Identification of hospitalized patients with community-acquired infection in whom treatment guidelines do not apply: a validated model

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 1047-1053
Author(s):  
Teresa Cardoso ◽  
Pedro Pereira Rodrigues ◽  
Cristina Nunes ◽  
Mónica Almeida ◽  
Joana Cancela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Functional Impairment ◽  
Antimicrobial Therapy ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Invasive Procedures ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Associate Risk ◽  
Community Acquired Infection

Abstract Objectives To develop and validate a clinical model to identify patients admitted to hospital with community-acquired infection (CAI) caused by pathogens resistant to antimicrobials recommended in current CAI treatment guidelines. Methods International prospective cohort study of consecutive patients admitted with bacterial infection. Logistic regression was used to associate risk factors with infection by a resistant organism. The final model was validated in an independent cohort. Results There were 527 patients in the derivation and 89 in the validation cohort. Independent risk factors identified were: atherosclerosis with functional impairment (Karnofsky index <70) [adjusted OR (aOR) (95% CI) = 2.19 (1.41–3.40)]; previous invasive procedures [adjusted OR (95% CI) = 1.98 (1.28–3.05)]; previous colonization with an MDR organism (MDRO) [aOR (95% CI) = 2.67 (1.48–4.81)]; and previous antimicrobial therapy [aOR (95% CI) = 2.81 (1.81–4.38)]. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AU-ROC) curve (95% CI) for the final model was 0.75 (0.70–0.79). For a predicted probability ≥22% the sensitivity of the model was 82%, with a negative predictive value of 85%. In the validation cohort the sensitivity of the model was 96%. Using this model, unnecessary broad-spectrum therapy would be recommended in 30% of cases whereas undertreatment would occur in only 6% of cases. Conclusions For patients hospitalized with CAI and none of the following risk factors: atherosclerosis with functional impairment; previous invasive procedures; antimicrobial therapy; or MDRO colonization, CAI guidelines can safely be applied. Whereas, for those with some of these risk factors, particularly if more than one, alternative antimicrobial regimens should be considered.

scholarly journals CAN WE Predict Risk Factors of Venous Thromboembolism Among Cancer Inpatients?

Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 5871-5871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiva Shrotriya ◽  
Prajwal Dhakal ◽  
Mukta Sharma ◽  
Joseph Gardiner ◽  
Anas Al-Janadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Renal Disease ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Renal Diseases ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Introduction Increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been noted among cancer patients as compared to non-cancer. VTE identified as leading cause of death among those with cancer. Cancer associated thrombosis caused increased hospitalizations, increased inpatient/outpatient medical and prescription claims, and increased total health care costs per patient. Our objective was to study demographic, clinical and laboratory risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) among hospitalized cancer patients and built a predictive model for VTE risk. Methods Ours was a retrospective cohort study focused on patients with VTE and cancer from January 2013 - September 2015. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis using stepwise approach was performed. A final predictive model was derived using receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves and concordance indices (c-statistics). Results N=3948 cancer inpatients were identified which was split into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort, each with 1957. Mean age 65.9±13.8 years; 52.6% were male; 85.6% Caucasian, 7% African Americans; 15.5% were obese; common comorbidities were hypertension (46%), pulmonary disease (34.5%), diabetes (22.9%), renal disease (20.9%) and congestive heart failure (10.4%). Overall, there was 152 (3.9%) events of VTE with 77 (3.9%) in derivation and 75 (3.8%) in validation cohort. On univariate analysis, comorbidities such as infection and renal diseases, laboratory findings such as low hemoglobin and low albumin was associated with high VTE risk. The derivation set had a c-statistic or AUC of 0.668 while the validation set had an AUC of 0.65. Conclusions Infection, renal disease (comorbidity) and low albumin levels were associated with a higher risk of VTE. Digestive and respiratory cancers were associated with higher VTE risk. We identified three clinical and laboratory variable that was associated with increased risk of VTE in addition to the cancer group. Future research could use this analysis as a basis for forming a risk score that could be used by clinicians to identify those cancer patients at risk for VTE. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

scholarly journals The 2CAN Score

Stroke ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (12) ◽  
pp. 2866-2871 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Chang ◽  
Ilana Ruff ◽  
Scott J. Mendelson ◽  
Fan Caprio ◽  
Deborah L. Bergman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Clinical Score ◽  
Final Diagnosis ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Academic Center

Background and Purpose— A quarter of acute strokes occur in patients hospitalized for another reason. A stroke recognition instrument may be useful for non-neurologists to discern strokes from mimics such as seizures or delirium. We aimed to derive and validate a clinical score to distinguish stroke from mimics among inhospital suspected strokes. Methods— We reviewed consecutive inpatient stroke alerts in a single academic center from January 9, 2014, to December 7, 2016. Data points, including demographics, stroke risk factors, stroke alert reason, postoperative status, neurological examination, vital signs and laboratory values, and final diagnosis, were collected. Using multivariate logistic regression, we derived a weighted scoring system in the first half of patients (derivation cohort) and validated it in the remaining half of patients (validation cohort) using receiver operating characteristics testing. Results— Among 330 subjects, 116 (35.2%) had confirmed stroke, 43 (13.0%) had a neurological mimic (eg, seizure), and 171 (51.8%) had a non-neurological mimic (eg, encephalopathy). Four risk factors independently predicted stroke: clinical deficit score (clinical deficit score 1: 1 point; clinical deficit score ≥2: 3 points), recent cardiac procedure (1 point), history of atrial fibrillation (1 point), and being a new patient (<24 hours from admission: 1 point). The score showed excellent discrimination in the first 165 patients (derivation cohort, area under the curve=0.93) and remaining 165 patients (validation cohort, area under the curve=0.88). A score of ≥2 had 92.2% sensitivity, 69.6% specificity, 62.2% positive predictive value, and 94.3% negative predictive value for identifying stroke. Conclusions— The 2CAN score for recognizing inpatient stroke performs well in a single-center study. A future prospective multicenter study would help validate this score.

scholarly journals Incidence and risk factors for healthcare utilisation among patients discharged on outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (6) ◽  
pp. 782-787 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. M. Jacobs ◽  
W-Y. Leung ◽  
D. Essi ◽  
W. Park ◽  
A. Shaver ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Antimicrobial Therapy ◽  
Healthcare Utilisation ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Outpatient Parenteral Antimicrobial Therapy ◽  
Sepsis Diagnosis ◽  
Multiple Risk Factors

AbstractOutpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) programmes facilitate hospital discharge, but patients remain at risk of complications and consequent healthcare utilisation (HCU). Here we elucidated the incidence of and risk factors associated with HCU in OPAT patients. This was a retrospective, single-centre, case–control study of adult patients discharged on OPAT. Cases (n = 63) and controls (n = 126) were patients that did or did not utilise the healthcare system within 60 days. Characteristics associated with HCU in bivariate analysis (P ≤ 0.2) were included in a multivariable logistic regression model. Variables were retained in the final model if they were independently (P < 0.05) associated with 60-day HCU. Among all study patients, the mean age was 55 ± 16, 65% were men, and wound infection (22%) and cellulitis (14%) were common diagnoses. The cumulative incidence of 60-day unplanned HCU was 27% with a disproportionately higher incidence in the first 30 days (21%). A statin at discharge (adjusted odds ratios (aOR) 0.23, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) 0.09–0.57), number of prior admissions in past 12 months (aOR 1.48, 95% CIs 1.05–2.10), and a sepsis diagnosis (aOR 4.62, 95% CIs 1.23–17.3) were independently associated with HCU. HCU was most commonly due to non-infection related complications (44%) and worsening primary infection (31%). There are multiple risk factors for HCU in OPAT patients, and formal OPAT clinics may help to risk stratify and target the highest risk groups.

scholarly journals Emergency Department Visits During Outpatient Parenteral Antimicrobial Therapy: A Cohort Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S333-S334
Author(s):  
So Lim Kim ◽  
Angela Everett ◽  
Susan J Rehm ◽  
Steven Gordon ◽  
Nabin Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Vascular Access ◽  
Antimicrobial Therapy ◽  
Cleveland Clinic ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Outpatient Parenteral Antimicrobial Therapy ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Access Complications

Abstract Background Outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) carries risk of vascular access complications, antimicrobial adverse effects, and worsening of infection. Both OPAT-related and unrelated events may lead to emergency department (ED) visits. The purpose of this study was to describe adverse events that result in ED visits and risk factors associated with ED visits during OPAT. Methods OPAT courses between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016 at Cleveland Clinic were identified from the institution’s OPAT registry. ED visits within 30 days of OPAT initiation were reviewed. Reasons and potential risk factors for ED visits were sought in the medical record. Results Among 11,440 OPAT courses during the study period, 603 (5%) were associated with 1 or more ED visits within 30 days of OPAT initiation. Mean patient age was 58 years and 57% were males. 379 ED visits (49%) were OPAT-related; the most common visit reason was vascular access complication, which occurred in 211 (56%) of OPAT-related ED visits. The most common vascular access complications were occlusion and dislodgement, which occurred in 99 and 34 patients (47% and 16% of vascular access complications, respectively). In a multivariable logistic regression model, at least one prior ED visit in the preceding year (prior ED visit) was most strongly associated with one or more ED visits during an OPAT course (OR 2.96, 95% CI 2.38 – 3.71, p-value &lt; 0.001). Other significant factors were younger age (p 0.01), female sex (p 0.01), home county residence (P &lt; 0.001), and having a PICC (p 0.05). 549 ED visits (71%) resulted in discharge from the ED within 24 hours, 18 (2%) left against medical advice, 46 (6%) were observed up to 24 hours, and 150 ED visits (20%) led to hospital admission. Prior ED visit was not associated with hospital admission among patients who visited the ED during OPAT. Conclusion OPAT-related ED visits are most often due to vascular access complications, especially line occlusions. Patients with a prior ED visit in the preceding year have a 3-fold higher odds of at least one ED visit during OPAT compared with patients without a prior ED visit. A strategy of managing occlusions at home and a focus on patients with prior ED visits could potentially prevent a substantial proportion of OPAT-related ED visits. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Nomogram based on homogeneous and heterogeneous associated factors for predicting distant metastases in patients with colorectal cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianwen Luo ◽  
Yutong Wang ◽  
Xuefeng Shan ◽  
Ye Bai ◽  
Chun Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Lung Metastases ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Distant Metastases ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Good Prediction Performance ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Associated Risk Factors

Abstract Background The identification of the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors for different types of metastases in colorectal cancer (CRC) may shed light on the aetiology and help individualize prophylactic treatment. The present study characterized the incidence differences and identified the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors associated with distant metastases in CRC. Methods CRC patients registered in the SEER database between 2010 and 2016 were included in this study. Logistic regression was used to analyse homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors for the occurrence of different types of metastases. Nomograms were constructed to predict the risk for developing metastases, and the performance was quantitatively assessed using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Results A total of 204,595 eligible CRC patients were included in our study, and 17.07% of them had distant metastases. The overall incidences of liver metastases, lung metastases, bone metastases, and brain metastases were 15.34%, 5.22%, 1.26%, and 0.29%, respectively. The incidence of distant metastases differed by age, gender, and the original CRC sites. Poorly differentiated grade, more lymphatic metastasis, higher carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and different metastatic organs were all positively associated with four patterns of metastases. In contrast, age, sex, race, insurance status, position, and T stage were heterogeneously associated with metastases. The calibration and ROC curves exhibited good performance for predicting distant metastases. Conclusions The incidence of distant metastases in CRC exhibited distinct differences, and the patients had homogeneous and heterogeneous associated risk factors. Although limited risk factors were included in the present study, the established nomogram showed good prediction performance.

scholarly journals A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dabing Huang ◽  
Yinan Shen ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Chengxiang Guo ◽  
Tingbo Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
Liver Transplantation ◽  
Adjuvant Therapy ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Multivariate Analyses ◽  
Meld Score ◽  
Blood Type ◽  
Intermediate Risk ◽  
Final Model ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Background Although criteria for liver transplantation, such as the Milan criteria and Hangzhou experiences, have become popular, criteria to guide adjuvant therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation are lacking. Methods We collected data from all consecutive patients from 2012 to 2019 at three liver transplantation centers in China retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to analyze preoperative parameters, such as demographic and clinical data. Using data obtained in our center, calibration curves and the concordance Harrell’s C-indices were used to establish the final model. The validation cohort comprised the patients from the other centers. Results Data from 233 patients were used to construct the nomogram. The validation cohort comprised 36 patients. Independent predictors of overall survival (OS) were identified as HbeAg positive (P = 0.044), blood-type compatibility unmatched (P = 0.034), liver transplantation criteria (P = 0.003), and high MELD score (P = 0.037). For the validation cohort, to predict OS, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.874. Based on the model, patients could be assigned into low-risk (≥ 50%), intermediate-risk (30–50%), and high-risk (≤ 30%) groups to guide adjuvant therapy after surgery and to facilitate personalized management. Conclusions The OS in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation could be accurately predicted using the developed nomogram.

scholarly journals Development and validation of two SCORE-based cardiovascular risk prediction models for Eastern Europe: a multicohort study

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (35) ◽  
pp. 3325-3333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taavi Tillmann ◽  
Kristi Läll ◽  
Oliver Dukes ◽  
Giovanni Veronesi ◽  
Hynek Pikhart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Risk Prediction Models ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Eastern European Countries

Abstract Aims Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models are used in Western European countries, but less so in Eastern European countries where rates of CVD can be two to four times higher. We recalibrated the SCORE prediction model for three Eastern European countries and evaluated the impact of adding seven behavioural and psychosocial risk factors to the model. Methods and results We developed and validated models using data from the prospective HAPIEE cohort study with 14 598 participants from Russia, Poland, and the Czech Republic (derivation cohort, median follow-up 7.2 years, 338 fatal CVD cases) and Estonian Biobank data with 4632 participants (validation cohort, median follow-up 8.3 years, 91 fatal CVD cases). The first model (recalibrated SCORE) used the same risk factors as in the SCORE model. The second model (HAPIEE SCORE) added education, employment, marital status, depression, body mass index, physical inactivity, and antihypertensive use. Discrimination of the original SCORE model (C-statistic 0.78 in the derivation and 0.83 in the validation cohorts) was improved in recalibrated SCORE (0.82 and 0.85) and HAPIEE SCORE (0.84 and 0.87) models. After dichotomizing risk at the clinically meaningful threshold of 5%, and when comparing the final HAPIEE SCORE model against the original SCORE model, the net reclassification improvement was 0.07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02–0.11] in the derivation cohort and 0.14 (95% CI 0.04–0.25) in the validation cohort. Conclusion Our recalibrated SCORE may be more appropriate than the conventional SCORE for some Eastern European populations. The addition of seven quick, non-invasive, and cheap predictors further improved prediction accuracy.

PREVALENCE OF LOW BACK PAIN AND ASSOCIATED RISK FACTORS AMONG HIGH SCHOOL TEACHERS IN KERMAN, IRAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghorbanali Mohammadi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High School ◽  
Low Back Pain ◽  
Back Pain ◽  
High School Teachers ◽  
Lower Back Pain ◽  
Low Back ◽  
School Teachers ◽  
Lower Back ◽  
Associate Risk

Low back pain (LBP) is one of the most frequent occupational health problems and accounts for a large number of losses in working days and disability for workers in modern industrialized countries. The aim of this paper was to investigate the prevalence of lower back problem and to associate risk factors among high school teachers. A cross-sectional study was conducted among high school teachers using self-administered questionnaires, which were distributed to randomly selected school teachers of 7 boys’ and 10 girls’ high schools across the city of Kerman and collected between October and November 2010. A total of 296 teachers returned completed questionnaires, yielding a response rate of 78.9%. The 12-month prevalence of LBP was 68.8%, which reporting with moderate disability. The results of multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that females [odds ratio (OR): 1.85, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.51–2.00] were positively correlated to LBP. Awkward arm posture (OR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.24–2.62) and awkward body posture (OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.87–1.49) were significantly associated with LBP. Psychosocial job demands and job dissatisfaction were also significantly associated with LBP. Smoking cigarette was three times more likely to develop lower back pain when compared with non-smokers. The prevalence of LBP was high among high school teachers. A wide variety of LBP risk factors were identified in the current study. The present study indicates that the high prevalence of lower back pain may lose difficulty to teachers in getting to work and “performing” the work required of them, resulting in work absenteeism, which may decrease work productivity.

scholarly journals Vascular lesions and functional limitations among older adults: does depression make a difference?

2014 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 1501-1509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Celia F. Hybels ◽  
Carl F. Pieper ◽  
Lawrence R. Landerman ◽  
Martha E. Payne ◽  
David C. Steffens
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
White Matter ◽  
Functional Impairment ◽  
Functional Limitations ◽  
Late Life ◽  
Cognitive Status ◽  
Cerebral White Matter ◽  
Late Life Depression ◽  
Increased Risk

ABSTRACTBackground:The association between disability and depression is complex, with disability well established as a correlate and consequence of late life depression. Studies in community samples report that greater volumes of cerebral white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) seen on brain imaging are linked with functional impairment. These vascular changes are also associated with late life depression, but it is not known if depression is a modifier in the relationship between cerebrovascular changes and functional impairment.Methods:The study sample was 237 older adults diagnosed with major depression and 140 never depressed comparison adults, with both groups assessed at study enrollment. The dependent variable was the number of limitations in basic activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental ADLs, and mobility tasks. The independent variable was the total volume of cerebral white matter lesions or hyperintensities assessed though magnetic resonance imaging.Results:In analyses controlling for age, sex, race, high blood pressure, and cognitive status, a greater volume of WMH was positively associated with the total number of functional limitations as well as the number of mobility limitations among those older adults with late life depression but not among those never depressed, suggesting the association between WMH volume and functional status differs in the presence of late life depression.Conclusions:These findings suggest older patients with both depression and vascular risk factors may be at an increased risk for functional decline, and may benefit from management of both cerebrovascular risk factors and depression.

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