Cost effectiveness of fire management strategies in southern Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 427 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. D. Penman ◽  
B. A. Cirulis
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Bayesian Decision ◽  
Fire Simulation ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Increased Risk

Fire-management agencies invest significant resources to reduce the impacts of future fires. There has been increasing public scrutiny over how agencies allocate fire-management budgets and, in response, agencies are looking to use quantitative risk-based approaches to make decisions about expenditure in a more transparent manner. Advances in fire-simulation software and computing capacity of fire-agency staff have meant that fire simulators have been increasingly used for quantitative fire-risk analysis. Here we analyse the cost trade-offs of future fire management in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and surrounding areas by combining fire simulation with Bayesian Decision Networks. We compare potential future-management approaches considering prescribed burning, suppression and fire exclusion. These data combined costs of treatment and impacts on assets to undertake a quantitative risk analysis. The proposed approach for fuel treatment in ACT and New South Wales (NSW) provided the greatest reduction in risk and the most cost-effective approach to managing fuels in this landscape. Past management decisions have reduced risk in the landscape and the legacy of these treatments will last for at least 3 years. However, an absence of burning will result in an increased risk from fire in this landscape.

Simulation of prescribed burning strategies in south-west Tasmania, Australia: effects on unplanned fires, fire regimes, and ecological management values

2006 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen J. King ◽  
Geoffrey J. Cary ◽  
Ross A. Bradstock ◽  
Joanne Chapman ◽  
Adrian Pyrke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Treatment Level ◽  
Prescribed Burn ◽  
Burn Treatment ◽  
South West ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Mean

Computer simulation modelling provides a useful approach for determining the trade-offs between the extent of prescribed burning and the long-term impacts of unplanned fires on management values. In the present study, FIRESCAPE-SWTAS, a process-based fire regime and vegetation dynamics model, was used in the World Heritage Area of south-west Tasmania, Australia, to investigate the implications of different prescribed burning treatments on identified management objectives. Treatments included annual prescribed burning of different proportions of the most flammable vegetation community, buttongrass moorlands. Additionally, a proposed strategic burning treatment for this landscape was simulated for comparison with these treatments. Simulations identified the nature of the relationships between the prescribed burn treatment level and the fire size distributions, the mean incidence, and the mean annual areas burnt by unplanned fires, with all three parameters declining with increases in treatment level. The study also indicated that strategically located treatment units were able to enhance the reduction in the fire risk to vegetation species susceptible to fire (fire-intolerant species).

Traditional and ecological fires and effects of bushfire laws in north Australian savannas

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel Preece
Keyword(s):  
Land Management ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Traditional Practices ◽  
The North ◽  
In Fire

Landscape fires are common and frequent across the north Australian savannas, and are arguably an essential component of regional ecosystem dynamics. Seasonal biases in fire regimes and the high frequency of late dry season fires in a large proportion of the region have been presented as an impediment to appropriate land management. Legislation regulating the lighting of fires applies to the whole of the savannas. The legislation seeks to control the lighting of fires, provides for permit systems to operate in each jurisdiction, and is supported by policies and guidance manuals. The present paper argues that the legislation fails to address prescribed burning, the biophysical and social realities of contemporary regimes, and management needs. The policies and legislation are in need of some fundamental changes, including recognition of the concept of prescribed burning, mechanisms to promote regional fire management strategies and plans, and recognition of indigenous traditional practices.

scholarly journals The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the Wildland Urban Interface in Sydney, Australia

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (5) ◽  
pp. 4539-4564
Author(s):  
O. F. Price ◽  
R. A. Bradstock
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Prescribed Fires ◽  
Wildland Urban Interface

Abstract. In order to quantify the risks from fire at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting more than 2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances further than 10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

scholarly journals Reconstruction of the Spring Hill Wildfire and Exploration of Alternate Management Scenarios Using QUIC-Fire

Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Michael R. Gallagher ◽  
Zachary Cope ◽  
Daniel Rosales Giron ◽  
Nicholas S. Skowronski ◽  
Trevor Raynor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
New Physics ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
And Training

New physics-based fire behavior models are poised to revolutionize wildland fire planning and training; however, model testing against field conditions remains limited. We tested the ability of QUIC-Fire, a fast-running and computationally inexpensive physics-based fire behavior model to numerically reconstruct a large wildfire that burned in a fire-excluded area within the New York–Philadelphia metropolitan area in 2019. We then used QUIC-Fire as a tool to explore how alternate hypothetical management scenarios, such as prescribed burning, could have affected fire behavior. The results of our reconstruction provide a strong demonstration of how QUIC-Fire can be used to simulate actual wildfire scenarios with the integration of local weather and fuel information, as well as to efficiently explore how fire management can influence fire behavior in specific burn units. Our results illustrate how both reductions of fuel load and specific modification of fuel structure associated with frequent prescribed fire are critical to reducing fire intensity and size. We discuss how simulations such as this can be important in planning and training tools for wildland firefighters, and for avenues of future research and fuel monitoring that can accelerate the incorporation of models like QUIC-Fire into fire management strategies.

Study on the Probabilistic Scenario Based Fire Risk Analysis of FPSO Topside Module

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanlin Jin ◽  
Beom Seon Jang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Offshore Platform ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Fire Simulation ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Fire Risk Analysis ◽  
Fire Accident

Many offshore platforms are normally exposed to the flammable oil & gas circumstances; hence hydrocarbon fire is a big threat to the offshore platform. Fire accidents on the offshore platform usually occupy a major part of the total risks. Nevertheless, existing methods of fire risk analysis used in the industry are still not intact enough to advisably evaluate the risks related to fire accident especially for supporting structures of process modules. For this reason a new procedure of fire risk analysis is established in this paper to overcome those deficiencies in the existing methods. The new method is constructed through a scenario based probabilistic approach. In the new FRA (Fire Risk Analysis) procedure, the key parameters used for constructing fire scenarios are cautiously considered and discussed in case of causing a conservative judgment. Also, dynamic effect of transient fire accident is properly considered by applying an effective method called ‘snapshot’ during the CFD fire simulation. Furthermore, for investigating the structural failure under the fire, thermal elasto-plastic structural analysis is included in the new FRA. In the former FRAs, the traditional exceedance curve with certain physical variable is used in the frequency analysis to combine the results of fire simulation and fire frequency calculation. The main purpose of using exceedance curve is for deciding a DAL (Design Accidental Load), which is used for structure design against fire accident or even determining of the proper risk mitigation measures e.g. PFP (Passive Fire Protection). However, different from former FRAs, structure response analysis is carried out in the new procedure and the results are taken into consideration through a newly proposed concept i.e. structural cumulative failure frequency. The purpose of proposing cumulative failure frequency in the new FRA can be summarized as following two aspects. One is to avoid the difficulties of applying the identified DAL to the structure analysis in the former FRAs, and other one is to determine the optimized PFP application area for topside structure. For showing the details of new FRA procedure a demo is also demonstrated in this paper.

Social acceptability of fuel management in the Australian Capital Territory and surrounding region

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 1093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda R. Mylek ◽  
Jacki Schirmer
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Livestock Grazing ◽  
Social Acceptability ◽  
Fuel Management ◽  
Australian Capital Territory ◽  
Australian Capital ◽  
Wildland Fire Risk

Managing fuel to reduce wildland fire risk often creates substantial public debate. Although the acceptability of various fuel management strategies has been explored in some regions, particularly North America, the social acceptability of fuel management is less well understood in other countries. This paper begins to address this knowledge gap by exploring acceptability by residents living in and near the Australian Capital Territory, Australia of three fuel management strategies (prescribed burning, livestock grazing and mechanical thinning) used to reduce wildland fire risk to life and property. All three were considered acceptable by most survey respondents. Acceptability did not vary substantially between strategies or by the location in which the strategy was undertaken. Acceptability of fuel management was associated with trust in fire management agencies, having knowledge of fuel management, feeling vulnerable to wildland fire and respondent characteristics such as previous effects of wildland fires, location of residence, gender, age, income and employment status.

scholarly journals The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the wildland urban interface in Sydney, Australia

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3385-3393 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. F. Price ◽  
R. A. Bradstock
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Prescribed Fires ◽  
Wildland Urban Interface

Abstract. In order to quantify the risks from fire at the wildland urban interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of the 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire's weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting >2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances >10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). Overall, 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

scholarly journals Evolving fire management strategies and their impact on the occurrence and spatial extent of unplanned wildfires in a large African savanna park

2018 ◽  
pp. 19-27
Author(s):  
Tercia Strydom ◽  
Stephen A. Midzi
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Prescribed Burning ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
African Savanna ◽  
Over Time

Savannas cover approximately 20 % of the global land surface. In African savannas, fire is an important agent for controlling these ecosystems. Kruger National Park (KNP) is a large African savanna park which has implemented a variety of fire management strategies over the years. Using KNP’s recorded fire history (from 1941-2017), we examined the occurrence and spatial extent of accidental wildfires in KNP in relation to adaptations in the fire management strategies over time. From 1941 to 2017 fires were a regular, almost annual occurrence in KNP. However, fuel loads accumulate over time when fires are extinguished or controlled burning in these landscapes is prevented, and the result is a substantial amount of combustible material to support large unplanned wildfires. Therefore, fire management strategies influence the occurrence and spatial extent of unplanned wildfires in African savannas. Prescribed burning is a critical management tool which should be used in fire-prone landscapes, however, research is needed to determine the appropriate fire regime needed to manage a fire-driven system.

Fire Risk Analysis Using Geospatial Approach and Mitigation Measures for South-West Delhi

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
S. K. Tomar ◽  
A. Kaur ◽  
H. K. Dangi ◽  
T. Ghawana ◽  
K. Sarma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Fire Service ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Fire Risk Analysis ◽  
South West ◽  
Geospatial Tools ◽  
Fire Stations

One of the major challenge from unplanned growth in the cities is the fire incidents posing a serious threat to life and property. Delhi, the capital city of India, has seen unplanned growth of colonies resulting in a serious concern for the relevant agencies. This paper investigates the relation between potential causes of fire incidents during 2013-2016 in South-West Delhi Division of Delhi Fire Services as part of risk analysis using the data about fire stations & their jurisdictions, incidents of fire, water reservoirs available, landuse and population data along with the divisional & sub-divisional boundaries of South-West Delhi division under Delhi Fire Service. Statistical and Geospatial tools have been used together to perform the risk analysis. The analysis reveals that difference in actual occupancy and defined landuse as a part of unplanned growth of settlements is found to be the main reason behind the major fire incidents. The suggested mitigation measures focus on legal, policy, physical & technological aspects and highlight the need to bring the systemic changes with changing scenario of demographics and infrastructure to accommodate more aspects of ground reality.

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