scholarly journals The impact of smoking on mortality in the face of population ageing: the example of Germany

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
U Mons
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Policy Action ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
Forward Projection ◽  
Smoking Trends ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Despite weak tobacco control, smoking in Germany has steadily declined over the last 25 years. As policymakers often expect that this trend will also reflect in a declining associated public health burden, I sought to quantify trends in smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) and to explore the impact of population ageing. Methods Smoking and mortality statistics from 1992 to 2018 were obtained from the German Statistical Office, from which SAM was calculated separately for each cause of death causally associated with smoking using Levin's formula for population-attributable fractions. The impact of population ageing was explored by comparing crude and age-standardized SAM, respectively. To estimate the impact of population ageing on future SAM, a forward projection until 2040 was modelled assuming continuation of smoking trends and constant mortality rates. Results About 126.900 deaths were attributable to smoking in Germany in 2018. Since 1992, total SAM declined only slightly, while stronger decreases were seen in age-adjusted SAM. Differences between crude and age-standardized SAM seem to be particularly striking in men. The forward projection of SAM suggests that recent increases in smoking in the middle aged as well as population ageing dynamics will lead to further steady increases within the next two decades in both sexes to about 138.250. Conclusions Results indicate that past decreases in SAM due to declines in smoking were largely compensated by population ageing. In the next two decades, current smoking trends and population ageing will lead to a steady increase in SAM. Only by taking determined immediate policy action could significant inroads into reducing the smoking-associated disease burden be achieved. Also, given still significant smoking rates in middle and old age, there is tremendous potential to curb the associated public health burden by intensifying cessation programs. Key messages Contrary to common expectations among policymakers, the smoking-attributable public health burden will strongly increase in the next decades in Germany. Determined immediate policy action is required to halt or attenuate these trends.

scholarly journals The impact of smoking on deaths and disease in the face of population ageing: the example of Germany

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
U Mons
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Cancer Site ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
Forward Projection ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Despite weak tobacco control, smoking in Germany has steadily declined over the last 25 years. As policymakers expect that this trend will reflect in a declining associated public health burden, I sought to quantify trends in smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) and smoking-attributable cancer incidence (SACI) and to explore the impact of population ageing. Methods Smoking and mortality statistics from 1992 to 2017 were obtained from the German Statistical Office, from which SAM was calculated separately for each cause of death causally associated with smoking. Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2016 was obtained from the German Cancer Registry, and SACI was calculated separately for each cancer site causally associated with smoking. The impact of population ageing was explored by comparing crude and age-standardized SAM and SACI, respectively. To estimate the impact of population ageing on future SAM and SACI, a forward projection until 2035 was modelled. Results Preliminary results suggest that total SAM and SACI only slightly declined over time, while stronger decreases were seen in age-adjusted SAM and SACI. Differences between crude and age-standardized SAM and SACI seem to be particularly striking in men. The forward projection of SAM and SACI suggests that population ageing will lead to further steady increases within the next two decades in both sexes. Conclusions Results indicate that past decreases in SAM and SACI due to declines in smoking were largely compensated by population ageing. In the next two decades, population ageing will lead to a steady increase in SAM and SACI. Only by taking determined immediate action with a comprehensive set of evidence-based tobacco control polices could significant inroads into reducing the smoking-associated disease burden be achieved. Also, given still significant smoking rates in middle and old age, there is tremendous potential to curb the associated public health burden by intensifying cessation programs. Key messages Contrary to common expectations among policymakers, the smoking-attributable public health burden will strongly increase in the next decades. Determined immediate policy action is required to halt or attenuate these trends.

scholarly journals Assessing impact of Omicron on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and public health burden

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Epke A. Le Rutte ◽  
Andrew J. Shattock ◽  
Nakul Chitnis ◽  
Sherrie L. Kelly ◽  
Melissa A Penny
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Immune Evasion ◽  
Health Benefit ◽  
Critical Time ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Novel Treatments ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
The Impact

SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron (B.1.1.529) was classified as a variant of concern (VOC) on November 26, 2021. The infectivity, severity, and immune evasion properties of Omicron relative to the Delta variant will determine 1) the probability of dominant future transmission, and 2) the impact on disease burden. Here we apply an individual-based transmission model to identify thresholds for Omicrons potential dominance, impact on health, and risk to health systems; and identify for which combinations of viral properties, current interventions would be sufficient to control transmission. We show that, with first-generation SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and limited physical distancing in place, the threshold for Omicrons future dominance will primarily be driven by its degree of infectivity. However, Omicrons potential dominance may not necessarily lead to increased public health burden. Expanded vaccination that includes a third-dose for adults and child vaccination strategies is projected to have the biggest public health benefit for a highly infective, highly severe variant with low immune evasion capacity. However, a highly immune evading variant that becomes dominant will likely require alternative measures for control, such as strengthened physical distancing measures, novel treatments, and second-generation vaccines. These findings provide quantitative guidance to decision-makers at a critical time while Omicron properties are being assessed. We emphasize the importance of both genomic and population epidemiological surveillance.

Detection of Flaviviral-Like DNA Sequences in Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Collected From Argentina

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melisa B Bonica ◽  
Dario E Balcazar ◽  
Ailen Chuchuy ◽  
Jorge A Barneche ◽  
Carolina Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Aedes Aegypti ◽  
Dna Sequences ◽  
Immature Stages ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
The Past ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
The World ◽  
Aegypti Genome ◽  
Dengue Epidemics

Abstract Diseases caused by flaviviruses are a major public health burden across the world. In the past decades, South America has suffered dengue epidemics, the re-emergence of yellow fever and St. Louis encephalitis viruses, and the introduction of West Nile and Zika viruses. Many insect-specific flaviviruses (ISFs) that cannot replicate in vertebrate cells have recently been described. In this study, we analyzed field-collected mosquito samples from six different ecoregions of Argentina to detect flaviviruses. We did not find any RNA belonging to pathogenic flaviviruses or ISFs in adults or immature stages. However, flaviviral-like DNA similar to flavivirus NS5 region was detected in 83–100% of Aedes aegypti (L.). Despite being previously described as an ancient element in the Ae. aegypti genome, the flaviviral-like DNA sequence was not detected in all Ae. aegypti samples and sequences obtained did not form a monophyletic group, possibly reflecting the genetic diversity of mosquito populations in Argentina.

Tuberculosis and notifiable skin diseases amongst a representative cohort of refugees in Germany (2014–16)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick D Dissmann ◽  
Felix Koehring ◽  
Florian Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Skin Diseases ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Head Lice ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
Representative Cohort ◽  
Screening Result

Abstract Until now, systematic surveillance for infectious diseases in refugees is still missing. For that reason, this study aims at illustrating the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and notifiable skin diseases in a representative cohort of refugees in Lippe, a district of the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. We collected data on notifiable communicable diseases (TB, scabies, and head lice) from refugees (n = 8946) based on a medical screening after their arrival from October 2014 until May 2016. Data were analysed using descriptive and bivariate methods. Overall, we found 63 of 8764 screened refugees to have an abnormal TB screening result (0.72%). Of 8946 screened refugees, only 51 individuals were found to have scabies (0.57%) and a further 49 were tested positive for head lice (0.55%). The absolute number of TB cases indicate only a moderate public health burden. However, communicable skin diseases can become a problem in crowded holding camps, where they can cause local outbreaks.

scholarly journals COVID-19-related anxiety disorder in Iraq during the pandemic: an online cross-sectional study

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Kazim Karim ◽  
Perjan Hashim Taha ◽  
Nazar Mohammad Mohammad Amin ◽  
Habeeb Shuhaib Ahmed ◽  
Miami Kadhim Yousif ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Anxiety Disorder ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Health Anxiety ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Academic Degree ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Health Burden

Abstract Background The COVID-19 outbreak is an unprecedented global public health burden, which popped up in China in late 2019 to early 2020 and distributed worldwide rapidly. Indeed, this pandemic transmission has raised global physical and mental health concerns. Mental health issues that concur with this public health emergency may pose anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder. In Iraq, there are no registered known data on the psychological consequence of the public during the communicable disease outbreak. The ongoing study aims to address the paucity of these data as an appraisal of the mental health burden represented by anxiety disorder related to the global COVID-19 era. Results Among the 1591 Iraqi respondents, 788 (49.5%) accounted for having health anxiety over the current home restriction situation. Younger ages experienced more COVID-19-related health anxiety compared to older ages. Females reported higher health anxiety compared to males (57.7% vs 42.3%). The health care professionals reported 20.9% health anxiety. The Iraqi southern population displayed more health anxiety compared to the northern and middle portions. This work showed about half of the respondents were spending over 60 min focusing on news of COVID-19. We found that 80 to 90% carrying out preventive efforts and home quarantine against COVID-19 infection. Interestingly, participants experienced fear from the risk of COVID-19 infection, whether more or equal to a level of war scare, in 70.1% of the sample. Conclusions In Iraq, during the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly half of the respondents have health anxiety. Southern Iraqi cities displayed higher rates of anxiety. Also, being female, younger ages, holding an academic degree, or being a college student are associated with more prominent degrees of anxiety. Furtherly, it is important to adopt strategies for public health education and prevention and alerting future governmental responses focusing on psychological state impact among the general population.

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