Resource competition and technological diversity

The work develops and investigates a mathematical model for evolution of the technological structure of an economic system where different technologies compete for the common essential resources. The model is represented by a system of consumer–resource rate equations. Consumers are technologies formalized as populations of weakly differentiated firms producing a similar commodity with like average output. Firms are characterized by the Leontief–Liebig production function in stock-flow representation. Firms self-replicate with a rate proportional to production output of the respective technology and dissolve with a constant rate of decay. The resources are supplied to the system from outside and consumed by concerned technologies; the unutilized resource amounts are removed elsewhere. The inverse of a per firm break-even resource availability is proposed to serve as a measure for competitiveness towards a given resource. The necessary conditions for coexistence of different technologies are derived, according to which each contender must be a superior competitor for one specific resource and an inferior competitor for the others. The model yields a version of the principle of competitive exclusion: in a steady state, the number of competing technologies cannot exceed the number of limiting resources. Competitive outcomes (either dominance or coexistence) in the general system of multiple technologies feeding on multiple essential resources are shown to be predictable from knowledge of the resource-dependent consumption and growth rates of each technological population taken alone. The proposed model of exploitative competition with explicit resource dynamics enables more profound insight into the patterns of technological change as opposed to conventional mainstream models of innovation diffusion.

Humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines: Role of past infection

Two mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) against severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are globally authorized as a two-dose regimen. Understanding the magnitude and duration of protective immune responses is vital to curbing the pandemic. We enrolled 461 high-risk health services workers at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and first responders in the Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD) to assess the humoral responses in previously infected (PI) and infection naïve (NPI) individuals to mRNA-based vaccines (BNT162b2/Pfizer- BioNTech or mRNA-1273/Moderna). A chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay was used to detect antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 Spike in vaccinees prior to (n = 21) and following each vaccine dose (n = 246 following dose 1 and n = 315 following dose 2), and at days 31–60 (n = 110) and 61–90 (n = 190) following completion of the 2-dose series. Both vaccines induced robust antibody responses in all immunocompetent individuals. Previously infected individuals achieved higher median peak titers (p = 0.002) and had a slower rate of decay (p = 0.047) than infection-naïve individuals. mRNA-1273 vaccinated infection-naïve individuals demonstrated modestly higher titers following each dose (p = 0.005 and p = 0.029, respectively) and slower rates of antibody decay (p = 0.003) than those who received BNT162b2. A subset of previously infected individuals (25%) required both doses in order to reach peak antibody titers. The biologic significance of the differences between previously infected individuals and between the mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 vaccines remains uncertain, but may have important implications for booster strategies.

The M 6.5 Ambon earthquake 26 September 2019: the source mechanism and the aftershock sequence characteristics

The area of Ambon, Maluku is located in the subduction zone in bands where the Australian plate meets the Eurasian plate, thus causing tectonic activities. The Ambon earthquake on 26th September 2019 with 6.5 Magnitude, while the Epicentral coordinates of the earthquake were determined as 3,53° S and 128,39° E and a focal depth of 10 km, according to the Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Indonesia. This earthquake was strongly felt at the biggest shock was felt with intensity VI-VII as unified in Ambon City, while several other areas are reported to have experienced small shaking, such as Intensity V in Masohi, and Intensity IV in Namlea and Namrole. We used a dataset of 24 waveforms of seven sensors, we determine a tabular solution, which have a large moment of 0.4573 x 1019 N-m, the depth is 6 km by minimizing the inversion residual. The method resulting strike and rake fault, with strike: 341.8°; dip; 81.5°; rake: 158.4°, and second nodal plane strike: 75.1°; dip; 68.6°; rake: 9.14°. The mechanisms were compared with those from other agency in agreement. The time decay intervals between mainshocks and significant aftershocks follow Mogi and Utsu’s Law but with a relatively faster rate of decay than that of aftershocks in general.

Proviral Turnover During Untreated HIV Infection Is Dynamic and Variable Between Hosts, Impacting Reservoir Composition on ART

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can persist as an integrated provirus, in a transcriptionally repressed state, within infected cells. This small yet enduring pool of cellular reservoirs that harbor replication-competent HIV is the main barrier to cure. Entry of viral sequences into cellular reservoirs begins shortly after infection, and cells containing integrated proviral DNA are extremely stable once suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) is initiated. During untreated HIV infection however, reservoir turnover is likely to be more dynamic. Understanding these dynamics is important because the longevity of the persisting proviral pool during untreated infection dictates reservoir composition at ART initiation. If the persisting proviral pool turns over slowly pre-ART, then HIV sequences seeded into it during early infection would have a high likelihood of persisting for long periods. However, if pre-ART turnover was rapid, the persisting proviral pool would rapidly shift toward recently circulating HIV sequences. One-way to estimate this turnover rate is from the age distributions of proviruses sampled shortly after therapy initiation: this is because, at the time of sampling, the majority of proviral turnover would have already occurred prior to ART. Recently, methods to estimate a provirus’ age from its sequence have made this possible. Using data from 12 individuals with HIV subtype C for whom proviral ages had been determined phylogenetically, we estimated that the average proviral half-life during untreated infection was 0.78 (range 0.45–2.38) years, which is >15 times faster than that of proviral DNA during suppressive ART. We further show that proviral turnover during untreated infection correlates with both viral setpoint and rate of CD4+ T-cell decline during this period. Overall, our results support dynamic proviral turnover pre-ART in most individuals, which helps explain why many individuals’ reservoirs are skewed toward younger HIV sequences. Broadly, our findings are consistent with the notion that active viral replication creates an environment less favorable to proviral persistence, while viral suppression creates conditions more favorable to persistence, where ART stabilizes the proviral pool by dramatically slowing its rate of decay. Strategies to inhibit this stabilizing effect and/or to enhance reservoir turnover during ART could represent additional strategies to reduce the HIV reservoir.

Asymptotic behaviour of orbit determination for hyperbolic maps

We deal with the orbit determination problem for hyperbolic maps. The problem consists in determining the initial conditions of an orbit and, eventually, other parameters of the model from some observations. We study the behaviour of the confidence region in the case of simultaneous increase in the number of observations and the time span over which they are performed. More precisely, we describe the geometry of the confidence region for the solution, distinguishing whether a parameter is added to the estimate of the initial conditions or not. We prove that the inclusion of a dynamical parameter causes a change in the rate of decay of the uncertainties, as suggested by some known numerical evidences.

SIR Model Parameters Estimation with COVID-19 Data

Based on the SIR model that divides the population into susceptible, infected and removed individuals, data about the evolution of the pandemic compiled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHUCSSE) are integrated into the numerical system solution. The system parameters Rate of Contact β, Basic Reproduction Number R0 and Removal Rate γ, also named Rate of Decay, are determined according to a ridge regression approach and a mobile statistical scheme with different averages. Data is automatically downloaded from https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19. The main Python libraries used are Numpy, Pandas, Skit-Learn, Requests and Urllib.

Distance decay 2.0 – a global synthesis of taxonomic and functional turnover in ecological communities

Understanding the variation in community composition and species abundances, i.e., β-diversity, is at the heart of community ecology. A common approach to examine β-diversity is to evaluate directional turnover in community composition by measuring the decay in the similarity among pairs of communities along spatial or environmental distances. We provide the first global synthesis of taxonomic and functional distance decay along spatial and environmental distance by analysing 149 datasets comprising different types of organisms and environments. We modelled an exponential distance decay for each dataset using generalized linear models and extracted r2 and slope to analyse the strength and the rate of the decay. We studied whether taxonomic or functional similarity has stronger decay across the spatial and environmental distances. We also unveiled the factors driving the rate of decay across the datasets, including latitude, spatial extent, realm, and organismal features. Taxonomic distance decay was stronger along spatial and environmental distances compared with functional distance decay. The rate of taxonomic spatial distance decay was the fastest in the datasets from mid-latitudes while the rate of functional decay increased with latitude. Overall, datasets covering larger spatial extents showed a lower rate of decay along spatial distances but a higher rate of decay along environmental distances. Marine ecosystems had the slowest rate of decay. This synthesis is an important step towards a more holistic understanding of patterns and drivers of taxonomic and functional β-diversity.

High Initial Titres of Anti-Spike Antibodies following SARS-CoV-2 Infection is Associated with Faster Decay Rates at Four Months Follow-Up

BackgroundDynamics of humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 antigens following infection suggests an initial decay of antibody followed by subsequent stabilization. We aim to understand the longitudinal humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) protein and spike (S) protein and to evaluate their correlation to clinical symptoms among healthcare workers (HCW).MethodsIn this cross-sectional longitudinal cohort study done in two phases over four months, HCW underwent serial qualitative serology testing for anti-N antibody, quantitative MSH-ELISA to detect Receptor Binding Domain and full-length S reactive antibodies and completed online surveys about COVID-19 related symptoms and healthcare/community exposure.ResultsAnti-N antibody positivity was 27% and anti-S positivity was 28% in Phase 1. In Phase 2 anti-S titres were higher in symptomatic than in asymptomatic positive subjects in Phase 1. Marginally higher titers were seen in asymptomatic compared to the symptomatic positive subgroup in Phase 2. A positive correlation was noted between age, number and duration of symptoms, and Phase 1 anti-S antibody titre. A strong correlation was observed between Phase 1 titers and decay of anti-S antibody titres between the two phases. Significant correlation with rate of decay was also noted with fever, GI symptoms, and total number and duration of COVID-19 symptoms.ConclusionsHigher initial anti-S antibody titres were associated with larger number and longer duration of symptoms as well as faster decay during the two time points.Key PointsQuestionWhat is the decay rate of neutralizing antibodies among SARS-CoV-2 infected healthcare workers?FindingsIn this cohort study that included 178 healthcare workers, over a 4-month period following the COVID-19 pandemic, participants had an initial rise in anti-nucleocapsid (N) and anti-spike (S) antibodies, which was followed by decay and stabilization of the titres. Significant correlation with rate of decay was noted with the symptomatic participants.MeaningA strong correlation is observed in the decay of anti-S antibody titres based on symptomology, thus eluding to the fact that continued recommendations for infection protection and COVID-19 vaccine campaigns are necessary.

Different historical generation intervals in human populations inferred from Neanderthal fragment lengths and patterns of mutation accumulation

After the main out-of-Africa event, humans interbred with Neanderthals leaving 1-2% of Neanderthal DNA scattered in small fragments in all non-African genomes today1,2. Here we investigate the size distribution of these fragments in non-African genomes3. We find consistent differences in fragment length distributions across Eurasia with 11% longer fragments in East Asians than in West Eurasians. By comparing extant populations and ancient samples, we show that these differences are due to a different rate of decay in length by recombination since the Neanderthal admixture. In line with this, we observe a strong correlation between the average fragment length and the accumulation of derived mutations, similar to what is expected by changing the ages at reproduction as estimated from trio studies4. Altogether, our results suggest consistent differences in the generation interval across Eurasia, by up to 20% (e.g. 25 versus 30 years), over the past 40,000 years. We use sex-specific accumulations of derived alleles to infer how these changes in generation intervals between geographical regions could have been mainly driven by shifts in either male or female age of reproduction, or both. We also find that previously reported variation in the mutational spectrum5 may be largely explained by changes to the generation interval and not by changes to the underlying mutational mechanism. We conclude that Neanderthal fragment lengths provide unique insight into differences of a key demographic parameter among human populations over the recent history.