El Niño and land-use change – an attempt to simulate farmers' reactions on climate variability and climate change in Indonesia

La variabilidad climática es la norma que ha modulado la vida en el planeta. Este trabajo demuestra que las pesquerías y acuicultura costera ecuatorianas no son la excepción, puesto que tales actividades están fuertemente influenciadas por la variabilidad ENSO (El Niño-Oscilación del Sur) y PDO (Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico), planteándose que la señal del cambio climático debe contribuir a esta influencia. Se destaca también que, en el análisis de los efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre los recursos pesqueros, el esfuerzo extractivo también debe ser considerado. Por su parte, la acción actual de la PDO está afectando la señal del cambio climático, encontrándose actualmente en fases opuestas. Se espera que estas señales entren en fase a finales de esta década, y principalmente durante la década de los 20 y consecuentemente se evidencien con mayor fuerza los efectos del Cambio Climático. Palabras Clave: Variabilidad Climática, Cambio Climático, ENSO, PDO, Pesquerías, Ecuador. ABSTRACT Climate variability is the standard that has modulated life in the planet. This work shows that the Ecuadorian fisheries and aquaculture are not the exception, since such activities are strongly influenced by ENSO variability (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), considering that the signal of climate change should contribute to this influence. It also emphasizes that in the analysis of the effects of climate variability on the fishing resources, the extractive effort must also be considered. For its part, the current action of the PDO is affecting the signal of climate change, now found on opposite phases. It is hoped that these signals come into phase at the end of this decade, and especially during the decade of the 20’s and more strongly evidencing the effects of climate change. Keywords: Climate variability, climate change, ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); fisheries, Ecuador. Recibido: mayo, 2012Aprobado: agosto, 2012

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Impacts of climate and land use changes on water variability, using a Budyko framework: case study in Gansu, China

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10613 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Qing He ◽

Kwok Pan Chun ◽

Omer Yetemen ◽

Bastien Dieppois ◽

Liang Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Food Security ◽

Climate Variability ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Runoff Generation ◽

Local Water ◽

Climate Transition ◽

Water And Food Security

<p>Disentangling the effects of climate and land use changes on regional hydrological conditions is critical for local water and food security. The water variability over climate transition regions at the midlatitudes is sensitive to changes in regional climate and land use. Gansu, located in northwest China, is a midlatitude climate transition region with sharp climate and vegetation gradients. In this study, the effects of climate and land&#8209;use changes on water balances are investigated over Gansu between 1981 and 2015 using a Budyko framework. Results show that there is reduced runoff generation potential over Gansu during 1981 and 2015, especially in the southern part of the region. Based on statistical scaling relationships, local runoff generation potential over Gansu are related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intensified El Nino conditions weaken the Asian monsoons, leading to precipitation deficits over Gansu. Moreover, the regional evapotranspiration (ET) is increasing due to the warming temperature. The decreasing precipitation and increasing ET cause the decline of runoff generation potential over Gansu. Using the dynamical downscaling model outputs, the Budyko analysis indicates that increasing coverage of forests and croplands may lead to higher ET and may reduce runoff generation potential over Gansu. Moreover, the contributions of climate variability and land&#8209;use changes vary spatially. In the southwest part of Gansu, the impacts of climate variability on water variations are larger (around 80%) than that of land&#8209;use changes (around 20%), while land use changes are the dominant drivers of water variability in the southeast part of the region. The decline of runoff generation potential reveals a potential risk for local water and food security over Gansu. The water&#8209;resource assessment approach developed in this study is applicable for collaborative planning at other climate transition regions at the midlatitudes with complex climate and land types for the Belt and Road Initiative.</p>

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Climate Variability in the Context of Climate Change: El Niño and Other Oscillations

Climate Variability and the Global Harvest ◽

10.1093/oso/9780195137637.003.0006 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Cynthia Rosenzweig ◽

Daniel Hillel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

North Atlantic ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate System ◽

The Arctic ◽

The Pacific ◽

Earth’S Climate

The climate system envelops our planet, with swirling fluxes of mass, momentum, and energy through air, water, and land. Its processes are partly regular and partly chaotic. The regularity of diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in these processes is well understood. Recently, there has been significant progress in understanding some of the mechanisms that induce deviations from that regularity in many parts of the globe. These mechanisms include a set of combined oceanic–atmospheric phenomena with quasi-regular manifestations. The largest of these is centered in the Pacific Ocean and is known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The term “oscillation” refers to a shifting pattern of atmospheric pressure gradients that has distinct manifestations in its alternating phases. In the Arctic and North Atlantic regions, the occurrence of somewhat analogous but less regular interactions known as the Arctic Oscillation and its offshoot, the North Atlantic Oscillation, are also being studied. These and other major oscillations influence climate patterns in many parts of the globe. Examples of other large-scale interactive ocean–atmosphere– land processes are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific/North American pattern, the Tropical Atlantic Variability, the West Pacific pattern, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole. In this chapter we review the earth’s climate system in general, define climate variability, and describe the processes related to ENSO and the other major systems and their interactions. We then consider the possible connections of the major climate variability systems to anthropogenic global climate change. The climate system consists of a series of fluxes and transformations of energy (radiation, sensible and latent heat, and momentum), as well as transports and changes in the state of matter (air, water, solid matter, and biota) as conveyed and influenced by the atmosphere, the ocean, and the land masses. Acting like a giant engine, this dynamic system is driven by the infusion, transformation, and redistribution of energy.

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Global soil organic carbon removal by water erosion under climate change and land use change during 1850–2005 AD

10.5194/bg-2017-527 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Victoria Naipal ◽

Philippe Ciais ◽

Yilong Wang ◽

Ronny Lauerwald ◽

Bertrand Guenet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Organic Carbon ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Soil Organic Carbon ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

Atmospheric Co2 ◽

Terrestrial Carbon

Abstract. The onset and expansion of agriculture has accelerated soil erosion by rainfall and runoff substantially, mobilizing vast quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) globally. Studies show that at timescales of decennia to millennia this mobilized SOC can significantly alter previously estimated carbon emissions from land use change (LUC). However, a full understanding of the impact of erosion on land-atmosphere carbon exchange is still missing. The aim of our study is to better constrain the terrestrial carbon fluxes by developing methods compatible with Earth System Models (ESMs) in order to explicitly represent the links between soil erosion by rainfall and runoff and carbon dynamics. For this we use an emulator that represents the carbon cycle of a land surface model, in combination with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model. We applied this modeling framework at the global scale to evaluate the effects of potential soil erosion (soil removal only) in the presence of other perturbations of the carbon cycle: elevated atmospheric CO2, climate variability, and LUC. We found that over the period 1850–2005 AD acceleration of soil erosion leads to a total potential SOC removal flux of 100 Pg C of which 80 % occurs on agricultural, pasture and natural grass lands. Including soil erosion in the SOC-dynamics scheme results in a doubling of the cumulative loss of SOC over 1850–2005 due to the combined effects of climate variability, increasing atmospheric CO2 and LUC. This additional erosional loss decreases the cumulative global carbon sink on land by 5 Pg for this specific period, with the largest effects found for the tropics, where deforestation and agricultural expansion increased soil erosion rates significantly. We also show that the potential effects of soil erosion on the global SOC stocks cannot be ignored when compared to the effects of climate change or land use change on the carbon cycle. We conclude that it is necessary to include soil erosion in assessments of LUC and evaluations of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

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Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-018-03374-x ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Masayuki Kondo ◽

Kazuhito Ichii ◽

Prabir K. Patra ◽

Joseph G. Canadell ◽

Benjamin Poulter ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

El Niño ◽

Carbon Balance ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽

El Nino Southern Oscillation

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Learning from Climate Variability: Adaptive Governance and the Pacific ENSO Applications Center

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/2010wcas1049.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 2 (4) ◽

pp. 311-319 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Amanda H. Lynch ◽

Ronald D. Brunner

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Effective Control ◽

Scientific Management ◽

Adaptive Governance ◽

Policy Problem ◽

The Pacific ◽

The Face

Abstract Adaptive governance is a pattern that began to emerge from conflicts over natural resources in the American West a few decades ago. This was a pragmatic response to the emerging evidence that effective control was dispersed among multiple authorities and interest groups, that efficiency was only one of the many goals to be reconciled in policy decision processes, and that science itself was politically contested. Climate change as a policy problem exhibits many of these same features and has similarly led to gridlock in international and national forums. But humankind is not without guidance in securing the protection of life, limb, and livelihood in the face of environmental distress, particularly with regard to the challenge of adaptation. One effective analogy can be drawn to adaptations in the face of large climate variability such as El Niño. This paper compares adaptive governance with the tradition of scientific management in the international climate change regime, and it explores an example of adaptive governance in responding to the effects of a severe El Niño event in the Pacific islands. This event illustrates some of the specific kinds of human choices that will be made by those who are concerned about climate change as a policy problem. The basic choice is not scientific management or adaptive governance but continuing with business as usual or opening the frame to a wider range of possibilities.

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South American Climatology and Impacts of El Niño in NCEP’s CFSR Data

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2013/492630 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2013 ◽

pp. 1-15 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Timothy Paul Eichler ◽

Ana C. Londoño

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South America ◽

Climate Variability ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Reanalysis Dataset ◽

The Andes ◽

The University

Understanding regional climate variability is necessary in order to assess the impacts of climate change. Until recently, the best methods for evaluating regional climate variability were via observation networks and coarse-gridded reanalysis datasets. However, the recent development of high-resolution reanalysis datasets offers an opportunity to better evaluate the climatologically diverse continent of South America. This study compares NCEP’s CFS reanalysis dataset with NCEP’s coarser-resolution reanalysis II dataset to determine if CFS reanalysis improves our ability to represent the regional climate of South America. Our results show several regional differences between the CFSR and Re2 data, especially in areas of large topographical gradients. A comparison with the University of Delaware and TRMM precipitation datasets lends credence to some of these differences, such as heavier precipitation associated with anomalous 925 hPa westerlies over northwestern Peru and Ecuador during El Niño. However, our results also stress that caution is advised when using reanalysis data to assess regional climate variability, especially in areas of large topographical gradient such as the Andes. Our results establish a baseline to better study climate change, especially given the release of IPCC AR5 model simulations.

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