The project management adaptation of models of projects network scheduling in the high uncertainty environment

Author(s):  
G.A. Vinogradov ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 678
Author(s):  
Steven McIntyre

Strategic and operational management in the exploration and production business is characterised by prediction and decision making in a data-rich, high-uncertainty environment. Analysis of predictive performance since the 1970s by multiple researchers indicates that predictions are subject to over-confidence and optimism negatively impacting performance. The situation is the same for other areas of human endeavour also operating within data-rich, high-uncertainty environments. Research in the fields of psychology and neuroscience indicates the way in which the human brain perceives, integrates and allocates significance to data is the cause. Significant effort has been dedicated to improving the quality of predictions. Many individual companies review their predictive performance during long periods, but few share their data or analysis with the industry at large. Data that is shared is generally presented at a high level, reducing transparency and making it difficult to link the analysis to the geology and data from which predictions are derived. This extended abstract presents an analysis of predictive performance from the Eromanga Basin where pre-drill predictions and detailed production data during a period of decades is available in the public domain, providing an opportunity to test the veracity of past observations and conclusions. Analysis of the dataset indicates that predictions made using both deterministic and probabilistic methodologies have been characterised by over-confidence and optimism. The reasons for this performance are discussed and suggestions for improving predictive capability provided.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-266
Author(s):  
Luqman Tifa Perwira ◽  
Muhammad Hidayat

Employees of high technology company often facing rapid and unpredictable changes. This qualitative research aims to explore further how workers with high uncertainty working environment develop their strategies to be survived in this kind of environment. Online ojek driver works in high uncertainty environment where they have no clear employment status. The technology company who employs them only see them as a business partner which their relationship with the company could be terminated anytime. This qualitative research is conducted with phenomenological approach. Six ojek online driver respondents were chosen with minimum criteria: has been working in this field minimum 1 year, play a role as the main income earner in the family, and has the main job as online motor driver. Through a qualitative method with phenomenological approach, data analyzed by data reduction process resulted in five main themes: environmental uncertainty, task identity, values, strategy, and hope and themes of strategy to overcome those work situations and nature. Then the researcher developed an essential description or comprehensive construction about the meaning and the essence of the subjects’ experiences.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10542
Author(s):  
Unai Apaolaza ◽  
Aitor Lizarralde ◽  
Aitor Oyarbide-Zubillaga

Change and high uncertainty levels are the main characteristics of current project contexts. Years ago, the traditional project management faced problems when operating in these environments. Thus, at the end of the 20th century, new project management approaches were conceived to provide a more effective answer to such contexts. These methods propose a different approach, aimed at promoting the project flow by focusing on the short term. However, their adoption involves certain adjustments from a managerial perspective. The influence on the way resources are used is of special interest, as it may cause unexpected behaviors and reactions. The literature vastly analyzes the features and benefits of these methods. Nevertheless, there is a lack of empirical evidence about both the practical implications of the transition process toward them and their superior performance. Thus, this research aims to contribute to filling this gap by providing real-world based evidence related to the change process from a traditional project management approach to a flow-driven one. With this objective in mind, we analyzed the transition processes experienced by two design departments from companies of different industries. The results of the study confirm that the adoption of this type of approach can improve an organization’s performance and simplify its project management system. Therefore, we consider that our findings are useful for anybody interested in these methodologies. From the academic perspective, the evidence obtained in this study contributes to supporting the research works suggested by the literature. Furthermore, it can be helpful to guide further research and extend current knowledge. Additionally, they can assist companies in the improvement of their current project management approaches.


2021 ◽  
pp. 875697282110618
Author(s):  
J. Rodney Turner

Performance on megaprojects is dismal. Megaprojects are complex, but people use constructs inappropriate in complex situations for their management, particularly contractual arrangements based on principal–agent governance and conventional project management, which is good at solving puzzles, but not at enlightening mysteries. I review current thinking. Principal–steward contracting is a liberal governance structure required in complex situations. Conventional project management emphasizes control at the expense of innovation. In cases of high uncertainty, innovation is required as unexpected events occur. Scenario planning is offered as a way of approaching the management of complex megaprojects, to construct narratives, and to identify alternative outcomes.


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