scholarly journals Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktar Dudzich
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Currency Crises

scholarly journals Predicting Currency Crises: A Novel Approach Combining Random Forests and Wavelet Transform

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Xu ◽  
Takuji Kinkyo ◽  
Shigeyuki Hamori
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Variable Importance Measures ◽  
High Level

We propose a novel approach that combines random forests and the wavelet transform to model the prediction of currency crises. Our classification model of random forests, built using both standard predictors and wavelet predictors, and obtained from the wavelet transform, achieves a demonstrably high level of predictive accuracy. We also use variable importance measures to find that wavelet predictors are key predictors of crises. In particular, we find that real exchange rate appreciation and overvaluation, which are measured over a horizon of 16–32 months, are the most important.

scholarly journals THE DETERMINANTS OF FDI IN SIX FORMER FSU COUNTRIES: A STUDY OF DATA 1995–2017

2020 ◽  
pp. 140-181
Author(s):  
Vijay SHENAI ◽  
Artem SHCHERBYNA ◽  
Sergei VORONIN ◽  
Dmitriy OLKHOVSKYY
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Income Levels ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Line ◽  
Determinants Of Fdi

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can bring in much needed capital, particularly in emerging markets, help improve manufacturing and trade sectors, bring in more efficient technologies, increase local production and exports, create jobs and develop local skills, bring about improvements in soft and hard infrastructure and overall be a contributor to sustainable economic growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). With all these desirable features, it becomes relevant to ascertain the factors which attract FDI to an economy or a group of adjacent economies. This paper explores the determinants of FDI in six Former Soviet Union (FSU): Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Russia, Moldova and Kazakhstan. After an extensive literature review of theories and empirical research and using a set of cross-sectional data over the period 1995–2017, an ARDL model is estimated with FDI/GDP as the dependent variable. Inflation, exchange rate changes, openness, economy size (GDP), Income levels (GNI per capita), Infrastructure (measured by the number of fixed line and mobile subscription per 100 persons) are tested as independent variables for explanatory power in long run and short run relationships. Over the period, higher inflows of FDI in relation to GDP appear to be have been attracted to the markets with better infrastructure, smaller markets and higher income levels, with lower openness, depreciation in the exchange rate and higher income levels though the coefficients of the last three variables are not significant. The results show the type of FDI attracted to investments in this region and are evaluated from theoretical and practical view points. Policy recommendations are made to enhance FDI inflows and further economic development in this region. Such a study of this region has not been made in the past. JEL: C21, F21, F23.

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Currency Crises

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-362
Author(s):  
Unggul Heriqbaldi ◽  
Wahyu Widodo ◽  
Dian Ekowati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Exchange Rate Misalignment

A (ECONOPHYSICS) NOTE ON VOLATILITY IN EXCHANGE RATE TIME SERIES

2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (07) ◽  
pp. 1095-1103 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID MATESANZ ◽  
GUILLERMO J. ORTEGA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
The Real ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Entropy Measures ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Dynamics

We propose a volatility and uncertainty country ranking based on the entropic analysis of the real exchange rate dynamics. We show that this ranking is highly correlated with the volatility in the gross domestic product after events of currency crises. By comparing entropy with variance ranking we demonstrate that entropy measures better volatility effects of crises.

Successes and Failures of Industrial Policy in Transition Economies of Europe and Asia

2020 ◽  
pp. 778-810
Author(s):  
Vladimir Popov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Very High Energy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This chapter discusses the achievements and failures of various models of industrial policy in post-communist countries. If industrial policy is needed, how are industries that have to be supported to be selected? What are the appropriate tools/instruments to support particular industries? Eastern European countries in general did not have any explicit industrial policy, either via tax concessions and/or subsidies, or via under/overpricing the exchange rate. Many countries of the former Soviet Union carried out large import-substitution programmes through the regulation of domestic fuel and energy prices (directly and via export tax) that subsidized all energy consumers. They also provided subsidies to agricultural enterprises. China and Vietnam (and to some extent Uzbekistan) carried out export-oriented industrial policy mostly by underpricing the exchange rate. It is argued that export-oriented industrial policy via undervaluation of the exchange rate is the best possible option to promote export-oriented catch-up development based on the export of manufactured goods. It is especially needed for resource-rich countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) that are prone to ‘Dutch disease’. Assistance to domestic producers by keeping domestic prices for fuel and energy low also helps to stimulate growth, but at the cost of very high energy intensity.

Marital Stability Among Jewish and Mixed Couples Following Immigration to Israel From the Former Soviet Union

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoav Lavee ◽  
Ludmila Krivosh
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Cultural Identity ◽  
Social Adjustment ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Marital Stability ◽  
Marital Instability ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Mixed Marriages ◽  
Marital Outcomes ◽  
Jewish Immigrants

This research aims to identify factors associated with marital instability among Jewish and mixed (Jewish and non-Jewish) couples following immigration from the former Soviet Union. Based on the Strangeness Theory and the Model of Acculturation, we predicted that non-Jewish immigrants would be less well adjusted personally and socially to Israeli society than Jewish immigrants and that endogamous Jewish couples would have better interpersonal congruence than mixed couples in terms of personal and social adjustment. The sample included 92 Jewish couples and 92 ethnically-mixed couples, of which 82 couples (40 Jewish, 42 mixed) divorced or separated after immigration and 102 couples (52 Jewish, 50 ethnically mixed) remained married. Significant differences were found between Jewish and non-Jewish immigrants in personal adjustment, and between endogamous and ethnically-mixed couples in the congruence between spouses in their personal and social adjustment. Marital instability was best explained by interpersonal disparity in cultural identity and in adjustment to life in Israel. The findings expand the knowledge on marital outcomes of immigration, in general, and immigration of mixed marriages, in particular.

The Contribution of Pavlov's Typology of CNS Properties to Personality Research

1997 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Strelau
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Animal Species ◽  
Special Significance ◽  
The West ◽  
Personality Dimensions ◽  
Personality Research ◽  
Personality Theories ◽  
Strength Of Excitation ◽  
Point Of Departure

This paper presents Pavlov's contribution to the development of biological-oriented personality theories. Taking a short description of Pavlov's typology of central nervous system (CNS) properties as a point of departure, it shows how, and to what extent, this typology influenced further research in the former Soviet Union as well as in the West. Of special significance for the development of biologically oriented personality dimensions was the conditioned reflex paradigm introduced by Pavlov for studying individual differences in dogs. This paradigm was used by Russian psychologists in research on types of nervous systems conducted in different animal species as well as for assessing temperament in children and adults. Also, personality psychologists in the West, such as Eysenck, Spence, and Gray, incorporated the CR paradigm into their theories. Among the basic properties of excitation and inhibition on which Pavlov's typology was based, strength of excitation and the basic indicator of this property, protective inhibition, gained the highest popularity in arousaloriented personality theories. Many studies have been conducted in which the Pavlovian constructs of CNS properties have been related to different personality dimensions. In current research the behavioral expressions of the Pavlovian constructs of strength of excitation, strength of inhibition, and mobility of nervous processes as measured by the Pavlovian Temperament Survey (PTS) have been related to over a dozen of personality dimensions, mostly referring to temperament.

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