scholarly journals SARS-CoV-19’s actual initial cases in Wuhan, China and the impact of different interventions and imports in the pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 245 ◽  
pp. 03047
Author(s):  
Xiaochuan Li
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Intervention Level ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Start your abstract here…In late 2019, a new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 outbreak began in China and has since spread around the world, causing nearly one million deaths. By the time this article was written, most countries were still in high-and medium-risk, and this pandemic may continue to the year 2021 or even later. However, when this virus first appeared is still under debate. In this paper, I employ a realistic model and the officially reported data to investigate when SARS-CoV-2 first appeared in China, and how many people were infected with the novel coronavirus at the beginning of Dec in 2019. In addition, I used simulation to get the relationship between imported cases and local intervention measures to predict the current intervention level in China. Based on the first part of the simulation, the result indicate that the number and time of the initial cases reported in China might have under a certain inaccuracy. This underestimation of the severity of the pandemic delayed the progress of epidemic prevention and control. In addition, the increase or decrease of imported cases and the intensity of epidemic prevention measures will directly affect the arrival of the epidemic peak. Of course, the number of incoming cases at this time also has a direct impact on the number of deaths and confirmed patients. We used the model to simulate the overall diagnosis of the disease in Wuhan in the early and late stages of the epidemic, and to approximate the difference between the real and the official data. In addition, we also for the late number of imported cases and different intervention has been analyzed, for the future of the normalization of prevention and control recommendations.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Pedestrian Flow Patterns in Urban POIs—An Example from Beijing

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 479
Author(s):  
Yihang Li ◽  
Liyan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Pedestrian Flow ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Functional Categories ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major challenge for society as a whole, and analyzing the impact of the spread of the epidemic and government control measures on the travel patterns of urban residents can provide powerful help for city managers to designate top-level epidemic prevention policies and specific epidemic prevention measures. This study investigates whether it is more appropriate to use groups of POIs with similar pedestrian flow patterns as the unit of study rather than functional categories of POIs. In this study, we analyzed the hour-by-hour pedestrian flow data of key locations in Beijing before, during, and after the strict epidemic prevention and control period, and we found that the pedestrian flow patterns differed greatly in different periods by using a composite clustering index; we interpreted the clustering results from two perspectives: groups of pedestrian flow patterns and functional categories. The results show that depending on the specific stage of epidemic prevention and control, the number of unique pedestrian flow patterns decreased from four before the epidemic to two during the strict control stage and then increased to six during the initial resumption of work. The restrictions on movement are correlated with most of the visitations, and the release of restrictions led to an increase in the variety of unique pedestrian flow patterns compared to that in the pre-restriction period, even though the overall number of visitations decreased, indicating that social restrictions led to differences in the flow patterns of POIs and increased social distance.

scholarly journals Notes from the Field: Effectiveness of Prevention and Control Measures for Imported COVID-19 in Guangming District of Shenzhen

2020 ◽  
pp. 016327872097183
Author(s):  
Xiaoliang Chen ◽  
Tieqiang Wang ◽  
Yang Zhao ◽  
Yunjie Wu ◽  
Ranran Qie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Screening Strategy ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Returning To Work ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was present in most provinces of China after January 2020. We implemented a surveillance and screening strategy that included early detection of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and people who were exposed to the disease in Guangming District of Shenzhen. Separate targeted treatment and management strategies were applied to confirmed and suspected cases. From January 23 to March 13, 2020, we found 12 suspected cases, and 11 were confirmed as positive. Although eight of the 11 confirmed cases were family-aggregated, they were all imported cases with common exposure, which did not further cause local community transmission, and no medical staff were infected. After February 14, when the last case was confirmed, there were no newly confirmed cases for 28 consecutive days under the strict outbreak control. The targeted and whole-society involved prevention and control measures prevented the spread of the disease in a very short time and provided a strong guarantee for the orderly recovery of returning to work and social activities.

scholarly journals Statistical distribution of novel coronavirus in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-146
Author(s):  
Elham Gholami ◽  
Kamyar Mansori ◽  
Mojtaba Soltani-Kermanshahi
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Best Fit

Background and Aim: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic – novel coronavirus (nCoV) spread worldwide in 2019, and by March 27, 2020, 199 countries, including Iran, were affected. Prevention and control of the infection is the most important public health priority today. The behavior prediction of COVID-19 is a significant problem. Therefore, in the present research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. Materials and Methods: In this research, we compared the different distribution of COVID-19 cases based on the daily reported data in Iran. We focused on 36 initial data on deaths and new cases with confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Iran based on official reports from governmental institutes. We used the three types of continuous distribution known as Normal, Lognormal, and Weibull. Results: Our study showed that the Weibull distribution was the best fit to the data. However, the parameters of distribution were different between data on new cases and daily deaths. Conclusion: According to the mean and median of the best-fitted distribution, we can expect to pass the peak of the disease. In other words, the death rate is decreasing. Similar behaviors of COVID-19 in both Iran and China, in the long run, can be seen.

scholarly journals RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF INTERNET MEDIA ON EPIDEMIC PREVENTION AND CONTROL

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
FAN ZHANG ◽  
JIA-HUI LI
Keyword(s):  
New Media ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Online Media ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Control Work ◽  
The Masses ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 broke out. After the COVID-19 outbreak, online media became an important channel for the masses to obtain information about the epidemic. According to the different social functions of various online media, this paper classifies the important online media in this epidemic into four categories, namely, official media, government media, market-oriented media and We-media. By using the crawler software tool, crawling the Weibo data of the People’s Daily, The Paper, Healthy China, and Doctor Do of Concord, from January 1, 2020, to March 1, 2020, combined with the data of confirmed cases of the domestic novel coronavirus epidemic in the same period, constructed a multiple regression model to conduct empirical research on the effects of online media on different subjects. The research results show that official new media and market-based media are negatively correlated with the number of people infected with the epidemic, whereas government media are more inclined to reflect the law of the development of the epidemic and are positively correlated with the development of the epidemic. Therefore, taking the initiative to grasp the public opinion guidance of the official media and market-oriented media can achieve better publicity effect in the epidemic prevention and control work.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Objective: Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods: The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number ( R eff ) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the countermeasures was assessed. Results: A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit well with the reported data ( R 2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The R eff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would reach a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would be 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions: COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proved effective, increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals An Investigation on the Public's Acceptance of Prevention and Control Measures for COVID-19 in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ao Zhang ◽  
Xiang Wu ◽  
Jingqi Gao ◽  
Yongbao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Public Acceptance ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background: China has basically succeeded in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic, which is due to the cooperation and acceptance of epidemic prevention measures by the public. However, few studies have examined the measures China has taken to combat COVID-19 in order to reflect on its success in curbing the the spread of epidemic.Methods: In this study, the public acceptance questionnaire was designed based on the epidemic prevention measures adopted in China, to investigate the difference of public acceptance of epidemic prevention measures. The survey data was collected from 2,062 samples with different demographic characteristics from March 8, 2020 to April 9, 2020. And SPSS was used to analyze the data collected in the questionnaire, such as one-way variance, so as to draw conclusions.Results: The results show that age and educational level have a significant influence on public acceptance. In contrast gender and occupation field has no significant impact on it. The acceptance of the emergency prevention and control measures taken by the government during the epidemic period is generally high. With the development of the epidemic, the acceptability is increasing. And the public acceptance of traffic measures was highest. Conclusions: Rapid deployment of epidemic prevention measures and appropriate methods in transportation, economy and education are the key to China's effective containment of the epidemic. Measures such as shutting down cities and encouraging the wearing of masks deserve to be copied by other countries. This study summed up China's scientific experience in the fight against COVID-19 and differences in public acceptance. It can provide a positive reference for the development of epidemic prevention measures in other countries.

The epidemic burden on prisons in Lombardy (Italy) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: the transmission and measures of prevention in detention facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruggero Giuliani ◽  
Sara Mazzilli ◽  
Teresa Sebastiani ◽  
Giorgia Cocca ◽  
Raffaella Bortolotti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lombardy Region ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Detention Facilities

Purpose Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community highlighted a potential risk of epidemics occurring inside prisons. Consequently, specific operational guidelines were promptly released, and containment measures were quickly implemented in prisons. This paper aims to describe the spread of COVID-19 in detention facilities within the Lombardy region of Italy during March to July 2020, and the impact of the prevention and control measures implemented. Design/methodology/approach A descriptive retrospective analysis of case distribution was performed for all COVID-19 cases identified among people in detention (PiD) and prison officers (POs). A comparison of the epidemic burden affecting different populations and a correlation analysis between the number of cases that occurred and prevention measures implemented were also carried out. Findings From this study, it emerged that POs were at a high risk of contracting COVID-19. This study observed a delay in the occurrence of cases among PiD and substantial heterogeneity in the size of outbreaks across different prisons. Correlation between reported cases among PiD and registered sick leave taken by POs suggested the latter contributed to introducing the infection into prison settings. Finally, number of cases among PiD inversely correlated with the capacity of each prison to identify and set up dedicated areas for medical isolation. Originality/value Prevention and control measures when adopted in a timely manner were effective in protecting PiD. According to the findings, POs are a population at high risk for acquiring and transmitting COVID-19 and should be prioritized for testing, active case finding and vaccination. This study highlights the critical importance of including prison settings within emergency preparedness plans.

scholarly journals Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqing Cheng ◽  
Jianli Hu ◽  
Li Luo ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
Nan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Jiangsu Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Age Group ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Severe Fever

Abstract Background During the period of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, strong intervention measures, such as lockdown, travel restriction, and suspension of work and production, may have curbed the spread of other infectious diseases, including natural focal diseases. In this study, we aimed to study the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases (brucellosis, malaria, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome [HFRS], dengue, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome [SFTS], rabies, tsutsugamushi and Japanese encephalitis [JE]). Methods The data on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and natural focal disease cases were collected from Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu Provincial CDC). We described and compared the difference between the incidence in 2020 and the incidence in 2015–2019 in four aspects: trend in reported incidence, age, sex, and urban and rural distribution. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model was adopted for natural focal diseases, malaria and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), and an ARIMA (p, d, q) model was adopted for dengue. Nonparametric tests were used to compare the reported and the predicted incidence in 2020, the incidence in 2020 and the previous 4 years, and the difference between the duration from illness onset date to diagnosed date (DID) in 2020 and in the previous 4 years. The determination coefficient (R2) was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model simulation. Results Natural focal diseases in Jiangsu Province showed a long-term seasonal trend. The reported incidence of natural focal diseases, malaria and dengue in 2020 was lower than the predicted incidence, and the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The reported incidence of brucellosis in July, August, October and November 2020, and SFTS in May to November 2020 was higher than that in the same period in the previous 4 years (P < 0.05). The reported incidence of malaria in April to December 2020, HFRS in March, May and December 2020, and dengue in July to November 2020 was lower than that in the same period in the previous 4 years (P < 0.05). In males, the reported incidence of malaria in 2020 was lower than that in the previous 4 years, and the reported incidence of dengue in 2020 was lower than that in 2017–2019. The reported incidence of malaria in the 20–60-year age group was lower than that in the previous 4 years; the reported incidence of dengue in the 40–60-year age group was lower than that in 2016–2018. The reported cases of malaria in both urban and rural areas were lower than in the previous 4 years. The DID of brucellosis and SFTS in 2020 was shorter than that in 2015–2018; the DID of tsutsugamushi in 2020 was shorter than that in the previous 4 years. Conclusions Interventions for COVID-19 may help control the epidemics of natural focal diseases in Jiangsu Province. The reported incidence of natural focal diseases, especially malaria and dengue, decreased during the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020. COVID-19 prevention and control measures had the greatest impact on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases in males and people in the 20–60-year age group. Graphical Abstract

scholarly journals Importations of COVID-19 into African countries and risk of onward spread

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haoyang Sun ◽  
Borame L Dickens ◽  
Alex R Cook ◽  
Hannah E Clapham
Keyword(s):  
African Country ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Imported Case ◽  
Case Count ◽  
The World ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019 has caused widespread transmission around the world. As new epicentres in Europe and America have arisen, of particular concern is the increased number of imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Africa, where the impact of the pandemic could be more severe. We aim to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases imported from 12 major epicentres in Europe and America to each African country, as well as the probability of reaching 10,000 infections in total by the end of March, April, and May following viral introduction.MethodsWe used the reported number of cases imported from the 12 major epicentres in Europe and America to Singapore, as well as flight data, to estimate the number of imported cases in each African country. Under the assumption that Singapore has detected all the imported cases, the estimates for Africa were thus conservative. We then propagated the uncertainty in the imported case count estimates to simulate the onward spread of the virus, until 10,000 infections are reached or the end of May, whichever is earlier. Specifically, 1,000 simulations were run separately under two scenarios, where the reproduction number under the stay-at-home order was assumed to be 1.5 and 1.0 respectively.FindingsWe estimated Morocco, Algeria, South Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, and Nigeria as having the largest number of COVID-19 cases imported from the 12 major epicentres. Based on our 1,000 simulation runs, Morocco and Algeria’s estimated probability of reaching 10,000 infections by end of March was close to 100% under both scenarios. In particular, we identified countries with less than 100 cases in total reported by end of April whilst the estimated probability of reaching 10,000 infections by then was higher than 50% even under the more optimistic scenario.ConclusionOur study highlights particular countries that are likely to reach (or have reached) 10,000 infections far earlier than the reported data suggest, calling for the prioritization of resources to mitigate the further spread of the epidemic.

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