Evaluation of short‐term market opportunities for agricultural commodities: The use of market windows

Abstract This paper combines deep Q network (DQN) with long and short-term memory (LSTM) and proposes a novel hybrid deep learning method called DQN-LSTM framework. The proposed method aims to address the prediction of five Chinese agricultural commodities futures prices over different time duration. The DQN-LSTM applies the strategy enhancement of deep reinforcement learning to the structural parameter optimization of deep recurrent networks, and achieves the organic integration of two types of deep learning algorithms. The new framework has the capacity of self-optimization and learning of parameters, thus improving the performance of prediction by its own iteration, which shows great prospects for future application in financial prediction and other directions. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing the effectiveness of the DQN-LSTM method with that of traditional predicting methods such as auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector machine (SVR) and LSTM. The results show that the DQN-LSTM method can effectively optimize the traditional LSTM structural parameters through policy iteration of the deep reinforcement learning algorithm, which contributes to a better long and short-term prediction accuracy. In particular, the longer the prediction period, the more obvious the advantage of prediction accuracy of a DQN-LSTM method.

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Dynamic and Volatility of World Agricultural Market Prices: Impacts on Importations and Food Security in WAEMU

International Journal of Economics and Finance ◽

10.5539/ijef.v9n12p180 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (12) ◽

pp. 180 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Baoubadi Atozou ◽

Koffi Akakpo

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Low Income ◽

Price Volatility ◽

The United States ◽

Agricultural Commodities ◽

Short Term ◽

Causality Test ◽

Member States ◽

Distributed Lag

Over the last decade, the use of foodstuffs such as corn, wheat and soybean in biofuels production has been growing sharply in the United States, Canada and Europe. This growth has increased total demand for agricultural commodities and stimulated agricultural prices. However, corn, rice, wheat and soybean are the most important sources of calorific energy for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) member states’ population, and WAEMU countries are highly dependent on the imports of these products. Consequently, rising prices can have an important impact on imports and severe consequences on food security in these developing countries. This paper aims to investigate: (i) the short-term and long-term relationships between the prices of corn, rice, wheat, soybean and oil and their volatilities, and (ii) the effects of these agricultural commodities prices shocks on the imports of each WAEMU member states. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model and the Granger causality test are used in this investigation. The results show that imports of agricultural commodities in WAEMU countries are highly and significantly sensitive to price changes in international market. In short term as well as in long term, there is a significant relationship between the prices of these products. We find a positive relationship in general between prices volatilities, and negative effects of price volatility on imports. Thus, distortions in world agricultural markets threaten considerably food security in WAEMU countries, especially access to food for vulnerable and low-income populations. Policy makers must adopt viable strategies to increase agricultural production and limit their dependence on imports.

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What makes Hungarian SMEs perform poorly?

Acta Oeconomica ◽

10.1556/aoecon.53.2003.2.1 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 53 (2) ◽

pp. 109-143 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

I. Major

Keyword(s):

Allocative Efficiency ◽

Economic Transformation ◽

Government Policies ◽

Financial Resources ◽

External Financing ◽

Limited Information ◽

Factor Productivity ◽

Short Term ◽

Corporate Values ◽

Market Opportunities

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been the target of supportive government policies since economic transformation began in Hungary although the birth of a strong and healthy layer of SMEs has not been observed in the country up to now. In this article the issue of why this has not happened is addressed. Empirical evidence suggested that Hungarian SMEs are not usually driven by the corporate values of Max Weber’s “protestant ethics”; instead, they aim at short-term financial enrichment. Hungarian SMEs cannot usually “climb the ladder” and turn into large enterprises – indeed, their survival period is relatively short. Nickell (1996) argued that (total factor) productivity rather than profitability would reflect a company’s efficiency level. Using frontier production and frontier profit functions there is an attempt here to prove that “technical (or allocative) efficiency” and “profit efficiency” both have a distinct role to play in explaining a firm’s economic performance; and by applying limited information maximum likelihood models of SME profit gaps it will be shown that cost inefficiencies and unfavourable market conditions — alongside the inefficient allocation of factors of production — inevitably lead to the fairly low level of SME profitability. The most important finding of the analysis is that employment has been a crucial factor in explaining the profit deviation of companies. Building on the results of Köllő (2001) the article argues that SMEs regard labour as flexible stock. Companies will seek out new labour if they find new market opportunities — but until these appear, they tend to remain in the arena of diminishing returns, this being the easiest way for them to maximise profits. Downgraded production activities do not attract substantial external financing. Yet a lack of financial resources when new market opportunities do emerge will prevent an SME from exploiting the chance.

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Next Generation B2B Commerce Using Software Agents

Electronic Commerce ◽

10.4018/978-1-59904-943-4.ch168 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 2177-2199

Author(s):

Kaushal Chari ◽

Saravanan Seshadri

Keyword(s):

Information Technology ◽

21St Century ◽

Enterprise Systems ◽

It Infrastructure ◽

Next Generation ◽

Short Term ◽

Business Partners ◽

Market Opportunities ◽

Business To Business

Enterprises in the 21st century are striving to be agile in order to take advantage of the transient market opportunities. Enterprises are engaging in business-to-business (B2B) commerce with business partners by entering into short-term as well as long-term business arrangements using various technologies such as electronic exchanges. In order for the enterprises to be successful in their business endeavors, a key requirement is that the underlying information technology (IT) infrastructure in enterprises be intelligent and flexible enough to adapt to various changes in the market opportunities quickly. In this chapter, we first examine the information technology (IT) infrastructure requirements for intelligent enterprises in supporting B2B commerce. We then review agents technology and propose an agents-based architecture to support B2B commerce. This architecture covers electronic exchanges and enterprise systems for B2B commerce. Finally, we present some workflows to show how B2B commerce can be conducted using the agents-based architecture.

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Trade protectionism and agriculture

Outlook on Agriculture ◽

10.1177/003072708001000605 ◽

1980 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 293-297

Author(s):

J S Hillman

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

World Economy ◽

Slow Growth ◽

Agricultural Commodities ◽

Short Term ◽

The World

The proliferation in recent years of non-tariff restrictions on trade in agricultural commodities gives cause for concern. Not a few of these restrictions serve short term political ends and are not in the best or widest interests of the industry. Freer trade can solve many of the problems of slow growth, inflation and unemployment by moving the world economy to greater efficiency. Continued and increased protection will cost both developed and developing countries dear.

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Short-term overreaction in equity ETFs following extreme one-day returns

Revista Contabilidade & Finanças ◽

10.1590/1808-057x201807630 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 30 (81) ◽

pp. 352-367

Author(s):

Júlio Lobão ◽

Ana Isabel Costa

Keyword(s):

Cross Section ◽

Extended Period ◽

Stock Exchanges ◽

Short Term ◽

Price Reversal ◽

Market Opportunities ◽

After Hours ◽

The Cross ◽

Price Movements ◽

Extreme Returns

Abstract This paper investigates the short-term price predictability of US equity Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs) in reaction to one-day extreme returns. We also assess the cross-section features associated to price overreaction following extreme price movements. The literature on the short-term overreaction of ETFs is rather scarce. Furthermore, existing studies tend to focus on delimited historical periods, which makes their results difficult to generalize. Our paper fills this gap by considering a comprehensive sample of ETFs over an extended period of time. In addition, we are the first to study the effect of the prevailing market trend and of liquidity on the patterns of overreaction and subsequent price reversal of ETFs. Being the major ETFs the most actively traded equity securities on the US stock exchanges, their performance and characteristics are of interest by themselves. Our findings suggest that market regulators should concentrate their resources on overseeing the ETF pricing that occurs after-hours. For market practitioners, our results indicate the existence of profitable market opportunities after large price movements. In the present study, we tested the significance of the mean returns for the period immediately after extreme returns. We also conducted a multivariate analysis where the price reversal was regressed against the cross section features of the ETFs under study. We contribute to the literature on ETF price formation as we document, for the first time, the existence of a stark contrast in the reaction to extreme price movements in these assets during normal hours and after-hours periods. On average, the extreme returns that occur in the after-hours period represent an overreaction, leading to a price reversal in the following period. In addition, we show that both tax-motivated trading and noise trading play a role in the pattern of ETF overreaction and reversal.

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Making the most of short-term flexibility in the balancing market: Opportunities and challenges of voluntary bids in the new balancing market design

Energy Policy ◽

10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112522 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 158 ◽

pp. 112522

Author(s):

Ksenia Poplavskaya ◽

Jesus Lago ◽

Stefan Strömer ◽

Laurens de Vries

Keyword(s):

Market Design ◽

Short Term ◽

Market Opportunities

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Next Generation B2B Commerce Using Software Agents

Intelligent Enterprises of the 21st Century ◽

10.4018/978-1-59140-160-5.ch005 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 67-91

Author(s):

Kaushal Chari ◽

Saravanan Seshadri

Keyword(s):

Information Technology ◽

21St Century ◽

Enterprise Systems ◽

It Infrastructure ◽

Next Generation ◽

Short Term ◽

Business Partners ◽

Market Opportunities ◽

Business To Business

Enterprises in the 21st century are striving to be agile in order to take advantage of the transient market opportunities. Enterprises are engaging in business-to-business (B2B) commerce with business partners by entering into short-term as well as long-term business arrangements using various technologies such as electronic exchanges. In order for the enterprises to be successful in their business endeavors, a key requirement is that the underlying information technology (IT) infrastructure in enterprises be intelligent and flexible enough to adapt to various changes in the market opportunities quickly. In this chapter, we first examine the information technology (IT) infrastructure requirements for intelligent enterprises in supporting B2B commerce. We then review agents technology and propose an agents-based architecture to support B2B commerce. This architecture covers electronic exchanges and enterprise systems for B2B commerce. Finally, we present some workflows to show how B2B commerce can be conducted using the agents-based architecture.

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Adult Education, Stratification, and Regime Change: Upgrading and Sidestepping in Russia, 1965–2005

Sociology of Education ◽

10.1177/0038040718823192 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 92 (2) ◽

pp. 124-149 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yuliya Kosyakova ◽

Theodore P. Gerber

Keyword(s):

Adult Education ◽

Later Life ◽

Political Regime ◽

The Political ◽

Short Term ◽

Educational History ◽

Selection Processes ◽

Market Opportunities ◽

The Impact

Adult education influences how labor market opportunities are structured in the later life course. We propose a theoretical framework for understanding the stratifying role of adult education resting on the distinction between two forms of adult education—upgrading and sidestepping: Resources, incentives, and selection processes systematically structure rates of participation. Using educational history data from Russia, we test hypotheses derived from our framework and examine the impact of the Soviet collapse and the ensuing economic recovery. Upgrading exacerbates patterns of socioeconomic stratification by delivering better credentials to individuals with higher levels of initial resources. Sidestepping is less common than upgrading and less related to socioeconomic origins and previous attainment. The Soviet collapse produced short-term declines in the rates of both upgrading and sidestepping. However, once growth resumed, market institutions proved durable, and the political regime stabilized, rates of upgrading soared to levels exceeding those of the Soviet era.

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The Growth of the Firm—A Case Study: The Hercules Powder Company

The Business History Review ◽

10.2307/3111776 ◽

1960 ◽

Vol 34 (1) ◽

pp. 1-23 ◽

Cited By ~ 134

Author(s):

Edith T. Penrose

Keyword(s):

Supply And Demand ◽

Dynamic Interaction ◽

Short Term ◽

Product Demand ◽

Market Opportunities ◽

Available Resources

Growth is governed by a creative and dynamic interaction between a firm's productive resources and its market opportunities. Available resources limit expansion; unused resources (including technological and entrepreneurial) stimulate and largely determine the direction of expansion. While product demand may exert a predominant short-term influence, over the long term any distinction between “supply” and “demand” determinants of growth becomes arbitrary.

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