scholarly journals Estimating Real Income in the United States from 1888 to 1994: Correcting CPI Bias Using Engel Curves

2001 ◽  
Vol 109 (6) ◽  
pp. 1288-1310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dora L. Costa
2004 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-270
Author(s):  
Michael R. Haines

This article examines declining adult human stature in the nineteenth century in three countries: the United States, England, and the Netherlands. While this was not unprecedented, these three relatively important nations did experience a deterioration in the biological standard of living at a time when economic development was proceeding at a goodly pace. England and the Netherlands were among the most urbanized countries in Europe at the time, while the United States was still predominantly rural and agrarian. The essay argues that a confluence of circumstances contributed to the worsening of the physical condition of these populations even while real income per capita was growing. Among the factors involved were rapid urbanization without adequate public health and sanitation; a transport revolution and related commercialization, which brought people and goods into much closer contact; the consequent integration of disease environments, both within and across nations; and a growing dependence of the working populations on wage income along with a probable growing inequality in wealth and income, exacerbating the impact of fluctuations in food prices. Technological change had an impact on these events by lowering the relative prices of industrial goods. While the term Malthusian crisis (i.e., a shortage of subsistence followed by a rise in mortality) seems inappropriate in these cases, a similar process may have been taking place. It suggests that such a crisis may not commence with an increase in mortality but rather with an adjustment of the human organism to new nutritional circumstances.


2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (9) ◽  
pp. 2731-2783 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle Handley ◽  
Nuno Limão

We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade, prices, and real income through firm entry investments in general equilibrium. We estimate and quantify the impact of trade policy on China's export boom to the United States following its 2001 WTO accession. We find the accession reduced the US threat of a trade war, which can account for over one-third of that export growth in the period 2000– 2005. Reduced policy uncertainty lowered US prices and increased its consumers' income by the equivalent of a 13-percentage-point permanent tariff decrease. These findings provide evidence of large effects of policy uncertainty on economic activity and the importance of agreements for reducing it. (JEL D72, F13, F14, O19, P33)


2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (5) ◽  
pp. 50-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen M. Reinhart ◽  
Kenneth S. Rogoff

We examine the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about 8 years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6.5 years. Five to six years after the onset of crisis, only Germany and the United States (out of 12 systemic cases) have reached their 2007-2008 peaks in real income. Forty-five percent of the episodes recorded double dips. Post-war business cycles are not the relevant comparator for the recent crises in advanced economies.


2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 187-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Amiti ◽  
Stephen J. Redding ◽  
David E. Weinstein

We examine conventional approaches to evaluating the economic impact of protectionist trade policies. We illustrate these conventional approaches by applying them to the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration during 2018. In the wake of this increase in trade protection, the United States experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and the complete pass-through of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods. Therefore, the full incidence of the tariffs has fallen on domestic consumers and importers so far, and our estimates imply a reduction in aggregate US real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018. We see similar patterns for foreign countries that have retaliated with their own tariffs against the United States, which suggests that the trade war has also reduced the real income of these other countries.


2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 280-300
Author(s):  
Rafael Bakhtavoryan ◽  
Vardges Hovhannisyan ◽  
Stephen Devadoss ◽  
Jose Lopez

AbstractWe adopt an EASI model to estimate demand for omega-3, organic, cage-free, and conventional eggs in the United States. Our empirical framework accounts for demand inter-dependencies among these egg types, while allowing for unrestricted Engel curves, unobserved consumer heterogeneity, and a broader product and geographic coverage. We further address endogeneity of prices and expenditures and left-censoring induced by disaggregate data. Our results indicate that the demand for organic and cage-free eggs is price-elastic, while the demand for omega-3 and conventional eggs is price-inelastic. Additionally, we establish strong substitutability relationships between the eggs. Finally, we measure consumer welfare consequences of rising domestic egg prices brought by Japan’s egg import tariff reductions.


1941 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-478
Author(s):  
John U. Nef

The last four or five decades have been a period of increasing tension and insecurity throughout the world, especially among the Western peoples. Pessimism, cynicism, and despair have gained the ascendancy over most of Europe; uncertainty and lack of confidence over much of the United States. It would be natural for businessmen and for social scientists, who measure civilization mainly in terms of real income or the volume of industrial production, to attribute this tension and discouragement to the slowing down in the rate of industrial progress, to the material crisis of the twentieth century.


2019 ◽  
Vol 135 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo D Fajgelbaum ◽  
Pinelopi K Goldberg ◽  
Patrick J Kennedy ◽  
Amit K Khandelwal

Abstract After decades of supporting free trade, in 2018 the United States raised import tariffs and major trade partners retaliated. We analyze the short-run impact of this return to protectionism on the U.S. economy. Import and retaliatory tariffs caused large declines in imports and exports. Prices of imports targeted by tariffs did not fall, implying complete pass-through of tariffs to duty-inclusive prices. The resulting losses to U.S. consumers and firms that buy imports was $51 billion, or 0.27% of GDP. We embed the estimated trade elasticities in a general-equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. After accounting for tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers, the aggregate real income loss was $7.2 billion, or 0.04% of GDP. Import tariffs favored sectors concentrated in politically competitive counties, and the model implies that tradeable-sector workers in heavily Republican counties were the most negatively affected due to the retaliatory tariffs. JEL Code: F1.


1989 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
R L Morrill

In response to problems of jurisdictional fragmentation in American metropolitan areas, many efforts at regional governance have been undertaken. Few are successful. In most areas, area-wide problems are dealt with by specialized functional entities. The universal avoidance of regional general-purpose governance is analyzed through consideration of the motivations and attitudes of the actors (businesses, governments, citizens) in particular American cities, including Seattle. It is argued that the strongest force against regionalization is the fear of redistribution of real income.


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