scholarly journals Learning from Law Enforcement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Libor Dusek ◽  
Christian Traxler
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Intensive Margin ◽  
Compliance Behavior ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This paper studies how punishment affects future compliance behavior and isolates deterrence effects mediated by learning. Using administrative data from speed cameras that capture the full driving histories of more than a million cars over several years, we evaluate responses to punishment at the extensive (receiving a speeding ticket) and intensive margin (tickets with higher fines). Two complementary empirical strategies a regression discontinuity design and an event study coherently document strong responses to receiving a ticket: the speeding rate drops by a third and reoffense rates fall by 70% Higher fines produce a small but imprecisely estimated additional effect. All responses occur immediately and are persistent over time, with no backsliding towards speeding even two years after receiving a ticket. Our evidence rejects unlearning and temporary salience effects. Instead, it supports a learning model in which agents update their priors on the expected punishment in a coarse manner.

How Sticky Is Retirement Behavior in the U.S.?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-55
Author(s):  
Manasi Deshpande ◽  
Itzik Fadlon ◽  
Colin Gray
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Suggestive Evidence ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Retirement Behavior ◽  
The U.S

Abstract We study how increases in the U.S. Social Security full retirement age (FRA) affect benefit claiming behavior and retirement behavior separately. Using long panels of Social Security administrative data, we implement complementary research designs of a traditional cohort analysis and a regression-discontinuity design. We find that while claiming ages strongly and immediately shift in response to increases in the FRA, retirement ages exhibit persistent “stickiness” at the old FRA of 65. We use several strategies to explore the likely mechanisms behind the stickiness in retirement and find suggestive evidence that employers play a role in workers' responses to the FRA.

scholarly journals Who Punishes Extremist Nominees? Candidate Ideology and Turning Out the Base in US Elections

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 509-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL ◽  
DANIEL M. THOMPSON
Keyword(s):  
Administrative Data ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
American Politics ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Campaign Contributions ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Swing Voters

Political observers, campaign experts, and academics alike argue bitterly over whether it is more important for a party to capture ideologically moderate swing voters or to encourage turnout among hardcore partisans. The behavioral literature in American politics suggests that voters are not informed enough, and are too partisan, to be swing voters, while the institutional literature suggests that moderate candidates tend to perform better. We speak to this debate by examining the link between the ideology of congressional candidates and the turnout of their parties’ bases in US House races, 2006–2014. Combining a regression discontinuity design in close primary races with survey and administrative data on individual voter turnout, we find that extremist nominees—as measured by the mix of campaign contributions they receive—suffer electorally, largely because theydecreasetheir party’s share of turnout in the general election, skewing the electorate towards their opponent’s party. The results help show how the behavioral and institutional literatures can be connected. For our sample of elections, turnout appears to be the dominant force in determining election outcomes, but it advantages ideologically moderate candidates because extremists appear to activate the opposing party’s base more than their own.

scholarly journals Housing and sanitation-related diseases

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 487-508
Author(s):  
Fabio Nobuo Nishimura
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Rental Housing ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Housing Program ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Over Time

Housing and health-related issues are typical concerns of developing countries since their consequences usually lead to deadly diseases. Hence, in order to improve the assertiveness of public policies, minimize the divergence between actions proposed by different studies and contribute to mitigate those issues, this paper seeks to understand the relative impacts of the proposed policies as well as their efficiency. Thus, this paper evaluates the Brazilian Rental Housing Program (RHP) using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) model, a strategy that is strengthened by the performance of robustness tests. As a result, we verified that RHP was able to reduce deaths from sanitation-related diseases by up to 11% and that this effect increases over time.

Long-Term Consequences of Election Results

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 351-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Fowler ◽  
Andrew B. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
The Us ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Over Time

Voters in US elections receive markedly different representation depending on which candidate they elect, and because of incumbent advantages, the effects of this choice persist for many years. What are the long-term consequences of these two phenomena? Combining electoral and legislative roll-call data in a dynamic regression discontinuity design, this study assesses the long-term consequences of election results for representation. Across the US House, the US Senate and state legislatures, the effects of ‘coin-flip’ elections persist for at least a decade in all settings, and for as long as three decades in some. Further results suggest that elected officials do not adapt their roll-call voting to their districts’ preferences over time, and that voters do not systematically respond by replacing incumbents.

scholarly journals Peer Effects in Program Participation

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (7) ◽  
pp. 2049-2074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon B. Dahl ◽  
Katrine V. Løken ◽  
Magne Mogstad
Keyword(s):  
Information Transmission ◽  
Peer Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Program Participation ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Paternity Leave ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Over Time

We estimate peer effects in paid paternity leave in Norway using a regression discontinuity design. Coworkers and brothers are 11 and 15 percentage points, respectively, more likely to take paternity leave if their peer was exogenously induced to take up leave. The most likely mechanism is information transmission, including increased knowledge of how an employer will react. The estimated peer effect snowballs over time, as the first peer interacts with a second peer, the second peer with a third, and so on. This leads to long-run participation rates which are substantially higher than would otherwise be expected. (JEL J13, J16, J18, K31, M52, Z13)

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