408.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 30 (6) ◽

pp. 2251-2267 ◽

Cited By ~ 64

Author(s):

Josefino C. Comiso ◽

Robert A. Gersten ◽

Larry V. Stock ◽

John Turner ◽

Gay J. Perez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Climate Models ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Southern Annular Mode ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Growth Season ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. The positive trend is confirmed with newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-yr period starting in 1981, and the results of the analysis show a strong correlation of −0.94 during the growth season and −0.86 during the melt season. The correlation coefficients are even stronger with a one-month lag in surface temperature at −0.96 during the growth season and −0.98 during the melt season, suggesting that the trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature. The correlation with atmospheric circulation as represented by the southern annular mode (SAM) index appears to be relatively weak. A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature. The results suggest that the positive trend is a consequence of the spatial variability of global trends in surface temperature and that the ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.

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Impact of sea ice on the marine iron cycle and phytoplankton productivity

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-11-4713-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (17) ◽

pp. 4713-4731 ◽

Cited By ~ 42

Author(s):

S. Wang ◽

D. Bailey ◽

K. Lindsay ◽

J. K. Moore ◽

M. Holland

Keyword(s):

Southern Ocean ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Phytoplankton Production ◽

Iron Cycle ◽

Surface Ocean ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Iron Concentrations

Abstract. Iron is a key nutrient for phytoplankton growth in the surface ocean. At high latitudes, the iron cycle is closely related to the dynamics of sea ice. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice cover has been declining rapidly and Antarctic sea ice has exhibited large regional trends. A significant reduction of sea ice in both hemispheres is projected in future climate scenarios. In order to adequately study the effect of sea ice on the polar iron cycle, sea ice bearing iron was incorporated in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Sea ice acts as a reservoir for iron during winter and releases the trace metal to the surface ocean in spring and summer. Simulated iron concentrations in sea ice generally agree with observations in regions where iron concentrations are relatively low. The maximum iron concentrations simulated in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice are much lower than observed, which is likely due to underestimation of iron inputs to sea ice or missing mechanisms. The largest iron source to sea ice is suspended sediments, contributing fluxes of iron of 2.2 × 108 mol Fe month−1 in the Arctic and 4.1 × 106 mol Fe month−1 in the Southern Ocean during summer. As a result of the iron flux from ice, iron concentrations increase significantly in the Arctic. Iron released from melting ice increases phytoplankton production in spring and summer and shifts phytoplankton community composition in the Southern Ocean. Results for the period of 1998 to 2007 indicate that a reduction of sea ice in the Southern Ocean will have a negative influence on phytoplankton production. Iron transport by sea ice appears to be an important process bringing iron to the central Arctic. The impact of ice to ocean iron fluxes on marine ecosystems is negligible in the current Arctic Ocean, as iron is not typically the growth-limiting nutrient. However, it may become a more important factor in the future, particularly in the central Arctic, as iron concentrations will decrease with declining sea ice cover and transport.

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A Regime Shift in Seasonal Total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the 20th Century

10.21203/rs.3.rs-828060/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ryan Fogt ◽

Amanda Sleinkofer ◽

Marilyn Raphael ◽

Mark Handcock

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

20Th Century ◽

Climate Models ◽

Historical Context ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Antarctic Sea Ice ◽

Coupled Climate Models ◽

High Degree ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract In stark contrast to the Arctic, there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979, despite a sudden decline in sea ice in 2016(1–5) and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Attributing Antarctic sea ice trends is complicated by the fact that most coupled climate models show negative trends in sea ice extent since 1979, opposite of that observed(6–8). Additionally, the short record of sea ice extent (beginning in 1979), coupled with the high degree of interannual variability, make the record too short to fully understand the historical context of these recent changes(9). Here we show, using new robust observation-based reconstructions, that 1) these observed recent increases in Antarctic sea ice extent are unique in the context of the 20th century and 2) the observed trends are juxtaposed against statistically significant decreases in sea ice extent throughout much of the early and middle 20th century. These reconstructions are the first to provide reliable estimates of total sea ice extent surrounding the continent; previous proxy-based reconstructions are limited(10). Importantly, the reconstructions continue to show the high degree of interannual Antarctic sea ice extent variability that is marked with frequent sudden changes, such as observed in 2016, which stress the importance of a longer historical context when assessing and attributing observed trends in Antarctic climate(9). Our reconstructions are skillful enough to be used in climate models to allow better understanding of the interconnected nature of the Antarctic climate system and to improve predictions of the future state of Antarctic climate.

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Plumbing the depths - the waters of the Ross Sea

Antarctic Science ◽

10.1017/s0954102003001172 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 1-1

Author(s):

STANLEY S. JACOBS

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Continental Shelf ◽

Ocean Circulation ◽

Ross Sea ◽

Ice Cover ◽

Surface Layers ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

The Antarctic

The first oceanographic measurements in the Ross Sea were made by its discoverer James Clark Ross, from the Erebus, on 18 January 1841. Since that time its continental shelf, seasonally ice free in most years, has proved a magnet to explorers and scientists, if not to fishermen and tourists. Nevertheless, our knowledge of this environment is rapidly being outpaced by our ignorance of its variability. For example, the Ross Sea contains two of the largest, most persistent polynyas on the Antarctic coastline, but its sea ice extent has increased over recent decades while its salinity has steadily declined. Are regional winds now stronger, the ocean circulation faster, and the ice thinner now than at the time of the IGY? Are its winter polynyas characterized more by upwelling driven by offshore winds, or downwelling due to brine release when sea ice is formed? How are polynya surface layers stabilized and iron-enriched, reportedly enhancing summer productivity, if the ice cover is blown away before it can melt in situ?

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