Long-Term Consequences of Election Results

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 351-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Fowler ◽  
Andrew B. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
The Us ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
Over Time

Voters in US elections receive markedly different representation depending on which candidate they elect, and because of incumbent advantages, the effects of this choice persist for many years. What are the long-term consequences of these two phenomena? Combining electoral and legislative roll-call data in a dynamic regression discontinuity design, this study assesses the long-term consequences of election results for representation. Across the US House, the US Senate and state legislatures, the effects of ‘coin-flip’ elections persist for at least a decade in all settings, and for as long as three decades in some. Further results suggest that elected officials do not adapt their roll-call voting to their districts’ preferences over time, and that voters do not systematically respond by replacing incumbents.

The Democratic Deficit of United States Federalism? Red State, Blue State, Purple?

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 645-667
Author(s):  
Vicki C Jackson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Legislature ◽  
Democratic Deficit ◽  
The Us ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
The One ◽  
Over Time

Aspects of an entrenched constitution that were essential parts of founding compromises, and justified as necessary when a constitution was first adopted, may become less justifiable over time. Is this the case with respect to the structure of the United States Senate? The US Senate is hardwired in the Constitution to consist of an equal number of Senators from each state—the smallest of which currently has about 585,000 residents, and the largest of which has about 39.29 million. As this essay explains, over time, as population inequalities among states have grown larger, so too has the disproportionate voting power of smaller-population states in the national Senate. As a result of the ‘one-person, one-vote’ decisions of the 1960s that applied to both houses of state legislatures, each state legislature now is arguably more representative of its state population than the US Congress is of the US population. The ‘democratic deficit’ of the Senate, compared to state legislative bodies, also affects presidential (as compared to gubernatorial) elections. When founding compromises deeply entrenched in a constitution develop harder-to-justify consequences, should constitutional interpretation change responsively? Possible implications of the ‘democratic’ difference between the national and the state legislatures for US federalism doctrine are explored, especially with respect to the ‘pre-emption’ doctrine. Finally, the essay briefly considers the possibilities of federalism for addressing longer term issues of representation, polarisation and sustaining a single nation.

How Much of the Incumbency Advantage is Due to Scare-Off?

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 493-514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew B. Hall ◽  
James M. Snyder
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Previous Election ◽  
Us Senate ◽  
State Legislative

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the degree to which incumbents scare off challengers with previous officeholder experience. The estimates indicate a surprisingly small amount of scare-off, at least in cases where the previous election was nearly tied. As Lee and others have shown (and as we confirm for our samples) the estimated party incumbency advantage in these same cases is quite large—in fact, it is about as large as the average incumbency advantage for all races found using other approaches. Drawing from previous estimates of the electoral value of officeholder experience, we thus calculate that scare-off in these cases accounts for only about 5–7 percent of the party incumbency advantage. We show that these patterns are similar in elections for US House seats, statewide offices and US senate seats, and state legislative seats.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amado Peirό
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Us ◽  
Production Prices ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the US. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates the existence of strong comovements in prices and long-term interest rates, and, to a lesser degree, in GDP and short-term interest rates. They are, however, rather unstable over time.

Tracking Emotions over Time (the “ARC”)

2021 ◽  
pp. 81-92
Author(s):  
Heather Thompson-Brenner ◽  
Melanie Smith ◽  
Gayle Brooks ◽  
Dee Ross Franklin ◽  
Hallie Espel-Huynh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emotional Responses ◽  
Emotional Experiences ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
And Behaviors ◽  
Over Time

The primary goal for this session is for clients to explore and learn how emotional experiences unfold. This allows clients to learn from their emotional experiences and how these experiences can influence their later behaviors and emotions. During this session, clients learn the steps that unfold over time in emotions: antecedent (A, what happened before), response (R, which includes thoughts, physical sensations, and behaviors/urges), and consequence (C, what happens after). Clients learn to look for patterns in their emotional triggers. They also learn to explore short- and long-term consequences of their emotional responses. Form 8.1: The ARC of Emotional Experiences is introduced.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Minimum-Wage Exemption of the Long-Term Unemployed in Germany

ILR Review ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1095-1118
Author(s):  
Matthias Umkehrer ◽  
Philipp vom Berge
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Unemployment Duration ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Micro Data ◽  
Job Seekers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Employment Stability

The authors evaluate the exemption of long-term unemployed job seekers from Germany’s national minimum wage. Using linked survey and administrative micro data, they rely on a regression discontinuity design to identify the effects of the policy by comparing hiring rates, employment stability, and entry wages around the administrative threshold between short-term and long-term unemployment. They find that the exemption is very rarely used and that the minimum wage binds irrespective of past unemployment duration. While the minimum wage led to a relative rise in entry wages for the long-term unemployed compared to the short-term unemployed, the authors do not detect a relative deterioration in their employment prospects.

scholarly journals What Happens When Extremists Win Primaries?

2015 ◽  
Vol 109 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANDREW B. HALL
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
General Election ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Legislative Behavior ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Roll Call ◽  
Primary Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The U.S

This article studies the interplay of U.S. primary and general elections. I examine how the nomination of an extremist changes general-election outcomes and legislative behavior in the U.S. House, 1980–2010, using a regression discontinuity design in primary elections. When an extremist—as measured by primary-election campaign receipt patterns—wins a “coin-flip” election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points, and the probability that the party wins the seat decreases by 35–54 percentage points. This electoral penalty is so large that nominating the more extreme primary candidate causes the district’s subsequent roll-call representation to reverse, on average, becoming more liberal when an extreme Republican is nominated and more conservative when an extreme Democrat is nominated. Overall, the findings show how general-election voters act as a moderating filter in response to primary nominations.

scholarly journals Leading over the Long Run: Rhetorical Consequentialism and Rhetorical Leadership

Res Rhetorica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarke Rountree
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Political Rhetoric ◽  
Rhetorical Theory ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Material Conditions ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Rhetorical Leadership

Because the goals leaders and organizations seek typically require persistent engagement over time, rhetorical leadership has as a central concern the long-term consequences of the leader’s rhetorical choices. Although traditional rhetorical theory downplayed this long-term perspective in favor of the singular rhetorical engagement (such as a speech), rhetorical theorists have begun considering the rhetorical implications of persuasion wrought over the long-run. This essay applies rhetorical consequentialism, a theoretical perspective developed by the author, to explain the orientation and strategies the rhetorical leader must consider in longterm persuasion. Leaders must be concerned about consistency over time to avoid charges of waffl ing, delusion, lying, hypocrisy, and the like if they are to maintain their ethos and that of their organizations. They also should take positive steps to create the symbolic and material conditions for rhetorical success over the long run. The essay describes „constraint avoidance” strategies that limit inconsistencies over time, as well as „stage-setting” strategies that prepare the symbolic and material ground for future rhetorical success. The essay draws examples from American political rhetoric, especially that of Donald Trump, to illuminate these strategies. The essay concludes by considering the challenges and prospects of such strategies.

scholarly journals Learning from Law Enforcement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Libor Dusek ◽  
Christian Traxler
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Intensive Margin ◽  
Compliance Behavior ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This paper studies how punishment affects future compliance behavior and isolates deterrence effects mediated by learning. Using administrative data from speed cameras that capture the full driving histories of more than a million cars over several years, we evaluate responses to punishment at the extensive (receiving a speeding ticket) and intensive margin (tickets with higher fines). Two complementary empirical strategies a regression discontinuity design and an event study coherently document strong responses to receiving a ticket: the speeding rate drops by a third and reoffense rates fall by 70% Higher fines produce a small but imprecisely estimated additional effect. All responses occur immediately and are persistent over time, with no backsliding towards speeding even two years after receiving a ticket. Our evidence rejects unlearning and temporary salience effects. Instead, it supports a learning model in which agents update their priors on the expected punishment in a coarse manner.

scholarly journals A Review of Factors to Consider for Permanent Cordon Establishment and Maintenance

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1811
Author(s):  
Patrick O’Brien ◽  
Roberta De Bei ◽  
Mark Sosnowski ◽  
Cassandra Collins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Vascular System ◽  
Vascular Diseases ◽  
Stress Conditions ◽  
Normal Flow ◽  
Training Techniques ◽  
Long Term Consequences ◽  
Over Time

Decisions made during the establishment and reworking of permanent cordon arms may have long-term consequences on vineyard health and longevity. This review aims to summarise several of the important considerations that must be taken into account during cordon establishment and maintenance. Commonly practiced cordon training techniques such as wrapping developing arms tightly around the cordon wire may result in a constriction of the vascular system, becoming worse over time and disrupting the normal flow of water and nutrients. Studies have shown that other factors of cordon decline such as the onset of vascular diseases may be influenced by pre-existing stress conditions. Such conditions could be further exacerbated by water and heat stress events, an important consideration as these scenarios become more common under the influence of climate change. Vineyard sustainability may be improved by adopting cordon training techniques which promote long-term vitality and avoid a reduction in vine defence response and the costly, premature reworking of vines.

scholarly journals Long-Term Contextual Effects in Education: Schools and Neighborhoods

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-377
Author(s):  
Jean-William Laliberté
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Contextual Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Long Term Impact

This paper estimates the long-term impact of growing up in better neighborhoods and attending better schools on educational attainment. First, I use a spatial regression-discontinuity design to estimate school effects. Second, I study students who move across neighborhoods in Montreal during childhood to estimate the causal effect of growing up in a better area (total exposure effects). I find large effects for both dimensions. Combining both research designs in a decomposition framework, and under key assumptions, I estimate that 50–70 percent of the benefits of moving to a better area on educational attainment are due to access to better schools. (JEL H75, I21, R23)

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