The Hybrid Solution to the Problems of Error and Uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly M. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid System ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Lower Tier ◽  
Tier System ◽  
Hybrid Solution ◽  
Fred Feldman

Chapter 10 investigates whether the combined Austere and Hybrid two-tier system, now re-labeled the “Hybrid solution,” provides an effective response to the problem of uncertainty. Criteria of adequacy for a solution to this problem are articulated, and versions of the approach offering a single decision-guide at the lower tier are assessed. Popular guides, such as “Perform the act most likely to be obligatory,” “Maximize expected value,” and “Try to perform the obligatory act,” along with more sophisticated guides proposed by Fred Feldman and John Pollock, are each shown to be inadequate, partly because they demand a richer set of beliefs than many agents possess. The chapter concludes that a Hybrid system offering multiple decision-guides for uncertainty seems far better positioned to solve the problem of uncertainty.

The Problems of Ignorance and Uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly M. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Lower Tier ◽  
Theoretical Account ◽  
Hybrid Approaches ◽  
Tier System ◽  
Special Case

Chapter 9 turns to further epistemic barriers for decision makers: the problems of (nonmoral) ignorance and (nonmoral) uncertainty. The concepts of “ignorance” and “uncertainty” are elucidated, the problem of uncertainty is defined, and it is argued that the problem of ignorance should be treated as a special case of the problem of uncertainty. The three salient attempts to solve the problem are the Pragmatic, Austere, and Hybrid approaches. Combined solutions to the problem of error and the problem of uncertainty are explored, and it is argued that the only feasible approaches marry the Austere Response to the problem of error with the Hybrid Response to the problem of uncertainty in a two-tier system. The top-tier code provides the correct theoretical account of right and wrong, while the lower-tier rules provide associated decision-guides. Consistency requires that different normative terms be used by the top-tier rules and by the lower-tier rules.

scholarly journals Design of a Reliable Hybrid (PV/Diesel) Power System with Energy Storage in Batteries for Remote Residential Home

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Anayochukwu Ani
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid System ◽  
Residential Home ◽  
Simulation Tool ◽  
System Efficiency ◽  
Battery Storage ◽  
Round Trip ◽  
Pv Array ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Hybrid Solution ◽  
Battery Bank

This paper reports the experience acquired with a photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system simulated as an alternative to diesel system for a residential home located in Southern Nigeria. The hybrid system was designed to overcome the problem of climate change, to ensure a reliable supply without interruption, and to improve the overall system efficiency (by the integration of the battery bank). The system design philosophy was to maximize simplicity; hence, the system was sized using conventional simulation tool and representative insolation data. The system includes a 15 kW PV array, 21.6 kWh (3600 Ah) worth of battery storage, and a 5.4 kW (6.8 kVA) generator. The paper features a detailed analysis of the energy flows through the system and quantifies all losses caused by PV charge controller, battery storage round-trip, rectifier, and inverter conversions. In addition, simulation was run to compare PV/diesel/battery with diesel/battery and the results show that the capital cost of a PV/diesel hybrid solution with batteries is nearly three times higher than that of a generator and battery combination, but the net present cost, representing cost over the lifetime of the system, is less than one-half of the generator and battery combination.

Multiple-Rule Hybrid Solutions to the Problems of Error and Uncertainty

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly M. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Systems ◽  
Hybrid System ◽  
Guiding Principle ◽  
The Core ◽  
Lower Tier ◽  
Extended Sense ◽  
Theoretical Account ◽  
Hybrid Solutions

Chapter 11 argues that the best Hybrid system is one in which multiple lower-tier decision-guides are arranged in a hierarchy that prioritizes, on deontic grounds, the guides that are best to use in situations where an agent can use more than one guide in deriving a prescription. The system includes a theoretical account of right and wrong (Code C) that prescribes acts as objectively obligatory, together with a general decision-guiding principle (Code C*). Code C* prescribes as subjectively obligatory the act recommended as choice-mandated by the decision-guide, usable in the core sense by the agent, that is higher in the hierarchy of choice-mandating decision-guides than any other decision-guide usable by the agent and appropriate to Code C. This decision-guide need only be usable in the core, not the extended, sense. Sample consequentialist and Rossian Hybrid systems are outlined.

A Novel Hybrid System for the Fabrication of Electrospun Mat with Microspheres

2013 ◽  
Vol 690-693 ◽  
pp. 475-478
Author(s):  
Sai Zhang ◽  
Guo Jun Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Aqueous Solution ◽  
Polyvinyl Alcohol ◽  
Hybrid System ◽  
Solvent Evaporation ◽  
Deionized Water ◽  
Biodegradable Microspheres ◽  
Oil In Water ◽  
Hybrid Solution ◽  
Evaporation Technique

In this paper, we presented a novel system of electrospinning to directly prepare fibrous meshes with micro/nanoparticles. Acetate cellulose (CA) as the material of micro/nanoparticles was dissolved in the mixture of acetone and dichloromethane as well as polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) was dissolved into deionized water, respectively. We successfully fabricated CA microspheres by an oil-in-water (O/W) emulsion/solvent evaporation technique, instilling CA solution into the stirring PVA aqueous solution. Then the hybrid solution was fabricated into a fibrous mat through electrospinning. CA micro/nanoparticles were wrapped in PVA fibers which indicated that the hybrid system of electrospinning had great potential in biomedicine when combing biodegradable microspheres with drugs.

Interactive Effect of Dispositional Cognitive Avoidance, Magnitude of Threat, and Response Efficacy on the Persuasive Impact of Threat Communications

2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Nestler ◽  
Boris Egloff
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Cognitive Avoidance ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Response Efficacy ◽  
Internet Study ◽  
High Threat

This internet study investigated the effect of individual differences in cognitive avoidance on the persuasive impact of threat communications. A total of 289 participants completed a measure of dispositional cognitive avoidance and read either a high- or a low-threat communication that provided either an effective response to reduce the threat or not. We found that cognitive avoidance did not moderate the effect of magnitude of threat when response efficacy was low. By contrast, cognitive avoidance was relevant when efficacy was high: After a high-threat message, low cognitive avoiders reported more favorable attitudes toward and intentions to adopt the action recommendation than high cognitive avoiders. Further analyses showed that severity perceptions mediate this effect of avoidance on attitudes and intentions. Individual differences in cognitive avoidance are thus an important moderator of the effectiveness of threat communications.

Kryothermie-Hybrid-System mit intern gasgekühltem Applikator zur Radiofrequenzablation

2007 ◽  
Vol 179 (S 1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H Rempp ◽  
S Clasen ◽  
M Voigtländer ◽  
S Kempf ◽  
A Weihusen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid System

The Russian ruble crisis of December 2014

2016 ◽  
pp. 66-86
Author(s):  
A. Obizhaeva
Keyword(s):  
Microstructure Analysis ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Large Order ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Face ◽  
Front Running ◽  
Futures And Options

The paper presents a microstructure analysis of the crash of the Russian ruble in mid-December 2014. The author shows that the market break probably happened due to the execution of a large order that converted Russian rubles into U.S. dollars over a short period of a few days. Expirations of futures and options as well as possible front-running could have exacerbated the collapse of the Russian currency. The paper discusses measures taken by the Moscow Exchange and Bank of Russia during the episode and makes several recommendations to prevent a repetition of the similar events and provide an effective response in the face of future market breaks.

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