scholarly journals Biomarkers for Risk Assessment in Atrial Fibrillation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David D Berg ◽  
Christian T Ruff ◽  
David A Morrow

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of thromboembolism, which can be significantly reduced with anticoagulant treatment. Key goals in the clinical management of AF are the identification of patients at high risk for developing AF and accurate stratification of the risk of stroke and systemic embolic events (S/SEE) as well as treatment-related major bleeding. Content In this review, we describe the expanding evidence regarding the use of circulating biomarkers for predicting the risks of both incident AF and its clinically important complications of S/SEE and treatment-related major bleeding. We also review emerging biomarker-based scores for assessing these risks. Summary Patients with AF undergo progressive cardiac structural remodeling, which may precede the onset of the arrhythmia. Abnormal concentrations of circulating biomarkers reflecting the underlying pathophysiologic mechanisms of hemodynamic stress (i.e., natriuretic peptides), inflammation (i.e., C-reactive protein), and myocardial fibrosis identify patients at higher risk of developing AF. Circulating biomarkers can also be used to identify patients with AF who are at greatest risk for developing S/SEE or major bleeding. In particular, biomarkers of hemodynamic stress, myocardial injury (i.e., cardiac troponin), and coagulation activity (i.e., D-dimer) are key indicators of thromboembolic risk, and cardiac troponin and growth-differentiation factor-15 are strongly associated with risk of anticoagulant-related major bleeding. The biomarker-based age, biomarker, clinical history (ABC)-stroke and ABC-bleeding risk scores improve risk stratification for S/SEE and major bleeding, respectively, when compared with traditional clinical risk scores like the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores.

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. e033283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederik Dalgaard ◽  
Karen Pieper ◽  
Freek Verheugt ◽  
A John Camm ◽  
Keith AA Fox ◽  
...  

ObjectivesTo externally validate the accuracy of the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) model against existing risk scores for stroke and major bleeding risk in patients with non-valvular AF in a population-based cohort.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingDanish nationwide registries.Participants90 693 patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF were included between 2010 and 2016, with follow-up censored at 1 year.Primary and secondary outcome measuresExternal validation was performed using discrimination and calibration plots. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2VASc score for ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and HAS-BLED score for major bleeding/haemorrhagic stroke outcomes.ResultsOf the 90 693 included, 51 180 patients received oral anticoagulants (OAC). Overall median age (Q1, Q3) were 75 (66–83) years and 48 486 (53.5%) were male. At 1-year follow-up, a total of 2094 (2.3%) strokes/SE, 2642 (2.9%) major bleedings and 10 915 (12.0%) deaths occurred. The GARFIELD-AF model was well calibrated with the predicted risk for stroke/SE and major bleeding. The discriminatory value of GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2VASc for predicting stroke in the overall cohort (C-index: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.72 vs C-index: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.68, p<0.001) as well as in low-risk patients (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.69 vs C-index: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.61, p=0.007). The GARFIELD-AF model was comparable to HAS-BLED in predicting the risk of major bleeding in patients on OAC therapy (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.66 vs C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.65, p=0.60).ConclusionIn a nationwide Danish cohort with non-valvular AF, the GARFIELD-AF model adequately predicted the risk of ischaemic stroke/SE and major bleeding. Our external validation confirms that the GARFIELD-AF model was superior to CHA2DS2VASc in predicting stroke/SE and comparable with HAS-BLED for predicting major bleeding.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Bergamaschi ◽  
A Stefanizzi ◽  
M Coriano ◽  
P Paolisso ◽  
I Magnani ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Several risk scores have been proposed to assess the bleeding risk in patients with Atrial Fibrillation. Purpose To compare the efficacy of HAS-BLED, ATRIA and ORBIT scores to predict major bleedings in newly diagnosed non-valvular AF (NV-AF) treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or new oral anticoagulants (NOACs). Methods We analyzed all consecutive patients with AF at our outpatient clinic from January to December 2017. Only those with new diagnosed NV-AF starting new anticoagulant therapy were enrolled. Major hemorrhagic events were defined according to the ISTH definition in non-surgical patients. Results Out of the 820 patients admitted with AF, 305 were newly diagnosed with NV-AF starting oral anticoagulation. Overall, 51.3% were male with a mean age of 72.6±13.7 years. Thirty-six patients (11.8%) started VKAs whereas 269 (88.2%) patients were treated with NOACs. The median follow-up time was 10.4±3.4 months. During follow-up, 123 (32.2%) bleeding events were recorded, 21 (17,1%) in the VKA group and 102 (82,9%) in the NOAC group. Eleven (2.9%) major bleeding events occurred: 5 (45.5%) in the VKA group and 6 (54.5%) in the NOAC group. Overall, patients with major hemorrhagic events showed a mean value of the scores significantly higher when compared to patients without such bleeding complications (HASBLED 3.4 vs 2.4 p=0.007; ATRIA 5.6 vs 2.4 p<0.001; ORBIT 3.6 vs 1.8 p<0,001). Conversely, when analyzing the VKA subgroup, only the ATRIA score was significantly higher in patients with major adverse events (7.4 vs 3.5 p<0.001; HAS-BLED: 4.4 vs 3.6 p=0.27; ORBIT 4.4 vs 2.9 p=0.13). An ATRIA score ≥4 identified patients at high risk of bleeding (29.4% vs. 0% events. respectively, p=0.04). In the NOAC group, patients with major bleeding events had higher mean values of ATRIA (4.0 vs 2.3 p=0.02) and ORBIT (2.8 vs 1.6 p=0,04) but not the HAS-BLED (2.5 vs 2.3 p=0.57) scores. Similarly, patients on NOACs with an ATRIA score ≥4 had higher rates of major bleedings (8.1% vs. 1.6% p=0,02). Comparing the single elements of the ATRIA score, only glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min/1.73 mq was associated with major bleedings in the VKA group (p<0.001) whereas, in the NOAC group, anemia was strongly associated with bleeding events (p=0,02). In fact, multivariate analysis in the NOAC group showed that hemoglobin level at admission was an independent predictor for major bleeding events (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.23–0.75, P=0.003). Conversely, in the VKA group, baseline creatinine level was an independent predictor for these events (OR 12.76, 95% CI 1.6–101.7, P=0.016). Conclusions The ATRIA score showed the best efficacy in predicting major bleeding events. Hemoglobin and creatinine levels at admission were independent predictors for major hemorrhagic events in the NOAC and in the VKA groups, respectively. The latter finding might be helpful in stratifying the hemorrhagic risk at the beginning of treatment.


2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
David S. Roffman

A review of the literature was conducted for clinical trials evaluating the antiplatelet P2Y12 receptor antagonists, clopidogrel, prasugrel, and ticagrelor, as well as the guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or myocardial infarction. Clinical guidelines recommend that patients with ACS be treated with dual oral antiplatelet therapy of aspirin plus clopidogrel, prasugrel, or ticagrelor. The selection of an appropriate antiplatelet agent depends on the treatment approach and a patient’s bleeding risk and clinical history. With respect to antiplatelet activity, prasugrel and ticagrelor demonstrate greater potency and less interpatient variability than clopidogrel. In phase III clinical trials, prasugrel and ticagrelor reduced the incidence of ischemic events in patients with ACS compared with clopidogrel. Ticagrelor and clopidogrel were associated with a similar risk of major bleeding, whereas patients receiving prasugrel had an increased risk of major bleeding versus those receiving clopidogrel. Pharmacists can provide guidance on the appropriate use of antiplatelet agents as well as the use of concomitant medications, while being vigilant for any potential drug interactions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Novello ◽  
A Graceffa ◽  
C Ninivaggi ◽  
G I Greco ◽  
F Bonfante ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Due to the fear of increased risk of bleeding, anticoagulation treatment is underutilized in the prevention of stroke in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Although direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) are safer than VKA, still little is known about the risk factors associated with bleeding in elderly patients treated with DOAC. Furthermore, it is still uncertain whether the risk scores that are currently used can serve to effectively identify higher bleeding risk in elderly subjects. Purpose The aim of this study was to identify predictors of bleeding in a cohort of elderly people affected by NVAF treated with DOAC, and to evaluate the accuracy of risk scores for bleeding used at present. Methods Data on outpatients aged ≥75 years, naïve for DOAC therapy, who started therapy with Dabigatran, Rivaroxaban, Apixaban or Edoxaban for the prevention of thromboembolism during FANV were analyzed. HASBLED, ATRIA, OBRI and ORBIT scores were calculated for each patient. Patients had follow-up for 12 months during which deaths, therapy discontinuation and adverse events such as thromboembolism and bleeding were reported. Potential predictors of bleeding and the predictive value of each bleeding score were tested using univariate Cox regression; testing accuracy was evaluated using ROC curves. Results A total of 291 patients (52.9% female, mean age 82.85±5.18 years) had a median follow-up time of 11 (10–12) months. The incidence rate of major bleeding was 4.7 per 100 patient-years, the rate of intracranial bleeding was 0.4 per 100 patient-years. Patients who had major bleeding were more often affected by heart failure (63.6% vs 25%; p=0.009) and thrombocytopenia (36.4% vs 7.4%; p=0,009). However in the multivariate analysis only heart failure remained statistically associated with major bleeding (HR 3.83, 95% CI 1.06–13.85; p=0.041). None of tested bleeding risk scores was able to predict major bleeding in our cohort. HASBLED and ORBIT scores were able to predict major and non-major clinically relevant bleeding (HR 1.32; 95% CI 1.01–1.71; p=0.042 and HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.00- 1.43; p=0.046); only the ORBIT score was found to be statistically significant, but with weak discriminatory power at ROC curves (AUC 0.59; 95% CI 0.51–0.68; p=0.041). Conclusions In our cohort of elderly patients aged 75 or older, anticoagulated for NVAF, heart failure history was the only effective predictor of major bleeding risk during DOAC treatment. None of the bleeding risk scores used currently have demonstrated a good discriminatory power in our cohort. As predictive factors of bleedings in DOAC-treated patients may not be the same as those for VKA-treated patients and those in elderly may also be differ in younger people, it calls for more investigation on the topic.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Fauchier ◽  
A Bisson ◽  
A Bodin ◽  
N Clementy ◽  
B Pierre ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) is a tool to measure comorbid disease status and a strong estimator of mortality. The quantifiable frailty phenotype has also been validated as predictive of mortality and disability. Claims data can be used to classify individuals as frail and non-frail using the Claims-based Frailty Index (CFI). We evaluated whether these tools may help to predict the risk of bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods All patients with AF seen in an academic institution were identified and followed up for mortality, stroke and bleeding events. HAS-BLED, HEMORR2HAGES, ATRIA and ORBIT scores, CCI and CFI were calculated for each patient. Hazard ratios were calculated and predictive abilities of the scores were compared using the c-statistic in the whole population and then separately in elderly patients (>75 yo). Results Among 8962 patients with AF, 274 major bleeding events were recorded during a follow-up of 874±1054 days. Bleeding occurred more commonly in patients with higher bleeding risk scores, CCI and CFI. The 4 bleeding risk scores significantly had lower c-statistics than CCI and CFI for predicting major bleeding (table). Results were similar whether patients were treated with OAC or no OAC. In elderly patients, the c-statistics were all lower and were not significantly different for the 4 scores, CCI and CFI scores (0.594, 0,572, 0.595, 0.594, 0.616 and 0.591 for HAS-BLED, HEMORR2HAGES, ATRIA, ORBIT, CCI and CFI, respectively). Predictive values for major bleeding ROC Area 95% Conf. Interval P value vs CCI/CFI HASBLED 0.588 0.555–0.621 0.002/0.003 HEMORR2HAGES 0.564 0.531–0.598 <0.0001/<0.0001 ATRIA 0.559 0.522–0.595 <0.0001/<0.0001 ORBIT 0.577 0.542–0.612 0.0002/0.0003 Charlson, CCI 0.652 0.619–0.684 –/0.58 Frailty index, CFI 0.648 0.615–0.681 0.58/– Conclusion Comorbidities and frailty, respectively assessed with CCI and CFI, demonstrated statistically better performances in predicting major bleeding than the 4 established bleeding risk scores in AF, although all c-indexes were broadly similar. The 4 bleeding risk scores, CCI and CFI showed lower performance in predicting bleeding within elderly patients in whom they all performed equally to predict bleeding events. Given their simplicity and similar performances, the user-friendly bleeding risk scores remain attractive tools for the estimation of bleeding risk in elderly patients with AF.


2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (05) ◽  
pp. 505-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farhan Shahid ◽  
Gregory Lip

AbstractAtrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke compared with the general population. AF-related stroke confers a higher mortality and morbidity risk, and thus, early detection and assessment for the initiation of effective stroke prevention with oral anticoagulation are crucial. Simple and practical risk assessment tools are essential to facilitate stroke and bleeding risk assessment in busy clinics and wards to aid decision making. At present, the CHA2DS2VASc score is recommended by guidelines as the most simple and practical method of assessing stroke risk in AF patients. Alongside this, the use of the HAS-BLED score aims to identify patients at high risk of bleeding for more regular review and follow-up, and draws attention to potentially reversible bleeding risk factors. The aim of this review article is to summarize the current risk scores available for both stroke and bleeding in AF patients, and the recommendations for their use.


Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001471
Author(s):  
Tymon Pol ◽  
Ziad Hijazi ◽  
Johan Lindbäck ◽  
John H Alexander ◽  
M Cecilia Bahit ◽  
...  

ObjectivesGrowth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a biomarker independently associated with bleeding and death in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). GDF-15 is also used as one component in the more precise biomarker-based ABC (age, biomarkers, clinical history)-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores. Data from large trials indicate a geographic variability in regard to overall outcomes, including bleeding and mortality risk. Our aim was to assess the consistency of the association between GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death score, with major bleeding and death, across world geographic regions.MethodsData were available from 14 767 patients with AF from the Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) trial and 8651 patients with AF from the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY) trial in this cohort study. GDF-15 was analysed from plasma samples obtained at randomisation. The geographical consistency of the associations between outcomes and GDF-15, ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death scores were assessed by Cox-regression models including interactions with predefined geographical region.ResultsGDF-15 and the ABC-AF-bleeding score were associated with major bleeding in both trials across regions (p<0.0001). Similarly, GDF-15 and the ABC-AF-death score were associated with all-cause mortality in both trials across regions (p<0.0001). Overall, the association between GDF-15, the ABC-AF-bleeding score and ABC-AF-death risk score with major bleeding and death was consistent across regions in both ARISTOTLE and the RE-LY trial cohorts. The ABC-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores were consistent regarding discriminative ability when comparing geographic regions in both trial cohorts. The C-indices ranged from 0.649 to 0.760 for the ABC-AF-bleeding and from 0.677 to 0.806 for the ABC-AF-death score by different geographic regions.ConclusionsIn patients with AF on anticoagulation, GDF-15 and the biomarker-based ABC-AF-bleeding and ABC-AF-death risk scores are consistently associated with respectively increased risk of major bleeding and death and have similar prognostic value across world geographic regions.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov Registry NCT00412984 and NCT00262600.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 824-836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Skevos Sideris ◽  
Stefanos Archontakis ◽  
George Latsios ◽  
George Lazaros ◽  
Konstantinos Toutouzas ◽  
...  

Background: Prevention of thromboembolic disease, mainly stroke, with oral anticoagulants remains a major therapeutic goal in patients with atrial fibrillation. Unfortunately, despite the high efficacy, anticoagulant therapy is associated with a significant risk of, frequently catastrophic, and hemorrhagic complications. Among different clinical and laboratory parameters related to an increased risk of bleeding, several biological markers have been recognized and various risk scores for bleeding have been developed. Objectives/Methods: The aim of the present study is to review current evidence regarding the different biomarkers associated with raised bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation. Results: Data originating from large cohorts or the recent large-scale trials of atrial fibrillation have linked numerous individual biomarkers to an increased bleeding risk. Such a relation was revealed for markers of cardiac physiology, such as troponin, BNP and NT-proBNP, markers of renal function, such as GFR and Cystatin or hepatic function, markers involving the system of coagulation, such as D-dimer and Von Willebrand factor, hematologic markers, such as low haemoglobin or low platelets, inflammatory markers, such as interleukin-6, other factors such as GDF-15 and vitamin-E and finally genetic polymorphisms. Many such biomarkers are incorporated in the bleeding risk schemata developed for the prediction of the hemorrhagic risk. Conclusions: Biomarkers were introduced in clinical practice in order to better estimate the potential risk of haemorrhage in these patients and increase the prognostic impact of clinical risk scores. In the last years this concept is gaining significant importance.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K Tsuchida ◽  
K Tanaka ◽  
K Nakano ◽  
R Akagawa ◽  
N Oyanagi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background/Introduction In patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with stent implantation, oral anticoagulation (OAC) plus dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) increases the risk of bleeding. The PRECISE-DAPT (P-DAPT) and DAPT scores were created to predict increased bleeding versus ischemic risk in patients undergoing DAPT. However, not much information is available on predicting bleeding risk associated with OAC concomitant with DAPT in patients with AF treated with coronary stents. Physical frailty or sarcopenia is considered an emerging predictor for bleeding in AF patients. Purpose To investigate the relationship between skeletal muscle mass and major bleeding risk in AF patients undergoing PCI and subsequent OAC and DAPT. Methods A total of 1,234 consecutive patients after PCI using newer-generation drug eluting stents were evaluated. An anti-thrombotic regimen without OAC was given to 1,077 patients, whereas OAC was required in 157 patients (12.7%) including AF (n = 96). The P-DAPT, DAPT, and HAS-BLED scores were calculated for each of the patients. Any out-of-hospital major bleeding events were identified based on BARC criteria during a median follow-up of 2.9 years. The fat-free mass index (FFMI; kg/m2) was calculated to evaluate skeletal muscle mass as follows: (7.38 + 0.02908 × urinary creatinine (mg/day)) / (height squared (m2)). A Cox proportional hazards model was used to test the significance of the FFMI and these risk scores as predictors of major bleeding, defined as BARC 3 or 5 events in AF patients. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses were used to examine the predictive ability of the FFMI and these scores to identify patients with major bleeding events. Results Major bleeding events were observed in 9 (9.3%) patients. Major bleeding was associated with a lower FFMI (hazard ratio [HR] 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.36-0.79; p = 0.002), and higher P-DAPT score (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.11; p = 0.003), but not with the DAPT (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.45-1.12; p = 0.147) and the HAS-BLED score (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.48-2.09; p = 0.990). In the non-OAC cohort, major bleeding was related to a higher P-DAPT score (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.07; p &lt; 0.0001), but the FFMI (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.73-1.09; p = 0.265) and the DAPT score were not correlated. C-statistics for major bleeding events were 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71-0.93, p = 0.001) for the FFMI and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.68-0.90, p = 0.004) for the P-DAPT score. Conclusions Assessment of the FFMI for screening sarcopenia is useful to predict major bleedings specifically in patients with AF undergoing coronary stenting. Both the FFMI and P-DAPT could successfully predict major bleedings in AF patients after PCI. Whether novel bleeding risk scores combined with measuring body composition adequately identify high risk patients needs to be validated.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document