scholarly journals Bayesian on-line anticipation of critical transitions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Heßler ◽  
Oliver Kamps
Keyword(s):  
Regime Shift ◽  
Linear Segment ◽  
World Systems ◽  
Noise Levels ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Current State ◽  
Time Dependencies ◽  
On Line ◽  
Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equation ◽  
Line Analysis

Abstract The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an important task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We present a data-driven method based on the estimation of a parameterized nonlinear stochastic differential equation that allows for a robust anticipation of critical transitions even in the presence of strong noise levels like they are present in many real world systems. Since the parameter estimation is done by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach we have access to credibility bands allowing for a better interpretation of the reliability of the results. By introducing a Bayesian linear segment fit it is possible to give an estimate for the time horizon in which the transition will probably occur based on the current state of information. This approach is also able to handle nonlinear time dependencies of the parameter controlling the transition. In general the method could be used as a tool for on-line analysis to detect changes in the resilience of the system and to provide information on the probability of the occurrence of a critical transition in future.

French and Spanish Queer Film

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Perriam ◽  
Darren Waldron
Keyword(s):  
Focus Groups ◽  
Sense Of Community ◽  
National Identities ◽  
Audience Research ◽  
Large Sample ◽  
Current State ◽  
Trans People ◽  
Screening Questionnaires ◽  
On Line ◽  
The Uk

This book advances the current state of film audience research and of our knowledge of sexuality in transnational contexts, by analysing how French LGBTQ films are seen in Spain and Spanish ones in France, as well as how these films are seen in the UK. It studies films from various genres and examines their reception across four languages (Spanish, French, Catalan, English) and engages with participants across a range of digital and physical audience locations. A focus on LGBTQ festivals and on issues relating to LGBTQ experience in both countries allows for the consideration of issues such as ageing, sense of community and isolation, affiliation and investment, and the representation of issues affecting trans people. The book examines films that chronicle the local, national and sub-national identities while also addressing foreign audiences. It draws on a large sample of individual responses through post-screening questionnaires and focus groups as well as on the work of professional film critics and on-line commentators.

scholarly journals Quantifying the parameter dependent basin of the unsafe regime of asymmetric Lévy-noise-induced critical transitions

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-84
Author(s):  
Jinzhong Ma ◽  
Yong Xu ◽  
Yongge Li ◽  
Ruilan Tian ◽  
Shaojuan Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lévy Noise ◽  
Stable Model ◽  
Efficient Tool ◽  
Escape Probability ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Current State ◽  
Undesirable State ◽  
Parameter Dependent ◽  
Levy Noise ◽  
The Given

AbstractIn real systems, the unpredictable jump changes of the random environment can induce the critical transitions (CTs) between two non-adjacent states, which are more catastrophic. Taking an asymmetric Lévy-noise-induced tri-stable model with desirable, sub-desirable, and undesirable states as a prototype class of real systems, a prediction of the noise-induced CTs from the desirable state directly to the undesirable one is carried out. We first calculate the region that the current state of the given model is absorbed into the undesirable state based on the escape probability, which is named as the absorbed region. Then, a new concept of the parameter dependent basin of the unsafe regime (PDBUR) under the asymmetric Lévy noise is introduced. It is an efficient tool for approximately quantifying the ranges of the parameters, where the noise-induced CTs from the desirable state directly to the undesirable one may occur. More importantly, it may provide theoretical guidance for us to adopt some measures to avert a noise-induced catastrophic CT.

First on-line analysis of petroleum from single inclusion using ultrafast laser ablation

2010 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 74-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herbert Volk ◽  
David Fuentes ◽  
Alexander Fuerbach ◽  
Christopher Miese ◽  
Wolfgang Koehler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Laser Ablation ◽  
Ultrafast Laser ◽  
Single Inclusion ◽  
On Line ◽  
Line Analysis ◽  
Ultrafast Laser Ablation

On-line Flow Cytometry for Real-time Surgical Guidance

Neurosurgery ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 551-561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali H. Mesiwala ◽  
Louis D. Scampavia ◽  
Peter S. Rabinovitch ◽  
Jaromir Ruzicka ◽  
Robert C. Rostomily
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Dna Content ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Tissue Samples ◽  
Surgical Decision ◽  
Surgical Guidance ◽  
On Line ◽  
Surgical Decision Making ◽  
Line Analysis

Abstract OBJECTIVE: This study tests the feasibility of using on-line analysis of tissue during surgical resection of brain tumors to provide biologically relevant information in a clinically relevant time frame to augment surgical decision making. For the purposes of establishing feasibility, we used measurement of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) content as the end point for analysis. METHODS: We investigated the feasibility of interfacing an ultrasonic aspiration (USA) system with a flow cytometer (FC) capable of analyzing DNA content (DNA-FC). The sampling system design, tissue preparation requirements, and time requirements for each step of the on-line analysis system were determined using fresh beef brain tissue samples. We also compared DNA-FC measurements in 28 nonneoplastic human brain samples with DNA-FC measurements in specimens of 11 glioma patients obtained from central tumor regions and surgical margins after macroscopically gross total tumor removal to estimate the potential for analysis of a biological marker to influence surgical decision making. RESULTS: With minimal modification, modern FC systems are fully capable of real-time, intraoperative analysis of USA specimens. The total time required for on-line analysis of USA specimens varies between 36 and 63 seconds; this time includes delivery from the tip of the USA to complete analysis of the specimen. Approximately 60% of this time is required for equilibration of the DNA stain. When compared with values for nonneoplastic human brain samples, 50% of samples (10 of 20) from macroscopically normal glioma surgical margins contained DNA-FC abnormalities potentially indicating residual tumor. CONCLUSION: With an interface of existing technologies, DNA content of brain tissue samples can be analyzed in a meaningful time frame that has the potential to provide real-time information for surgical guidance. The identification of DNA content abnormalities in macroscopically normal tumor resection margins by DNA-FC supports the practical potential for on-line analysis of a tumor marker to guide surgical resections. The development of such a device would provide neurosurgeons with an objective method for intraoperative analysis of a clinically relevant biological parameter that can be measured in real time.

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