scholarly journals Development of ANN Model for the Prediction of VIV Fatigue Damage of Top-tensioned Riser

2018 ◽  
Vol 203 ◽  
pp. 01013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eileen Wee Chin Wong ◽  
Han Suk Choi ◽  
Do Kyun Kim ◽  
Fakhruldin Mohd Hashim
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Outer Diameter ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Damage Prediction ◽  
Simplified Approach ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Marine riser experiences vortex-induced vibration (VIV) caused by current, leading to fatigue damage if VIV is not considered in design of riser. Estimation of VIV fatigue damage is essential in designing feasible and operable riser. A simplified approach for predicting fatigue damage is required to reduce the computation time to analyze the fatigue damage. This study aims to explore the applicability of artificial neural network (ANN) approach in developing top-tensioned riser fatigue damage prediction model. A total of 2100 riser model is generated with different combination of four main input parameters: riser outer diameter, wall thickness, top tension and uniform current velocity. The modal analysis is performed using OrcaFlex and VIV fatigue damage of the riser is computed using SHEAR7. The four input parameters and corresponding fatigue damage results make up the database for training a 2-layer neural network. Weight and bias values acquired from the training of ANN are used to develop the VIV fatigue damage prediction model of the riser. The results show ANN approach is suitable for prediction of the riser fatigue damage due to VIV. The proposed approach requires further refinements and extension to more input features to improve the accuracy and usefulness of the developed prediction model.

By Using Logarithmic Regression and Artificial Neural Network to Improve Prediction Model of Dead Number Resulted from Road Traffic Accidents in Turkey

2018 ◽  
pp. 446-453
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Damage Prediction ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Traffic accidents occurred on highway in Turkey cause materially and morally damage. To decrease the damage, prediction model developed. In this study, demographic and traffic data which from 1970 to 2007 are used. These data are consist of dependent and independent variables. Dependent variable is formed Number of Dead (ND). As for independent variables are comprised Population (P), Registered Number of Vehicle (VN), Vehicle-km (VK), Number of Drivers (DN). Models are developed using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Logarithmic Regression (LR) enhanced by Smeed. PVNVKDN model developed taking real values logarithm is the best performance of models in LR technique. VKDN created by using historical data sets is the best model in ANN technique. As for models created by randomly selected data, the best model is VKDN. When performances of best models are compared, VKDN is the best model because of lowest error rate.

A Non-Linear Auto-Regressive With Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model for Building Thermal Load Prediction

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byeongho Yu ◽  
Dongsu Kim ◽  
Heejin Cho ◽  
Pedro Mago
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Nonlinear System ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Thermal Load ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Abstract Thermal load prediction is a key part of energy system management and control in buildings, and its accuracy plays a critical role to improve and maintain building energy performance and efficiency. To address this issue, various types of prediction model have been considered and studied, such as physics-based, statistical, and machine learning models. Physical models can be accurate but require extended lead time for model development. Statistical models are relatively simple to develop and require less computation time than other models, but they may not provide accurate results for complex energy systems with an intricate nonlinear dynamic behavior. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, one of the prevalent machine learning methods to predict building thermal load, combining with the concept of Non-linear Auto-Regression with Exogenous inputs (NARX). NARX-ANN prediction model is distinguished from typical ANN models due to the fact that the NARX concept can address nonlinear system behaviors effectively based on recurrent architectures and time indexing features. To examine the suitability and validity of NARX-ANN model for building thermal load prediction, a case study is carried out using field data of an academic campus building at Mississippi State University. Results show that the proposed NARX-ANN model can provide an accurate prediction performance and effectively address nonlinear system behaviors in the prediction.

Predicting the Workability of Self-Compacting Concrete Using Artificial Neural Network

2010 ◽  
Vol 168-170 ◽  
pp. 1730-1734
Author(s):  
Fang Xian Li ◽  
Qi Jun Yu ◽  
Jiang Xiong Wei ◽  
Jian Xin Li
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Self Compacting Concrete ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Slump Flow ◽  
Super Plasticizer ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

An artificial neural network (ANN) is presented to predict the workability of self compacting concrete (SCC) containing slump, slump flow and V-test. A data set of a laboratory work, in which a total of 23 concretes were produced, was utilized in the ANNs study. ANN model is constructed, trained and tested using these data. The data used in the ANN model are arranged in a format of six input parameters that cover the cement, fly ash, blast furnace slag, super plasticizer, sand ratio and water/binder, three output parameters which are slump, slump flow and V-test of SCC. ANN-1, ANN-2 and ANN-3 models which containing 15 ,11 and 5 neurons in the hidden layers, respectively are found to predict workability of concrete well within the ranges of the input parameters considered. The three models are tested by comparing to the results to actual measured data. The results showed that ANN-2 is the best suitable for predicting the workability of SCC using concrete ingredients as input parameters.

scholarly journals Predicting the 14-Day Hospital Readmission of Patients with Pneumonia Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5110
Author(s):  
Shu-Farn Tey ◽  
Chung-Feng Liu ◽  
Tsair-Wei Chien ◽  
Chin-Wei Hsu ◽  
Kun-Chen Chan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Patient Discharge ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Healthcare Settings ◽  
High Area ◽  
Icd 10 ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Unplanned patient readmission (UPRA) is frequent and costly in healthcare settings. No indicators during hospitalization have been suggested to clinicians as useful for identifying patients at high risk of UPRA. This study aimed to create a prediction model for the early detection of 14-day UPRA of patients with pneumonia. We downloaded the data of patients with pneumonia as the primary disease (e.g., ICD-10:J12*-J18*) at three hospitals in Taiwan from 2016 to 2018. A total of 21,892 cases (1208 (6%) for UPRA) were collected. Two models, namely, artificial neural network (ANN) and convolutional neural network (CNN), were compared using the training (n = 15,324; ≅70%) and test (n = 6568; ≅30%) sets to verify the model accuracy. An app was developed for the prediction and classification of UPRA. We observed that (i) the 17 feature variables extracted in this study yielded a high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75 using the ANN model and that (ii) the ANN exhibited better AUC (0.73) than the CNN (0.50), and (iii) a ready and available app for predicting UHA was developed. The app could help clinicians predict UPRA of patients with pneumonia at an early stage and enable them to formulate preparedness plans near or after patient discharge from hospitalization.

Modeling of lime production process using artificial neural network

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abolghasem Daeichian ◽  
Rana Shahramfar ◽  
Elham Heidari
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Production Process ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Rotary Kilns ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Lime Production

Abstract Lime is a significant material in many industrial processes, including steelmaking by blast furnace. Lime production through rotary kilns is a standard method in industries, yet it has depreciation, high energy consumption, and environmental pollution. A model of the lime production process can help to not only increase our knowledge and awareness but also can help reduce its disadvantages. This paper presents a black-box model by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the lime production process considering pre-heater, rotary kiln, and cooler parameters. To this end, actual data are collected from Zobahan Isfahan Steel Company, Iran, which consists of 746 data obtained in a duration of one year. The proposed model considers 23 input variables, predicting the amount of produced lime as an output variable. The ANN parameters such as number of hidden layers, number of neurons in each layer, activation functions, and training algorithm are optimized. Then, the sensitivity of the optimum model to the input variables is investigated. Top-three input variables are selected on the basis of one-group sensitivity analysis and their interactions are studied. Finally, an ANN model is developed considering the top-three most effective input variables. The mean square error of the proposed models with 23 and 3 inputs are equal to 0.000693 and 0.004061, respectively, which shows a high prediction capability of the two proposed models.

Application of Real-Time Field Data to Optimize Drilling Hydraulics Using Neural Network Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanfang Wang ◽  
Saeed Salehi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Lost Circulation ◽  
Drilling Performance ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Pump Pressure

Real-time drilling optimization improves drilling performance by providing early warnings in operation Mud hydraulics is a key aspect of drilling that can be optimized by access to real-time data. Different from the investigated references, reliable prediction of pump pressure provides an early warning of circulation problems, washout, lost circulation, underground blowout, and kicks. This will help the driller to make necessary corrections to mitigate potential problems. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict hydraulics was implemented through the fitting tool of matlab. Following the determination of the optimum model, the sensitivity analysis of input parameters on the created model was investigated by using forward regression method. Next, the remaining data from the selected well samples was applied for simulation to verify the quality of the developed model. The novelty is this paper is validation of computer models with actual field data collected from an operator in LA. The simulation result was promising as compared with collected field data. This model can accurately predict pump pressure versus depth in analogous formations. The result of this work shows the potential of the approach developed in this work based on NN models for predicting real-time drilling hydraulics.

Sobol′ Sensitivity Analysis Using a Neural Network Model of a LB-LOCA in the ZION Nuclear Power Plant With CATHARE-2 V2.5 Code

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Fouet ◽  
Pierre Probst
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Computer Code ◽  
Numerical Application ◽  
Loss Of Coolant Accident ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

In nuclear safety, the Best-Estimate (BE) codes may be used in safety demonstration and licensing, provided that uncertainties are added to the relevant output parameters before comparing them with the acceptance criteria. The uncertainty of output parameters, which comes mainly from the lack of knowledge of the input parameters, is evaluated by estimating the 95% percentile with a high degree of confidence. IRSN, technical support of the French Safety Authority, developed a method of uncertainty propagation. This method has been tested with the BE code used is CATHARE-2 V2.5 in order to evaluate the Peak Cladding Temperature (PCT) of the fuel during a Large Break Loss Of Coolant Accident (LB-LOCA) event, starting from a large number of input parameters. A sensitivity analysis is needed in order to limit the number of input parameters and to quantify the influence of each one on the response variability of the numerical model. Generally, the Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is done with linear correlation coefficients. This paper presents a new approach to perform a more accurate GSA to determine and to classify the main uncertain parameters: the Sobol′ methodology. The GSA requires simulating many sets of parameters to propagate uncertainties correctly, which makes of it a time-consuming approach. Therefore, it is natural to replace the complex computer code by an approximate mathematical model, called response surface or surrogate model. We have tested Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methodology for its construction and the Sobol′ methodology for the GSA. The paper presents a numerical application of the previously described methodology on the ZION reactor, a Westinghouse 4-loop PWR, which has been retained for the BEMUSE international problem [8]. The output is the first maximum PCT of the fuel which depends on 54 input parameters. This application outlined that the methodology could be applied to high-dimensional complex problems.

Prediction of Hot Aisle Partition Airflow Boundary Conditions

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihang Song ◽  
Bruce T. Murray ◽  
Bahgat Sammakia
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Data Center ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Design Tool ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Flow Rates ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Optimization Methodology ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

The integration of a simulation-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) has been explored as a real-time design tool for data center thermal management. The computation time for the ANN-GA approach is significantly smaller compared to a fully CFD-based optimization methodology for predicting data center operating conditions. However, difficulties remain when applying the ANN model for predicting operating conditions for configurations outside of the geometry used for the training set. One potential remedy is to partition the room layout into a finite number of characteristic zones, for which the ANN-GA model readily applies. Here, a multiple hot aisle/cold aisle data center configuration was analyzed using the commercial software FloTHERM. The CFD results are used to characterize the flow rates at the inter-zonal partitions. Based on specific reduced subsets of desired treatment quantities from the CFD results, such as CRAC and server rack air flow rates, the approach was applied for two different CRAC configurations and various levels of CRAC and server rack flow rates. Utilizing the compact inter-zonal boundary conditions, good agreement for the airflow and temperature distributions is achieved between predictions from the CFD computations for the entire room configuration and the reduced order zone-level model for different operating conditions and room layouts.

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