On estimating uniform distribution via linear Bayes method

To rationalize the inspection interval for the wall-thinning piping element, the linear-Bayes method was proposed in the previous paper. To derive the simple formula, the linear-Bayes method ignores the corrosion rate change against time. However, this change may be caused by the one of the operational environment. Therefore, without the sufficient monitoring of the environment, the linear-Bayes method may underestimate the failure probability. In this paper, the linear-Bayes method is extended for the wall-thinning model with the corrosion rate fluctuation, which imitates the unexpected change of the corrosion rate. The extension is carried out through following two approaches: the “correction-term” and the “error-term” approaches. The correction-term approach can evaluate the change of corrosion rate, however, it requires sufficient number of inspections. The error-term approach evaluates the failure probability conservatively.

Download Full-text

A Bayes Linear Bayes Method for Estimation of Correlated Event Rates

Risk Analysis ◽

10.1111/risa.12035 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 33 (12) ◽

pp. 2209-2224 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

John Quigley ◽

Kevin J. Wilson ◽

Lesley Walls ◽

Tim Bedford

Keyword(s):

Bayes Method ◽

Event Rates ◽

Linear Bayes

Download Full-text

How to Improve Classical Estimators via Linear Bayes Method?

Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods ◽

10.5351/csam.2015.22.6.531 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 22 (6) ◽

pp. 531-542

Author(s):

Lichun Wang

Keyword(s):

Bayes Method ◽

Linear Bayes

Download Full-text

Bayesian Diagnostic Probabilities without Assuming Independence of Symptoms

Methods of Information in Medicine ◽

10.1055/s-0038-1634813 ◽

1991 ◽

Vol 30 (01) ◽

pp. 15-22 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

A. Gammerman ◽

A. R. Thatcher

Keyword(s):

Abdominal Pain ◽

Acute Abdominal Pain ◽

Final Diagnosis ◽

Bayes Theorem ◽

Bayes Method ◽

Hospital Records ◽

Computer Diagnosis ◽

Bayes Model ◽

Chi Squared ◽

Past Data

The paper describes an application of Bayes’ Theorem to the problem of estimating from past data the probabilities that patients have certain diseases, given their symptoms. The data consist of hospital records of patients who suffered acute abdominal pain. For each patient the records showed a large number of symptoms and the final diagnosis, to one of nine diseases or diagnostic groups. Most current methods of computer diagnosis use the “Simple Bayes” model in which the symptoms are assumed to be independent, but the present paper does not make this assumption. Those symptoms (or lack of symptoms) which are most relevant to the diagnosis of each disease are identified by a sequence of chi-squared tests. The computer diagnoses obtained as a result of the implementation of this approach are compared with those given by the “Simple Bayes” method, by the method of classification trees (CART), and also with the preliminary and final diagnoses made by physicians.

Download Full-text

Klasifikasi Tahap Kematangan Pisang Ambon Berdasarkan Warna Menggunakan Naive Bayes

PIKSEL : Penelitian Ilmu Komputer Sistem Embedded and Logic ◽

10.33558/piksel.v5i2.268 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 60-67 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Dwi Yulianto ◽

Retno Nugroho Whidhiasih ◽

Maimunah Maimunah

Keyword(s):

Naive Bayes ◽

Fruit Production ◽

Naïve Bayes ◽

Primary Data ◽

Banana Fruit ◽

Bayes Method ◽

Classification Image ◽

Average Accuracy ◽

The Government

ABSTRACT Banana fruit is a commodity that contributes a great value to both national and international fruit production achievement. The government through the National Standardization Agency establishes standards to maintain the quality of bananas. The purpose of this Project is to classify the stages of maturity of Ambon banana base on the color index using Naïve Bayes method in accordance with the regulations of SNI 7422:2009. Naive Bayes is used as a method in the classification process by comparing the probability values generated from the variable value of each model to determine the stage of Ambon banana maturity. The data used is the primary data image of 105 pieces of Ambon banana. By using 3 models which consists of different variables obtained the same greatest average accuracy by using the 2nd model which has 9 variable values (r, g, b, v, * a, * b, entropy, energy, and homogeneity) and the 3rd model has 7 variable values (r, g, b, v , * a, entropy and homogeneity) that is 90.48%. Keywords: banana maturity, classification, image processing ABSTRAK Buah pisang merupakan komoditas yang memberikan kontribusi besar terhadap angka produksi buah nasional maupun internasional. Pemerintah melalui Badan Standarisasi Nasional menetapkan standar untuk buah pisang, menjaga mutu buah pisang. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah klasifikasi tahapan kematangan dari buah pisang ambon berdasarkan indeks warna menggunakan metode Naïve Bayes sesuai dengan SNI 7422:2009. Naive bayes digunakan sebagai metode dalam proses pengklasifikasian dengan cara membandingkan nilai probabilitas yang dihasilkan dari nilai variabel penduga setiap model untuk menentukan tahap kematangan pisang ambon. Data yang digunakan adalah data primer citra pisang ambon sebanyak 105. Dengan menggunakan 3 buah model yang terdiri dari variabel penduga yang berbeda didapatkan akurasi rata-rata terbesar yang sama yaitu dengan menggunakan model ke-2 yang mempunyai 9 nilai variabel (r, g, b, v, *a, *b, entropi, energi, dan homogenitas) dan model ke-3 yang mempunyai 7 nilai variabel (r, g, b, v, *a, entropi dan homogenitas) yaitu sebesar 90.48%. Kata Kunci : kematangan pisang, klasifikasi, pengolahan citra

Download Full-text

Levels taxation countries the EU and Ukraine’s

Problems of Innovation and Investment Development ◽

10.33813/2224-1213.19.2019.12 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 131-160

Author(s):

Helena Borzenko ◽

Tamara Panfilova ◽

Mikhail Litvin

Keyword(s):

European Union ◽

Uniform Distribution ◽

Tax Burden ◽

Tax System ◽

Tax Legislation ◽

Improvement Process ◽

Tax Systems ◽

Historical Comparative ◽

Different Levels ◽

The Eu

Purpose articles rassm and experience and benefits systems taxation countries European Union, manifestation iti the main limitations domestic taxlegislation and wired STI their comparisons. In general iti ways the provisiontax reporting countries Eurozone in the appropriate organs, dove STI need theintroduction Ukraine electronic methods receiving and processing such reports.define iti key directions reforming domestic tax legislation. Methodology research is to use aggregate methods: dialectical, statistical, historical, comparative. Scientific novelty is to are provided recommendations for improvement ofefficiency systems taxation of our states in international ratings characterizingtax institutions country. Therefore, despite some problems in legislation heldcomparative study systems taxation EU and Ukraine. Conclucions Coming fromof this, the main directions reforming tax systems Ukraine, in our opinion,today should become: improvement process administration, reduce scales evasiontaxes, provision more uniform distribution tax burden between taxpayers, themaximum cooperation tax bodies different levels as well adjustment systemselectronic interactions tax authorities and payers, tax system must contain ascan less unfounded benefits, consistent with the general by politics pricing.

Download Full-text

Statistical Justification of Pearson's Criterion for Testing a Complex Hypothesis on the Uniform Distribution

Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science ◽

10.24108/0418.0001392 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 45-53

Author(s):

T. V. Oblakova

Keyword(s):

Uniform Distribution ◽

Degrees Of Freedom ◽

Likelihood Function ◽

Random Number Generator ◽

Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽

Chi Square ◽

Main Hypothesis ◽

Pearson Criterion ◽

Complex Hypothesis ◽

Uniform Law

The paper is studying the justification of the Pearson criterion for checking the hypothesis on the uniform distribution of the general totality. If the distribution parameters are unknown, then estimates of the theoretical frequencies are used [1, 2, 3]. In this case the quantile of the chi-square distribution with the number of degrees of freedom, reduced by the number of parameters evaluated, is used to determine the upper threshold of the main hypothesis acceptance [7]. However, in the case of a uniform law, the application of Pearson's criterion does not extend to complex hypotheses, since the likelihood function does not allow differentiation with respect to parameters, which is used in the proof of the theorem mentioned [7, 10, 11].A statistical experiment is proposed in order to study the distribution of Pearson statistics for samples from a uniform law. The essence of the experiment is that at first a statistically significant number of one-type samples from a given uniform distribution is modeled, then for each sample Pearson statistics are calculated, and then the law of distribution of the totality of these statistics is studied. Modeling and processing of samples were performed in the Mathcad 15 package using the built-in random number generator and array processing facilities.In all the experiments carried out, the hypothesis that the Pearson statistics conform to the chi-square law was unambiguously accepted (confidence level 0.95). It is also statistically proved that the number of degrees of freedom in the case of a complex hypothesis need not be corrected. That is, the maximum likelihood estimates of the uniform law parameters implicitly used in calculating Pearson statistics do not affect the number of degrees of freedom, which is thus determined by the number of grouping intervals only.

Download Full-text

Determination of the Prospective Processed Cacao Product and Calculation of the Added Value in Agro-Tourism Based on Cacao Agroindustry in Pidie Jaya Regency

Acta Universitatis Cibiniensis Series E Food Technology ◽

10.2478/aucft-2018-0004 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 33-42

Author(s):

◽

Tajuddin Bantacut ◽

Sapta Raharja

Keyword(s):

System Approach ◽

Added Value ◽

Assessment Criteria ◽

Cocoa Bean ◽

Cocoa Beans ◽

Bayes Method ◽

Cocoa Products ◽

Processed Products ◽

Derivative Products

Abstract Utilization of cocoa bean to be a derivative products in industrial is wide enough, that it is necessary to determine the priority of the processed products development. This study aimed to determine the prospective processed cocoa products with a system approach using Bayes method and assessed the potential of added value by using Hayami method. Based on several assessment criteria indicated that chocolate bar is the priority product that needs to be developed and followed by several other processed products. This development was able to produce the added value of Rp 135.000 per kg of cocoa beans. Result indicated that by processing the cocoa beans into chocolate bar could provide a considerable income for the businessman.

Download Full-text