scholarly journals Dynamic and Volatility of World Agricultural Market Prices: Impacts on Importations and Food Security in WAEMU

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baoubadi Atozou ◽  
Koffi Akakpo
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Member States ◽  
Distributed Lag

Over the last decade, the use of foodstuffs such as corn, wheat and soybean in biofuels production has been growing sharply in the United States, Canada and Europe. This growth has increased total demand for agricultural commodities and stimulated agricultural prices. However, corn, rice, wheat and soybean are the most important sources of calorific energy for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) member states’ population, and WAEMU countries are highly dependent on the imports of these products. Consequently, rising prices can have an important impact on imports and severe consequences on food security in these developing countries. This paper aims to investigate: (i) the short-term and long-term relationships between the prices of corn, rice, wheat, soybean and oil and their volatilities, and (ii) the effects of these agricultural commodities prices shocks on the imports of each WAEMU member states. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model and the Granger causality test are used in this investigation. The results show that imports of agricultural commodities in WAEMU countries are highly and significantly sensitive to price changes in international market. In short term as well as in long term, there is a significant relationship between the prices of these products. We find a positive relationship in general between prices volatilities, and negative effects of price volatility on imports. Thus, distortions in world agricultural markets threaten considerably food security in WAEMU countries, especially access to food for vulnerable and low-income populations. Policy makers must adopt viable strategies to increase agricultural production and limit their dependence on imports.

Effect of economic crisis on suicide cases: An ARDL bounds testing approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Şenol Demirci ◽  
Murat Konca ◽  
Birol Yetim ◽  
Gülnur İlgün
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

Background: Suicide events observed in various groups, community or countries, especially in the periods of economic recession. It is thought that suicide cases increase when people’s income decreases dramatically and they lose their jobs. Aim/Objective: In this study, it was aimed to investigate whether the 2008 economic crisis had any effect on suicides in the United States. Methods: Autoregressive distributed lag method was used. For the purpose of the study, the number of suicide-related deaths was taken as the dependent variable, while unemployment rates and 2008 economic crisis were taken as independent variables. Findings: The short-term and long-term relationships obtained within the scope of the study indicated that the 2008 economic crisis had a statistically significant effect on suicide cases in the United States. Results and Conclusion: It can be said that the results of this study are consistent with the information which emphasizes that economic crises increase suicide cases in the literature.

scholarly journals Indonesian Export Analysis: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syarifah Labibah ◽  
Abd. Jamal ◽  
Taufiq C. Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive

There are some factors predicted tohave an effect on the countries’ economic devlopment. This study aimed to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of In-flation, Exchange Rate, and Foreign Economic Growth (the destination of the United States, China, and Japan) on the Indonesian Export. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model is used in this analysis from 1968 through 2017. The results of the analysis show that in the long-term, the inflation and the economic growth in China as well in Japan has a positive sign and significant effect on Indonesian exports. In addition, in the short-term, the US exchange rate and economic growth have a positive significant effect on Indonesian exports.

The Future of Muslim Education in the United States: An Agenda for Research

2003 ◽  
Vol 20 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 46-82
Author(s):  
Fathi Malkawi
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
American Education ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Muslim Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Muslim Education ◽  
Future Plans

This paper addresses some of the Muslim community’s concerns regarding its children’s education and reflects upon how education has shaped the position of other communities in American history. It argues that the future of Muslim education will be influenced directly by the present realities and future trends within American education in general, and, more importantly, by the well-calculated and informed short-term and long-term decisions and future plans taken by the Muslim community. The paper identifies some areas in which a wellestablished knowledge base is critical to making decisions, and calls for serious research to be undertaken to furnish this base.

GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY AMID THE GLOBAL CRISIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 134-141
Author(s):  
P. M. TARANOV ◽  
◽  
A. S. PANASYUK ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Food Problem ◽  
Supply Problem ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Food Security Indicators ◽  
Security Indicators ◽  
Global Food

The authors assess the prospects for solving the global food problem based on an analysis of the dynamics of food security indicators at the global and regional levels. The global food problem at work refers to the growing population of a planet affected by hunger and other forms of malnutrition. The food security situation has worsened for five years - in 2015–2019, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the food supply problem. The prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity has affected more than 25% of the world's population. In lowincome countries, malnutrition affects more than 58% of the population. Food security is threatened by the consequences of the spread of coronavirus infection in the short term. In the medium and long term, climate change and the crisis in the governance of the world economy are the greatest threats. Modern international economic institutions are unable to withstand the prospect of declining global food security.

Unfolding the case of returnees: How the European Union and its member States are addressing the return of foreign fighters and their families

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Carlota Rigotti ◽  
Júlia Zomignani Barboza
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Perceived Threat ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Member States ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
Term Response

Abstract The return of foreign fighters and their families to the European Union has mostly been considered a security threat by member States, which consequently adopt repressive measures aimed at providing an immediate, short-term response to this perceived threat. In addition to this strong-arm approach, reintegration strategies have also been used to prevent returnees from falling back into terrorism and to break down barriers of hostility between citizens in the long term. Amidst these different strategies, this paper seeks to identify which methods are most desirable for handling returnees.

Italy's politics without policy: Balancing Atlanticism and Europeanism in the Middle East

Modern Italy ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaella A. Del Sarto ◽  
Nathalie Tocci
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Specific Interests ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
The Eu

Focusing on Italy's Middle East policies under the second Berlusconi (2001–2006) and the second Prodi (2006–2008) governments, this article assesses the manner and extent to which the observed foreign policy shifts between the two governments can be explained in terms of the rebalancing between a ‘Europeanist’ and a transatlantic orientation. Arguing that Rome's policy towards the Middle East hinges less on Italy's specific interests and objectives in the region and more on whether the preference of the government in power is to foster closer ties to the United States or concentrate on the European Union, the analysis highlights how these swings of the pendulum along the EU–US axis are inextricably linked to a number of underlying structural weaknesses of Rome's foreign policy. In particular, the oscillations can be explained by the prevalence of short-term political (and domestic) considerations and the absence of long-term, substantive political strategies, or, in short, by the phenomenon of ‘politics without policy’ that often characterises Italy's foreign policy.

scholarly journals Imagining Her Future: Diversity in Mothers’ Socialization Goals for Their Adolescent Daughters

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 593-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Ramirez ◽  
Linda Oshin ◽  
Stephanie Milan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African American ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Low Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Traits ◽  
Socialization Goals ◽  
Racial Ethnic ◽  
Q Sort

According to developmental niche theory, members of different cultural and ethnic groups often have distinct ideas about what children need to become well-adapted adults. These beliefs are reflected in parents’ long-term socialization goals for their children. In this study, we test whether specific themes that have been deemed important in literature on diverse families in the United States (e.g., Strong Black Woman [SBW], marianismo, familismo) are evident in mothers’ long-term socialization goals. Participants included 192 mothers of teenage daughters from a low-income city in the United States (58% Latina, 22% African American, and 20% European American [EA]/White). Socialization goals were assessed through a q-sort task on important traits for a woman to possess and content analysis of open-ended responses about what values mothers hoped they would transmit to their daughters as they become adults. Results from ANCOVAs and logistic regression indicate significant racial/ethnic differences on both tasks consistent with hypotheses. On the q-sort task, African American mothers put more importance on women possessing traits such as independence than mothers from other racial/ethnic groups. Similarly, they were more likely to emphasize self-confidence and strength in what they hoped to transmit to their daughters. Contrary to expectation, Latina mothers did not emphasize social traits on the q-sort; however, in open-ended responses, they were more likely to focus on the importance of motherhood, one aspect of marianismo and familismo. Overall, results suggest that these mothers’ long-term socialization goals incorporate culturally relevant values considered important for African American and Latino families.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment Led Growth Hypothesis and Economic Development in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 376-393
Author(s):  
Ubong Edem Effiong ◽  
Nora Francis Inyang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This study was an inquiry into the nexus of the foreign-direct investment (FDI) led growth hypothesis, and how it translates into the development of the Nigerian economy as of 1970 – 2018. The study utilized secondary data from the ‘World Development Indicators’ which were analysed using the Bounds test for cointegration and the ‘autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to divulge both the short-term cum the long-term influence of foreign direct investment net inflow on ‘economic development’ of Nigeria. The Bounds test was conducted after the unit root test revealed that the variables were stationary at mixed order of level and first difference. The outcome of the ARDL Bounds test supported confirmation of long-term association among the variables. The ARDL short-run error correction showed that 14.62% of the instability in the model was corrected yearly. In the short-term, it was discovered that FDI wielded a deleterious and substantial weight on ‘economic development of Nigeria. Meanwhile, the long-term estimates indicated that FDI influenced economic development positively, though not in a significant manner. The Granger causality test supported the fact that FDI causes ‘economic development’ in Nigeria. Given this potential of FDI exerting a positive effect on ‘economic development’, the paper recommended that bottlenecks inherent in FDI influxes in the country should be removed so as to reap the fullest benefits of such inflows in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saliha Meftah ◽  
Abdelkader Nassour
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Causality Relationship

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an essential factor in the development of a country. This study aims to examine what factors influence foreign direct investment. By using the vector error correction model, the research shows that there is a long-term causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation with FDI. However, in the short term, there are no variables that affect FDI. Besides, the Granger causality test shows causality in the direction of GDP and FDI, while other variables do not have causality. This research has implications for policymakers to pay attention to macroeconomic variables in increasing the flow of foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals Will the COVID-19 pandemic lead to a tsunami of suicides? A Swedish nationwide analysis of historical and 2020 data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Rück ◽  
David Mataix-Cols ◽  
Kinda Malki ◽  
Mats Adler ◽  
Oskar Flygare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Influenza Pandemics ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Media

ABSTRACTBackgroundVarious surveys have documented a negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the population’s mental health. There is widespread concern about a surge of suicides, but evidence supporting a link between global pandemics and suicide is very limited. Using historical data from the three major influenza pandemics of the 20th century, and recently released data from the first half of 2020, we aimed to investigate whether an association exists between influenza deaths and suicide deaths.MethodsAnnual data on influenza death rates and suicide rates were extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Sweden from 1910-1978, covering the three 20th century pandemics, and from Statistics Sweden for the period from January to June of each year during 2000-2020. COVID-19 death data were available for the first half of 2020. We implemented non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models to explore if there is a short-term and/or long-term effect of increases and decreases in influenza death rates on suicide rates during 1910-1978. Analyses were done separately for men and women. Descriptive analyses were used for the available 2020 data.FindingsBetween 1910-1978, there was no evidence of either short-term or long-term significant associations between influenza death rates and changes in suicides. The same pattern emerged in separate analyses for men and women. Suicide rates in January-June 2020 revealed a slight decrease compared to the corresponding rates in January-June 2019 (relative decrease by −1.2% among men and −12.8% among women).InterpretationWe found no evidence of short or long-term association between influenza death rates and suicide death rates across three 20th century pandemics or during the first six months of 2020 (when the first wave of COVID-19 occurred). Concerns about a substantial increase of suicides may be exaggerated. The media should be cautious when reporting news about suicides during the current pandemic.

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