Sensationalising sex offenders and sexual recidivism: Impact of the Serious Sex Offender Monitoring Act 2005 on media reportage

2009 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
LAUREN DUCAT ◽  
STUART THOMAS ◽  
WARWICK BLOOD
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Recidivism

Using Logistic Regression Modeling to Predict Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe ◽  
Pamela J. Freske
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Contemporary Sample ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
High Level

This study presents the results from efforts to revise the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), one of the most widely used sex offender risk-assessment tools. The updated instrument, the MnSOST-3, contains nine individual items, six of which are new. The population for this study consisted of the cross-validation sample for the MnSOST-R ( N = 220) and a contemporary sample of 2,315 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. To score and select items for the MnSOST-3, we used predicted probabilities generated from a multiple logistic regression model. We used bootstrap resampling to not only refine our selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. The results indicate the MnSOST-3 has a relatively high level of predictive discrimination, as evidenced by an apparent AUC of .821 and an optimism-corrected AUC of .796. The findings show the MnSOST-3 is well calibrated with actual recidivism rates for all but the highest risk offenders. Although estimating a penalized maximum likelihood model did not improve the overall calibration, the results suggest the MnSOST-3 may still be useful in helping identify high-risk offenders whose sexual recidivism risk exceeds 50%. Results from an interrater reliability assessment indicate the instrument, which is scored in a Microsoft Excel application, has an adequate degree of consistency across raters (ICC = .83 for both consistency and absolute agreement).

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (16) ◽  
pp. 1928-1941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Sex Offender Risk Assessment ◽  
Frequentist Probability

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals’ risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals’ risk of sexual recidivism.

Dimensions Associated with Assessments of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 569-589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caton F. Roberts ◽  
Dennis M. Doren ◽  
David Thornton
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Factor Structure ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Structure Information ◽  
Sex Offender Recidivism ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Individual Risk Factors

This research explored empirical dimensions of sex offender recidivism risk. Study 1 portrayed descriptive statistics and factor structure information concerning actuarial risk instruments and diagnoses derived from a sample of sex offenders being evaluated for civil commitment in Wisconsin. Study 2 used a sample from England and Wales to analyze the relationships between individual risk factors commonly found as items within actuarial scales. Factor structure results from Study 2 conceptually overlapped those found in the first sample, and variables developed from this factor structure predicted sexual reconviction as well. Results from these two studies are discussed in terms of separable components of risk for sexual recidivism and the roles those components may play in processes underlying sexual reoffense.

Review of Risk Assessment Instruments for Juvenile Sex Offenders

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inge Hempel ◽  
Nicole Buck ◽  
Maaike Cima ◽  
Hjalmar van Marle
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offenders ◽  
Assessment Instruments ◽  
Sexual Offence ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Assessment Protocol

Risk assessment is considered to be a key element in the prevention of recidivism among juvenile sex offenders (JSOs), often by imposing long-term consequences based on that assessment. The authors reviewed the literature on the predictive accuracy of six well-known risk assessment instruments used to appraise risk among JSOs: the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II), Juvenile Sexual Offence Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool-II (J-SORRAT-II), Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offence Recidivism (ERASOR), Juvenile Risk Assessment Scale (JRAS), Structured Assessment of Violent Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Hare Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version (PCL:YV). Through a systematic search, 19 studies were reviewed. Studies showed differences in the predictive accuracies for general, violent, and sexual recidivism, and none of the instruments showed unequivocal positive results in predicting future offending. Not unexpectedly, the accuracy of the SAVRY and PCL:YV appeared to be weaker for sexual recidivism compared with specialized tools such as the J-SOAP-II or the ERASOR. Because of the rapid development of juveniles, it is questionable to impose long-term restrictions based on a risk assessment only. New challenges in improving risk assessment are discussed.

Public Perceptions of GPS Monitoring for Convicted Sex Offenders: Opinions on Effectiveness of Electronic Monitoring to Reduce Sexual Recidivism

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (12) ◽  
pp. 1335-1353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen M. Budd ◽  
Christina Mancini
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Electronic Monitoring ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Sample ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Multinomial Regression ◽  
Positioning Systems

In the United States, electronic monitoring (EM) and global positioning systems (GPS) are new applications that are used to extensively monitor and track convicted sex offenders. What is unclear though are public perceptions of this strategy. This research examines public perceptions of a national sample of Americans on the use of GPS/EM with convicted sex offenders as a method to reduce their sexual recidivism. Using a multinomial regression model, we analyze the effects of sex offender myths and parental status on public perceptions that sex offender GPS/EM is very effective in reducing sexual recidivism. Findings suggest that public perceptions of effectiveness are partially driven by myths and also that parents are unsure of this strategy. The analysis contributes to the growing body of knowledge on public perceptions of GPS/EM to manage sex offenders in communities. Implications of the study and areas for future research are discussed in light of the findings.

Shame and blame: Secondary stigma among families of convicted sex offenders

2021 ◽  
pp. 174889582110173
Author(s):  
Douglas Evans ◽  
Adam Trahan ◽  
Kaleigh Laird
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Family Members ◽  
The United States ◽  
Formerly Incarcerated ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Sex Offender Registry

The detriment of incarceration experienced by the formerly incarcerated has been increasingly explored in the literature on reentry. A tangential but equally concerning issue that has recently received more research attention is the effect on family members of the incarcerated. The stigma of a criminal conviction is most apparent among families of convicted sex offenders, who experience consequences parallel to those of their convicted relative. Drawing from interviews with 30 individuals with a family member incarcerated for a sex offence in the United States, this study explores manifestations of stigma due to familial association. The findings suggest that families face negative treatment from social networks and criminal justice officials, engage in self-blame and that the media’s control over the narrative exacerbates family members’ experiences. Given the pervasiveness of criminal justice system contact, the rapid growth of the sex offender registry in the United States, and the millions of family members peripherally affected by one or both, justice system reforms are needed to ensure that family members are shielded from the harms of incarceration and registration.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders

2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (14) ◽  
pp. 1593-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Elwood ◽  
Sharon M. Kelley ◽  
James C. Mundt
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Sexually Violent ◽  
Male Sex ◽  
Sexually Violent Person ◽  
Male Sex Offenders

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates. This study provides alternative 5- and 10-year recidivism rates based on logistic regression analyses of the entire 2009 Static-99R HR/HN group that includes the Bridgewater sample. These rates fit the observed 2009 data well and have smaller confidence intervals. We propose that using alternative sexual recidivism rates from the 2009 HR/HN group is a viable option for assessing sexually violent person (SVP) and other high-risk offenders.

scholarly journals Self-harm and suicidality among three subgroups of male sex offenders: results from an Australian prisoner cohort

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathew Gullotta ◽  
David Greenberg ◽  
Olayan Albalawi ◽  
Armita Adily ◽  
Azar Karminia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Violent Offenders ◽  
Health Condition ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Psychiatric Medication ◽  
Self Harm ◽  
Self Report Data

Abstract Objective Prisoners complete suicide and self-harm more frequently than members of the community. Sex offenders have been found to be at greater risk of engaging in these behaviours. This study examines the characteristics, prevalence, and predictors of self-harm and suicide attempts among: sex offenders that only victimise children (ChildSOs); adults (AdultSOs); or both (age-crossover polymorphous; PolySOs). Methods Data from three waves (1996, 2001, 2009) of the New South Wales (NSW) Inmate Health Survey was linked to the State’s re-offending database to identify men with histories of sexual offending. The health surveys captured self-report data on self-harm and suicidality. Results Non-sexual violent offenders (15%) and AdultSOs (14%) had the highest rate of self-harm, significantly more than ChildSOs (11%), non-sexual non-violent offenders (10%), and PolySOs (0%). Several factors significantly predicted self-harm at the bivariate level for both ChildSOs and AdultSOs, with unique predictors for each group. At the multivariate level, manic-depression trended towards significance for ChildSOs and any mental health condition remained a significant predictor for AdultSOs who self-harmed relative to AdultSOs who had not (aOR = 11.989, 95%CI [1.14, 126.66]). Approximately 23% of AdultSOs, 22% of PolySOs, and 19% of ChildSOs reported a suicide attempt throughout their lifetime, whereas only 15% of non-sexual non-violent offenders reported an attempt. At the bivariate level, few factors were significant for ChildSOs while several factors were significant for AdultSOs. At the multivariate level, a diagnosis of depression and treatment with psychiatric medication trended towards being significant predictors of suicide attempts for ChildSOs. In contrast, treatment with psychiatric medication (aOR = 25.732, 95%CI [1.91, 347.19])] remained a significant predictor for AdultSOs who attempted suicide relative to AdultSOs who had not, as well as historical psychiatric hospitalisation (aOR = 6.818, 95%CI [1.04, 44.82]) and self-harm (aOR = 5.825, 95%CI [1.31, 25.99]). Conclusion Sex offenders are at significantly higher risk of attempting and completing suicide relative to non-sexual non-violent offenders and warrant special attention. The prevalence rates and predictors of self-harm and suicidality suggest differences between sex offender subgroups may exist. These hold implications for the criminal justice and public health systems for addressing needs and identifying those most at risk of self-harm and suicide.

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