scholarly journals Flood risk behaviors of United States riverine metropolitan areas are driven by local hydrology and shaped by race

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (13) ◽  
pp. e2016839118
Author(s):  
James Knighton ◽  
Kelly Hondula ◽  
Cielo Sharkus ◽  
Christian Guzman ◽  
Rebecca Elliott
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Annual Peak ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Flooding Risk

Flooding risk results from complex interactions between hydrological hazards (e.g., riverine inundation during periods of heavy rainfall), exposure, vulnerability (e.g., the potential for structural damage or loss of life), and resilience (how well we recover, learn from, and adapt to past floods). Building on recent coupled conceptualizations of these complex interactions, we characterize human–flood interactions (collective memory and risk-enduring attitude) at a more comprehensive scale than has been attempted to date across 50 US metropolitan statistical areas with a sociohydrologic (SH) model calibrated with accessible local data (historical records of annual peak streamflow, flood insurance loss claims, active insurance policy records, and population density). A cluster analysis on calibrated SH model parameter sets for metropolitan areas identified two dominant behaviors: 1) “risk-enduring” cities with lower flooding defenses and longer memory of past flood loss events and 2) “risk-averse” cities with higher flooding defenses and reduced memory of past flooding. These divergent behaviors correlated with differences in local stream flashiness indices (i.e., the frequency and rapidity of daily changes in streamflow), maximum dam heights, and the proportion of White to non-White residents in US metropolitan areas. Risk-averse cities tended to exist within regions characterized by flashier streamflow conditions, larger dams, and larger proportions of White residents. Our research supports the development of SH models in urban metropolitan areas and the design of risk management strategies that consider both demographically heterogeneous populations, changing flood defenses, and temporal changes in community risk perceptions and tolerance.

Modeling the interplay between droughts, floods and human activities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Vincent Odongo ◽  
Elena Mondino ◽  
Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Drought And Flood ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Sequence Effects

<p>Several studies showed an increasingly negative impact of droughts and floods due to the combined effects of socio-economic and climatic factors. To better understand changes in hydrological risk over time, it is fundamental to unravel the complex interactions between increasing urbanization, population growth, water management strategies and increasing frequency and intensity of hydrological hazards. To this end, various socio-hydrological models have been developed over the past decade to explain the dynamics of risk generated by either human-flood or human-drought interactions. This study proposes a new analytical framework to represent, for the first time, the deeply intertwined interactions between humans and both hydrological extremes, i.e. floods and droughts. A new system dynamic model is developed and then applied to explore the phenomena generated by human-water interactions in relation to different water management strategies. The results show the ability of the proposed model to capture multiple socio-hydrological phenomena that have been empirically observed (levee effect, supply-demand cycle, reservoir, rebound, and sequence effects). In particular, our model is capable to capture dynamics that did not emerge in previous socio-hydrological models where human, drought and flood interplay is considered independently. Given its explanatory value, the model can contribute to a better interpretation of changes in drought and flood risk associated with anthropogenic influences.</p>

scholarly journals The Benefits of Combining Global and Local Data—A Showcase for Valuation and Mapping of Mangrove Climate Regulation and Food Provisioning Services within a Protected Area in Pará, North Brazil

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 432
Author(s):  
Robin Gutting ◽  
Ralf-Uwe Syrbe ◽  
Karsten Grunewald ◽  
Ulf Mehlig ◽  
Véronique Helfer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mangrove Forests ◽  
Food Provisioning ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Climate Regulation ◽  
North Brazil ◽  
Species Specific

Mangrove forests provide a large variety of ecosystem services (ES) to coastal societies. Using a case study focusing on the Ajuruteua peninsula in Northern Brazil and two ES, food provisioning (ES1) and global climate regulation (ES2), this paper proposes a new framework for quantifying and valuing mangrove ES and allow for their small-scale mapping. We modelled and spatialised the two ES from different perspectives, the demand (ES1) and the supply (ES2) side respectively. This was performed by combining worldwide databases related to the global human population (ES1) or mangrove distribution and canopy height (ES2) with locally derived parameters, such as crab catches (ES1) or species-specific allometric equations based on local estimates of tree structural parameters (ES2). Based on this approach, we could estimate that the area delivers the basic nutrition of about 1400 households, which equals 2.7 million USD, and that the mangrove biomass in the area contains 2.1 million Mg C, amounting to 50.9 million USD, if it were paid as certificates. In addition to those figures, we provide high-resolution maps showing which areas are more valuable for the two respective ES, information that could help inform management strategies in the future.

scholarly journals The Geo-Social Model: A Transdisciplinary Approach to Flow-Type Landslide Analysis and Prevention

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2501
Author(s):  
Valentina Acuña ◽  
Francisca Roldán ◽  
Manuel Tironi ◽  
Leila Juzam
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Risk Prevention ◽  
Social Model ◽  
Experimental Methodology ◽  
Landslide Risk ◽  
Sociocultural Environment ◽  
Flow Type ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Municipal Level

Landslide disaster risks increase worldwide, particularly in urban areas. To design and implement more effective and democratic risk reduction programs, calls for transdisciplinary approaches have recently increased. However, little attention has been paid to the actual articulation of transdisciplinary methods and their associated challenges. To fill this gap, we draw on the case of the 1993 Quebrada de Macul disaster, Chile, to propose what we label as the Geo-Social Model. This experimental methodology aims at integrating recursive interactions between geological and social factors configuring landslide for more robust and inclusive analyses and interventions. It builds upon three analytical blocks or site-specific environments in constant co-determination: (1) The geology and geomorphology of the study area; (2) the built environment, encompassing infrastructural, urban, and planning conditions; and (3) the sociocultural environment, which includes community memory, risk perceptions, and territorial organizing. Our results are summarized in a geo-social map that systematizes the complex interactions between the three environments that facilitated the Quebrada de Macul flow-type landslide. While our results are specific to this event, we argue that the Geo-Social Model can be applied to other territories. In our conclusions, we suggest, first, that landslides in urban contexts are often the result of anthropogenic disruptions of natural balances and systems, often related to the lack of place-sensitive urban planning. Second, that transdisciplinary approaches are critical for sustaining robust and politically effective landslide risk prevention plans. Finally, that inter- and trans-disciplinary approaches to landslide risk prevention need to be integrated into municipal-level planning for a better understanding of—and prevention of—socio-natural hazards.

Earthquake Damage Assessment Based on Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks

2001 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Sánchez-Silva ◽  
Libardo García
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Computer Software ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Feed Forward Neural Network ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Potential Damage

Potential damage assessment is fundamental for defining mitigation procedures and risk management strategies. Damage assessment involves the difficulties of defining, assessing, and modeling the variables involved, as well as handling uncertainty. Seismic damage estimation of structures does not only depend on the behavior of the structural system, but it involves other factors, which differ in nature. The paper presents a methodology for damage assessment of structures that combines systems theory, fuzzy logic, and neural networks. A feed-forward neural network supported on the systemic organization of information is used to assess the expected structural damage for a given earthquake. The methodology provides a very useful environment to consider the context of the building structure. The network has been trained using the damage observed in the recent earthquake that occurred in central Colombia. Several sets of structures were evaluated and the results compared to the damage observed. The model showed to be highly reliable and a good representation of experts' opinions. Computer software ERS-99 was developed and is currently being used for teaching and consulting purposes.

scholarly journals “Fiat Lux.” Navigating chaos through Sensing Leadership

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Van der Merwe
Keyword(s):  
Change Management ◽  
Interpersonal Relationships ◽  
Leadership Style ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Sense Making ◽  
Leadership Attributes ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Biblical Narratives ◽  
The Common ◽  
Response To Change

This article provides an overview of change management strategies described in business science. From the distinctions made, it becomes clear that change is all-pervasive and the result of complex interactions within and between the internal and external environments of organizations and communities. Complexity theory is subsequently considered as a better vantage point from where a response to change may be informed. The leadership style to correspond to this new reading of change needs to be that of “transcending leadership” where sensing and sense-making skills are honed to sense emerging meaning in organizations, in interpersonal relationships and through intrapersonal reflection. Instead of “making” change happen, the new leadership “lets” things happen, sensing the connections between emerging events in the context and creating a level of readiness to find the potential meaning in what may usually have been perceived as mere chaos. The creation narrative and a new reading of chaos as possibility provide Judeo-Christian sources of spirituality in this regard. Other Biblical narratives are cited to show in which way different change management frameworks can be applied to the respective narratives, but also how sensing and sense-making remain the common leadership attributes in successfully navigated change.

P18 The role of decompressive craniectomy for traumatic brain injury: should we be leaving the lid off?

2019 ◽  
Vol 90 (3) ◽  
pp. e30.3-e29
Author(s):  
LF Saukila ◽  
B Little ◽  
NI Phillips ◽  
IA Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Decompressive Craniectomy ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Severe Disability ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Primary Surgery ◽  
Outcome Scores ◽  
Discharge Location ◽  
Pupil Reaction

ObjectivesThe RESCUEicp study has not culminated in consensus about the role of decompressive craniectomy following head injury. Another study (RESCUE-ASDH) also questions craniectomy for patients with ASDH. We examined our own practice over 5 years.DesignRetrospective analysis at a single UK unit. Comparison of outcomes with RESCUEicp results and national data obtained from the Neurosurgical National Audit Programme (NNAP).Subjects82 patients over 5 years. 87% male. 90% adults (age >16).MethodsLocal data: demographics, CT features, pre-op GCS/pupil reaction/ICP, primary/secondary craniectomy, operative timings, length of stay (critical care/overall), Extended Glasgow Outcome Scores, discharge location. NNAP data analysis.Results43% had ASDH with MLS >5 mm (91% primary decompression). Median time to primary surgery from referral 1 h37. 11 primary, 6 secondary decompressions/year; no change over 5 years 3 extensions of craniectomy, 3 had previous craniotomy converted. 30 day mortality 28%. Overall GOS-E: death 33%, lower severe disability 6%, upper severe disability 6%, moderate disability 16%, good recovery 37% (improved by better presentation GCS). 75% had cranioplasty. Median length of stay 41 days.ConclusionsOur practice has not changed over time, despite RESCUEicp. Good outcomes observed may be due to local specialist management of these patients, or reflect judicious case selection. Case-by-case decisions are crucial and may explain why large trials fail to change real-world management strategies. NNAP data comparison ongoing.

scholarly journals Coping with poor water supply in peri-urban Bandung, Indonesia: towards a framework for understanding risks and aversion behaviours

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anindrya Nastiti ◽  
Barti Setiani Muntalif ◽  
Dwina Roosmini ◽  
Arief Sudradjat ◽  
S V Meijerink ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Socioeconomic Characteristics ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Shared Experiences ◽  
Actual Risk ◽  
Risk Management Strategies

This paper explores the daily risks of households with respect to dimensions of inadequate water access and supply (quality, quantity, continuity and affordability). We describe how perceptions of risk are shaped and how households seek to reduce possible health impacts and potential economic losses through aversion behaviours. To this end, households’ activities relating to water storage, treatment and usage, together with water source preference, were analysed using a qualitative approach. We developed a framework that describes actual risk, risk perceptions and aversion behaviours. Risk perceptions and the adoption of aversion behaviours of varying frequency and intensity are based on a complex interaction between personal and shared experiences that relate to water supply dimensions, socioeconomic characteristics, and social networking. Moreover, we discuss household risk management strategies and provide some recommendations aimed at improving future approaches to the study of aversion behaviours.

scholarly journals Spatial Autocorrelation of Communes’ Income Potential in Selected Metropolitan Areas

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (330) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Bernadetta Kozera ◽  
Romana Głowicka-Wołoszyn
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Data Bank ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
Central Statistical ◽  
Central Statistical Office ◽  
Economic Capacity

A commune’s own income potential, indicative of financial self‑sufficiency, underpins the ability of its government to foster local growth. Accurate recognition of the potential levels necessary for improvement of development policies requires that, apart from considering communes’ own potential, neighbouring communes’ potential should be taken into account, especially if the neighbours are large urban centres of substantial demographic and economic capacity. This article aims to examine spatial autocorrelation of income potential of metropolitan communes of Warsaw, Poznań, Wrocław, and Cracow metro areas in 2014. The study draws on data published by the Central Statistical Office in the Local Data Bank and uses the R programme packages, such as spdep, maptools, and shapefiles for calculations.

scholarly journals Potential of Holocene deltaic sequences for subsidence due to peat compaction

2015 ◽  
Vol 372 ◽  
pp. 173-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Stouthamer ◽  
S. van Asselen
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Sustainable Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Flooding Risk ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract. Land subsidence is a major threat for the livability of deltas worldwide. Mitigation of the negative impacts of subsidence, like increasing flooding risk, requires an assessment of the potential of the deltas' subsurfaces for subsidence. This enables the prediction of current and future subsidence and optimization of sustainable management strategies. In this paper we present a method to determine the amount of compaction within different Holocene deltaic peat sequences based on a case study from the Rhine-Meuse delta, the Netherlands, showing the potential of these sequences for subsidence due to peat compaction.

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