NCEP - ECPC monthly to seasonal US fire danger forecasts

Five National Fire Danger Rating System indices (including the Ignition Component, Energy Release Component, Burning Index, Spread Component, and the Keetch–Byram Drought Index) and the Fosberg Fire Weather Index are used to characterise US fire danger. These fire danger indices and input meteorological variables, including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, cloud cover and wind speed, can be skilfully predicted at weekly to seasonal time scales by a global to regional dynamical prediction system modified from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Coupled Forecast System. The System generates global and regional spectral model ensemble forecasts, which in turn provide required input meteorological variables for fire danger. Seven-month US regional forecasts were generated every month from 1982 to 2007. This study shows that coarse-scale global predictions were more skilful than persistence, and fine-scale regional model predictions were more skilful than global predictions. The fire indices were better related to fire counts and area burned than meteorological variables, although relative humidity and temperature were useful predictors of fire characteristics.

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Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf03052 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 1 ◽

Cited By ~ 48

Author(s):

J. Roads ◽

F. Fujioka ◽

S. Chen ◽

R. Burgan

Keyword(s):

Drought Index ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

The Past ◽

The Usa ◽

Burning Index ◽

Fire Characteristics ◽

Us West ◽

Climate Prediction Center

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been making experimental, near-real-time, weekly to seasonal fire danger forecasts for the past 5 years. US fire danger forecasts and validations are based on standard indices from the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), which include the ignition component (IC), energy release component (ER), burning index (BI), spread component (SC), and the Keetch–Byram drought index (KB). The Fosberg fire weather index, which is a simplified form of the BI, has been previously used not only for the USA but also for other global regions and is thus included for comparison. As will be shown, all of these indices can be predicted well at weekly times scales and there is even skill out to seasonal time scales over many US West locations. The most persistent indices (BI and ER) tend to have the greatest seasonal forecast skill. The NFDRS indices also have a weak relation to observed fire characteristics such as fire counts and acres burned, especially when the validation fire danger indices are used.

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Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-12-699-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 699-708 ◽

Cited By ~ 37

Author(s):

J. Bedia ◽

S. Herrera ◽

J. M. Gutiérrez ◽

G. Zavala ◽

I. R. Urbieta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Fire Spread ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Fire Danger ◽

General Tendency ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Effective Prevention

Abstract. Wildfires are a major concern on the Iberian Peninsula, and the establishment of effective prevention and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and losses. Fire weather indices are daily indicators of fire danger based upon meteorological information. However, their application in many studies is conditioned to the availability of sufficiently large climatological time series over extensive geographical areas and of sufficient quality. Furthermore, wind and relative humidity, important for the calculation of fire spread and fuel flammability parameters, are relatively scarce data. For these reasons, different reanalysis products are often used for the calculation of surrogate fire danger indices, although the agreement with those derived from observations remains as an open question to be addressed. In this study, we analyze this problem focusing on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) – and the associated Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) – and considering three different reanalysis products of varying resolutions on the Iberian Peninsula: NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Besides the inter-comparison of the resulting FWI/SSR values, we also study their correspondence with observational data from 7 weather stations in Spain and their sensitivity to the input parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity). As a general result, ERA-Interim reproduces the observed FWI magnitudes with better accuracy than NCEP, with lower/higher correlations in the coast/inland locations. For instance, ERA-Interim summer correlations are above 0.5 in inland locations – where higher FWI magnitudes are attained – whereas the corresponding values for NCEP are below this threshold. Nevertheless, departures from the observed distributions are generally found in all reanalysis, with a general tendency to underestimation, more pronounced in the case of NCEP. In spite of these limitations, ERA-Interim may still be useful for the identification of extreme fire danger events. (e.g. those above the 90th percentile value) and for the definition of danger levels/classes (with level thresholds adapted to the observed/reanalysis distributions).

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Evaluation of the Experimental Climate Prediction Center's fire danger forecasts with remote automated weather station observations

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf04042 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 19 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Hauss J. Reinbold ◽

John O. Roads ◽

Timothy J. Brown

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Relative Humidity ◽

Climate Prediction ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Weather Station ◽

Average Relative Humidity ◽

Burning Index ◽

Regional Forecasts ◽

Maximum Minimum ◽

Fire Danger Indices

The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center has been routinely making regional forecasts of atmospheric elements and fire danger indices since 27 September 1997. This study evaluates these forecasts using selected remote automated weather station observations over the western USA. Bias and anomaly correlations are computed for daily 2-m maximum, minimum, average temperature, 2-m maximum, minimum and average relative humidity, precipitation and afternoon 10-m wind speed, and four National Fire Danger Rating System indices—ignition component, spread component, burning index and energy release component. Of the atmospheric elements, temperature generally correlates well, but relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed are less correlated. Fire danger indices have much lower correlations, but do show useful spatial structure in some areas such as Southern California, Arizona and Nevada.

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Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 16 (5) ◽

pp. 1217-1237 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Mark C. de Jong ◽

Martin J. Wooster ◽

Karl Kitchen ◽

Cathy Manley ◽

Rob Gazzard ◽

...

Keyword(s):

United Kingdom ◽

Fire Severity ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Rating Systems ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

The Uk

Abstract. Wildfires in the United Kingdom (UK) pose a threat to people, infrastructure and the natural environment. During periods of particularly fire-prone weather, wildfires can occur simultaneously across large areas, placing considerable stress upon the resources of fire and rescue services. Fire danger rating systems (FDRSs) attempt to anticipate periods of heightened fire risk, primarily for early-warning and preparedness purposes. The UK FDRS, termed the Met Office Fire Severity Index (MOFSI), is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component of the Canadian Forest FWI System. The MOFSI currently provides daily operational mapping of landscape fire danger across England and Wales using a simple thresholding of the final FWI component of the Canadian FWI System. However, it is known that the system has scope for improvement. Here we explore a climatology of the six FWI System components across the UK (i.e. extending to Scotland and Northern Ireland), calculated from daily 2km × 2km gridded numerical weather prediction data and supplemented by long-term meteorological station observations. We used this climatology to develop a percentile-based calibration of the FWI System, optimised for UK conditions. We find this approach to be well justified, as the values of the "raw" uncalibrated FWI components corresponding to a very "extreme" (99th percentile) fire danger situation vary by more than an order of magnitude across the country. Therefore, a simple thresholding of the uncalibrated component values (as is currently applied in the MOFSI) may incur large errors of omission and commission with respect to the identification of periods of significantly elevated fire danger. We evaluate our approach to enhancing UK fire danger rating using records of wildfire occurrence and find that the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and FWI components of the FWI System generally have the greatest predictive skill for landscape fire activity across Great Britain, with performance varying seasonally and by land cover type. At the height of the most recent severe wildfire period in the UK (2 May 2011), 50 % of all wildfires occurred in areas where the FWI component exceeded the 99th percentile. When all wildfire events during the 2010–2012 period are considered, the 75th, 90th and 99th percentiles of at least one FWI component were exceeded during 85, 61 and 18 % of all wildfires respectively. Overall, we demonstrate the significant advantages of using a percentile-based calibration approach for classifying UK fire danger, and believe that our findings provide useful insights for future development of the current operational MOFSI UK FDRS.

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Wildfires and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index system for the Daxing'anling region of China

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf09120 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 20 (8) ◽

pp. 963 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Xiaorui Tian ◽

Douglas J. McRae ◽

Jizhong Jin ◽

Lifu Shu ◽

Fengjun Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Fire ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Coniferous Forest ◽

Northern China ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Fire Season ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Burnt Area ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was evaluated for the Daxing'anling region of northern China for the 1987–2006 fire seasons. The FWI system reflected the regional fire danger and could be effectively used there in wildfire management. The various FWI system components were classified into classes (i.e. low to extreme) for fire conditions found in the region. A total of 81.1% of the fires occurred in the high, very high and extreme fire danger classes, in which 73.9% of the fires occurred in the spring (0.1, 9.5, 33.3 and 33.1% in March, April, May and June). Large wildfires greater than 200 ha in area (16.7% of the total) burnt 99.2% of the total burnt area. Lightning was the main ignition source for 57.1% of the total fires. Result show that forest fires mainly occurred in deciduous coniferous forest (61.3%), grass (23.9%) and deciduous broad leaved forest (8.0%). A bimodal fire season was detected, with peaks in May and October. The components of FWI system were good indicators of fire danger in the Daxing'anling region of China and could be used to build a working fire danger rating system for the region.

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A Study on the Interpolation of Fire Danger Using Radar Precipitation Estimates

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf9980217 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

pp. 217 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

MD Flannigan ◽

BM Wotton ◽

S Ziga

Keyword(s):

Index System ◽

Fire Management ◽

Fire Danger ◽

The Other ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Weather Variables ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Precipitation Estimates ◽

Weather Stations

In Canada, many fire management agencies interpolate indexes of the Fire Weather Index System to estimate the fire danger between weather stations. Difficulties with interpolation arise because summer precipitation can be highly variable over short distances. This variability hinders the usefulness of interpolating precipitation, which is one of the inputs for the Fire Weather Index System. Precipitation estimates from the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service radar at Upsala, Ontario, were used to determine if this will enable a more accurate measure of the fire danger over the region. Three methods of interpolation of the fire danger between weather stations were compared: first, the standard practice of interpolating fire weather indexes from weather stations to any specified location; second, interpolating the weather variables, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation from the weather station to any specified site and then calculating the fire weather indexes; third, interpolating weather variables as in Method 2 above except using the precipitation estimate from the radar and then calculating the fire weather indexes for any specified site. Overall, results indicate that the standard procedure of interpolating the fire weather indexes performs better than the other two methods. However, there are indexes where the other methods perform best (e.g., the fine fuel moisture code is best determined by using the radar precipitation estimation method). Fire management agencies should continue to use the standard practice of interpolating fire weather indexes to estimate fire danger between weather stations. Factors influencing the performance of the radar estimated precipitation method of estimating fire danger are discussed along with potential application of precipitation radar for fire management purposes.

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Updated Operational Implementation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System in Ireland

10.5194/ems2021-285 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Padraig Flattery ◽

Klara Finkele ◽

Paul Downes ◽

Ferdia O'Leary ◽

Ciaran Nugent

Keyword(s):

Forest Fire ◽

Index System ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Energy Output ◽

Fire Intensity ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Reference Period ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index

Since 2006 the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (FWI) has been used operationally at Met &#201;ireann to predict the risk of forest fires in Ireland (Walsh, S, 2006). Although only around 11% or ca 770,000 ha of the total land area of Ireland is afforested, there are also large areas of open mountain and peatlands that are covered in grasses, dwarfshrub and larger woody shrub type vegetation which can provide ready fuel for spring wildfires, when suitable conditions arise. Following winter, much of this vegetation is either dead or has a very low live moisture content, and the flammability of this vegetation can be readily influenced by prevailing weather, most especially following prolonged dry periods. The Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine is the Forest Protection authority in Ireland and issues Fire Danger Notices as part of this work. These notices permit improved preparedness for fire responses and are based on information provided by Met &#201;ireann on the current status of FWI and FWI components using observation data at synoptic stations and the predicted FWI for the next five days ahead based on numerical weather prediction input data.The FWI is based on<ul><li>three different types of forest fuel, ie how quickly these dry out/get rewetted. These are the Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and the Drought Code (DC).</li> <li>components based on fire behaviour: the Initial Spread Index (ISI), the Build-up Index (BUI), and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) which represents fire intensity as energy output rate per unit length of fire front. It is then used to determine the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the fire danger.&#160;</li> </ul>Of these components, the FFMC and ISI components have been found to provide the most accurate indication of risk under Irish conditions, based on the fuels involved and ignition patterns observed to date.The DSR was based on a climatology of 1971 to 2005 at the time of operational implantation of the FWI at Met &#201;ireann. An updated climatology based on the new reference period of 1990 to 2020 will be shown as well as the change of the 98 percentiles of extreme rating using this new reference period. &#160;Walsh, S.&#160;&#8220;Implementation in Ireland of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System.&#8221; In&#160;Making Science Work on the Farm. A Workshop on Decision Support Systems for Irish Agriculture, 120&#8211;126. Dublin: AGMET, 2007.&#160;

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Variation in the Canadian Fire Weather Index Thresholds for Increasingly Larger Fires in Portugal

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10100838 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 838 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Fernandes

Keyword(s):

Fire Management ◽

Net Primary Production ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Fire Size ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

North Central ◽

Forest Fire Management

Forest fire management relies on the fire danger rating to optimize its suite of activities. Limiting fire size is the fire management target whenever minimizing burned area is the primary goal, such as in the Mediterranean Basin. Within the region, wildfire incidence is especially acute in Portugal, a country where fire-influencing anthropogenic and landscape features vary markedly within a relatively small area. This study establishes daily fire weather thresholds associated to transitions to increasingly larger fires for individual Portuguese regions (2001–2011 period), using the national wildfire and Canadian fire weather index (FWI) databases and logistic regression. FWI thresholds variation in relation to population density, topography, land cover, and net primary production (NPP) metrics is examined through regression and cluster analysis. Larger fires occur under increasingly higher fire danger. Resistance to fire spread (the fire-size FWI thresholds) varies regionally following biophysical gradients, and decreases under more complex topography and when NPP and occupation by flammable forest or by shrubland increase. Three main clusters synthesize these relationships and roughly coincide with the western north-central, eastern north-central and southern parts of the country. Quantification of fire-weather relationships can be improved through additional variables and analysis at other spatial scales.

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