scholarly journals Changes in SARS CoV-2 Seroprevalence Over Time in Ten Sites in the United States, March – August, 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Travis Lim ◽  
Mark Delorey ◽  
Nicolette Bestul ◽  
Michael Johannsen ◽  
Carrie Reed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Population Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Geographic Scale ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Monitoring of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody prevalence can complement case reporting to inform more accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection burden, but few studies have undertaken repeated sampling over time on a broad geographic scale. Methods We performed serologic testing on a convenience sample of residual sera obtained from persons of all ages, at ten sites in the United States from March 23 through August 14, 2020, from routine clinical testing at commercial laboratories. We age-sex-standardized our seroprevalence rates using census population projections and adjusted for laboratory assay performance. Confidence intervals were generated with a two-stage bootstrap. We used Bayesian modeling to test whether seroprevalence changes over time were statistically significant. Results Seroprevalence remained below 10% at all sites except New York and Florida, where it reached 23.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Statistically significant increases in seroprevalence followed peaks in reported cases in New York, South Florida, Utah, Missouri and Louisiana. In the absence of such peaks, some significant decreases were observed over time in New York, Missouri, Utah, and Western Washington. The estimated cumulative number of infections with detectable antibody response continued to exceed reported cases in all sites. Conclusions Estimated seroprevalence was low in most sites, indicating that most people in the U.S. have not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 as of July 2020. The majority of infections are likely not reported. Decreases in seroprevalence may be related to changes in healthcare-seeking behavior, or evidence of waning of detectable anti-SARS CoV-2 antibody levels at the population level. Thus, seroprevalence estimates may underestimate the cumulative incidence of infection.

Calculating Age-Standardized Death Rates Among People With HIV Comparable Across Jurisdictions and Over Time

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-126
Author(s):  
Qiang Xia ◽  
Ying Sun ◽  
Chitra Ramaswamy ◽  
Lucia V. Torian ◽  
Wenhui Li
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Local Health ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Over Time

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and local health jurisdictions have been using HIV surveillance data to monitor mortality among people with HIV in the United States with age-standardized death rates, but the principles of age standardization have not been consistently followed, making age standardization lose its purpose—comparison over time, across jurisdictions, or by other characteristics. We review the current practices of age standardization in calculating death rates among people with HIV in the United States, discuss the principles of age standardization including those specific to the HIV population whose age distribution differs markedly from that of the US 2000 standard population, make recommendations, and report age-standardized death rates among people with HIV in New York City. When we restricted the analysis population to adults aged between 18 and 84 years in New York City, the age-standardized death rate among people with HIV decreased from 20.8 per 1000 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19.2, 22.3) in 2013 to 17.1 per 1000 (95% CI = 15.8, 18.3) in 2017, and the age-standardized death rate among people without HIV decreased from 5.8 per 1000 in 2013 to 5.5 per 1000 in 2017.

scholarly journals Trends in incidence and epidemiologic characteristics of cerebral venous thrombosis in the United States

Neurology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 95 (16) ◽  
pp. e2200-e2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadar Oliver Otite ◽  
Smit Patel ◽  
Richa Sharma ◽  
Pushti Khandwala ◽  
Devashish Desai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Venous Thrombosis ◽  
Cerebral Venous Thrombosis ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Age And Sex

ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that race-, age-, and sex-specific incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) has increased in the United States over the last decade.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, validated ICD codes were used to identify all new cases of CVT (n = 5,567) in the State Inpatients Databases (SIDs) of New York and Florida (2006–2016). A new CVT case was defined as first hospitalization for CVT in the SID without prior CVT hospitalization. CVT counts were combined with annual Census data to compute incidence. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate trends in incidence over time.ResultsFrom 2006 to 2016, annual age- and sex-standardized incidence of CVT in cases per 1 million population ranged from 13.9 to 20.2, but incidence varied significantly by sex (women 20.3–26.9, men 6.8–16.8) and by age/sex (women 18–44 years of age 24.0–32.6, men 18–44 years of age 5.3–12.8). Incidence also differed by race (Blacks: 18.6–27.2; Whites: 14.3–18.5; Asians: 5.1–13.8). On joinpoint regression, incidence increased across 2006 to 2016, but most of this increase was driven by an increase in all age groups of men (combined annualized percentage change [APC] 9.2%, p < 0.001), women 45 to 64 years of age (APC 7.8%, p < 0.001), and women ≥65 years of age (APC 7.4%, p < 0.001). Incidence in women 18 to 44 years of age remained unchanged over time.ConclusionCVT incidence is disproportionately higher in Blacks compared to other races. New CVT hospitalizations increased significantly over the last decade mainly in men and older women. Further studies are needed to determine whether this increase represents a true increase from changing risk factors or an artifactual increase from improved detection.

Second-Generation Contextual Mobility: Neighborhood Attainment from Birth to Young Adulthood in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Van C. Tran
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Life Course ◽  
Young Adulthood ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Neighborhood Context ◽  
The Life Course ◽  
Over Time

This article examines trajectories of neighborhood mobility for the post-1965 second generation in the United States. It advances the concept of second-generation contextual mobility, defined as the change in neighborhood context over the life course among the second generation. This analysis uses unique geocoded longitudinal data over three decades to documents patterns of second-generation neighborhood attainment. Compared to US blacks, the second generation has achieved significant contextual mobility both over time and across generations. Specifically, the second generation in this New York sample lived in better neighborhoods in young adulthood compared to birth neighborhood where their parents once lived. Most groups moved away from the most disadvantaged areas, with the exception of Dominicans. While the second generation has yet to achieve neighborhood parity with US whites, they have already surpassed US blacks in neighborhood attainment. Second-generation contextual mobility is thus an important, but missing, piece in established accounts of neighborhood mobility in the United States.

scholarly journals Modelling the effect of lockdown on COVID-19 pandemic in 22 countries and cities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Li ◽  
Yan Wu ◽  
Ximei Wang ◽  
Caihong Guo ◽  
Lianwen Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
The United States ◽  
Inhibitory Effect ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Short Time

Abstract Backgrounds: COVID-19 is currently spreading around the world, and the cumulative number of cases worldwide exceeded 5 million on 23 May 2020 (10:00 GMT+2). At present, many countries or cities have implemented lockdown measures. This study evaluated the inhibitory effect of lockdown measures on the pandemic by the use of lockdown or similar lockdown in 22 countries or cities. Methods: An SEIQR epidemiological model was developed to capture the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. With the data related to COVID-19 from 22 countries or cities, the optimal parameters of the model were estimated, respectively.Results: The average basic reproduction numbers of 22 countries or cities were between 1.5286-3.8067. And Russia Federation, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Singapore, the United States of New York and the United States of New Jersey were hardest hit by COVID-19. Conclusion: Although the pandemic has not been fundamentally controlled for a short time after lockdown, lockdown was proved to be an extremely effective control measure, which significantly scaled the number of patients down, thereby reduced the harmfulness of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Emergence of Groundnut ringspot virus and Tomato chlorotic spot virus in Vegetables in Florida and the Southeastern United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (3) ◽  
pp. 388-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig G. Webster ◽  
Galen Frantz ◽  
Stuart R. Reitz ◽  
Joseph E. Funderburk ◽  
H. Charles Mellinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Ringspot Virus ◽  
Spot Virus ◽  
Genomic Rnas ◽  
Chlorotic Spot

Groundnut ringspot virus (GRSV) and Tomato chlorotic spot virus (TCSV) are two emerging tospoviruses in Florida. In a survey of the southeastern United States, GRSV and TCSV were frequently detected in solanaceous crops and weeds with tospovirus-like symptoms in south Florida, and occurred sympatrically with Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in tomato and pepper in south Florida. TSWV was the only tospovirus detected in other survey locations, with the exceptions of GRSV from tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) in South Carolina and New York, both of which are first reports. Impatiens (Impatiens walleriana) and lettuce (Lactuca sativa) were the only non-solanaceous GRSV and/or TCSV hosts identified in experimental host range studies. Little genetic diversity was observed in GRSV and TCSV sequences, likely due to the recent introductions of both viruses. All GRSV isolates characterized were reassortants with the TCSV M RNA. In laboratory transmission studies, Frankliniella schultzei was a more efficient vector of GRSV than F. occidentalis. TCSV was acquired more efficiently than GRSV by F. occidentalis but upon acquisition, transmission frequencies were similar. Further spread of GRSV and TCSV in the United States is possible and detection of mixed infections highlights the opportunity for additional reassortment of tospovirus genomic RNAs.

Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Romm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
The United States ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Making A Difference ◽  
Climate Treaty ◽  
Clear And Present Danger ◽  
Combat Climate Change ◽  
The Right

This is, for my money, the best single-source primer on the state of climate change. (New York Magazine) “The right book at the right time: accessible, comprehensive, unflinching, humane.” (The Daily Beast) “A must-read.” (The Guardian) The essential primer on what will be the defining issue of our time, CLIMATE CHANGE: What Everyone Needs to Know® is a clear-eyed overview of the science, conflicts, and implications of our warming planet. From Joseph Romm, Chief Science Advisor for National Geographic’s Years of Living Dangerously series and one of Rolling Stone’s “100 people who are changing America,” CLIMATE CHANGE offers user-friendly, scientifically rigorous answers to the most difficult (and commonly politicized) questions surrounding what climatologist Lonnie Thompson has deemed “a clear and present danger to civilization.” Questions about climate change addressed in this guide include:· How will climate change affect day-to-day life in the coming decades? · What are the implications of owning coastal property in the age of climate change? · Is retirement to South Florida (or the U.S. Southwest, or even Southern Europe) safe? · What are the implications of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris climate treaty? · What does Donald Trump’s presidency mean for climate action in the United States and around the globe? · Are efforts to combat climate change making a difference? As the global response to climate change continues to evolve, CLIMATE CHANGE: What Everyone Needs to Know® offers smart, unblemished answers to the most difficult questions in an area dogged by misunderstanding and politicization.

scholarly journals Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case-fatality rates using decomposition methods: Contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Dudel ◽  
Tim Riffe ◽  
Enrique Acosta ◽  
Alyson van Raalte ◽  
Cosmo Strozza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe population-level case-fatality rate (CFR) associated with COVID-19 varies substantially, both across countries time and within countries over time. We analyze the contribution of two key determinants of the variation in the observed CFR: the age-structure of diagnosed infection cases and age-specific case-fatality rates. We use data on diagnosed COVID-19 cases and death counts attributable to COVID-19 by age for China, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Spain, the United States, and New York City. We calculate the CFR for each population at the latest data point and also for Italy over time. We use demographic decomposition to break the difference between CFRs into unique contributions arising from the age-structure of confirmed cases and the age-specific case-fatality. In late April 2020, CFRs varied from 2.2% in South Korea to 13.0% in Italy. The age-structure of detected cases often explains more than two thirds of cross-country variation in the CFR. In Italy, the CFR increased from 4.2% to 13.0% between March 9 and April 22, 2020, and more than 90% of the change was due to increasing age-specific case-fatality rates. The importance of the age-structure of confirmed cases likely reflects several factors, including different testing regimes and differences in transmission trajectories; while increasing age-specific case-fatality rates in Italy could indicate other factors, such as the worsening health outcomes of those infected with COVID-19. Our findings lend support to recommendations for data to be disaggregated by age, and potentially other variables, to facilitate a better understanding of population-level differences in CFRs. They also show the need for well designed seroprevalence studies to ascertain the extent to which differences in testing regimes drive differences in the age-structure of detected cases.

scholarly journals Monitoring trends and differences in COVID-19 case fatality rates using decomposition methods: Contributions of age structure and age-specific fatality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Dudel ◽  
Tim Riffe ◽  
Enrique Acosta ◽  
Alyson A van Raalte ◽  
Cosmo Strozza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Over Time

The population-level case-fatality rate (CFR) associated with COVID-19 varies substantially, both across countries time and within countries over time. We analyze the contribution of two key determinants of the variation in the observed CFR: the age-structure of diagnosed infection cases and age-specific case-fatality rates. We use data on diagnosed COVID-19 cases and death counts attributable to COVID-19 by age for China, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Spain, the United States, and New York City. We calculate the CFR for each population at the latest data point and also for Italy over time. We use demographic decomposition to break the difference between CFRs into unique contributions arising from the age-structure of confirmed cases and the age-specific case-fatality. In late April 2020, CFRs varied from 2.2% in South Korea to 13.0% in Italy. The age-structure of detected cases often explains more than two thirds of cross-country variation in the CFR. In Italy, the CFR increased from 4.2% to 13.0% between March 9 and April 22, 2020, and more than 90% of the change was due to increasing age-specific case-fatality rates. The importance of the age-structure of confirmed cases likely reflects several factors, including different testing regimes and differences in transmission trajectories; while increasing age-specific case-fatality rates in Italy could indicate other factors, such as the worsening health outcomes of those infected with COVID-19. Our findings lend support to recommendations for data to be disaggregated by age, and potentially other variables, to facilitate a better understanding of population-level differences in CFRs. They also show the need for well designed seroprevalence studies to ascertain the extent to which differences in testing regimes drive differences in the age-structure of detected cases.

scholarly journals Forecast of COVID-19 related deaths in the USA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rutger A Middelburg ◽  
Frits R Rosendaal
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
New Jersey ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Future Development ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Usa

Abstract ObjectiveDifferent governments have adopted different containment strategies for SARS-CoV-2. We compared reports of COVID-19 related deaths between countries with different strategies.DesignPublicly available data on numbers of reported COVID-19 related deaths between January 1st and April 2nd 2020 were compared between countries.ResultsIn countries that implemented strict containment strategies as soon as the virus was firmly established (e.g., Italy and Spain) the epidemic developed similarly to the development in China. Extrapolation suggests the cumulative number of deaths in Italy and Spain to rise to about 22,000 and 41,000, respectively. In South Korea where containment strategies were implemented before the virus arrived, the epidemic developed much slower. In the United States, however, where measures were taken later, the epidemic is developing explosively. Cumulative numbers of deaths in the New York, New Jersey, and Michigan area are forecast to reach about 15,000. Of note, 85% of these deaths are likely to occur within the first 50 days of the epidemic (i.e. before the end of April 2020).ConclusionsAlthough the future development of the epidemic remains difficult to predict accurately, current data suggest the United States will experience an explosive increase in deaths due to COVID-19 before the end of April 2020. Drastic measures are needed immediately to prevent other parts of the country from experiencing a development of this epidemic which is as dramatic as that seen in New York, New Jersey and Michigan.

scholarly journals Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Six Sites in the United States, March 23-May 3, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fiona P. Havers ◽  
Carrie Reed ◽  
Travis Lim ◽  
Joel M. Montgomery ◽  
John D. Klena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Puget Sound ◽  
The United States ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Spike Protein ◽  
Specimen Collection

AbstractImportanceReported cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection likely underestimate the prevalence of infection in affected communities. Large-scale seroprevalence studies provide better estimates of the proportion of the population previously infected.ObjectiveTo estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in convenience samples from several geographic sites in the United States.DesignSerologic testing of convenience samples using residual sera obtained for routine clinical testing by two commercial laboratory companies.SettingConnecticut (CT), south Florida (FL), Missouri (MO), New York City metro region (NYC), Utah (UT), and Washington State’s (WA) Puget Sound region.ParticipantsPersons of all ages with serum collected during intervals from March 23 through May 3, 2020.ExposureSARS-CoV-2 virus infection.Main outcomes and measuresWe estimated the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using an ELISA assay. We standardized estimates to the site populations by age and sex. Estimates were adjusted for test performance characteristics (96.0% sensitivity and 99.3% specificity). We estimated the number of infections in each site by extrapolating seroprevalence to site populations. We compared estimated infections to number of reported COVID-19 cases as of last specimen collection date.ResultsWe tested sera from 11,933 persons. Adjusted estimates of the proportion of persons seroreactive to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein ranged from 1.13% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-1.94) in WA to 6.93% (95% CI 5.02-8.92) in NYC (collected March 23-April 1). For sites with later collection dates, estimates ranged from 1.85% (95% CI 1.00-3.23, collected April 6-10) for FL to 4.94% (95% CI 3.61-6.52) for CT (April 26-May 3). The estimated number of infections ranged from 6 to 24 times the number of reported cases in each site.Conclusions and relevanceOur seroprevalence estimates suggest that for five of six U.S. sites, from late March to early May 2020, >10 times more SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred than the number of reported cases. Seroprevalence and under-ascertainment varied by site and specimen collection period. Most specimens from each site had no evidence of antibody to SARS-CoV-2. Tracking population seroprevalence serially, in a variety of specific geographic sites, will inform models of transmission dynamics and guide future community-wide public health measures.Key findingsQuestionWhat proportion of persons in six U.S. sites had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, March 23-May 3, 2020?FindingsWe tested 11,933 residual clinical specimens. We estimate that from 1.1% of persons in the Puget Sound to 6.9% in New York City (collected March 23-April 1) had detectable antibodies. Estimates ranged from 1.9% in south Florida to 4.9% in Connecticut with specimens collected during intervals from April 6-May 3. Six to 24 times more infections were estimated per site with seroprevalence than with case report data.MeaningFor most sites, evidence suggests >10 times more SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred than reported cases. Most persons in each site likely had no detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.

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