scholarly journals Analysis of trading volume and its use in prediction future price movements in the process of maximizing trading earnings

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 02010
Author(s):  
Jan Chutka ◽  
Filip Rebetak
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Theoretical Data ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Valuable Contribution ◽  
Innovative Method ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Trading Volumes

Research background: When we start looking for tools that could give a trader a certain trading advantage, we will certainly come across the problem of analysing the trading volume. This is an advanced type of analysis where the primary price chart of the underlying asset is not analysed, but traders focus on the volume of trades that have been executed at certain price levels. Although it may seem like an innovative method, this type of analysis has been used for several decades. In our article, we elaborated the theoretical basis of the analysis of trading volume as a tool for predicting the movement of prices of financial instruments. Purpose of the article: The aim of our article is to explore the possibilities, methods and procedures of analysis of trading volumes and the possibilities of their use in maximizing earnings from trading of financial instruments. Methods: We used formal methods such as analysis and synthesis of theoretical findings and others. Findings & Value added: Based on the study of the analysis and synthesis of theoretical data, we identified and described the possibilities of using the analysis of trading volume in the process of predicting the price movements of financial instruments. We consider the aim of the article to be fulfilled and we believe that it will be a valuable contribution in the field of research on this issue.

The Establishment of the Forecasting Model for Regime Switching in Time Series

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-99
Author(s):  
Geun Gwan Lyu ◽  
Gi Beom Bin ◽  
Yeong Jo Lee ◽  
Seong Jun Jo
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Investment Performance ◽  
The Past ◽  
Elapsed Time ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Price Movements

Efficient market hypothesis implies that the past price movements do not help forecast future price movements. Thus, it is impossible to consistently benefit by a technical trading strategy. On the other hand, technical analysts claim that the historical price movements are useful in predicting future price movements. These two lines of arguments are mutually contradictory. This paper reasonably assumes that the more efficient markets are, the worse will be the investment performance of technical analysis, and that as financial market‘s trading volume grows and with the elapse of time, the efficiency of markets should improve. This implies that after the launch of a new financial asset, market efficiency would improve with increased trading and elapsed time. In this paper, the duration analysis technique is used as a forecasting model and applied to measure the efficiency of Korean futures market and the won/dollar exchange rate market.

scholarly journals Stock market prediction using technical analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 51 (170) ◽  
pp. 125-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Bradic-Martinovic
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Wave Theory ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Price Movements

Technical analysis (TA) is a form of analyzing market encompassing supply and demand of securities according to the study of their prices and trading volume. Using the appropriate methods, TA aims to identify price movements in the stock market, futures or currencies. In short, TA analysis is the process by which "future price movements are formulated according to the price history". TA originates from the work of Charles Dow and his conclusions about the global behavior of the market, as well as from Elliot Wave Theory. Dow did not regard its theory as a tool for stock market movement prediction, nor as a guide for investors, but as a kind of barometer of general market movements. The term TA methods encompasses all the methods used in tracking prices aiming to clearly predict future events. Many different methods, mainly statistical, are used in technical analysis, the most popular ones being: establishing and following trends using moving average, recognizing price momentum, calculating indicators and oscillators, as well as cycle analysis (structure indicators). It is also necessary to point out that TA is not a science in the true meaning of the term, and that methods it uses frequently deviate from the conventional manner of their use. The main advantage of these methods is their relative ease of use, aiming to give as clear picture as possible of price movements, while at the same time avoiding the use of complicated and complex mathematical methods. The reason for this is simple and is reflected in the dynamics of financial markets, where changes occur during short periods of time and where prompt decision-making is of vital importance.

scholarly journals Global financial market and tools for its prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 03030
Author(s):  
Tetyana Vasylieva ◽  
Jan Chutka
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
History Of ◽  
Volume Profile ◽  
The Given

Research background: In today’s modern world, we can constantly observe turbulent changes in every aspect of human life. These changes have also affected the area of financial markets, where we can identify a gigantic shift in the last few decades. In our article, we focused on the issue of trading in financial markets, the history of trading in contrast to the current situation, but especially the tool for predicting future price movements of financial instruments. In our article, we dealt with the issue of financial markets, their development and prediction tools. Purpose of the article: The aim of our article was to provide a brief overview of the path that the financial markets area has taken in the recent past to the present day. Methods: We used formal methods such as analysis and synthesis of theoretical findings and others. Findings & Value added: Based on the above-mentioned methods, we developed a clear framework for the development of financial markets, forecasting tools and specified the volume profile method and identified its strong relationship to the functioning of financial markets and the auction process itself. We consider the goal of the paper to be fulfilled and we believe it will bring a certain benefit of research in the given area.

MOMENTUM OSCILLATORS - A TOOL TO PREDICT STOCK PRICE BEHAVIOUR

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shishir Kumar Gujrati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Range Data ◽  
Strength Index ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Price Movements

Stock markets are always taken as the barometer of the economy. The price movement of their indices reflects every ups and downs of the economy. Although seem to be random, these price movements do follow a certain track which can be identified using appropriate tool over long range data. One such method is of Technical Analysis wherein future price trends are forecasted using past data. Momentum Oscillators are the important tools of technical analysis. The current paper aims to identify the previous price movements of sensex by using Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) tools and also aims to check whether these tools are appropriate in forecasting the price trends or not.

scholarly journals The Influence of Trading Volume, Market Trend, and Monetary Policy on Characteristics of the Chinese Stock Exchange: An Econophysics Perspective

Open Physics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 985-998
Author(s):  
Meng Ran ◽  
Zhenpeng Tang ◽  
Weihong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Cycles ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Healthy Growth

Abstract The paper adopts the financial physics approach to investigate influence of trading volume, market trend, as well as monetary policy on characteristics of the Chinese Stock Exchange. Utilizing 1-minute high-frequency data at various time intervals, the study examines the probability distribution density, autocorrelation and multi-fractal of the Shanghai Composite Index. Our study finds that the scale of trading volume, stock market trends, and monetary policy cycles all exert significant influences on micro characteristics of Shanghai Composite Index. More specifically, under the conditions of large trading volumes, loose monetary policies, and downward stock trends, the market possesses better fitting on Levy’s distribution, the volatility self-correlation is stronger, and multifractal trait is more salient. We hope our study could provide better guidance for investment decisions, and form the basis for policy formulation aiming for a healthy growth of the financial market.

scholarly journals Transformation of Inferior Tomato into Preservative: Fermentation by Multi-Bacteriocin Producing Lactobacillus paracasei WX322

Foods ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1278
Author(s):  
Rong Zhu ◽  
Xiaoqing Liu ◽  
Xiaofen Li ◽  
Kaifang Zeng ◽  
Lanhua Yi
Keyword(s):  
Antibacterial Activity ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Soft Rot ◽  
Bacteriocin Production ◽  
Lactobacillus Paracasei ◽  
Tomato Juice ◽  
Vegetable Waste ◽  
The Third ◽  
Innovative Method ◽  
Great Damage

Loss and waste of postharvest vegetables are the main challenges facing the world’s vegetable supply. In this study, an innovative method of value-added transformation was provided: production of bacteriocin from vegetable waste, and then its application to preservation of vegetables. Antibacterial activity to soft rot pathogen Pectobacterium cartovorum (Pcb BZA12) indicated that tomato performed best in the nutrition supply for bacteriocin production among 12 tested vegetables. Moreover, the antibacterial activity was from Lactobacillus paracasei WX322, not components of vegetables. During a fermentation period of 10 days in tomato juice, L. paracasei WX322 grew well and antibacterial activity reached the maximum on the tenth day. Thermostability and proteinase sensitivity of the bacteriocin from tomato juice were the same with that from Man-Rogosa-Sharpe broth. Scanning electron microscope images indicated that the bacteriocin from tomato juice caused great damage to Pcb BZA12. At the same time, the bacteriocin from tomato juice significantly reduced the rotten rate of Chinese cabbage from 100% ± 0% to 20% ± 8.16% on the third day during storage. The rotten rate decrease of cucumber, tomato, and green bean was 100% ± 0% to 0% ± 0%, 70% ± 14.14% to 13.33% ± 9.43%, and 76.67% ± 4.71% to 26.67% ± 4.71%, respectively. Bacteriocin treatment did not reduce the rotten rate of balsam pear, but alleviated its symptoms.

Disposition effect at the market level: evidence from Indian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-82
Author(s):  
Sravani Bharandev ◽  
Sapar Narayan Rao
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Abnormal Trading Volume ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the disposition effect at market level and propose an appropriate reference point for testing disposition at market level. Design/methodology/approach This is an empirical study conducted on 500 index stocks of NSE500 (National Stock Exchange). Winning and losing days for each stock are calculated using 52-week high and low prices as reference points. To test disposition effect, abnormal trading volumes of stocks are regressed on their percentage of winning (losing) days. Further using ANOVA, the difference between mean of percentage of winning (losing) days of high abnormal trading volume deciles and low abnormal trading volume deciles is tested. Findings Results show that a stock’s abnormal trading volume is positively influenced by the percentage of winning days whereas percentage of losing days show no such effect. Findings are consistent even after controlling for volatility and liquidity. ANOVA results show the presence of high percentage of winning days in higher deciles of abnormal trading volumes and no such pattern in case of losing days confirms the presence of disposition effect. Further an ex post analysis indicates that disposition prone investors accumulate losses. Originality/value This is the first study, which proposes the use of 52-week high and low prices as reference points to test the market-level disposition effect. Findings of this study enhance the limited literature available on disposition effect in emerging markets by providing evidence from Indian stock markets.

scholarly journals “Deliverology” and Evaluation: A Tale of Two Worlds

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Birch ◽  
Steve Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Public Management ◽  
New Public Management ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Innovative Method ◽  
New Public ◽  
Permanent Campaign ◽  
And Performance ◽  
New Policies ◽  
Political Governance ◽  
Evidence Based Decision Making

In recent years, the new political governance, a partisan model that contributes to a permanent campaign, gained ground in public organizations. In this new context, “deliverology” is portrayed as an innovative method to help governments implement new policies and deliver on election promises. This article presents the similarities and diff erences that exist between “deliverology” and evaluation. Is deliverology really something new or is it another case of old wine in a new bottle? Is deliverology a substitute for or, instead, a complement to institutionalized evaluation? To what extent does new political governance (exemplified by deliverology and performance measurement) undermine evidence-based decision making? What is the value-added of deliverology? These questions are addressed through a critical reflection on deliverology and its value-added in Canada, where evaluation became institutionalized in many departments and agencies under the influence of results-based management, promoted by the advocates of new public management over four decades.r four decades.

scholarly journals PENGARUH TOTAL ASSET TURN OVER, RETURN ON ASSET DAN RETURN ON EQUITY TERHADAP ACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTION LINE

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luna Haningsih ◽  
Zulkifli Zulkifli ◽  
Caturida Meiwanto Doktoralina
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Technical Analysis ◽  
Total Asset ◽  
Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Asset Turnover ◽  
Distribution Line ◽  
Price Movements

Fundamental and technical analysis is used by analysis to predict the trend ofstock price and trading volume. Studies conducted aimed to determine the effect of fundamental analysis to technical analysis. Combining two forms of analysis can produce a more accurate prediction of the stock price movement of listed cement companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Research experts indicate that the fundamental and technical analysis can be used independently with the ability to predict stock price movements. This study combines both analysis in a model that can provide a more robust predictive capability in the Company's share price movements of cement. Fundamental analysis is the economy wide scope, one of the predictions of financial performance. In this study the total asset turnover, return on assets and return on equityto determine which stocks are pretty good. While technical analysis is usedaccumulation distribution line that has a better ability to predict future stock prices because the data contained technical stock price and trading volume to determine when to buy and sell momentum. These results indicate that the total asset turnover, return on assets and return on equity significantly influence the accumulation distribution line. While the individual that the return on equity has no significant effect. The results of this study are expected to improve knowledge for the readers, especially investors in order to obtain optimal benefits.

scholarly journals Trading Volume as a Predictor of Market Movement

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-69
Author(s):  
Edson Kambeu
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Popular Language

A logistic regression model is has also become a popular model because of its ability to predict, classify and draw relationships between a dichotomous dependent variable and dependent variables. On the other hand, the R programming language has become a popular language for building and implementing predictive analytics models. In this paper, we apply a logistic regression model in the R environment in order to examine whether daily trading volume at the Botswana Stock Exchange influence daily stock market movement. Specifically, we use a logistic regression model to find the relationship between daily stock movement and the trading volumes experienced in the recent five previous trading days. Our results show that only the trading volume for the third previous day influence current stock market index movement. Overall, trading volumes of the past five days were found not have an impact on today’s stock market movement. The results can be used as a basis for building a predictive model that utilizes trading as a predictor of stock market movement.

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