Sharing information in a high uncertainty environment: lessons from the divergent differentiation supply chain

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Hsi Hung ◽  
Chieh-Pin Lin ◽  
Chin-Fu Ho
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Divergent Differentiation ◽  
Uncertainty Environment ◽  
High Uncertainty

Analysis of predictive performance in the Eromanga Basin

2012 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 678
Author(s):  
Steven McIntyre
Keyword(s):  
Large Data ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Environment Analysis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
High Level ◽  
Uncertainty Environment ◽  
High Uncertainty ◽  
Eromanga Basin

Strategic and operational management in the exploration and production business is characterised by prediction and decision making in a data-rich, high-uncertainty environment. Analysis of predictive performance since the 1970s by multiple researchers indicates that predictions are subject to over-confidence and optimism negatively impacting performance. The situation is the same for other areas of human endeavour also operating within data-rich, high-uncertainty environments. Research in the fields of psychology and neuroscience indicates the way in which the human brain perceives, integrates and allocates significance to data is the cause. Significant effort has been dedicated to improving the quality of predictions. Many individual companies review their predictive performance during long periods, but few share their data or analysis with the industry at large. Data that is shared is generally presented at a high level, reducing transparency and making it difficult to link the analysis to the geology and data from which predictions are derived. This extended abstract presents an analysis of predictive performance from the Eromanga Basin where pre-drill predictions and detailed production data during a period of decades is available in the public domain, providing an opportunity to test the veracity of past observations and conclusions. Analysis of the dataset indicates that predictions made using both deterministic and probabilistic methodologies have been characterised by over-confidence and optimism. The reasons for this performance are discussed and suggestions for improving predictive capability provided.

Memahami Dinamika Bekerja dalam Ketidakpastian: Tinjauan Fenomenologis Pengalaman Bekerja Pengemudi Ojek Online

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-266
Author(s):  
Luqman Tifa Perwira ◽  
Muhammad Hidayat
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Reduction Process ◽  
Phenomenological Approach ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
The Family ◽  
Task Identity ◽  
Minimum Criteria ◽  
Uncertainty Environment ◽  
High Uncertainty ◽  
Data Reduction Process

Employees of high technology company often facing rapid and unpredictable changes. This qualitative research aims to explore further how workers with high uncertainty working environment develop their strategies to be survived in this kind of environment. Online ojek driver works in high uncertainty environment where they have no clear employment status. The technology company who employs them only see them as a business partner which their relationship with the company could be terminated anytime. This qualitative research is conducted with phenomenological approach. Six ojek online driver respondents were chosen with minimum criteria: has been working in this field minimum 1 year, play a role as the main income earner in the family, and has the main job as online motor driver. Through a qualitative method with phenomenological approach, data analyzed by data reduction process resulted in five main themes: environmental uncertainty, task identity, values, strategy, and hope and themes of strategy to overcome those work situations and nature. Then the researcher developed an essential description or comprehensive construction about the meaning and the essence of the subjects’ experiences.

Designing a Dynamic Buyer-Supplier Coordination Model in Electronic Markets Using Stochastic Petri Nets

2011 ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iraj Mahdavi ◽  
Shima Mohebbi ◽  
Namjae Cho ◽  
Mohammad Mahdi Paydar ◽  
Nezam Mahdavi-Amiri
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Petri Nets ◽  
Coordination Mechanism ◽  
Stochastic Petri Nets ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Market Place ◽  
Coordination Model ◽  
Supply Chain Model ◽  
Uncertainty Environment

Functional relationship between supplier and buyer in an open market place leads to investigate the role of both quantifiable and non-quantifiable parameters in coordination mechanism with the aim of achieving higher performance in supply chain activities. Here, we develop a supply chain model and a new agent to analyze and simulate the players’ behavior in the network. A cooperative game theory framework is utilized between buyer and supplier in order to increase the supply chain performance. The study is supported by presenting SC Net Optimizer as a tool for implementing the proposed coordination mechanism and evaluates the performance of the chain by simulation using stochastic Petri nets (SPNs). The model provides a more realistic optimization process by taking into consideration the dynamic information flow in an uncertainty environment.

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