Abstract. General circulation model (GCM) evaluation using ground-based observations
is complicated by inconsistencies in hydrometeor and phase definitions. Here
we describe (GO)2-SIM, a forward simulator designed for objective
hydrometeor-phase evaluation, and assess its performance over the North
Slope of Alaska using a 1-year GCM simulation. For uncertainty assessment,
18 empirical relationships are used to convert model grid-average
hydrometeor (liquid and ice, cloud, and precipitation) water contents to
zenith polarimetric micropulse lidar and Ka-band Doppler radar measurements,
producing an ensemble of 576 forward-simulation realizations. Sensor
limitations are represented in forward space to objectively remove from
consideration model grid cells with undetectable hydrometeor mixing ratios,
some of which may correspond to numerical noise. Phase classification in forward space is complicated by the inability of
sensors to measure ice and liquid signals distinctly. However, signatures
exist in lidar–radar space such that thresholds on observables can be
objectively estimated and related to hydrometeor phase. The
proposed phase-classification technique leads to misclassification in fewer than 8 % of
hydrometeor-containing grid cells. Such misclassifications arise because,
while the radar is capable of detecting mixed-phase conditions, it can
mistake water- for ice-dominated layers. However, applying the same
classification algorithm to forward-simulated and observed fields should
generate hydrometeor-phase statistics with similar uncertainty.
Alternatively, choosing to disregard how sensors define hydrometeor phase
leads to frequency of occurrence discrepancies of up to 40 %. So, while
hydrometeor-phase maps determined in forward space are very different from
model “reality” they capture the information sensors can provide and
thereby enable objective model evaluation.