Commodities and Derivatives, 1993–2006

2020 ◽  
pp. 190-222
Author(s):  
Ranald C. Michie
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Competitive Markets

Derivatives blossomed in volume and variety during the 1990s. Derivatives provided a means of insuring against fluctuations in prices, exchange rates, and interest rates, the default of borrowers, the collapse of issuers of securities, and the miscalculation of investors. In a world of uncertainty a derivatives contract could be used to guarantee a particular outcome regardless of the turn of events. Those guarantees underpinned countless decisions as they generated confidence that the risks being taken were predictable and manageable. Through the use of derivatives, buyers and sellers, borrowers and investors, savers and lenders, could experience the flexibility derived from liquid markets, combined with the returns generated by a long term commitment, without the rigidity imposed by government controls, business collusion, and the suppression of competition produced by division and compartmentalization. Derivatives offered a means of coping with the risks and volatility produced by open and competitive markets, where prices, exchange rates, and interest rates experienced wild fluctuations and counterparties defaulted on deals. For that reason derivatives were embraced by all ranging from regulators to speculators.

scholarly journals Impact of Monetary Policy and Foreign Direct Investment Against Indonesia's Economic Growth

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faridsky Faridsky ◽  
Syarwani Canon ◽  
Boby Rantow Payu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indicator Variables ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of monetary policy and FDI on economic growth and discuss it. The monetary indicator variables used are inflation, interest rates and exchange rates. The data used in this study are secondary data in 1990-2019 sourced from data from the Central Bureau of National Statistics and the World Bank. The analysis model in this study uses Multiple Linear Regression with the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis model. The results of the analysis show that in the long term monetary variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) have a significant effect on economic growth. And in the short term FDI has a significant effect on economic growth. It is concluded that monetary variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) are the main variables that affect economic growth in the long and short term.

scholarly journals ANALISIS MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA INDONESIA (MELALUI PENDEKATAN MONETER)

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Novri Candra ◽  
Idris Idris ◽  
Selli Nelonda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
National Income ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aimed to analyze the change in foreign exchange reserves which are affected by the state of national income, exchange rates, interest rates and inflation. This study was conducted to see the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. The method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study shows that the long-term effects of the variables national income and the exchange rate has a significant positive effect on foreign exchange reserves, while in the short term have a negative effect but not significant. Variable interest rates on long-term have a positive effect but not significant and in the short term have a significant negative effect on foreign exchange reserves. Variable inflation in the long term and short term no significant effect on the foreign exchange reserves. Results Error Correction Term (ECT) in this study amounted to 1,065, which means that in the short-term foreign exchange reserves will undergo considerable change and requires quite a long time to come back into balance.Keyword : Reserves, National Income, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Inflation ECM, ECT

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY ON INDONESIA'S FISHERIES EXPORT TO THE UNITED STATES IN 1989-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Akhmad Jayadi ◽  
Tanto Firmansyah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

Indonesia is a maritime country that has huge potential in fisheries sector. The average of indonesian fisheries production and export volumes always increase every year. This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, government spending, inflation, interest rates, and sanitation policies to Indonesia fishery export to the United States in 1989-2019. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, UN COMTRADE, and the Indonesian Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. This study uses the Error Coerrection Model (ECM) method to examine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. This study explains that in the long-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect, and interest rates have negative effect on export. In short-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect on export. Inflation and sanitation policy do not affect export in the long-term or short-term, while interest rates in the short-term do not affect Indonesian fishery exports. Keywords: Exports, Government Spending, Exchange Rates, Non-Tariff Barriers, Error Correction Model.JEL: F10, F13, C32

scholarly journals An analysis of the statistical relationship between precious metals prices and other monetary policy variables and inflation in South Africa

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 420-437
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Precious Metals ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Portfolio Strategies ◽  
Statistical Relationships

This study looked at the statistical relationship between precious metals prices, oil prices, money supply, interest rates and exchange ratesandinflation. It particularly looked at how inflation was influenced by these variables over time. The findings in this study were consistent with the hypothesis that the values of these variables influence inflation in the short-term and long-term. One of the findingsthat could be of interest especially for South Africa indicates that precious metalsprice changes, especially gold,could act as signals of pending changes to inflation and are also statistically related to interest rate movements. However, it was also found that the relationship between exchange rates movements during the financial crisis era between 2008 and 2010 did affect the other variables like prime, precious metals prices and oil prices which led to significant spikes in inflation. It should be emphasized that these finding of a statistical relationship is only consistent with observed data pertaining to South Africa and not proof of such behaviour prevailing in other markets. Even then, such a conclusion would require the isolation of a number of country specific behaviours and factors that may be correlated with precious metals prices, oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates and that may simultaneously affect inflation, which this study did not factor in. However, knowledge of statistical relationships can help in informing monetary policy responses and designing appropriate portfolio strategies although these findings do not provide unambiguous proof of any underlying behavioural hypothesis.

scholarly journals PENGARUH FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY (FINTECH) TERHADAP STABILITAS SISTEM KEUANGAN DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 921
Author(s):  
Birgitta Dian Saraswati ◽  
Ni Made Tisnawati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial System ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
P2p Lending

Financial stability is very important in the economy because financial stability will ensure smooth financial transactions in the economy.This study aims to analyze the effect of P2P lending fintech, payment fintech and macroeconomic variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) on financial stability in Indonesia.This study uses time series data with the period 2018.1-2021.4. Using the Vector Error Correction Model, this research shows that Fintech P2P Lending, Fintech Payments and macroeconomic variables (inflation, interest rates and exchange rates) affect the financial stability in Indonesia only in the long term.Fintech P2P lending in the long term will lead to financial system instability, while Fintech payments in the long term have a positive effect on financial system stability in Indonesia. This has policy implications where through the role of the Financial Services Authority it is necessary to regulate and supervise P2P lending fintech. In addition, considering that payment fintech has a positive impact on financial system stability in Indonesia, through the role of Bank Indonesia, it is necessary to design policies to increase the use of non-cash payment instruments.

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates on Bank Stock Returns: Evidence from U.S. Banks

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verma Priti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Bank Stock ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bank Portfolios

AbstractThis paper examines the mean, volatility spillovers and response asymmetries between short-term and long-term interest rates, exchange rates and portfolios of money center, large and medium-sized banks in the U.S. I use the multivariate version of Nelson’s (1991) Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (EGARCH) model. Results indicate mean and volatility spillovers from short-term interest rates and exchange rates and long-term interest rates and exchange rates to three bank portfolios. Results also show response asymmetries from short-term interest rates and exchange rates and long-term interest rates and exchange rates to all the three bank portfolios. These findings have important implications for bankers in terms of devising different hedging strategies against interest rates and exchange rate risks.

scholarly journals Analysis of Inflation Targets in Indonesia During The New Normal Era: New Consensus Approach to an Open Economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Abdul Kadir Arno ◽  
Ilham Ilham ◽  
Akbar Sabani ◽  
Iksan Purnama
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Consensus Approach ◽  
Inflation Targets

This article aims to discuss a growth model in terms of demand constrained by economic policy with inflation targeting in a super multiplier sraff model by analyzing how economic policy can affect productive capacity growth. This article also analyzes the open economy if inflation is a phenomenon resulting from the policy of the monetary authority that can manage the nominal exchange rate through changes in interest rates. Since the distribution of functional income will depend on the evolution of nominal wages, exchange rates and interest rates, we will show that the inflation targeting system, apart from being neutral in terms of long-term growth, can also produce different results in terms of the distribution of functional income

scholarly journals REAKSI HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN AGRIBISNIS INDEKS LQ-45 TERHADAP PERUBAHAN VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-140
Author(s):  
Alghif Aruni Nur Rukman ◽  
Harianto Harianto ◽  
Suprehatin Suprehatin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Stock Price Reaction

This study aims to analyze the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, namely exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation on stock prices of agribusiness companies on the LQ-45 index. This study used monthly time series data from 2008-2018 and analyzed by the VECM method. The results showed that the stock price reaction of eight agribusiness companies in the LQ-45 index varies with changes in macroeconomic variables both in the short and long term. In the short term, changes in exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on one company stock prices, while changes in inflation and interest rates had a negative and significant effect on four companies and one company respectively. In the long term, the results showed that changes in exchange rates had a positive and significant effect on two companies’ stock prices, while it had a negative and significant effect on five companies. The result also showed that changes in inflation had a positive and negative effect on one company and six companies respectively in the long term. Also besides changes in interest rates had a positive and negative effect on two companies’ stock prices respectively.

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