scholarly journals Reducing climate risks with fast and complete energy transitions: applying the precautionary principle to the Paris agreement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Desing ◽  
Rolf Widmer
Keyword(s):  
Precautionary Principle ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
The Precautionary Principle ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
System A ◽  
Prior Consent ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Transition Pathways ◽  
Climate Action

Abstract Averting the climate catastrophe requires the transformation of the energy system. A wide range of energy transition pathways are being explored in literature, which limit peak heating during this century as likely as not to 2°C or 1.5°C. Growing understanding of the Earth system suggests that peak heating beyond 1.5°C may be an existential threat to the biosphere and therefore also humanity. Transitions that exceed this vital threshold with a high probability expose future generations to substantial risks without their prior consent. Here we advocate the precautionary principle and explore with a minimal energy transition model the energy requirements to minimize climate risks. Fast and complete transitions are energetically possible when temporarily increasing fossil emissions above current levels for the sole purpose of accelerating the growth of renewable energy capacity. This reduces the probability to exceed 1.5°C peak heating at best to 20%, highlighting the urgency for climate action.

scholarly journals Reducing climate risks with fast and complete energy transitions: applying the precautionary principle to the Paris agreement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Desing ◽  
Rolf Widmer
Keyword(s):  
Precautionary Principle ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
The Precautionary Principle ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
System A ◽  
Prior Consent ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Transition Pathways ◽  
Climate Action

Averting the climate catastrophe requires the transformation of the energy system. A wide range of energy transition pathways are being explored in literature, which limit peak heating during this century as likely as not to 2°C or 1.5°C. Growing understanding of the Earth system suggests that peak heating beyond 1.5°C may be an existential threat to the biosphere and therefore also humanity. Transitions that exceed this vital threshold with a high probability expose future generations to substantial risks without their prior consent. Here we advocate the precautionary principle and explore with a minimal energy transition model the energy requirements to minimize climate risks. Fast and complete transitions are energetically possible when temporarily increasing fossil emissions above current levels for the sole purpose of accelerating the growth of renewable energy capacity. This reduces the probability to exceed 1.5°C peak heating at best to 20%, highlighting the urgency for climate action.

scholarly journals How much energy storage can we afford? On the need for a sunflower society, aligning demand with renewable supply

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Desing ◽  
Rolf Widmer
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Synthetic Fuels ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Available Energy ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Storage Demand ◽  
Storage Technologies

Our society has become accustomed to demanding energy whenever we want it. When decarbonising the energy system, this becomes a fundamental challenge due to the extent of energy storage required for matching the intermittent renewable supply to society's current demand. Available energy storage technologies are energetically expensive either to build - like batteries - or to operate - like synthetic fuels. Due to these energetic costs, requiring more storage leads to a slower energy transition and consequently higher climate risks. This paper explores the energy implications of adding energy storage to fast and complete energy transition pathways. Technological innovation can mitigate the problem to some extent by focusing on reduced energy intensity of storage alongside with improved turnaround efficiency. Most influential is, however, the extent of storage that we want: reducing storage demand greatly accelerates the transition and therefore reduces the induced probability of violating 1.5°C peak heating. In addition, it can immediately be implemented with readily available and scalable technologies. However, it requires a fundamental rethinking of the way we use energy in society: aligning energy demand with renewable supply as best as we can. Following the course of the sun, just like sunflowers do, we need to schedule our most energy-intensive activities around midday and summer, while reducing demand during night and winter. The sunflower society has the potential to accelerate climate action and therewith reduce climate risks.

scholarly journals Is Green Recovery Enough? Analysing the Impacts of Post-COVID-19 Economic Packages

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 5567
Author(s):  
Pedro R. R. Rochedo ◽  
Panagiotis Fragkos ◽  
Rafael Garaffa ◽  
Lilia Caiado Couto ◽  
Luiz Bernardo Baptista ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Use ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Support Employment ◽  
Societal Changes

Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societal responses to climate urgency and that it should be significantly upscaled and prolonged to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals.

scholarly journals Latecomers to the Fossil Energy Transition, Frontrunners for Change? The Relevance of the Energy ‘Underdogs’ for Sustainability Transformations

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anke Schaffartzik ◽  
Marina Fischer-Kowalski
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Fossil Energy ◽  
System A ◽  
Traditional Patterns ◽  
Big Push ◽  
Global Population

The global energy system subsumes both extreme wealth (and waste) and extreme poverty. A minority of the global population is consuming the majority of the fossil fuel-based energy and causing global warming. While the mature industrialized economies maintain their high levels of energy consumption, the emerging economies are rapidly expanding their fossil energy systems, emulating traditional patterns of industrialization. We take a global, socio-metabolic perspective on the energy transition phases—take-off, maturation, and completion—of 142 countries between 1971 and 2015. Even within our global fossil energy system, the transition to fossil energy is still ongoing; many countries are in the process of replacing renewable energy with fossil energy. However, due to globally limited supplies and sinks, continuing the fossil energy transition is not an indefinite option. Rather than a “Big Push” for renewable energy within pockets of the fossil energy system, a sustainability transformation is required that would change far more than patterns of energy supply and use. Where this far-reaching change requires pushing back against the fossil energy system, the energy underdogs—the latecomers to the fossil energy transition—just might come out on top.

Transition pathways towards a deep decarbonization energy system—A case study in Sichuan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 302 ◽  
pp. 117507
Author(s):  
Shihua Luo ◽  
Weihao Hu ◽  
Wen Liu ◽  
Xiao Xu ◽  
Qi Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy System ◽  
System A ◽  
Transition Pathways

scholarly journals Diagnosing Barriers and Enablers for the Flemish Energy Transition

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5558
Author(s):  
Erik Laes ◽  
Pieter Valkering ◽  
Yves De Weerdt
Keyword(s):  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
System Innovation ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
System Transformation ◽  
Multiple Perspectives ◽  
Incremental Change ◽  
Barriers And Enablers ◽  
Transition Pathways ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

Industrialised economies are currently confronted with the challenge of transitioning to a low-carbon energy system. Starting from the insight that ‘system innovation’ rather than incremental change is needed, we diagnose barriers and enablers for energy system transformation for the case of Flanders (Belgium). We thereby combine multiple perspectives: a techno-economic perspective to derive a technology-based vision on the energy transition, a technology innovation perspective to assess barriers and enablers regarding the upscaling of technological niche-innovations, and a system innovation perspective to address fundamental barriers and enablers associated with transformative system change. We highlight the complementary features of the three perspectives and describe how insights can feed into the development of energy transition pathways.

scholarly journals Perspectives on Justice in the Future Energy System: A Dutch Treat

2021 ◽  
pp. 55-72
Author(s):  
Aad Correljé
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Value Conflicts ◽  
Social Actors ◽  
System A ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Energy Justice

AbstractThe (un)affordability, the (un)reliability and the (un)sustainability of our energy supply are increasingly associated with the phenomenon of energy justice. This concerns the way in which different groups of citizens and businesses experience the benefits and burdens of the energy transition. We explore how the concept of energy justice may support a just transition. Firstly, we address the socio-political embedding of the energy sector and policy-making. Then we explain how the concept of energy justice is defined and operationalized, in respect of policy making and implementation. Thereupon we apply the concept of energy justice to the current Dutch energy debate, addressing the reduction of natural gas production to diminish the number and strength of earthquakes in Groningen, and the longer-term policy objectives of the energy transition. It addresses the radical changes in energy use and supply and the consequent wide variety in direct and indirect consequences for citizens and businesses, depending on their specific circumstances. The notion of energy justice is discussed as a feature in local, national and EU policy making and implementation, and as a claim of social actors, communities and individuals. The suggestion that justice issues can be identified and solved at these levels, is too simple. It is important to consider the layout and nature of the socio-technical energy system and its functioning. It is concluded that the concept of justice may help researchers to identify the relevant values and value conflicts in the energy transition. This can help policymakers to make informed choices.

scholarly journals Spatial high-resolution socio-energetic data for municipal energy system analyses

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jann M. Weinand ◽  
Russell McKenna ◽  
Kai Mainzer
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Related Research ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Research Challenges ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract In the context of the energy transition, municipalities are increasingly attempting to exploit renewable energies. Socio-energetic data are required as input for municipal energy system analyses. This Data Descriptor provides a compilation of 40 indicators for all 11,131 German municipalities. In addition to census data such as population density, mobility data such as the number of vehicles and data on the potential of renewables such as wind energy are included. Most of the data set also contains public data, the allocation of which to municipalities was an extensive task. The data set can support in addressing a wide range of energy-related research challenges. A municipality typology has already been developed with the data, and the resulting municipality grouping is also included in the data set.

Decision support for renewables deployment through spatially explicit energy system alternatives

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryn Pickering ◽  
Francesco Lombardi ◽  
Stefan Pfenninger
Keyword(s):  
Energy Systems ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Energy System Model ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Generation Capacity

<p>A decarbonised European energy system will require a number of potentially contested decisions on where best to locate renewable generation capacity. Typically, modellers determine the “best” system based on the least cost to society, focussing on a cost-minimising energy system model result to inform planning and policy. This approach neglects potentially more desirable alternative results which might, for example, avoid problematic concentrations of onshore wind power deployment, increase national supply security, or lower the risk of system failure in adverse weather conditions.</p><p>In response, we have developed a method to generate spatially explicit, practically optimal results (SPORES) in the context of energy system optimisation. SPORES can be used to explore energy systems which may offer more socially, politically, or environmentally acceptable alternatives. Furthermore, we have developed metrics to aid identification of interesting alternatives, like those which maximise the spatial distribution of wind generation capacity or minimise exposure to multi-year demand and weather uncertainty.</p><p>In this presentation, we will detail the application of the SPORES method in two cases of energy system decarbonisation:  the Italian power system and the European energy system. We will present technology deployment strategies which are prevalent across SPORES, such as solar photovoltaics coupled with battery storage, as well as those which offer flexibility of choice in location and extent of deployment. To help with the urgent task of planning socially and politically acceptable energy system decarbonisation strategies, our implementation of SPORES in the open-source energy systems modelling framework Calliope makes it accessible to a wide range of potential users; we will also discuss how other research groups can further build on this to accelerate the energy transition.</p>

scholarly journals Robust Enough? Exploring Temperature-Constrained Energy Transition Pathways under Climate Uncertainty

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (24) ◽  
pp. 8595
Author(s):  
Claire Nicolas ◽  
Stéphane Tchung-Ming ◽  
Olivier Bahn ◽  
Erick Delage
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Transition Pathways ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, we study how uncertainties weighing on the climate system impact the optimal technological pathways the world energy system should take to comply with stringent mitigation objectives. We use the TIAM-World model that relies on the TIMES modelling approach. Its climate module is inspired by the DICE model. Using robust optimization techniques, we assess the impact of the climate system parameter uncertainty on energy transition pathways under various climate constraints. Unlike other studies we consider all the climate system parameters which is of primary importance since: (i) parameters and outcomes of climate models are all inherently uncertain (parametric uncertainty); and (ii) the simplified models at stake summarize phenomena that are by nature complex and non-linear in a few, sometimes linear, equations so that structural uncertainty is also a major issue. The use of robust optimization allows us to identify economic energy transition pathways under climate constraints for which the outcome scenarios remain relevant for any realization of the climate parameters. In this sense, transition pathways are made robust. We find that the abatement strategies are quite different between the two temperature targets. The most stringent one is reached by investing massively in carbon removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) which have yields much lower than traditional fossil fuelled technologies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document