The Effect of China’s Compulsory Education Reforms on Physiological Health in Adulthood: A Natural Experiment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Ye ◽  
Dawei Zhu ◽  
Ruoxi Ding ◽  
Ping He
Keyword(s):  
Allostatic Load ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Compulsory Education ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
Education Reforms ◽  
Socioeconomic Environment ◽  
Lower Education

Abstract Lower education is related to higher biological risks for physiological health, but it remains unclear whether the risks can be reduced through policies aimed at increasing years of education. We utilized China’s compulsory education reforms as a unique natural experiment, which stipulates that primary and lower secondary education is mandatory and free for all school-age children. Using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), we assessed the effect of the reform eligibility on biomarkers. The reforms resulted in an increase in years of education for those from communities with the middle 1/3 per capita income (PCI) (β = 2.44, 95% CI = 0.23 – 4.64). Reform eligibility had no impact on allostatic risks for the total sample (β = 0.065, 95% CI = -0.70 – 0.83) and for those from communities with the lowest (β = 0.35, 95% CI = -0.77 – 1.47) or highest third of PCI (β = 0.68, 95% CI = -0.64 – 2.00), while it reduced the metabolic risk (β = -0.14, 95% CI = -0.26 – -0.015) and total allostatic load (β = -1.58, 95% CI = -3.00 – -0.16) among those from communities with the middle third PCI. The results were confirmed by sensitivity analyses of different placebo cutoff points and bandwidths. The reforms led to better physiological health to some extent, but the effect only manifested in people from communities with a moderate community PCI, and had little impact on affluent or disadvantaged groups. Our findings stressed that the institutional context and respondents’ socioeconomic environment must be taken into account when assessing the health impact of China’s compulsory education reforms.

Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study

2021 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2021-056604
Author(s):  
David T Levy ◽  
Rafael Meza ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Yameng Li ◽  
Christopher Cadham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Smoking Initiation ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Public Health Impact ◽  
Menthol Cigarette ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Life Years Lost

IntroductionThe US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs).MethodsAfter calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060.ResultsAs a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications.Conclusions and relevanceOur findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.

scholarly journals The Public Health Impact of Delaying a Second Dose of the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Romero-Brufau ◽  
Ayush Chopra ◽  
Alex J Ryu ◽  
Esma Gel ◽  
Ramesh Raskar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Cumulative Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The Public

AbstractObjectivesTo estimate population health outcomes under delayedsecond dose versus standard schedule SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination.DesignAgent-based modeling on a simulated population of 100,000 based on a real-world US county. The simulation runs were replicated 10 times. To test the robustness of these findings, simulations were performed under different estimates for single-dose efficacy and vaccine administration rates, and under the possibility that a vaccine prevents only symptoms but not asymptomatic spread.Settingpopulation level simulation.Participants100,000 agents are included in the simulation, with a representative distribution of demographics and occupations. Networks of contacts are established to simulate potentially infectious interactions though occupation, household, and random interactionsInterventionswe simulate standard Covid-19 vaccination, versus delayed-second-dose vaccination prioritizing first dose. Sensitivity analyses include first-dose vaccine efficacy of 70%, 80% and 90% after day 12 post-vaccination; vaccination rate of 0.1%, 0.3%, and 1% of population per day; assuming the vaccine prevents only symptoms but not asymptomatic spread; and an alternative vaccination strategy that implements delayed-second-dose only for those under 65 years of age.Main outcome measurescumulative Covid-19 mortality over 180 days, cumulative infections and hospitalizations.ResultsOver all simulation replications, the median cumulative mortality per 100,000 for standard versus delayed second dose was 226 vs 179; 233 vs 207; and 235 vs 236; for 90%, 80% and 70% first-dose efficacy, respectively. The delayed-second-dose strategy was optimal for vaccine efficacies at or above 80%, and vaccination rates at or below 0.3% population per day, both under sterilizing and non-sterilizing vaccine assumptions, resulting in absolute cumulative mortality reductions between 26 and 47 per 100,000. The delayed-second-dose for those under 65 performed consistently well under all vaccination rates tested.ConclusionsA delayed-second-dose vaccination strategy, at least for those under 65, could result in reduced cumulative mortality under certain conditions.

scholarly journals WAJIB BELAJAR (WAJAR) SEMBILAN TAHUN DALAM PERSPEKTIF PENINGKATAN MUTU PENDIDIKAN DASAR

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (VIII) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Herwanto Herwanto
Keyword(s):  
Education Program ◽  
Basic Education ◽  
Compulsory Education ◽  
Education Quality ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
Quality Of Education ◽  
Education For All ◽  
School Age ◽  
National Education

Education for all has been stipulated in the Preamble of 1945 Constitution of Republic of Indonesia. As from the proclamation of Independence Day, the Indonesian government has been developing national education to give the Indonesians equal and broad opportunity to have access for education. This article discusses the implementation of nine years’ compulsory education program to provide the citizens with equal access for education and simultanously to improve basic education quality. The discussion is focused in planning, implementation, and outcomes of the program, as it is assumed that the three aspects are inter-related each others in achieving the target. The discussion concludes, the nine years’ compulsory education program in Indonesia is implemented through improving the opportunity to have basic education for all school age children and simultaneously to accelerate the quality of education. However, to reach the target of quality some recommendations are provided.

Estimating the Public Health Impact from Introducing Tobacco-Free Nicotine Pouches Into the US

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter N Lee ◽  
John S Fry ◽  
Tryggve Ljung
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Status ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Initiation Rate ◽  
Individual Parameter ◽  
Product Use ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Product

Abstract BackgroundFor smokers not intending to quit, switching to a reduced-risk nicotine product should be healthier than continuing smoking. We estimate the health impact, over the period 2000-2050, of introducing into the US the nicotine pouch ZYN. ZYN’s toxicant profile and method of use is like that for Swedish snus, a product with known health effects much less than smoking. MethodsOur modelling approach is similar to others developed for estimating potential effects of new tobacco products. It starts with a simulated cohort of 100,000 individuals in the year 2000 subdivided by age, sex, and smoking status (including years since quitting). They are followed annually accounting for births, net immigrations, deaths and product use changes, with follow-up carried out in the Base Case (ZYN not introduced) and Modified Case (ZYN introduced). Using informed assumptions about initiation, quitting and switching rates, distributions of the population over time are then constructed for each Case, which are used to estimate product-related mortality based on assumptions about the relative risk according to product use. ResultsWhereas in both Base and Modified Cases, the prevalence of any current product use is predicted to decline from about 22% to 10% during follow-up, in the Modified Case about 25% of current users use ZYN by 2050, about a quarter being dual users and the rest ZYN-only users. Over the 50 years, deaths at ages 35-84 from product use among the 100,000 are estimated as 249 less in the Modified than the Base Case, equivalent to about 700,000 less deaths in the whole US. Sensitivity analyses varying individual parameter values confirm the benefits of switching to ZYN, which increase as either the switching rate to ZYN increases or the initiation rate of ZYN relative to smoking increases. Even assuming the reduction in excess mortality risk using ZYN use is 20% of that from smoking rather than the 3.5% assumed in the main analyses, the reduction in product-related deaths would still be 213, or about 600,000 in the US. ConclusionsAlthough such model-based estimates are subject to uncertainties, the results suggest that introducing ZYN could substantially reduce smoking-attributable deaths.

scholarly journals Parental Education and Child Health: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Taiwan

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shin-Yi Chou ◽  
Jin-Tan Liu ◽  
Michael Grossman ◽  
Ted Joyce
Keyword(s):  
Junior High School ◽  
Parental Education ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Infant Health ◽  
Junior High ◽  
Compulsory Education ◽  
Differential Rate ◽  
Infant Birth Outcomes ◽  
Infant Birth ◽  
And Child Health

In 1968, the Taiwanese government extended compulsory education from 6 to 9 years and opened over 150 new junior high schools at a differential rate among regions. Within each region, we exploit variations across cohorts in new junior high school openings to construct an instrument for schooling, and employ it to estimate the causal effects of mother's or father's schooling on infant birth outcomes in the years 1978–1999. Parents' schooling does cause favorable infant health outcomes. The increase in schooling associated with the reform saved almost 1 infant life in 1,000 live births. (JEL I12, I21, J12, J13, R23)

Are children able to distinguish among the concepts of aloneness, loneliness, and solitude?

2004 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 435-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelia Galanaki
Keyword(s):  
Total Sample ◽  
Sixth Graders ◽  
Second Graders ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
School Age Children ◽  
School Age ◽  
Individual Interviews ◽  
Age And Gender Differences ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Human Desire

School-age children’s ability to distinguish among the concepts of aloneness, loneliness, and solitude was the focus of this study. This ability has been largely neglected by researchers. Also, the relation of this ability with self-reported loneliness was examined. Individual interviews were conducted with 180 second, fourth, and sixth graders from Athens, Greece. Their responses were qualitatively and quantitatively analysed. Results showed that school-age children were able to perceive the differences between aloneness and loneliness, although they frequently associated being alone with feeling lonely. Nearly half of them perceived the motivational dimension, which distinguishes voluntary from involuntary aloneness. The ability to recognise the existence of beneficial aloneness, that is, solitude, was extremely limited among second graders, but increased dramatically up to the beginning of adolescence. About two thirds of the total sample acknowledged the human desire to be alone. Girls were significantly more able than boys to perceive the differences between aloneness and loneliness, the motivational dimension, and the desire to be alone. More than two-thirds of the total sample had experienced loneliness, but this experience appeared to be unrelated to their understanding of the various aloneness concepts. Age and gender differences, as well as children’s various justifications of their responses, are discussed in the framework of the existing theoretical and research literature on children’s aloneness, loneliness, and solitude.

Ranking the Disease Burden of 14 Pathogens in Food Sources in the United States Using Attribution Data from Outbreak Investigations and Expert Elicitation†

2012 ◽  
Vol 75 (7) ◽  
pp. 1278-1291 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL B. BATZ ◽  
SANDRA HOFFMANN ◽  
J. GLENN MORRIS
Keyword(s):  
Cost Of Illness ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Outbreak Investigations

Understanding the relative public health impact of major microbiological hazards across the food supply is critical for a risk-based national food safety system. This study was conducted to estimate the U.S. health burden of 14 major pathogens in 12 broad categories of food and to then rank the resulting 168 pathogen-food combinations. These pathogens examined were Campylobacter, Clostridium perfringens, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, norovirus, Salmonella enterica, Toxoplasma gondii, and all other FoodNet pathogens. The health burden associated with each pathogen was measured using new estimates of the cost of illness and loss of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from acute and chronic illness and mortality. A new method for attributing illness to foods was developed that relies on both outbreak data and expert elicitation. This method assumes that empirical data are generally preferable to expert judgment; thus, outbreak data were used for attribution except where evidence suggests that these data are considered not representative of food attribution. Based on evaluation of outbreak data, expert elicitation, and published scientific literature, outbreak-based attribution estimates for Campylobacter, Toxoplasma, Cryptosporidium, and Yersinia were determined not representative; therefore, expert-based attribution were included for these four pathogens. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of attribution data assumptions on rankings. Disease burden was concentrated among a relatively small number of pathogen-food combinations. The top 10 pairs were responsible for losses of over $8 billion and 36,000 QALYs, or more than 50% of the total across all pairs. Across all 14 pathogens, poultry, pork, produce, and complex foods were responsible for nearly 60% of the total cost of illness and loss of QALYs.

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