El Niño: Dynamics, its role in climate change, and its effects on climate variability

Complexity ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 16-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allen G. Hunt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino

VARIABILIDAD CLIMÁTICA, CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y PESQUERÍAS EN EL ECUADOR.

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Chavarría Viteri ◽  
Dennis Tomalá Solano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Current Action ◽  
Palabras Clave

La variabilidad climática es la norma que ha modulado la vida en el planeta. Este trabajo demuestra que las pesquerías y acuicultura costera ecuatorianas no son la excepción, puesto que tales actividades están fuertemente influenciadas por la variabilidad ENSO (El Niño-Oscilación del Sur) y PDO (Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico), planteándose que la señal del cambio climático debe contribuir a esta influencia. Se destaca también que, en el análisis de los efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre los recursos pesqueros, el esfuerzo extractivo también debe ser considerado. Por su parte, la acción actual de la PDO está afectando la señal del cambio climático, encontrándose actualmente en fases opuestas. Se espera que estas señales entren en fase a finales de esta década, y principalmente durante la década de los 20 y consecuentemente se evidencien con mayor fuerza los efectos del Cambio Climático. Palabras Clave: Variabilidad Climática, Cambio Climático, ENSO, PDO, Pesquerías, Ecuador. ABSTRACT Climate variability is the standard that has modulated life in the planet. This work shows that the Ecuadorian  fisheries and aquaculture are not the exception, since such activities are strongly influenced by ENSO variability (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), considering that the signal of climate change should contribute to this influence. It also emphasizes that in the analysis of the effects of climate variability on the fishing resources, the extractive effort must also be considered. For its part, the current action of the PDO is affecting the signal of climate change, now found on opposite phases. It is hoped that these signals come into phase at the end of this decade, and especially during the decade of the 20’s and more strongly evidencing the effects of climate change. Keywords: Climate variability, climate change, ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO  (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); fisheries, Ecuador. Recibido: mayo, 2012Aprobado: agosto, 2012

Climate Variability in the Context of Climate Change: El Niño and Other Oscillations

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia Rosenzweig ◽  
Daniel Hillel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Earth’S Climate

The climate system envelops our planet, with swirling fluxes of mass, momentum, and energy through air, water, and land. Its processes are partly regular and partly chaotic. The regularity of diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in these processes is well understood. Recently, there has been significant progress in understanding some of the mechanisms that induce deviations from that regularity in many parts of the globe. These mechanisms include a set of combined oceanic–atmospheric phenomena with quasi-regular manifestations. The largest of these is centered in the Pacific Ocean and is known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The term “oscillation” refers to a shifting pattern of atmospheric pressure gradients that has distinct manifestations in its alternating phases. In the Arctic and North Atlantic regions, the occurrence of somewhat analogous but less regular interactions known as the Arctic Oscillation and its offshoot, the North Atlantic Oscillation, are also being studied. These and other major oscillations influence climate patterns in many parts of the globe. Examples of other large-scale interactive ocean–atmosphere– land processes are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific/North American pattern, the Tropical Atlantic Variability, the West Pacific pattern, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole. In this chapter we review the earth’s climate system in general, define climate variability, and describe the processes related to ENSO and the other major systems and their interactions. We then consider the possible connections of the major climate variability systems to anthropogenic global climate change. The climate system consists of a series of fluxes and transformations of energy (radiation, sensible and latent heat, and momentum), as well as transports and changes in the state of matter (air, water, solid matter, and biota) as conveyed and influenced by the atmosphere, the ocean, and the land masses. Acting like a giant engine, this dynamic system is driven by the infusion, transformation, and redistribution of energy.

scholarly journals Learning from Climate Variability: Adaptive Governance and the Pacific ENSO Applications Center

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 311-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda H. Lynch ◽  
Ronald D. Brunner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
Adaptive Governance ◽  
Policy Problem ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Face

Abstract Adaptive governance is a pattern that began to emerge from conflicts over natural resources in the American West a few decades ago. This was a pragmatic response to the emerging evidence that effective control was dispersed among multiple authorities and interest groups, that efficiency was only one of the many goals to be reconciled in policy decision processes, and that science itself was politically contested. Climate change as a policy problem exhibits many of these same features and has similarly led to gridlock in international and national forums. But humankind is not without guidance in securing the protection of life, limb, and livelihood in the face of environmental distress, particularly with regard to the challenge of adaptation. One effective analogy can be drawn to adaptations in the face of large climate variability such as El Niño. This paper compares adaptive governance with the tradition of scientific management in the international climate change regime, and it explores an example of adaptive governance in responding to the effects of a severe El Niño event in the Pacific islands. This event illustrates some of the specific kinds of human choices that will be made by those who are concerned about climate change as a policy problem. The basic choice is not scientific management or adaptive governance but continuing with business as usual or opening the frame to a wider range of possibilities.

scholarly journals South American Climatology and Impacts of El Niño in NCEP’s CFSR Data

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Paul Eichler ◽  
Ana C. Londoño
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
The Andes ◽  
The University

Understanding regional climate variability is necessary in order to assess the impacts of climate change. Until recently, the best methods for evaluating regional climate variability were via observation networks and coarse-gridded reanalysis datasets. However, the recent development of high-resolution reanalysis datasets offers an opportunity to better evaluate the climatologically diverse continent of South America. This study compares NCEP’s CFS reanalysis dataset with NCEP’s coarser-resolution reanalysis II dataset to determine if CFS reanalysis improves our ability to represent the regional climate of South America. Our results show several regional differences between the CFSR and Re2 data, especially in areas of large topographical gradients. A comparison with the University of Delaware and TRMM precipitation datasets lends credence to some of these differences, such as heavier precipitation associated with anomalous 925 hPa westerlies over northwestern Peru and Ecuador during El Niño. However, our results also stress that caution is advised when using reanalysis data to assess regional climate variability, especially in areas of large topographical gradient such as the Andes. Our results establish a baseline to better study climate change, especially given the release of IPCC AR5 model simulations.

scholarly journals Climate Change Implications Found in Winter Extreme Sea Level Height Records around Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 377
Author(s):  
Dong Eun Lee ◽  
Jaehee Kim ◽  
Yujin Heo ◽  
Hyunjin Kang ◽  
Eun Young Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Expansion ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level Height

The impact of climatic variability in atmospheric conditions on coastal environments accompanies adjustments in both the frequency and intensity of coastal storm surge events. The top winter season daily maximum sea level height events at 20 tidal stations around South Korea were examined to assess such impact of winter extratropical cyclone variability. As the investigation focusses on the most extreme sea level events, the impact of climate change is found to be invisible. It is revealed that the measures of extreme sea level events—frequency and intensity—do not correlate with the local sea surface temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, the frequency of winter extreme events exhibits a clear association with the concurrent climatic indices. It was determined that the annual frequency of the all-time top 5% winter daily maximum sea level events significantly and positively correlates with the NINO3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices at the majority of the 20 tidal stations. Hence, this indicates an increase in extreme event frequency and intensity, despite localized temperature cooling. This contradicts the expectation of increases in local extreme sea level events due to thermal expansion and global climate change. During El Nino, it is suggested that northward shifts of winter storm tracks associated with El Nino occur, disturbing the sea level around Korea more often. The current dominance of interannual storm track shifts, due to climate variability, over the impact of slow rise on the winter extreme sea level events, implies that coastal extreme sea level events will change through changes in the mechanical drivers rather than thermal expansion. The major storm tracks are predicted to continue shifting northward. The winter extreme sea level events in the midlatitude coastal region might not go through a monotonic change. They are expected to occur more often and more intensively in the near future, but might not continue doing so when northward shifting storm tracks move away from the marginal seas around Korea, as is predicted by the end of the century.

Impacts of climate and land use changes on water variability, using a Budyko framework: case study in Gansu, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing He ◽  
Kwok Pan Chun ◽  
Omer Yetemen ◽  
Bastien Dieppois ◽  
Liang Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Climate Transition ◽  
Water And Food Security

<p>Disentangling the effects of climate and land use changes on regional hydrological conditions is critical for local water and food security. The water variability over climate transition regions at the midlatitudes is sensitive to changes in regional climate and land use. Gansu, located in northwest China, is a midlatitude climate transition region with sharp climate and vegetation gradients. In this study, the effects of climate and land‑use changes on water balances are investigated over Gansu between 1981 and 2015 using a Budyko framework. Results show that there is reduced runoff generation potential over Gansu during 1981 and 2015, especially in the southern part of the region. Based on statistical scaling relationships, local runoff generation potential over Gansu are related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Intensified El Nino conditions weaken the Asian monsoons, leading to precipitation deficits over Gansu. Moreover, the regional evapotranspiration (ET) is increasing due to the warming temperature. The decreasing precipitation and increasing ET cause the decline of runoff generation potential over Gansu. Using the dynamical downscaling model outputs, the Budyko analysis indicates that increasing coverage of forests and croplands may lead to higher ET and may reduce runoff generation potential over Gansu. Moreover, the contributions of climate variability and land‑use changes vary spatially. In the southwest part of Gansu, the impacts of climate variability on water variations are larger (around 80%) than that of land‑use changes (around 20%), while land use changes are the dominant drivers of water variability in the southeast part of the region. The decline of runoff generation potential reveals a potential risk for local water and food security over Gansu. The water‑resource assessment approach developed in this study is applicable for collaborative planning at other climate transition regions at the midlatitudes with complex climate and land types for the Belt and Road Initiative.</p>

scholarly journals Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 1003-1011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Martin Fearnside
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Carbon Accounting ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Temperature Oscillations

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

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