How Sticky Is Retirement Behavior in the U.S.?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-55
Author(s):  
Manasi Deshpande ◽  
Itzik Fadlon ◽  
Colin Gray
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Suggestive Evidence ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Retirement Behavior ◽  
The U.S

Abstract We study how increases in the U.S. Social Security full retirement age (FRA) affect benefit claiming behavior and retirement behavior separately. Using long panels of Social Security administrative data, we implement complementary research designs of a traditional cohort analysis and a regression-discontinuity design. We find that while claiming ages strongly and immediately shift in response to increases in the FRA, retirement ages exhibit persistent “stickiness” at the old FRA of 65. We use several strategies to explore the likely mechanisms behind the stickiness in retirement and find suggestive evidence that employers play a role in workers' responses to the FRA.

Did Gainful Employment Regulations Result in College and Program Closures?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Robert Kelchen ◽  
Zhuoyao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Federal Funding ◽  
Department Of Education ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Federal Financial Aid ◽  
Gainful Employment ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Lower Likelihood ◽  
The U.S

For decades, the federal government has expected vocationally-focused programs in higher education, especially among for-profit colleges, to lead to gainful employment in a profession. In the mid-2010s, the U.S. Department of Education developed gainful employment (GE) regulations that sought to tie a program's federal financial aid eligibility to graduates’ debt-to-earnings ratios. We use a regression discontinuity design to examine whether for-profit programs’ performance on GE was associated with the likelihood of closing the program or college. Although the regulations were repealed before any program lost federal funding, we find that passing GE was associated with a lower likelihood of program and college closures.

scholarly journals Class-Size Caps, Sorting, and the Regression-Discontinuity Design

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Urquiola ◽  
Eric Verhoogen
Keyword(s):  
Class Size ◽  
Student Outcomes ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Household Characteristics ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Education Market ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines how schools' choices of class size and households' choices of schools affect regression-discontinuity-based estimates of the effect of class size on student outcomes. We build a model in which schools are subject to a class-size cap and an integer constraint on the number of classrooms, and higher-income households sort into higher-quality schools. The key prediction, borne out in data from Chile's liberalized education market, is that schools at the class-size cap adjust prices (or enrollments) to avoid adding an additional classroom, which generates discontinuities in the relationship between enrollment and household characteristics, violating the assumptions underlying regression-discontinuity research designs. (JEL D12, I21, I28, O15)

scholarly journals What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

2015 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The U.S

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

scholarly journals Learning from Law Enforcement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Libor Dusek ◽  
Christian Traxler
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Intensive Margin ◽  
Compliance Behavior ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This paper studies how punishment affects future compliance behavior and isolates deterrence effects mediated by learning. Using administrative data from speed cameras that capture the full driving histories of more than a million cars over several years, we evaluate responses to punishment at the extensive (receiving a speeding ticket) and intensive margin (tickets with higher fines). Two complementary empirical strategies a regression discontinuity design and an event study coherently document strong responses to receiving a ticket: the speeding rate drops by a third and reoffense rates fall by 70% Higher fines produce a small but imprecisely estimated additional effect. All responses occur immediately and are persistent over time, with no backsliding towards speeding even two years after receiving a ticket. Our evidence rejects unlearning and temporary salience effects. Instead, it supports a learning model in which agents update their priors on the expected punishment in a coarse manner.

scholarly journals Long-Term Contextual Effects in Education: Schools and Neighborhoods

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-377
Author(s):  
Jean-William Laliberté
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Contextual Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Long Term Impact

This paper estimates the long-term impact of growing up in better neighborhoods and attending better schools on educational attainment. First, I use a spatial regression-discontinuity design to estimate school effects. Second, I study students who move across neighborhoods in Montreal during childhood to estimate the causal effect of growing up in a better area (total exposure effects). I find large effects for both dimensions. Combining both research designs in a decomposition framework, and under key assumptions, I estimate that 50–70 percent of the benefits of moving to a better area on educational attainment are due to access to better schools. (JEL H75, I21, R23)

scholarly journals Can the Easter break induce a long-term break of exercise routines? An analysis of Danish gym data using a regression discontinuity design

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. e024043
Author(s):  
Eskild Klausen Fredslund ◽  
Anja Leppin
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Exercise Frequency ◽  
Physically Active ◽  
Exercise Habit ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Motivational Support

ObjectivesMany sedentary individuals are aware of the health benefits of regular physical activity and start becoming more physically active. Yet, despite good intentions, many struggle to keep up initial exercise levels and experience a decline in exercise frequency. A possible explanation is that it is hard to establish habits or routines, and that such routines—once established—might be easy to break. In this paper, we analyse whether a break in habitual/routine behaviour—induced by the Easter holidays—results in individuals exercising less after the break.MethodsThe study included a sample of 1210 members of a Danish chain of fitness centres who were gym members at least since the preceding New Year’s Day. Participants granted access to gym attendance data, which were automatically recorded when entering the gym. We use a regression discontinuity design encompassing a time period of 10 weeks prior to and 10 weeks after Easter.ResultsWe found a significant and relevant discretionary drop in exercise frequency right after the Easter holidays of 0.24 times per week (p=0.001) corresponding to a fall of 12.25% compared with the week prior to the Easter holidays. The effect was especially profound for individuals below retirement age and for individuals who had attended the gym with a higher frequency (twice a week or more) in the 6 weeks prior to the Easter break.DiscussionThis information is potentially relevant for helping individuals maintain an exercise habit. Motivational support should focus on the time period after normative breaks, such as Easter or other holidays.

scholarly journals A Replication of “Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U.S. House” (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2004)

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 886-893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Button
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Nonparametric Methods ◽  
Quarterly Journal ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Parametric Methods ◽  
Modern Analysis ◽  
2012 Election ◽  
The U.S

I replicate Lee, David S., Enrico Moretti, and Matthew J. Butler. 2004. “Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U.S. House,” using new advances in regression discontinuity design methodology and data extended to the 2012 election. For the methodology, I use nonparametric methods with optimal bandwidths and bias correction, and I investigate the sensitivity of results to parametric methods, bandwidth, and the inclusion of covariates. My results with this more thorough and modern analysis are the same.

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