Modelling Future Urban Scenarios in Developing Countries: An Application Case Study in Lagos, Nigeria

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
José I Barredo ◽  
Luca Demicheli ◽  
Carlo Lavalle ◽  
Marjo Kasanko ◽  
Niall McCormick
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Urban System ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Measured Time ◽  
High Level

We consider urban sustainability issues in developing countries, with a focus on urban growth. The need for urban management tools that are able to provide prospective scenarios is addressed. Urban simulations can represent a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current planning policies—or their incompleteness. Nevertheless, simulations of future urban growth are usually quite difficult without tools which embrace the complexity of the urban system. We describe an urban-growth simulation for the city of Lagos in Nigeria, in which an urban cellular automata (CA) prototype is used. We propose a bottom-up approach which integrates land-use factors with the dynamic approach of CA for modelling future urban land-use scenarios. The model for Lagos was calibrated and tested with the aid of measured time-series data on land use, through a set of spatial metrics and κ-coefficients. A twenty-year simulation, until 2020, was run. The simulation results are realistic and achieve a high level of detail, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed model.

scholarly journals An Evaluation of the Determinants of Remittances: Evidence from Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Temitope Laniran ◽  
◽  
Daniel Adeniyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
High Level

International remittances have grown to become an integral source of finance for development. Existing literature posits that there is an association between remittances and growth in developing countries. Economic growth models highlight the importance of capital accumulation and high level financial flows, the inadequacy of which characterizes developing countries and often explains their fate. It is argued that remittances will provide a panacea to the serious poverty experienced in such developing economies by increasing financial flows and household income, which in turn stimulates consumption, savings, economic growth and ultimately development. The robustness of this relationship is, however, often questioned. Indeed, the propensity of remittances to achieve these aspirations very much hinges on the determining factors motivating the remitters and the magnitude of the remittances. Hence, given the significant flows of remittances to the developing countries, this study attempts an analysis of the determinants of remittances to Nigeria. Key macroeconomic variables with theoretical potentials of influencing the level of remittances received were subjected to econometric model testing using time series data from 1980 to 2013. The results indicate that the level of remittances received is more a function of portfolio motives than other macroeconomic factors.

scholarly journals Optimization of a Novel Urban Growth Simulation Model Integrating an Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm and Cellular Automata for a Smart City

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2338
Author(s):  
Xinxin Huang ◽  
Gang Xu ◽  
Fengtao Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Smart City ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Growth Simulation ◽  
Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm ◽  
Artificial Fish Swarm ◽  
Ca Model

As one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, it is sensible to analysis historical urban land use characteristics and project the potentials of urban sustainable development for a smart city. The cellular automaton (CA) model is the widely applied in simulating urban growth, but the optimum parameters of variables driving urban growth in the model remains to be continued to improve. We propose a novel model integrating an artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA) and CA for optimizing parameters of variables in the urban growth model and make a comparison between AFSA-CA and other five models, which is used to study a 40-year urban land growth of Wuhan. We found that the urban growth types from 1995 to 2015 appeared relatively consistent, mainly including infilling, edge-expansion and distant-leap types in Wuhan, which a certain range of urban land growth on the periphery of the central area. Additionally, although the genetic algorithms (GA)-CA model and the AFSA-CA model among the six models due to the distance variables, the parameter value of the GA-CA model is −15.5409 according to the fact that the population (POP) variable should be positively. As a result, the AFSA-CA model regardless of the initial parameter setting is superior to the GA-CA model and the GA-CA model is superior to all the other models. Finally, it is projected that the potentials of urban growth in Wuhan for 2025 and 2035 under three scenarios (natural urban land growth without any restrictions (NULG), sustainable urban land growth with cropland protection and ecological security (SULG), and economic urban land growth with sustainable development and economic development in the core area (EULG)) focus mainly on existing urban land and some new town centers based on AFSA-CA urban growth simulation model. An increasingly precise simulation can determine the potential increase area and quantity of urban land, providing a basis to judge the layout of urban land use for urban planners.

scholarly journals Multiscale Sample Entropy of Two-Dimensional Decaying Turbulence

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 245
Author(s):  
Ildoo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Soap Film ◽  
Sample Entropy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Entropy Analysis ◽  
Measured Time ◽  
Energetic Analysis ◽  
Turbulence Data ◽  
Decaying Turbulence

Multiscale sample entropy analysis has been developed to quantify the complexity and the predictability of a time series, originally developed for physiological time series. In this study, the analysis was applied to the turbulence data. We measured time series data for the velocity fluctuation, in either the longitudinal or transverse direction, of turbulent soap film flows at various locations. The research was to assess the feasibility of using the entropy analysis to qualitatively characterize turbulence, without using any conventional energetic analysis of turbulence. The study showed that the application of the entropy analysis to the turbulence data is promising. From the analysis, we successfully captured two important features of the turbulent soap films. It is indicated that the turbulence is anisotropic from the directional disparity. In addition, we observed that the most unpredictable time scale increases with the downstream distance, which is an indication of the decaying turbulence.

scholarly journals Modeling Past, Present, and Future Urban Growth Impacts on Primary Agricultural Land in Greater Irbid Municipality, Jordan Using SLEUTH (1972–2050)

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 212
Author(s):  
Rana N. Jawarneh
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Area ◽  
Grand Challenge ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Urban Growth Model ◽  
Rate Of Increase

Urban expansion and loss of primarily agricultural land are two of the challenges facing Jordan. Located in the most productive agricultural area of Jordan, Greater Irbid Municipality (GIM) uncontrolled urban growth has posed a grand challenge in both sustaining its prime croplands and developing comprehensive planning strategies. This study investigated the loss of agricultural land for urban growth in GIM from 1972–2050 and denoted the negative consequences of the amalgamation process of 2001 on farmland loss. The aim is to unfold and track historical land use/cover changes and forecast these changes to the future using a modified SLEUTH-3r urban growth model. The accuracy of prediction results was assessed in three different sites between 2015 and 2020. In 43 years the built-up area increased from 29.2 km2 in 1972 to 71 km2 in 2015. By 2050, the built-up urban area would increase to 107 km2. The overall rate of increase, however, showed a decline across the study period, with the periods of 1990–2000 and 2000–2015 having the highest rate of built-up areas expansion at 68.6 and 41.4%, respectively. While the agricultural area increased from 178 km2 in 1972 to 207 km2 in 2000, it decreased to 195 km2 in 2015 and would continue to decrease to 188 km2 by 2050. The district-level analysis shows that from 2000–2015, the majority of districts exhibited an urban increase at twice the rate of 1990–2000. The results of the net change analysis of agriculture show that between 1990 and 2000, 9 districts exhibited a positive gain in agricultural land while the rest of the districts showed a negative loss of agricultural land. From 2000 to 2015, the four districts of Naser, Nozha, Rawdah, and Hashmyah completely lost their agricultural areas for urbanization. By 2050, Idoon and Boshra districts will likely lose more than half of their high-quality agricultural land. This study seeks to utilize a spatially explicit urban growth model to support sustainable planning policies for urban land use through forecasting. The implications from this study confirm the worldwide urbanization impacts on losing the most productive agricultural land in the outskirts and consequences on food production and food security. The study calls for urgent actions to adopt a compact growth policy with no new land added for development as what is available now exceeds what is needed by 2050 to accommodate urban growth in GIM.

Phosphorus and land-use changes are significant drivers of cladoceran community composition and diversity: an analysis over spatial and temporal scales

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (8) ◽  
pp. 1262-1273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Richard Albert ◽  
Guangjie Chen ◽  
Graham K. MacDonald ◽  
Jesse C. Vermaire ◽  
Elena M. Bennett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Community Composition ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Phosphorus Loading ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Phosphorus Concentration ◽  
Total Phosphorus Concentration ◽  
Watershed Disturbance ◽  
Subfossil Cladoceran

We conducted paleolimnological studies over spatial and temporal gradients to define the responses of subfossil cladoceran community composition and diversity to changes in land use and phosphorus concentrations in shallow lakes. We predicted that watershed disturbance by humans, through its impact on water quality, would explain significant variation in cladoceran diversity and composition. Across lakes, water-column total phosphorus concentration was a significant (p < 0.05) predictor of the subfossil cladoceran community composition. Chydorid diversity was also found to be related significantly to phosphorus concentration (r = –0.55, p < 0.05) and the proportion of disturbed land in the watershed (r = –0.47, p < 0.05). However, net load of phosphorus to the watershed rather than proportion of watershed disturbance was a significant predictor of chydorid diversity (r = –0.86, p < 0.001) in our temporal analysis of an eutrophying lake. Given that phosphorus loading to surface waters is often related to phosphorus concentrations in soils, we suggest that the net phosphorus load to the watershed is a more sensitive metric of land-use change and necessary for detecting ecological responses in time series data.

scholarly journals Financial innovation and economic growth: evidence from Zimbabwe

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Bara ◽  
Calvin Mudzingiri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

The role of financial innovation on economic growth in developing countries has not been actively pursued. Stemming from the finance-growth nexus, literature suggests that financial innovation has a relationship to growth, which could be either positive or negative. Implicitly, financial innovation has a good and a dark side that affects growth. This study establishes the causal relationship between financial innovation and economic growth in Zimbabwe empirically. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds tests and Granger causality tests on financial time series data of Zimbabwe for the period 1980-2013, the study finds that financial innovation has a relationship to economic growth that varies depending on the variable used to measure financial innovation. A long-run, growth-driven financial innovationis confirmed, with causality running from economic growth to financial innovation. Bi-directional causality also exists after conditionally netting-off financial development. Policies that enhance economic growth inter-twined with financial innovation are essential, if developing countries, such as Zimbabwe, aim to maximize economic development

scholarly journals Цифровізація розвитку міст: Urban Atlas на основі відкритих даних для міст України

2021 ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
Андрій Юрійович Шелестов ◽  
Алла Миколаївна Лавренюк ◽  
Богдан Ялкапович Яйлимов ◽  
Ганна Олексіївна Яйлимова
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Project Smart ◽  
Unified Algorithm ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Ukraine is an associate member of the European Union and in the coming years it is expected that all data and services already used by EU countries will be available to Ukraine. The lack of quality national products for assessing the development and planning of urban growth makes it impossible to assess the impact of cities on the environment and human health. The first steps to create such products for the cities of Ukraine were initiated within the European project "SMart URBan Solutions for air quality, disasters and city growth" (SMURBS), in which specialists from the Space Research Institute of NAS of Ukraine and SSA of Ukraine received the first city atlas for the Kyiv city, which was similar to the European one. However, the resulting product had significantly fewer types of land use than the European one and therefore the question of improving the developed technology arose. The main purpose of the work is to analyze the existing technology of European service Urban Atlas creation and its improvement by developing a unified algorithm for building an urban atlas using all available open geospatial and satellite data for the cities of Ukraine. The development of such technology is based on our own technology for classifying satellite time series with a spatial resolution of 10 meters to build a land cover map, as well as an algorithm for unifying open geospatial data to urban atlases Copernicus. The technology of construction of the city atlas developed in work, based on the intellectual model of classification of a land cover, can be extended to other cities of Ukraine. In the future, the creation of such a product on the basis of data for different years will allow to assess changes in land use and make a forecast for further urban expansion. The proposed information technology for constructing the city atlas will be useful for assessing the dynamics of urban growth and closely related social and economic indicators of their development. Based on it, it is also possible to assess indicators of achieving the goals of sustainable development, such as 11.3.1 "The ratio of land consumption and population growth." The study shows that the city atlas obtained for the Kyiv city has a high level of quality and has comparable land use classes with European products. It indicates that such a product can be used in government decision-making services.

scholarly journals PENGARUH ZIS (ZAKAT, INFAK, SEDEKAH) DAN ZAKAT FITRAH TERHADAP PENURUNAN KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1998 - 2010

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Jumadin Lapopo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Independent Variables

<p>Poverty is being a problem in all developing countries including Indonesia. Among goverment programs, poverty has become the center offattention in policy at both of the regional and national levels. Looking at thephenomenon of poverty, Islam present with solution to reduce poverty through Zakat. This study aims to analyze the effect of ZIS and Zakat Fitrah against poverty in Indonesia in 1998 until 2010, data used in this study is secondary data and uses time series data, for the dependent variabel is poverty and for independent variables are ZIS and Zakat Fitrah. The analysis tools used in this study is to use multiple regression analysis model and the assumptions of classical test using the software Eviews-4. In this study also concluded that the ZIS variables significantly affect to the reduction of poverty in Indonesia although the effect is very small. In the variable Zakat Fitrah not significantly affect poverty reduction in Indonesia because of the nature of Zakat Fitrah is for consumption and not for long-term needs. The results of this study can be used for the management of zakat to be able to develop the management and to get a better system for distribution of zakat so that the main purpose of zakat can be achieved to reduce poverty.<br />Keywords : Poverty, Zakat Fitrah, ZIS.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Urban Growth on Air Quality in Indian Cities Using Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prakhar Misra ◽  
Ryoichi Imasu ◽  
Wataru Takeuchi
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Pm 2.5 ◽  
Brick Kilns ◽  
Indian Cities

Several studies have found rising ambient particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in urban areas across developing countries. For setting mitigation policies source-contribution is needed, which is calculated mostly through computationally intensive chemical transport models or manpower intensive source apportionment studies. Data based approach that use remote sensing datasets can help reduce this challenge, specially in developing countries which lack spatially and temporally dense air quality monitoring networks. Our objective was identifying relative contribution of urban emission sources to monthly PM 2.5 ambient concentrations and assessing whether urban expansion can explain rise of PM 2.5 ambient concentration from 2001 to 2015 in 15 Indian cities. We adapted the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) emission framework in a land use regression (LUR) model to estimate concentrations by statistically modeling the impact of urban growth on aerosol concentrations with the help of remote sensing datasets. Contribution to concentration from six key sources (residential, industrial, commercial, crop fires, brick kiln and vehicles) was estimated by inverse distance weighting of their emissions in the land-use regression model. A hierarchical Bayesian approach was used to account for the random effects due to the heterogeneous emitting sources in the 15 cities. Long-term ambient PM 2.5 concentration from 2001 to 2015, was represented by a indicator R (varying from 0 to 100), decomposed from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) derived AOD (aerosol optical depth) and angstrom exponent datasets. The model was trained on annual-level spatial land-use distribution and technological advancement data and the monthly-level emission activity of 2001 and 2011 over each location to predict monthly R. The results suggest that above the central portion of a city, concentration due to primary PM 2.5 emission is contributed mostly by residential areas (35.0 ± 11.9%), brick kilns (11.7 ± 5.2%) and industries (4.2 ± 2.8%). The model performed moderately for most cities (median correlation for out of time validation was 0.52), especially when assumed changes in seasonal emissions for each source reflected actual seasonal changes in emissions. The results suggest the need for policies focusing on emissions from residential regions and brick kilns. The relative order of the contributions estimated by this study is consistent with other recent studies and a contribution of up to 42.8 ± 14.1% is attributed to the formation of secondary aerosol, long-range transport and unaccounted sources in surrounding regions. The strength of this approach is to be able to estimate the contribution of urban growth to primary aerosols statistically with a relatively low computation cost compared to the more accurate but computationally expensive chemical transport based models. This remote sensing based approach is especially useful in locations without emission inventory.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document