Deteminant factors to improve Indonesian cocoa performance

Abstract Encouraging the growth of Indonesia’s agricultural sector is important for improving the export performance of Indonesia’s leading commodities. The purpose of the study was to determine the effect of the IDR exchange rate and the shock of the determinants of cocoa exports on the growth of Indonesian cocoa exports. The research was conducted using time series data from 1969-2017. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The analysis showed that the data is stationary at the first difference. The causality test shows that cocoa production, IDR exchange rate, GDP affect the growth of Indonesian cocoa exports, but world cocoa prices have no effect on cocoa exports. The results of the impulse response factor (IRF) analysis show that the response of cocoa exports to changes in the exchange rate is more volatile when compared to the response of production, GDP, and world cocoa prices to Indonesian cocoa exports. Analysis of variance decomposition shows that the contribution of the IDR exchange rate to export growth is greater than the contribution of world cocoa prices, GDP, and production at the beginning of exports, however over time the influence of the IDR exchange rate will decrease and it is the number of production factors that will affect Indonesia’s cocoa exports. Indonesia needs to increase production by maintaining the quality of cocoa according to export needs considering the demand for cocoa that will continue to increase. Bilateral or multilateral cooperation is needed to strengthen cocoa export cooperation with major importing.

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Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Jumlah Penghimpunan Zakat di Indonesia

Jurnal Ekonomi ◽

10.24912/je.v25i2.652 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 25 (2) ◽

pp. 199

Author(s):

Sheema Haseena Armina

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Dollar Exchange Rate ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

Analysis Technique

Purpose this study analyzes the effect of the industrial production index, the dollar exchange rate, inflation and the BI 7DRR on the amount of zakat collection from January 2015 to December 2018to identify the potential of zakat to support alleviation in Indonesia. Methodology/Approach: this study uses a quantitative approach with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) data analysis technique with time series data from Januari 2015 t0 December 2018. Findings: The results show that in short term causality, there is an effect between long-term and short-term between zakat as the dependent variable with inflation and the dollar exchange rate. However, there is no short-term causality effect between BI 7-DRR and IPI to the amount of zakat while the long-term causality effect, all independent variables have a significant effect to the dependent variable namely zakat. Implications: The integration of Islamic philanthropic institutions has the potential to channel aid and support to alleviate poverty. This study adds the IPI variable to interpret the GDP variable in analyzing its effect on zakat.

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A Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Efficacy of External Reserves Management on Exchange Rate Stability: Evidence from Nigeria

Journal of Economics Management and Trade ◽

10.9734/jemt/2019/v24i530173 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Ikechukwu Kelikume ◽

Stanley Emife Nwani

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Empirical Result ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Exchange Rate Volatility ◽

International Reserves ◽

Series Data ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Dynamic Relationship ◽

Vector Error ◽

Monetary Authorities

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between exchange rate variations and international reserves in Nigeria. The study aimed at ascertaining whether a lead-lag relationship exists between both phenomena using monthly time series data on the bureau de change exchange rate and international reserves extracted from the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank covering 108 observations between January 2010 and December 2018. The econometric techniques utilized included the Granger causality based on the vector error correction mechanism and the AR inverse root test for stability and reliability. The empirical result indicates the absence of causality between exchange rate volatility and international reserves fluctuations for Nigeria. Based on our empirical result, the study vehemently concluded that monetary authorities do not have to depend on external reserves management as an efficient strategy to stabilizing the value of the Nigerian currency. Thus, external reserves accumulation could be a face lifting parameter for credit ratings and attraction of needed capital to stimulate the much desired economic growth in Nigeria.

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The Influence of Economic Transformation From The Agricultural Sector To The Industrial Sector To Economic Growth In Indonesia

Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan ◽

10.33005/jdep.v1i1.64 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 6-11

Author(s):

Abdulrahman Taresh Abdullah ◽

Mohammad Wasil

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Industrial Sector ◽

Economic Transformation ◽

Series Data ◽

Correction Model ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Industrial Sectors ◽

Vector Error

The purpose of this research is the research and development of the industrial sector's economy to the agricultural sector, as well as the influence of agricultural and industrial sectors on economic growth in Indonesia. The data used is time series data, 1960-2015. The method used in this research is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). From the estimation results, it is concluded that the economic growth rate and the industrial sector negatively affect the agricultural sector, it can be said that the increasing economic growth achieved in Indonesia has increased the industrial sector and lower the agricultural sector. While the results of research that the agricultural sector negatively affect the economic growth while the industrial sector positively affects economic growth, in the sense that the agricultural sector has a bad contribution in economic growth in Indonesia.

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The National Banking Crisis in Applied Early Warning System (EWS)

Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan ◽

10.33005/jdep.v1i1.68 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 37-45

Author(s):

Nadia Sasri W

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Warning System ◽

Industrial Sector ◽

Series Data ◽

Correction Model ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Industrial Sectors ◽

Vector Error

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The Dynamic of Macroeconomics Elements in Malaysia: Further Insight into Causality Analysis

Journal of International Business, Economics and Entrepreneurship ◽

10.24191/jibe.v4i1.14320 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Dayang Hummida Abang Abdul Rahman ◽

Nuzaihan Majidi ◽

Jati Kasuma ◽

Yusman Yacob ◽

Dayang Affizzah Awang Marikan

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Unit Root Test ◽

Series Data ◽

Causality Analysis ◽

Causality Test ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

Long Run ◽

Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽

Short Run

This paper intends to explore the causality effect between Growth Domestic Product (GDP), population and unemployment in Malaysia. Based on the observation of Malaysia’s historical data, there is a distinct movement in each of these individual macroeconomics components over the years. Past literature within the same area has illustrated various patterns on the possibility of a causal relationship that each variable has on one another. Several stages of analysis are conducted to verify the presence of causality effect from Malaysian economic perspective, which includes unit root test that employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) procedures, followed by Johansen and Juselius test of cointegration and Granger-causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using E-views software. Each procedure is conducted using Malaysia’s time series data for each of the three elements from 1980 to 2013 obtained from Malaysia’s Department of Statistics. Our findings revealed that there is one cointegration detected for the tested variables; whereas the results indicate that population can Granger cause unemployment in the short run. Furthermore, it is found that unemployment solely bears the effect from short run adjustment to bring about the long run equilibrium within the tested framework. This study is important for the policy maker to understand the reason behind the causality effect that could jeopardize the rate of unemployment in Malaysia. As the attention is given specifically to three variables particularly GDP, population and unemployment, this study is aimed at broadening the prospect for further investigation within the same area of macroeconomics.

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Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment

ETIKONOMI ◽

10.15408/etk.v19i2.17206 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 19 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Budiandru Budiandru ◽

Sari Yuniarti

Keyword(s):

Interest Rates ◽

Stock Price ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Islamic Banking ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Investment Financing ◽

Vector Error ◽

Operational Activities

Investment financing is one of the operational activities of Islamic banking to encourage the real sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic turmoil on investment financing, analyze the response to investment financing, and analyze each variable's contribution in explaining the diversity of investment financing. This study uses monthly time series data from 2009 to 2020 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The results show that the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates significantly affect Islamic banking investment financing in the long term. The response to investment financing is the fastest to achieve stability when it responds to shocks to the composite stock price index. Inflation is the most significant contribution in explaining diversity in investment financing. Islamic banking should increase the proportion of funding for investment. Customers can have a larger business scale to encourage economic growth, with investment financing increasing.JEL Classification: E22, G11, G24How to Cite:Budiandru., & Yuniarti, S. (2020). Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(2), xx – xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i2.17206.

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COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH ◽

10.29121/granthaalayah.v5.i10.2017.2303 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 5 (10) ◽

pp. 263-269

Author(s):

Ranjusha ◽

Devasia ◽

Nandakumar

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Unit Root Test ◽

Gold Price ◽

Series Data ◽

Annual Data ◽

Causality Test ◽

Long Run ◽

Integration Test ◽

The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

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The impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on profitability of Islamic rural bank in Indonesia

JURNAL ILMIAH EKONOMI ISLAM ◽

10.29040/jiei.v5i3.635 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Muhammad Sanusi

Keyword(s):

Banking Sector ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Series Data ◽

Estimation Model ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Vector Error ◽

The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank (BPRS) in Indonesia. Using monthly time series data from January 2010 - December 2018. The estimation model used is a vector error correction model to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results showed that CAR and LnTA had a significant positive relationship, while NPF, BOPO and IPI had a negative and significant relationship to the profitability of Islamic rural banks. But FDR and Inflation variables are not significantly related to the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results leave implications for policy makers, investors and banking sector managers. Based on evidence that bank profitability is more influenced by internal banks (as specific as banks), this research can help Islamic rural banks to help them understand which factors are important to be analyzed to obtain higher profitability.

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INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DAN RETURN SAHAM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

Signifikan Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi ◽

10.15408/sjie.v2i2.2421 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Utami Baroroh

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Discount Rate ◽

Stock Return ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Empirical Test ◽

Cointegration Test ◽

Series Data ◽

Causality Test ◽

Us Dollar

The objectives of this study are to examine empirical test the long term equilibrium and simulteneous relationship between macroeconomics variables to stock return in Indonesia and to observe stock return response because shock/innovation of inflation, SBI discount rate and exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar. The data sample used in this study are monthly time series data from 2003.1 – 2010.6. Those data are SBI discount rate, inflation (CPI), exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar, money supply and stock return (IHSG). A method of analysis in this study are Granger Causality Test and Cointegration test. The empirical results shows that SBI discount rate, inflation (CPI), and exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar have causality relationship to stock return.. The cointegration test indicates that among research variables there is long term equilibrium and simultaneous relationshipDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v2i2.2421

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Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Vector Error Correction Modelling and Granger Causality Test

Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies ◽

10.22610/jebs.v9i4.1831 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 164

Author(s):

Kagiso Molefe ◽

Ireen Choga

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

South Africa ◽

Error Correction ◽

Granger Causality ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Government Expenditure ◽

Series Data ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

The Relationship

Previous studies generally find mixed empirical evidence on the relationship between government spending and economic growth. This study re-examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa for the period of 1990 to 2015 using the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality techniques. The time series data included in the model were gross domestic Product (GDP), government expenditure, national savings, government debt and consumer price index or inflation. Results obtained from the analysis showed a negative long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. Furthermore, the estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study has revealed that 49 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within of a year. Furthermore, the study discovered that the causality relationship run from economic growth to government expenditure. This implied that the Wagner’s law is applicable to South Africa since government expenditure is an effect rather than a cause of economic growth. The results presented in this study are similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by preceding studies.

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