Outcomes of Political Decision Making

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcus M. Weymiller ◽  
Christopher W. Larimer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Good Reason ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Group Outcomes ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Random Fluctuations

“Decision outcomes” refers to mass political behavior as well as decisions by elites in the policy arena. Such outcomes are naturally the product of the decision-making process, a process that has been informed considerably by research in areas outside of political science. Political and policy processes are less defined by rational responses to incoming information than by pre-existing cognitive biases favoring narratives, stories, and symbols. Thus, to accurately understand decision outcomes requires an interdisciplinary approach, and, indeed, the discipline of political science has increasingly incorporated insights from psychology, social psychology, sociology, behavioral economics, and other social and natural sciences. Decision outcomes may reflect the true preferences of decision-makers, but behavior and outcomes have also been shown to change dramatically depending on who knows (or will know) the decision. Considering decision outcomes as the dependent variable, several factors have been identified that consistently and significantly shape outcomes in the political and policy worlds. Political outcomes, such as voting (by citizens and elites), are often explained by focusing on party ID or partisanship, and for good reason, but there are also instances in which decision outcomes are better encapsulated by more localized factors or influences. Policy outcomes, on the other hand, are less easily defined or predicted. Emotional testimonies and random fluctuations affect whether an issue is acted upon by a legislative body. Attention to social context and a concern for fairness is a primary driver of decision outcomes in social situations. In particular, leader–follower dynamics and group outcomes are significantly affected by the process in which decisions are made.

scholarly journals Chameleonic knowledge: a study of ex ante analysis in large infrastructure policy processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Dorren ◽  
Wouter Van Dooren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Knowledge Use ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Substantive Content ◽  
Infrastructure Policy ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Ex Ante

AbstractUsing ex ante analysis to predict policy outcomes is common practice in the world of infrastructure planning. However, accounts of its uses and merits vary widely. Advisory agencies and government think tanks advocate this practice to prevent cost overruns, short-term decision-making and suboptimal choices. Academic studies on knowledge use, on the other hand, are critical of how knowledge can be used in decision making. Research has found that analyses often have no impact at all on decision outcomes or are mainly conducted to provide decision makers with the confidence to decide rather than with objective facts. In this paper, we use an ethnographic research design to understand how it is possible that the use of ex ante analysis can be depicted in such contradictory ways. We suggest that the substantive content of ex ante analysis plays a limited role in understanding its depictions and uses. Instead, it is the process of conducting an ex ante analysis itself that unfolds in such a manner that the analysis can be interpreted and used in many different and seemingly contradictory ways. In policy processes, ex ante analysis is like a chameleon, figuratively changing its appearance based on its environment.

scholarly journals Mechanisms of Representation

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Will Jennings
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Political System ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
The Political ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Regulatory State ◽  
The Public

“Mechanisms of representation” relate to the organization of politics and its consequences, and the processes through which interests or preferences are represented in the political system and the outcomes of public policy. This article explores a diverse set of mechanisms through which politics is organized, and through which the preferences or interests of the public, voters, groups, and economic interests are either advanced or obstructed. Traditional approaches of political science often adopted a narrow focus on the formal democratic qualities of elected government and the pluralism of the political system in incorporating different interests or preferences into the decision-making process and policy outcomes. Later waves of research sought to explore bias in mechanisms of representation, such as the disproportionate influence of interest groups in the governmental process and the power of agenda setting in determining which issues make it onto the decision-making table and when. Nevertheless, there continues to be considerable interest in the role of formal political institutions in determining the performance of representative democracy, how political parties act as vehicles for representation, and how elections can provide mandates to governments and enable voters to reward or punish political parties or candidates for the quality of their representation or performance. Indeed, a growing field of enquiry identifies a direct link between the preferences of the public and their representatives, either in the representation of constituency opinion or in the responsiveness of the political system as a whole. Despite this pervasive concern throughout the discipline of political science with the functioning of democratic politics, important changes in modern states, economies, and societies occurring outside elected institutions also shape representation, particularly as executive governance and politics has assumed increasing importance. The conventional understanding of mechanisms of representation is built upon shifting sands, with the emergence of the “regulatory state” and the decline of traditional distributive and command activities of government, and with ever more “networked,” “nonhierarchical,” and “transnational” modes of governing—often by unelected authorities. These changing institutional arrangements also reflect a response to the rise of risk as a focus of organization, as traditional social and economic cleavages are redrawn and reconstructed around questions of risk—often manmade, created through scientific innovation or economic progress. These changes point toward the changing battleground for representation both of public and political interests and the increasing importance of understanding questions of bureaucratic politics and control, transnational regulation, the management of risk, and the preoccupation of officeholders with the avoidance of blame. Mechanisms of representation shed light on all these things and more, encompassing the role of institutions in reflecting public or private interests in the decision-making process.

scholarly journals Chameleonic knowledge: a study of ex ante analysis in large infrastructure policy processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Dorren ◽  
Wouter Van Dooren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Knowledge Use ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Substantive Content ◽  
Infrastructure Policy ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Ex Ante

Using ex ante analysis to predict policy outcomes is common practice in the world of infra- structure planning. However, accounts of its uses and merits vary widely. Advisory agencies and government think tanks advocate this practice to prevent cost overruns, short-term decision-making and suboptimal choices. Academic studies on knowledge use, on the other hand, are critical of how knowledge can be used in decision making. Research has found that analyses often have no impact at all on decision outcomes or are mainly conducted to provide decision makers with the confidence to decide rather than with objective facts. In this paper, we use an ethnographic research design to understand how it is possible that the use of ex ante analysis can be depicted in such contradictory ways. We suggest that the substantive content of ex ante analysis plays a limited role in understanding its depictions and uses. Instead, it is the process of conducting an ex ante analysis itself that unfolds in such a manner that the analysis can be interpreted and used in many different and seemingly contradictory ways. In policy processes, ex ante analysis is like a chameleon, figuratively changing its appearance based on its environment.

On Social Psychological Handy Work: An Interpretive Review of The Handbook of Social Psychology, Second Edition

1977 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 1109-1120
Author(s):  
Richard M. Merelman
Keyword(s):  
Social Psychology ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Cognitive Theory ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Leadership Behavior ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Social Psychological ◽  
Selective Perception ◽  
Social Psychological Research

This paper reviews the new Handbook of Social Psychology, with a special eye towards its utility for political scientists. The review focuses on theory, methodology, substantive areas of social psychological research, and political applications of social psychological findings. Special attention is paid to Handbook articles of particular merit and application to political science. These include articles on cognitive theory, experimentation, observational analyses and sociometry, as well as articles which add to our knowledge of such politically important problems as reasoning, compliance, and decision making. Throughout, important findings relevant to the operations of politics are spotlighted. These include, inter alia, cognitive biases towards the perception of unequal influence, the “risky shift,” constraints on selective perception, and characteristics of leadership behavior. Omissions, theoretical flaws, and errors due to the “datedness” of findings are also discussed.

Confirmation bias in decision making for fingerprints, DNA and eyewitness evidence cannot be explained by cognitive style or thinking dispositions.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Edgcumbe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Style ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Criminal Case ◽  
Court Cases ◽  
Legal Proceedings ◽  
Thinking Dispositions ◽  
Evaluation Of Evidence ◽  
Facial Composite

Pre-existing beliefs about the background or guilt of a suspect can bias the subsequent evaluation of evidence for forensic examiners and lay people alike. This biasing effect, called the confirmation bias, has influenced legal proceedings in prominent court cases such as that of Brandon Mayfield. Today many forensic providers attempt to train their examiners against these cognitive biases. Nine hundred and forty-two participants read a fictional criminal case and received either neutral, incriminating or exonerating evidence (fingerprint, eyewitness, or DNA) before providing an initial rating of guilt. Participants then viewed ambiguous evidence (alibi, facial composite, handwriting sample or informant statement) before providing a final rating of guilt. Final guilt ratings were higher for all evidence conditions (neutral, incriminating or exonerating) following exposure to the ambiguous evidence. This provides evidence that the confirmation bias influences the evaluation of evidence.

scholarly journals Legal and Technical Feasibility of the GDPR’s Quest for Explanation of Algorithmic Decisions: of Black Boxes, White Boxes and Fata Morganas

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maja BRKAN ◽  
Grégory BONNET
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
General Data Protection Regulation ◽  
Legal Limits ◽  
Black Boxes ◽  
General Data ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Right ◽  
Automated Decision Making

Understanding of the causes and correlations for algorithmic decisions is currently one of the major challenges of computer science, addressed under an umbrella term “explainable AI (XAI)”. Being able to explain an AI-based system may help to make algorithmic decisions more satisfying and acceptable, to better control and update AI-based systems in case of failure, to build more accurate models, and to discover new knowledge directly or indirectly. On the legal side, the question whether the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) provides data subjects with the right to explanation in case of automated decision-making has equally been the subject of a heated doctrinal debate. While arguing that the right to explanation in the GDPR should be a result of interpretative analysis of several GDPR provisions jointly, the authors move this debate forward by discussing the technical and legal feasibility of the explanation of algorithmic decisions. Legal limits, in particular the secrecy of algorithms, as well as technical obstacles could potentially obstruct the practical implementation of this right. By adopting an interdisciplinary approach, the authors explore not only whether it is possible to translate the EU legal requirements for an explanation into the actual machine learning decision-making, but also whether those limitations can shape the way the legal right is used in practice.

scholarly journals Cognitive biases, environmental, patient and personal factors associated with critical care decision making: A scoping review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iris E. Beldhuis ◽  
Ramesh S. Marapin ◽  
You Yuan Jiang ◽  
Nádia F. Simões de Souza ◽  
Artemis Georgiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Care ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Personal Factors ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Care Decision

Errors in Surgical Neuropathology and the Influence of Cognitive Biases: The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 130 (5) ◽  
pp. 613-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger E. McLendon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Psychology ◽  
Medical Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Correct Diagnosis ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Medical Decision ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
First Impression ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Abstract Context.—A significant difficulty that pathologists encounter in arriving at a correct diagnosis is related to the way information from various sources is processed and assimilated in context. Objective.—These issues are addressed by the science of cognitive psychology. Although cognitive biases are the focus of a number of studies on medical decision making, few if any focus on the visual sciences. Data Sources.—A recent publication authored by Richards Heuer, Jr, The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, directly addresses many of the cognitive biases faced by neuropathologists and anatomic pathologists in general. These biases include visual anticipation, first impression, and established mindsets and subconsciously influence our critical decision-making processes. Conclusions.—The book points out that while biases are an inherent property of cognition, the influence of such biases can be recognized and the effects blunted.

Political Science and Changing Politics

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Science ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
The Political ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Political Issue ◽  
Adolescent Daughter ◽  
Football Coach ◽  
Power And Influence

Politics is about conflict, struggle, decision-making, power and influence. But not every conflict and not every situation in which power is exercised is widely regarded as politics. A football coach who decides to leave a player on the bench because he has given him a bit of lip, is exerting power, and there is conflict here, too. However, few people would consider this a political issue. The same applies to a mother who quarrels with her adolescent daughter about going to a house party, a schoolteacher who gives a student detention, and so on. But if we were to limit our understanding of politics to official decisions that are taken by governments, in parliaments or on municipal councils, we would fail to recognise the political meaning of trade unions, lobbyists, protest groups, corporations and other more-or-less organised groups that influence collective decision-making.

Cognitive biases in diagnosis and decision making during anaesthesia and intensive care

BJA Education ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 420-425
Author(s):  
C.S. Webster ◽  
S. Taylor ◽  
J.M. Weller
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Cognitive Biases
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