Climate Variability in the Context of Climate Change: El Niño and Other Oscillations

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia Rosenzweig ◽  
Daniel Hillel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Earth’S Climate

The climate system envelops our planet, with swirling fluxes of mass, momentum, and energy through air, water, and land. Its processes are partly regular and partly chaotic. The regularity of diurnal and seasonal fluctuations in these processes is well understood. Recently, there has been significant progress in understanding some of the mechanisms that induce deviations from that regularity in many parts of the globe. These mechanisms include a set of combined oceanic–atmospheric phenomena with quasi-regular manifestations. The largest of these is centered in the Pacific Ocean and is known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The term “oscillation” refers to a shifting pattern of atmospheric pressure gradients that has distinct manifestations in its alternating phases. In the Arctic and North Atlantic regions, the occurrence of somewhat analogous but less regular interactions known as the Arctic Oscillation and its offshoot, the North Atlantic Oscillation, are also being studied. These and other major oscillations influence climate patterns in many parts of the globe. Examples of other large-scale interactive ocean–atmosphere– land processes are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the Pacific/North American pattern, the Tropical Atlantic Variability, the West Pacific pattern, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole. In this chapter we review the earth’s climate system in general, define climate variability, and describe the processes related to ENSO and the other major systems and their interactions. We then consider the possible connections of the major climate variability systems to anthropogenic global climate change. The climate system consists of a series of fluxes and transformations of energy (radiation, sensible and latent heat, and momentum), as well as transports and changes in the state of matter (air, water, solid matter, and biota) as conveyed and influenced by the atmosphere, the ocean, and the land masses. Acting like a giant engine, this dynamic system is driven by the infusion, transformation, and redistribution of energy.

scholarly journals Learning from Climate Variability: Adaptive Governance and the Pacific ENSO Applications Center

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 311-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda H. Lynch ◽  
Ronald D. Brunner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
Adaptive Governance ◽  
Policy Problem ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Face

Abstract Adaptive governance is a pattern that began to emerge from conflicts over natural resources in the American West a few decades ago. This was a pragmatic response to the emerging evidence that effective control was dispersed among multiple authorities and interest groups, that efficiency was only one of the many goals to be reconciled in policy decision processes, and that science itself was politically contested. Climate change as a policy problem exhibits many of these same features and has similarly led to gridlock in international and national forums. But humankind is not without guidance in securing the protection of life, limb, and livelihood in the face of environmental distress, particularly with regard to the challenge of adaptation. One effective analogy can be drawn to adaptations in the face of large climate variability such as El Niño. This paper compares adaptive governance with the tradition of scientific management in the international climate change regime, and it explores an example of adaptive governance in responding to the effects of a severe El Niño event in the Pacific islands. This event illustrates some of the specific kinds of human choices that will be made by those who are concerned about climate change as a policy problem. The basic choice is not scientific management or adaptive governance but continuing with business as usual or opening the frame to a wider range of possibilities.

VARIABILIDAD CLIMÁTICA, CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y PESQUERÍAS EN EL ECUADOR.

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Chavarría Viteri ◽  
Dennis Tomalá Solano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Current Action ◽  
Palabras Clave

La variabilidad climática es la norma que ha modulado la vida en el planeta. Este trabajo demuestra que las pesquerías y acuicultura costera ecuatorianas no son la excepción, puesto que tales actividades están fuertemente influenciadas por la variabilidad ENSO (El Niño-Oscilación del Sur) y PDO (Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico), planteándose que la señal del cambio climático debe contribuir a esta influencia. Se destaca también que, en el análisis de los efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre los recursos pesqueros, el esfuerzo extractivo también debe ser considerado. Por su parte, la acción actual de la PDO está afectando la señal del cambio climático, encontrándose actualmente en fases opuestas. Se espera que estas señales entren en fase a finales de esta década, y principalmente durante la década de los 20 y consecuentemente se evidencien con mayor fuerza los efectos del Cambio Climático. Palabras Clave: Variabilidad Climática, Cambio Climático, ENSO, PDO, Pesquerías, Ecuador. ABSTRACT Climate variability is the standard that has modulated life in the planet. This work shows that the Ecuadorian  fisheries and aquaculture are not the exception, since such activities are strongly influenced by ENSO variability (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), considering that the signal of climate change should contribute to this influence. It also emphasizes that in the analysis of the effects of climate variability on the fishing resources, the extractive effort must also be considered. For its part, the current action of the PDO is affecting the signal of climate change, now found on opposite phases. It is hoped that these signals come into phase at the end of this decade, and especially during the decade of the 20’s and more strongly evidencing the effects of climate change. Keywords: Climate variability, climate change, ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO  (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); fisheries, Ecuador. Recibido: mayo, 2012Aprobado: agosto, 2012

From “Inconvenient Truth” to Effective Governance

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Passarelli ◽  
David Michel ◽  
William Durch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Global Public Good ◽  
Environmental Groups ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Effective Governance ◽  
Political Response ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
National Governments

The Earth’s climate system is a global public good. Maintaining it is a collective action problem. This chapter looks at a quarter-century of efforts to understand and respond to the challenges posed by global climate change and why the collective political response, until very recently, has seemed to lag so far behind our scientific knowledge of the problem. The chapter tracks the efforts of the main global, intergovernmental process for negotiating both useful and politically acceptable responses to climate change, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also highlights efforts by scientific and environmental groups and, more recently, networks of sub-national governments—especially cities—and of businesses to redefine interests so as to meet the dangers of climate system disruption.

scholarly journals State of the Climate in 2010

2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (6) ◽  
pp. S1-S236 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Blunden ◽  
D. S. Arndt ◽  
M. O. Baringer
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Antarctic

Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late 2010. It contributed to record snowfall and unusually low temperatures over much of northern Eurasia and parts of the United States, while bringing above-normal temperatures to the high northern latitudes. The February Arctic Oscillation Index value was the most negative since records began in 1950. The 2010 average global land and ocean surface temperature was among the two warmest years on record. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate of lower latitudes. The eastern and tropical Pacific Ocean cooled about 1°C from 2009 to 2010, reflecting the transition from the 2009/10 El Niño to the 2010/11 La Niña. Ocean heat fluxes contributed to warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for the past several years have reached values consistently higher than for all prior times in the record, demonstrating the dominant role of the ocean in the Earth's energy budget. Deep and abyssal waters of Antarctic origin have also trended warmer on average since the early 1990s. Lower tropospheric temperatures typically lag ENSO surface fluctuations by two to four months, thus the 2010 temperature was dominated by the warm phase El Niño conditions that occurred during the latter half of 2009 and early 2010 and was second warmest on record. The stratosphere continued to be anomalously cool. Annual global precipitation over land areas was about five percent above normal. Precipitation over the ocean was drier than normal after a wet year in 2009. Overall, saltier (higher evaporation) regions of the ocean surface continue to be anomalously salty, and fresher (higher precipitation) regions continue to be anomalously fresh. This salinity pattern, which has held since at least 2004, suggests an increase in the hydrological cycle. Sea ice conditions in the Arctic were significantly different than those in the Antarctic during the year. The annual minimum ice extent in the Arctic—reached in September—was the third lowest on record since 1979. In the Antarctic, zonally averaged sea ice extent reached an all-time record maximum from mid-June through late August and again from mid-November through early December. Corresponding record positive Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode Indices influenced the Antarctic sea ice extents. Greenland glaciers lost more mass than any other year in the decade-long record. The Greenland Ice Sheet lost a record amount of mass, as the melt rate was the highest since at least 1958, and the area and duration of the melting was greater than any year since at least 1978. High summer air temperatures and a longer melt season also caused a continued increase in the rate of ice mass loss from small glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Coastal sites in Alaska show continuous permafrost warming and sites in Alaska, Canada, and Russia indicate more significant warming in relatively cold permafrost than in warm permafrost in the same geographical area. With regional differences, permafrost temperatures are now up to 2°C warmer than they were 20 to 30 years ago. Preliminary data indicate there is a high probability that 2010 will be the 20th consecutive year that alpine glaciers have lost mass. Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise and ozone depleting substances continued to decrease. Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm in 2010, a rate above both the 2009 and the 1980–2010 average rates. The global ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2009 transition period from La Niña to El Niño conditions, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, is estimated to be similar to the long-term average. The 2010 Antarctic ozone hole was among the lowest 20% compared with other years since 1990, a result of warmer-than-average temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere during austral winter between mid-July and early September.

Characteristics of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the United States and Mexico: Climatology and Interannual Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 1247-1262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Larson ◽  
Yaping Zhou ◽  
R. Wayne Higgins
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract The climatology and interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones and their impacts on precipitation in the continental United States and Mexico are examined. The analysis is based on National Hurricane Center 6-hourly tropical cyclone track data for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins and gridded daily U.S. precipitation data for the period August–October 1950–98. Geographic maps of total tropical cyclone strike days, and the mean and maximum percentage of precipitation due to tropical cyclones, are examined by month. To make the procedures objective, it is assumed that precipitation is symmetric about the storm’s center. While this introduces some uncertainty in the analysis, sensitivity tests show that this assumption is reasonable for precipitation within 5° of the circulation center. The relationship between landfalling tropical cyclones and two leading patterns of interannual climate variability—El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)—are then examined. Relationships between tropical cyclone frequency and intensity and composites of 200-hPa geopotential height and wind shear anomalies are also examined as a function of ENSO phase and AO phase using classifications devised at the Climate Prediction Center. The data show that tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin is modulated on both seasonal and intraseasonal time scales by the AO and ENSO and that impact of the two modes of climate variability is greater together than apart. This suggests that, during La Niña conditions, atmospheric circulation is more conducive to activity in the main development region during AO-positive conditions than during AO-negative ones and that, during El Niño conditions, atmospheric circulation appears even less conducive to tropical cyclone development during the negative phase of the AO than during the positive phase.

scholarly journals The Hiatus in Global Warming and Interactions between the El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Comparing Observations and Modeling Results

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Knut Seip ◽  
Hui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Common Cycles ◽  
Hadley Centre

Ocean oscillations interact across large regions and these interactions may explain cycles in global temperature anomaly, including hiatus periods. Here, we examine ocean interaction measures and compare results from model simulations to observations for El Niño and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We use the global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre. A relatively novel method for identifying running leading-agging LL-relations show that the observed El Niño generally leads the observed PDO and this pattern is strengthened in the simulations. However, LL-pattern in both observations and models shows that there are three periods, around 1910–1920, around 1960 and around 2000 where El Niño lags PDO, or the leading signature is weak. These periods correspond to hiatus periods in global warming. The power spectral density analysis, (PSD), identifies various ocean cycle lengths in El Niño and PDO, but the LL-algorithm picks out common cycles of 7–8 and 24 years that shows leading-lagging relations between them.

An introduction to the Beyond El Niño conference: climate variability and marine ecosystem impacts from the tropics to the Arctic

2001 ◽  
Vol 49 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.M McKinnell ◽  
R.D Brodeur ◽  
K Hanawa ◽  
A.B Hollowed ◽  
J.J Polovina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ecosystem Impacts ◽  
The Tropics
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