scholarly journals Mathematical models as practical tool for road fatalities forecasts on road network in regions

2018 ◽  
Vol 231 ◽  
pp. 01018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Wachnicka
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
National Data ◽  
Local Characteristics ◽  
Practical Tool

The analysis of national data on the number of deaths showed that in Poland from 2010 to 2016 it was possible to reduce the number of fatalities by about 22%. The tendency of changes in the number of fatalities, however, is not homogeneous. When data of individual voivodships is analyzed, the situation is different. The largest reduction in fatalities in the analyzed period of time concerned voivodship Świętokrzyskie, where there was more than 45% drop in the number of fatalities. The following voivodships: Łódzkie, Lubelskie and Podkarpackie recorded a decrease in over 30% of fatalities. Unfortunately, at the end of the classification there were four voivodships with a fall below 8%, and what is disturbing voivodship Lubuskie recorded a nearly 5% increase in the number of fatalities. The current traffic safety management at the level of voivodships is often the implementation of central recommendations, which, as results from the analysis of statistical data, are not equally effective in every province. Therefore, models for forecasting changes in road safety are required. Taking into account local characteristics and implemented actions can be used to manage security more effectively at the regional level. This paper presents examples of the use of mathematical models to predict the number of fatalities in individual voivodships depending on the adopted action scenarios. Regression models were developed, taking into account demographic, infrastructural, economic and automotive factors. It turned out that in individual voivodships, various factors affect the level of road safety on roads differently. Therefore, an individual approach to each voivodship is important in order to reliably forecast the level of security.

ACCIDENT ANALYSIS – THE WAY TO EFFECTIVE TRAFFIC SAFETY MANAGEMENT ON ROADS

2021 ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
Tetiana Bondar ◽  
Olga Belenchuk ◽  
Yevhen Tepliuk ◽  
Oleksandr Pyna
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Maximum Efficiency ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
The Road ◽  
On The Road

Road safety management begins with a detailed analysis of accidents, which is reflected in Article 24 of the Law of Ukraine “On Road Traffic” which states that when performing repairs and maintenance of roads, streets and railway crossings road maintenance organizations in the first place should take measures for road safety on the basis of accounting and analysis of road accidents, results of inspections and surveys of roads, streets and railway crossings, and especially in emergency and dangerous areas and in places of concentration of road accidents. The problem of reducing the accident rate and reducing the number of victims of road accidents during the maintenance of roads has so far been solved mainly by identifying areas (places) of concentration of accidents with the development of measures to improve road conditions and improve the organization of traffic on them and conducting annual commission spring and autumn inspections of the road network by representatives of road organizations and the police. However, the areas of concentration of road accidents were not fully covered on the road network of local significance due to the lack of accurate reference of the places of accident in the accident registration cards, as well as they were not identified on the streets and roads of cities and other settlements due to the absence of any criteria for their identification and therefore the maximum efficiency from introduction of management of sites (places) of concentration of road accident isn’t reached. The article analyzes the criteria for determining the areas of concentration of accidents on public roads in different periods, examines the dynamics of the number of areas of concentration of accidents and considers other modern opportunities for effective traffic safety management, in particular, inspection (inspection) of existing roads.

scholarly journals Improvement of the traffic safety system

2021 ◽  
Vol 334 ◽  
pp. 01015
Author(s):  
Ksenia Shubenkova ◽  
Aleksey Boyko ◽  
Gulnara Yakupova ◽  
Kirill Magdin
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Initial Information ◽  
The Road ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The City ◽  
Haddon Matrix ◽  
Transport Management

Increase of the road safety is the main goal in the sphere of transport management. Authors state that the decision-making process should be based on the analysis of statistical data on the violations, traffic reasons of accidents and problem areas. Official statistics of the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate is used as an initial information. As a method to determine factors influencing the traffic safety, the so-called Haddon matrix was used. Efficiency of the proposed recommendations is analyzed from the viewpoint of their role in the process of ensuring safety and sustainability of the city transport system.

scholarly journals Algorithm for detecting outliers in the model uniformly fuzzy regression

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-35
Author(s):  
Igor V. Ponomarev
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Fuzzy Regression

When constructing mathematical models based on statistical data, the researcher faces the need to assess the homogeneity of the sample, in particular, the study of data on emissions. Availability in a sample of outliers negatively affects the modeling results and the adequacy of the model as a whole. In this work, an algorithm has been developed that allows one to quantitatively measure the effect of the influence of each observation on the quality of the constructed model. The description of this algorithm is given. Previously the author carried out similar studies for various regression models.

scholarly journals Fuzzy modeling of the road traffic hazard level

2021 ◽  
Vol 341 ◽  
pp. 00023
Author(s):  
Elena Pechatnova ◽  
Vasily Kuznetsov ◽  
Kirill Safronov
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Fuzzy Modeling ◽  
Rule Base ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Road ◽  
Target Values ◽  
Hazard Level

The article is devoted to the author's concept development of the short-term road safety management on the federal roads in Russia. The results of development the rule for calculating hazard level depending on the road accidents risk are presented. The mathematical basis of the research is fuzzy modeling. The main stages of modeling are performed using the FisPro software. The concept of acceptable risk has been implemented based on the target values of state programs to improve traffic safety. The developed rule base is the basis for determining the hazard level, which can be the basis for calculating the main parameter of short-term road safety management – the hazard level.

scholarly journals Selected Aspects of the Road Traffic Safety Management System

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. F33-F42
Author(s):  
Monika Stoma ◽  
Jacek Caban ◽  
Agnieszka Dudziak ◽  
Andrzej Kuranc
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Management System ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Safety Management System ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Traffic Safety ◽  
The Impact

The article is an attempt to present the two modern concepts of safety management systems. The first is the sunflower pyramid used especially in Europe, the second is the ISO 39001 standard (Road Safety Management System) of international scope. The idea and possibilities offered by use of both concepts of safety management, as well as an attempt to assess the impact of their actions on decrease in fatalities in selected EU countries, were presented. As a result of the conducted analyses, a downward trend was noted as to the number of certificates issued for compliance with the ISO 39001 standard in the world, which may indicate an appearance of the more adequate management systems, or other tools or concepts to improve the road safety, or inadequate education society and low level of awareness in this area of stakeholders, including politicians, scientists, producers, drivers (professional and reliable), as well as other road users, including unprotected ones.

ANALYSIS OF SEASONAL CHANGES OF ACCIDENT LEVEL ON THE ROADS OF STATE IMPORTANCE AND THEIR IMPACT ON ROAD ACCIDENTS STATISTICS

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (24) ◽  
pp. 169-176
Author(s):  
Evgen Minenko ◽  
◽  
Olexiy Petrashenko ◽  
Roman Efymenko ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Accident Statistics ◽  
Level Analysis

In the modern world, where more and more vehicles appear every day, the issue of traffic safety is becoming more acute. The most prospective method of traffic safety management, on our opinion, is the analysis of statistical data on road accidents (hereinafter accidents), which allows to determine the accident levele, causes of accidents, evaluate the effectiveness of implemented measures to improve traffic safety and more. As the main task of traffic safety ensuring is to reduce accident level and severity of the accidents consequences, and especially to reduce accidents with fatalities to a minimum, the analysis of accident statistics data plays a key role and is an integral part of a comprehensive approach to solve the issue of the traffic safety management. Qualitative analysis of accidents by various indicators allows determining the main causes that impact on the occurrence of accidents and the severity of their consequences. This article considers the formation of characteristics of seasonal changes in accident level on the network of state roads of Ukraine. The study allows identifying the features and patterns of annual dynamics of road accidents with the definition of monthly maximum and determining the features of seasonal stability of accident level indexes. Taking into account the seasonal variability of the accident level allows rationally planning the activities of transport organizations directed on preventing road accidents and reducing the severity of their consequences. Keywords: accident level, analysis of seasonal changes of accident level, traffic safety, statistics of road accidents.

scholarly journals Application of the GWR Model for Predicting the Road Fatalities Rate on the Road Network in the Nuts 3 Regions in Europe on the Example of Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 215-236
Author(s):  
Joanna Wachnicka ◽  
Katarzyna Palikowska
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Traffic Safety ◽  
Geographically Weighted Regression Model ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
Gwr Model

AbstractThe article presents the application of the GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression) model to the description of differences in the level of road traffic safety in individual counties on the example of the Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship. The GWR model developed for counties, taking into account the diversity of NUTS 3 regions, can be a helpful tool for traffic safety management in voivodships and lower administrative units, and such an approach has not yet been applied.

scholarly journals Środki działające podobnie do alkoholu a aspekty bezpieczeństwa w ruchu drogowym na terenie Pomorza Zachodniego*

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Potocka-Banaś ◽  
Michał Wojtyś ◽  
Tomasz Banaś ◽  
Urszula Semeniuk ◽  
Krzysztof Borowiak
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Simultaneous Increase ◽  
Technological Condition ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Blood Samples ◽  
Road Users ◽  
Medical University

ABSTRACTIntroduction: Nowadays automotive transport is the basis for the efficient functioning of society, thus road safety, which is dependent on many factors such as the technological condition of roads, weather or traffic regulations, has a substantial impact on its performance. It should also be emphasized that traffic safety depends primarily on the mental psycho-organic status of drivers.The presented retrospective study describes drugs and medicines known to act similarly to ethanol, and which can be detected in the blood of drivers.The study aimed to analyze statistical data on driver blood samples that were tested for the presence of substances acting like ethanol. The analysis focused on samples collected in the period 2011–2015 in the West Pomeranian province in Poland.Materials and methods: During the analyzed period, more than 3069 of toxicological tests were performed on driver blood samples at the Department of Clinical Toxicology and Forensic Medicine of the Pomeranian Medical University in Szczecin (Poland).Results: Based on the blood test results obtained in the period 2011–2015, the studies revealed the presence of substances acting like ethanol: 9delta-tetrahydrocannabinol (9ΔTHC), amphetamine, methamphetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, cocaine, opiates and benzodiazepines. Moreover, the percentage of drivers whose blood samples revealed the presence of such substances increased steadily along with the simultaneous increase in the percentage of road users under the influence of the detected substance.Within the analysis, the presence of 9ΔTHC in the blood of dri­vers decreased from 80.45% to 44.13%, whilst the percentage of drivers with the presence of amphetamines increased from 16.43% to 46.85%, and was the most commonly detected psychoactive substance in 2015.Conclusions: The percentage of drivers whose blood samples revealed the presence of opiates, cocaine and benzodiazepines in the analyzed period remained at a constant low level of 5.24% in contrast to the number of drivers detected with amphetamines or 9ΔTHC.

scholarly journals Inclusive road infrastructure safety management in the settlement: An approach to improving the safety of vulnerable road users

Tehnika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (6) ◽  
pp. 777-781
Author(s):  
Milenko Čabarkapa
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Road Users ◽  
Vulnerable Road Users

In the last ten years, there has been a stabilization of traffic fatalities on the roads of the world. At the same time, the death toll of persons in the armor of vehicles was reduced, and the death toll of persons outside the armor of vehicles-vulnerable road users continued to grow. The most endangered are motorcyclists, then pedestrians and finally cyclists, both in developed countries of the European Union and in underdeveloped and developing countries. Lagging behind in reducing the fatalities of vulnerable road users requires innovation in research and the creation and implementation of new road safety management policies. In this aspect, inclusive road infrastructure safety management in the settlement can be a paradigm for the introduction and implementation of protection of vulnerable road users, persons with reduced mobility and persons with disabilities, through procedures to control road safety in the settlement, at all stages of the road life cycle: planning, design, construction and exploitation. The content of inclusive road infrastructure safety management in the settlement should include all areas of activity and all elements of the roads of the settlement, the improvement of which can raise the level of traffic safety of all users, so that the roads of the settlement are equally safe for all road users. At the same time, the risk of fatal traffic accidents on the roads of the settlement is indirectly exponentially related to the scope of the content of inclusive road infrastructure safety management in the settlement.

scholarly journals Implementation of modern tools for the improvement of the road infrastructure on the Trans-European road network – road safety inspection (RSI)

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-53
Author(s):  
Miladin Nešić ◽  
Dušan Mladenović ◽  
Mirjana Ilić ◽  
Ivana Andrijanić ◽  
Mirko Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Black Spot ◽  
Pilot Project ◽  
Road Accident ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
The Road ◽  
The Law ◽  
On The Road

The European Directive on the Road Infrastructure Safety Improvement (2008/96/EC) has established the implementation of appropriate procedures as the basic tools for improving the road infrastructure on the trans-European road network. The Law on Roads (2018) prescribes the implementation of the following procedures: Road safety impact assessment; Road safety audit; Road safety inspection; Risk mapping; Black spot identification; and In depth road accident studies. The Law on Roads also prescribes that the Minister will prescribe the manner of implementation and the contents of the Evaluation, Audit and Independent Assessment reports, as well as the manner of determining the major risk portions and the identification and ranking of hazardous sites (black spots). Since the method of implementation and the content of the report are not yet prescribed, the authors contributed in this paper to defining the manner of implementation and content of the traffic safety report on the example of the section of the highway, as the highest category of state road. In the framework of the training of auditors and auditors, among others, a pilot project was carried out for the safety of traffic on the part of the E-75 (A1) highway, about 2,7 km ahead of the Mali Požarevac loop, including the loop. The verified part of the highway also includes a ramp with a toll ramp, service facility, overpass, bridge, etc., so the selected checked part is representative for defining a recommendation for the mode of implementation and the model for the preparation of the report.

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