Future Environments of South America
An important goal of this book has been to provide a comprehensive understanding of the physical geography and landscape origins of South America as important background to assessing the probabilities and consequences of future environmental changes. Such background is essential to informed discussions of environmental management and the development of policy options designed to prepare local, national, and international societies for future changes. A unifying theme of this book has been the elucidation of how natural processes and human activities have interacted in the distant and recent past to create the modern landscapes of the continent. This retrospective appreciation of how the current landscapes have been shaped by nature and humans will guide our discussion of possible future trajectories of South American environments. There is abundant evidence from all regions of South America, from Tierra del Fuego to the Isthmus of Panama, that environmental change, not stasis, has been the norm. Given that fact, the history, timing, and recurrence intervals of this dynamism are all crucial pieces of information. The antiquity and widespread distribution of changes associated with the indigenous population are now well established. Rates and intensities of changes related to indigenous activities varied widely, but even in regions formerly believed to have experienced little or no pre-European impacts we now recognize the effects of early humans on features such as soils and vegetation. Colonization by Europeans mainly during the sixteenth century modified or in some cases replaced indigenous land-use practices and initiated changes that have continued to the present. Complementing these broad historical treatments of human impacts, other chapters have examined in detail the environmental impacts of agriculture (chapter 18) and urbanism (chapter 20), and the disruptions associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. The goal of this final synthesis is to identify the major drivers of change and to discuss briefly their likely impacts on South American environments and resources in the near and medium-term future. Our intent is not to make or defend predictions, but rather to identify broad causes and specific drivers of environmental change to inform discussions of policy options for mitigating undesirable changes and to facilitate potential societal adaptations to them.