Chance of live birth: a nationwide, registry-based cohort study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Astrid M Kolte ◽  
David Westergaard ◽  
Øjvind Lidegaard ◽  
Søren Brunak ◽  
Henriette Svarre Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Live Birth ◽  
Pregnancy Outcomes ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Obstetric Complications ◽  
Model Discrimination ◽  
Still Birth ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Pregnancy History ◽  
Ectopic Pregnancies

Abstract STUDY QUESTION Does the sequence of prior pregnancy events (pregnancy losses, live births, ectopic pregnancies, molar pregnancy and still birth), obstetric complications and maternal age affect chance of live birth in the next pregnancy and are prior events predictive for the outcome? SUMMARY ANSWER The sequence of pregnancy outcomes is significantly associated with chance of live birth; however, pregnancy history and age are insufficient to predict the outcome of an individual woman’s next pregnancy. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Adverse pregnancy outcomes decrease the chance of live birth in the next pregnancy, whereas the impact of prior live births is less clear. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION Nationwide, registry-based cohort study of 1 285 230 women with a total of 2 722 441 pregnancies from 1977 to 2017. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS All women living in Denmark in the study period with at least one pregnancy in either the Danish Medical Birth Registry or the Danish National Patient Registry. Data were analysed using logistic regression with a robust covariance model to account for women with more than one pregnancy. Model discrimination and calibration were ascertained using 20% of the women in the cohort randomly selected as an internal validation set. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Obstetric complications, still birth, ectopic pregnancies and pregnancy losses had a negative effect on the chance of live birth in the next pregnancy. Consecutive, identical pregnancy outcomes (pregnancy losses, live births or ectopic pregnancies) immediately preceding the next pregnancy had a larger impact than the total number of any outcome. Model discrimination was modest (C-index = 0.60, positive predictive value = 0.45), but the models were well calibrated. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION While prior pregnancy outcomes and their sequence significantly influenced the chance of live birth, the discriminative abilities of the predictive models demonstrate clearly that pregnancy history and maternal age are insufficient to reliably predict the outcome of a given pregnancy. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Prior pregnancy history has a significant impact on the chance of live birth in the next pregnancy. However, the results emphasize that only taking age and number of losses into account does not predict if a pregnancy will end as a live birth or not. A better understanding of biological determinants for pregnancy outcomes is urgently needed. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The work was supported by the Novo Nordisk Foundation, Ole Kirk Foundation and Rigshospitalet’s Research Foundation. The authors have no financial relationships that could appear to have influenced the work. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A.

scholarly journals Advanced maternal age and adverse pregnancy outcomes: A cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
M. Guarga Montori ◽  
A. Álvarez Martínez ◽  
C. Luna Álvarez ◽  
N. Abadía Cuchí ◽  
P. Mateo Alcalá ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Pregnancy Outcomes ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Advanced Maternal Age ◽  
Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes ◽  
Adverse Pregnancy

scholarly journals Impact of Inherited Bleeding Disorders on Maternal Bleeding and Other Pregnancy Outcomes: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 493-493
Author(s):  
Arafat Ul Alam ◽  
Cynthia M. Wu ◽  
Venu Jain ◽  
Haowei Linda Sun
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Pregnancy Outcomes ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Diagnostic Code ◽  
Bleeding Disorders ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Significant Change

Abstract Introduction: Increasing rate of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) has been observed between 2003 and 2010 in Canada. Given that bleeding disorders contribute to the risk of PPH, it is important to identify the current trend in PPH in the last decade and assess the impact of inherited bleeding disorders on maternal bleeding and other pregnancy outcomes. Methods: This is a retrospective population-based cohort study using the Alberta Pregnancy Birth Cohort. The creation of this cohort using multiple linked administrative databases has been previously described. Number of deliveries per year in Alberta, Canada was determined by Vital Statistics birth registry from 2010 to 2018 and was linked with Discharge Abstract Database (DAD) to identify cases of PPH and other pregnancy outcomes. PPH was defined as a blood loss of ≥500 ml following vaginal delivery or ≥1000 ml following Caesarean section, or as a diagnosis noted by a health care provider. All diagnoses and procedures were identified by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes and Canadian Classification of Interventions (CCI) codes, respectively. Previous validation study of diagnostic code for PPH in DAD showed high sensitivity and specificity. Inherited bleeding disorders including von Willebrand disease, hemophilia carriers, platelet function disorder, and hereditary deficiencies of other coagulation factors were identified by presence of at least two ICD codes. All analyses were restricted to hospitalized deliveries with live births. Temporal trend of PPH rate was assessed by Mann-Kendall test. Univariate logistic regression analyses were used to compute odds of pregnancy outcomes among women with inherited bleeding disorders compared with those without at their index pregnancies during the study period. Results: Between 2010 to 2018, 311,657 women had a total of 452,846 pregnancies with live births. The mean age of the study cohort was 29 years. Most (90%) of them reached term pregnancies. The total number of PPH was 47,602 (10.5 per 100 deliveries). The rate of PPH did not have any significant change from 10.3 in 2010 (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.0-10.6) to 10.8 (95% CI 10.6 -11.1) in 2018 (P for trend =0.28) [Figure 1]. Among 311,657 women, 345 (0.1%) had a diagnosis of inherited bleeding disorders [Table 1]. Women with bleeding disorders were more likely to experience PPH (odds ratio [OR] 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.9), antepartum hemorrhage (OR 4.3; 95% CI 2.9-6.4) and had a 3-fold increased risk of undergoing hysterectomy (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.8-5.2). The bleeding cohort had 3.8 (95% CI: 2.4-6.0) times greater risk of being transfused with blood products. We observed a trend towards higher odds of caesarean delivery in women with bleeding disorders compared with those without (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.9-1.5), albeit not statistically significant. However, there was no significant difference in prolonged labor, obstetric hematoma, low birth weight baby and induced labour. Conclusion: Despite a rise in the rate of PPH between 2003-2010, we observed no significant change in the rate of PPH in Alberta between 2010-2018. Women with inherited bleeding disorders are at an increased risk of bleeding events during pregnancy and childbirth. Further investigation into quality of care among this patient population is ongoing to identify areas for improvement. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Wu: BMS-Pfizer: Honoraria, Research Funding; Leo Pharma: Honoraria; Pfizer: Honoraria; Servier: Honoraria; Bayer: Research Funding; Daiichi-Sankyo: Research Funding. Sun: Pfizer: Consultancy; Novo Nordisk: Consultancy; Bayer: Consultancy; Octapharma: Consultancy, Research Funding; Shire: Consultancy.

scholarly journals Sensitivity Analysis of the Quadratic Discriminant Function for Predicting Pregnancy Outcomes

2020 ◽  
pp. 60-69
Author(s):  
Killian Asampana Asosega ◽  
David Adedia ◽  
Atinuke O. Adebanji
Keyword(s):  
Birth Outcomes ◽  
Live Birth ◽  
Discriminant Function ◽  
Pregnancy Outcomes ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Gestational Period ◽  
Quadratic Discriminant Function

The prevalence rate of stillbirth is ten times higher in developing countries relative to developed countries with a 2016 rate of 18 percent in Ghana. This study employed the Quadratic Discriminant Function for discriminating and classifying of pregnancy outcomes based on some predictors. The study further examined the sensitivity of the Quadratic Discriminant Function in predicting pregnancy outcomes with variations in the training and test samples of deliveries recorded in a hospital in Accra, Ghana. The study considered the scenarios; 50:50, 60:40, 70:30 and 75:25 ratios of training sets to testing sets. Predictor variables on both maternal factors (maternal age, parity and gravida) and fetus variables (weight at birth and gestational period) were all statistically significant (P < .01) in discriminating between live birth and stillbirth. Results showed that maternal age had a negative effect on the live birth outcomes, while parity, gravida, gestational period and fetus weight recorded positive effects on live birth outcomes. The 75:25 ratio outperformed the other ratios in discriminating between live and stillbirth based on the Actual Error Rate of 7.28% compared to 7.81%, 12.14% and 13.79% for the 50:50, 70:30 and 60:40 ratios respectively whereas, the receiver operating characteristic curve shows the 70:30 (AUC= 0.9233) ratio outperformed the others. The study recommend the use of either the 70:30 or 75:25 training to test ratios for classification and discrimination related problems. Moreover, further research to establish the power of the respective training to test sample ratios with other statistical classification tools and more socio-economic variables can be considered.

scholarly journals Uterus Size May Affect Reproductive Outcome in Women with Adenomyosis After Gnrh- Agonist Pretreatment Undergoing Frozen Embryo Transfer Cycles: A Retrospective Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Xiong ◽  
Ruiyi Tang ◽  
Peng Wu ◽  
Zhengyi Sun ◽  
jingran zhen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Pregnancy Rate ◽  
Embryo Transfer ◽  
Live Birth ◽  
Gnrh Agonist ◽  
Retrospective Cohort Study ◽  
Pregnancy Outcomes ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Clinical Pregnancy ◽  
Frozen Embryo Transfer

Abstract Background: GnRH-agonist is used to treat adenomyosis, but its efficacy in adenomyosis patients with uterine enlargement undergoing frozen embryo transfer (FET) is unclear. Methods：The retrospective cohort study comprised 112 adenomyosis patients with uterine enlargement undergoing the first FET circle. A long-term GnRH-a pretreatment was administered to 112 patients with uterine enlargement. These patients were divided into two groups according to the therapeutic effect: patients with a normal-size uterus after GnRH-a treatment (GN group) and patients with an enlarged uterus after GnRH-a treatment (GL group). Results：Not all patients can shrink their uterus to a satisfactory level. After receiving GnRH-a pretreatment, the uterus returned to normal size in 77% of patients (GN group), and 23% of patients had a persistently enlarged uterus (GL group). The pregnancy rate, clinical pregnancy rate, ongoing pregnancy rate, and live birth rate were significantly higher in the GN group than in the GL group. Controlling for the confounding factors, normal uterus size (odds ratio [OR] 4.50; P=0.03) and low body mass index (OR 3.13; P=0.03) affected the odds of achieving live birth. The cut-off value selected on the ROC curve of uterus volume after GnRH-a treatment for detecting live birth was 144.7Conclusions：GnRH-a pretreatment was associated with the regression of adenomyosis lesions and improved clinical pregnancy outcomes in the adenomyosis patients with uterine enlargement whose lesion are GnRH-a susceptible on FET cycles. However, about a quarter of patients may not be less responsive to GnRH-a and have poorer pregnancy outcomes, especially in overweight women.

scholarly journals Pregnancy outcomes in women with Budd-Chiari syndrome or portal vein thrombosis - A multicentre retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanke Wiegers ◽  
Eva N. Hamulyák ◽  
Stefanie E. Damhuis ◽  
Jack R. Duuren ◽  
Sarwa Darwish Murad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Portal Vein ◽  
Portal Vein Thrombosis ◽  
Live Birth ◽  
Retrospective Cohort Study ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Budd Chiari Syndrome ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Vein Thrombosis ◽  
Chiari Syndrome

Objective: to evaluate current practice and outcomes of pregnancy in women previously diagnosed with Budd-Chiari syndrome and/or portal vein thrombosis, with and without concomitant portal hypertension. Design and setting: multicentre retrospective cohort study between 2008-2021 Population: Women who conceived in the predefined period after the diagnosis of Budd-Chiari syndrome and/or portal vein thrombosis Methods and main outcome measures: We collected data on diagnosis and clinical features. The primary outcomes were maternal mortality and live birth rate. Secondary outcomes included maternal, neonatal and obstetric complications. Results: Forty-five women (12 Budd-Chiari syndrome, 33 portal vein thrombosis; 76 pregnancies) were included. Underlying prothrombotic disorders were present in 23 of 45 women (51%). Thirty-eight women (84%) received low-molecular-weight heparin during pregnancy. Of 45 first pregnancies, 11 (24%) ended in pregnancy loss and 34 (76%) resulted in live birth of which 27 at term age (79% of live births and 60% of pregnancies). No maternal deaths were observed, one woman developed pulmonary embolism during pregnancy and two women (4%) had variceal bleeding requiring intervention. Conclusions: The high number of term live births (79%) and lower than expected risk of pregnancy-related maternal and neonatal morbidity in our cohort suggest that Budd-Chiari syndrome and/or portal vein thrombosis should not be considered as an absolute contra-indication for pregnancy. Individualized, nuanced counselling and a multidisciplinary pregnancy surveillance approach are essential in this patient population.

scholarly journals Pregnancy outcomes from the global pharmacovigilance database on interferon beta-1b exposure

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 175628642091031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Hellwig ◽  
Fernando Duarte Caron ◽  
Eva-Maria Wicklein ◽  
Aasia Bhatti ◽  
Alessandra Adamo
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Spontaneous Abortion ◽  
Birth Defects ◽  
Pregnancy Outcomes ◽  
Congenital Anomalies ◽  
Interferon Beta ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Congenital Birth Defects ◽  
Pharmacovigilance Database

Background: The goal of the present cohort study was to review outcomes of patients exposed to interferon beta-1b during pregnancy. Methods: Pregnancy cases with exposure to interferon beta-1b reported to Bayer’s pharmacovigilance (PV) database from worldwide sources from January 1995 through February 2018 were retrieved for evaluation. Only cases where pregnancy outcomes were unknown at the time of reporting (i.e. prospective cases) were included in the analysis of this retrospective cohort study. Results: As of February 2018, 2581 prospective pregnancies exposed to interferon beta-1b were retrieved from the database; 1348 pregnancies had documented outcomes. The majority of outcomes [1106 cases (82.0%)] were live births. Health status was known for 981 live births (no known health status for 125). Most of the prospective pregnancies with known outcomes corresponded to live births with no congenital anomalies [896 cases (91.3%)]. Spontaneous abortion occurred in 160 cases (11.9%). Congenital birth defects were observed in 14/981 live births with known health status [1.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78–2.38]. No consistent pattern in the type of birth defect was identified. Rates of both spontaneous abortion and birth defects were not higher than the general population. Conclusions: These PV data, the largest sample of interferon beta-1b-exposed patients reported to date, suggest no increase in risk of spontaneous abortion or congenital anomalies in women exposed during pregnancy.

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