Responses of output in Poland to shocks to the exchange rate, the stock price, and other macroeconomic variables: a VAR model

2006 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 1017-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Pendekatan Anova dalam Menentukan Keputusan Investasi pada Perusahaan Perkebunan di Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-116
Author(s):  
Suyono Suyono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Hypothesis Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Plantation Company

The growth of companies in the plantation sector, it can be assumed that the plantation sector in Indonesia is still classified as a potential. so that it can be a benchmark for many investors in investing in the plantation sector. One of the indicators in investing can be seen from the financial performance, the company's stock price and the exchange rate. The study found that there were differences between financial performance, stock prices and the exchange rate of plantation sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2015-2018. This research was conducted as a measure of investors to invest in companies. This research method uses a quantitative approach because to find out and analyze differences in financial performance, stock prices and macroeconomic variables in plantation companies with a different approach and test the correctness of existing theories. While the hypothesis test used is the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) method. The results showed there was no difference between the stock price and the exchange rate (KURS) of the company. Whereas the financial performance variable (ROA) points to a significant difference between the financial performance of one plantation company from another during the priod 2015-2018. Keywords: Stock Prices, Financial Performance (ROA), Macroeconomics (KURS)

scholarly journals Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?

2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 552-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Bacchetta ◽  
Eric van Wincoop
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Order Flow ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Symmetric Information ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Empirical evidence shows that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flow and not to macroeconomic variables. We introduce symmetric information dispersion about future macroeconomic fundamentals in a dynamic rational expectations model in order to explain these stylized facts. Consistent with the evidence, the model implies that (a) observed fundamentals account for little of exchange rate volatility in the short to medium run, (b) over long horizons, the exchange rate is closely related to observed fundamentals, (c) exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals, and (d) the exchange rate is closely related to order flow.

Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and sovereign credit default swap in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 368-380
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Farooq Ahmad ◽  
Ammara Yasmin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose This paper aims to empirically examine the long- and short-run relationship between macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, interest rates, exports, imports, foreign reserves and the rate of inflation) and sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) spreads for Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore the level relationship between the macroeconomic variables and SCDS spreads. The error correction model is estimated to examine the short-run effects of the underlying macroeconomic variables on SCDS spreads. Finally, the long-run estimates are obtained in the ARDL framework. The study uses monthly data covering the period January 2001-February 2015. Findings The results indicate that there is a significant long-run relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and SCDS spreads. The estimated long-run coefficients reveal that both the interest rate and foreign exchange reserves are significantly and negatively, whereas imports and the rate of inflation are positively related to SCDS spreads. Yet, the results suggest that the exchange rate and exports do not have any significant long-run impact on SCDS spreads. The findings regarding the short-run relationship indicate that the exchange rate, imports and the rate of inflation are positively, whereas the interest rate and exports are negatively related to SCDS spreads. Practical implications The results suggest that State Bank of Pakistan should design monetary and foreign exchange rate polices to minimize unwanted variations in the exchange rate to reduce SCDS spreads. The results also suggest that it is incumbent to Pakistan Government to improve the balance of payments to reduce SCDS spreads. The findings also suggest that the inflation targeting policy can also help in reducing SCDS spreads. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the empirical determinants of SCDS spreads for Pakistan. Second, it estimates the short- and long-run effects in the ARDL framework. Third, it considers both internal and external empirical determinants of SCDS spreads.

MODELING THE INTERACTIONS OF STOCK PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN MALAYSIA

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (04) ◽  
pp. 605-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHD TAHIR ISMAIL ◽  
ZAIDI BIN ISA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Stock Price Index

After the East Asian crisis in 1997, the issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related or not have received much attention. This is due to realization that during the crisis the countries affected saw turmoil in both their currencies and stock markets. This paper studies the non-linear interactions between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia using a two regimes multivariate Markov switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) model with regime shifts in both the mean and the variance. In the study, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and the exchange rates of Malaysia ringgit against four other countries namely the Singapore dollar, the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling and the Australian dollar between 1990 and 2005 are used. The empirical results show that all the series are not cointegrated but the MS-VAR model with two regimes manage to detect common regime shifts behavior in all the series. The estimated MS-VAR model reveals that as the stock price index falls the exchange rates depreciate and when the stock price index gains the exchange rates appreciate. In addition, the MS-VAR model fitted the data better than the linear vector autoregressive model (VAR).

scholarly journals The Role of Exchange Rates in the Stock Price Development of Chemical Companies in the Visegrad Four Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 117-129
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková ◽  
Nikola Rusková
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Pharmaceutical Industry ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Chemical Companies ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effect of exchange rates on the stock prices of companies in the chemical industry listed on the stock exchanges in the Visegrad Four countries. The empirical analysis was performed from September 2003 to June 2016 on companies from the petrochemical and pharmaceutical industry. The effect of the exchange rate on stock prices is analyzed using Jorion’s approach on monthly data. In contrast to the selected petrochemical companies, the pharmaceutical companies did not use any hedging instruments in the tested period. The effect of the exchange rate on the stock price was proved only in the case of companies from the pharmaceutical industry. This suggests that exchange rate risk could be eliminated by using hedging instruments.

scholarly journals The Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Financial Markets

Economies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Mirzosaid Sultonov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Stock Price Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s international comportment and geostrategic moves, particularly the invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, caused a substantial change in its international economic and political relations. In response to Russia’s invasion, the United States of America, the European Union, and their allies imposed a series of sanctions. In this study, by applying an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to daily logarithmic returns of the ruble exchange rate and the closing price index of the Russian Trading System, we analyze how the returns and volatility of the exchange rate and the stock price index responded to the sanctions and oil price changes. The estimation results show that the sanctions have a significant positive short-term impact on exchange rate returns. Economic sanctions have a significant negative long-term impact on the returns and variance of the exchange rate and a significant positive long-term impact on the returns of the stock price index. Financial sanctions have a positive/negative long-term impact on the returns of the exchange rate/stock price index and a positive long-term impact on the variance of the exchange rate and the stock price index. Corporate sanctions have a positive long-term impact on exchange rate returns.

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA DAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP HARGA SSAHAM PERUSAHAAN SEKTOR PROPERTI DAN REAL ESTATE YANG TERCATAT DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fitri Ramadani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Thepurpose of this research is to knowthe influence of inflation,interestrates, and the exchange rate of the rupiah against the stock price. This research wasconducted on 30 companies secto rproperty and real estatelisted onthe IndonesiastockexchangePeriod 2012 – 2014. Data analysis techniques used in research namely OLS (Ordinary Least Square)through the help of multiple software SPSS version 18.0. Research results indicate that simultaneous inflation, interest rates, the rupiah exchanger ateand effect on stock prices. Research partially indicate that inflation is not a negative and apositive effect against the stock price, while the negative effect of interest rates significantly to the stock price and the exchange rate of rupiah apositive significant effect against the stock price.

scholarly journals Investigation of Turkey and Azerbaijan Economy Macroeconomic Variables

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volkan Öngel ◽  
Hasan Sadık Tatlı ◽  
Gözde Bozkurt
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The One ◽  
Data Frequency

The study aims to determine the presence or absence of causality relationship between economic growth, employment, inflation, exchange rate, import, export in Turkey, and Azerbaijan. In the study, the two countries' annual frequency data from 1992-2018 were analyzed with the Granger causality test. According to the study, the employment rate of GDP growth appears to be the one-way Granger cause for Turkey. Also, it has been determined that the import and exchange rate is caused to the employment rate. It was observed that GDP growth and export were active on inflation and were Granger cause to inflation. It is determined that GDP growth in Azerbaijan is Granger cause to exchange rate and employment. It is also observed that the exchange rate affects inflation. According to the findings, GDP growth has an impact on the employment rate in both countries. While GDP growth is found to be active over inflation in Turkey, it is seen to be valid on the exchange rate in Azerbaijan. Research differs from similar studies in the literature in terms of variables used and countries. The findings of the research have some limitations. The data frequency used in the research starts in 1992, depending on Azerbaijan gaining its independence in 1991. The data used in the research are on an annual basis. Also, local/regional and global crisis effects have been ignored for both countries.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH FAKTOR VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII) PERIODE 2010 – 2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Herni Ali
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

The aim of this study is examining the relationship between cointergration and causality levels of Exchange Rate, GDP, BI interest rates and inflation on Islamic Capital Markets. The data used in this study is a quantitative secondary data in the form of time series of the period January 2010 to December 2013. The test were conducted with the approach of multiple regression models with variable index research JII (Y), the exchange rate (X1), GDP (X2) , BI rate (X3) and inflation (X4) as for hypothesis testing performed using SPSS statistical software. From the results obtained by testing the hypothesis that: a positive effect on the exchange rate, positive effect on GDP, interest harga sewa rates BI negative effect and inflation positive effect on JII. Simultanious testing into four macroeconomic variables affect the JII.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v3i2.2061   

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