Trends in Conflict

2018 ◽  
pp. 226-245
Author(s):  
Aaron Clauset ◽  
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Keyword(s):  
Current Debate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Causes Of War ◽  
The Future ◽  
Advance Research ◽  
Existing Data

Contending arguments on the causes of war often have divergent implications for trends and the possibility for change. Many argue that we observe a decline in conflict and violence, contrary to traditional conceptions of warfare as a fundamentally inescapable problem. Critics challenge whether conflict is in decline, our ability to make inferences about trends from existing data, and to what extent we can learn from the past about the present and the future. We provide a non-technical overview of the contending positions and the concepts necessary to understand the current debate. We review trends in common measures such as the number of conflicts and severity of wars, plausible models for distributions and the timing of conflicts, as well as the role of theory and assessing uncertainty. We conclude with some thoughts on how to advance research on trends in conflict and how to assess change at particular points in history.

Catholicism and Cosmopolitanism: the Confluence of Three Catholic Scholars and the Cosmopolitan Democrats on State Sovereignty and the Future of Global Governance

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-51
Author(s):  
Matthew Bagot
Keyword(s):  
Global Governance ◽  
State Sovereignty ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Jacques Maritain ◽  
The Past ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cosmopolitan Democracy ◽  
Catholic Tradition

One of the central questions in international relations today is how we should conceive of state sovereignty. The notion of sovereignty—’supreme authority within a territory’, as Daniel Philpott defines it—emerged after the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 as a result of which the late medieval crisis of pluralism was settled. But recent changes in the international order, such as technological advances that have spurred globalization and the emerging norm of the Responsibility to Protect, have cast the notion of sovereignty into an unclear light. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the current debate regarding sovereignty by exploring two schools of thought on the matter: first, three Catholic scholars from the past century—Luigi Sturzo, Jacques Maritain, and John Courtney Murray, S.J.—taken as representative of Catholic tradition; second, a number of contemporary political theorists of cosmopolitan democracy. The paper argues that there is a confluence between the Catholic thinkers and the cosmopolitan democrats regarding their understanding of state sovereignty and that, taken together, the two schools have much to contribute not only to our current understanding of sovereignty, but also to the future of global governance.

THE ROLE OF THAI PEOPLE IN VIETNAM – LAO TRADITIONAL FRIENDSHIP

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Van Loi
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Border Crossing ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
Thai People ◽  
Northwest Region ◽  
Coherent Relationship ◽  
National Borders

Vietnam - Laos has more than 2,000 km of common national borders. The coherent relationship between the two nations and the inhabitants of the two countries has been formed and fostered in history and especially developed over the past 7 decades. The Thai ethnic group in Vietnam has over one million people, residing permanently, concentrated in the Northwest region, the region consists of 8 provinces, of which 4 provinces have the Vietnam-Laos border crossing. This paper focuses on clarifying the practical basis for the Thai people to play a role in the traditional Vietnam-Laos friendship and propose some solutions to promote the role of Thai in maintaining, developing the traditional friendship between Vietnam and Laos, now and in the future.

A corpus-based investigation of techno-optimism and propositional certainty in the National Intelligence Council’s ‘Future Global Trends Reports’ (2010–2035)

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-57
Author(s):  
Jamie McKeown
Keyword(s):  
Global Trends ◽  
Future Role ◽  
Ideological Bias ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Global Peace ◽  
Discursive Representations

This article reports the findings from a study of discursive representations of the future role of technology in the work of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC). Specifically, it investigates the interplay of ‘techno-optimism’ (a form of ideological bias) and propositional certainty in the NIC’s ‘Future Global Trends Reports’. In doing so, it answers the following questions: To what extent was techno-optimism present in the discourse? What level of propositional certainty was expressed in the discourse? How did the discourse deal with the inherent uncertainty of the future? Overall, the discourse was pronouncedly techno-optimist in its stance towards the future role of technology: high-technological solutions were portrayed as solving a host of problems, despite the readily available presence of low-technology or no-technology solutions. In all, 75.1% of the representations were presented as future categorical certainties, meaning the future was predominantly presented as a known and closed inevitability. The discourse dealt with the inherent uncertainty of the subject matter, that is, the future, by projecting the past and present into the future. This was particularly the case in relation to the idea of technological military dominance as a guarantee of global peace, and the role of technology as an inevitable force free from societal censorship.

scholarly journals Where Does the World Historian Write From? Objectivity, Moral Conscience and the Past and Present of Imperialism

2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 671-685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Drayton
Keyword(s):  
Iraq War ◽  
Imperial History ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Academic Subject ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ethical Responsibilities

The contemporary historian, as she or he speaks to the public about the origins and meanings of the present, has important ethical responsibilities. ‘Imperial’ historians, in particular, shape how politicians and the public imagine the future of the world. This article examines how British imperial history, as it emerged as an academic subject since about 1900, often lent ideological support to imperialism, while more generally it suppressed or avoided the role of violence and terror in the making and keeping of the Empire. It suggests that after 2001, and during the Iraq War, in particular, a new Whig historiography sought to retail a flattering narrative of the British Empire’s past, and concludes with a call for a post-patriotic imperial history which is sceptical of power and speaks for those on the underside of global processes.

scholarly journals Mnemicity vs. Temporality: Distinguishing between components of episodic representations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Mahr
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Orientation ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
The Past ◽  
Episodic Simulation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Event Simulations

Human beings regularly 'mentally travel' to past and future times in memory and imagination. In theory, whether an event is remembered or imagined (its ‘mnemicity’) underspecifies whether it is oriented towards the past or the future (its ‘temporality’). However, it remains unclear to what extent the temporal orientation of such episodic simulations is cognitively represented separately from their status as memories or imagination. To address this question, we investigated whether episodic simulations are more easily distinguishable in memory by virtue of their temporal orientation or their mnemicity. In three experiments (N = 360), participants were asked to generate and later recall events differing along the lines of temporal orientation (past/future) and mnemicity (remembered/imagined). Across all of our experiments, we consistently found that participants were more likely to confuse in recall event simulations that shared the same temporal orientation rather than the same mnemicity. These results show that the temporal orientation of episodic representations can be cognitively represented separately from their mnemicity and have implications for debates about the role of temporality in episodic simulation.

scholarly journals A Review of Finance–Growth Nexus Theories: How Does Development Finance Fits in?

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nyankomo Marwa ◽  
Stephen Zhanje
Keyword(s):  
Developed Countries ◽  
Theoretical Development ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Conventional Model ◽  
Development Finance ◽  
The Past ◽  
Concise Review ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Finance Growth Nexus

Abstract The finance growth-nexus debates have been contentious over the past three decades both empirically and theoretically. To contribute to this debate, the current paper presents a concise review of finance-growths nexus theoretical development and the current debate around growth-finance nexus theories. Then, it extends the current theoretical debate to include development finance within the broader scheme of finance-growth discourse. The key emerging trend is that, most of the contemporary theories trying to explain finance growth nexus have been exclusively focusing on the standard finance in general. Little attention has been devoted to understand the role of development finance on finance-growth nexus. It concludes that, for a more comprehensive understanding of the finance growth nexus, the role of development finance should be integrated in theory of finance-growth nexus. The paper demonstrates that conventional model of finance-growth nexus is more likely to underestimate the magnitude of the impact of finance on economic growth especially for less developed countries. The paper suggests that, a model which breakdown the finance into standard finance subgroup and development finance subgroup may provide more accurate and insightful findings.

scholarly journals Operating without operations: how is technology changing the role of the firm?

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 809-833 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Breidbach ◽  
Sunmee Choi ◽  
Benjamin Ellway ◽  
Byron W. Keating ◽  
Katerina Kormusheva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Operations Research ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Service Operations ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Future ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the history and future of service operations, with the goal to identify key theoretical and technological advances, as well as fundamental themes that can help to imagine the future of service operations in 2050. Design/methodology/approach A review of the service operations literature was undertaken to inform a discussion regarding the role that technology will play in the future of service operations. Findings The future of service operations is framed in terms of three key themes – complexity, orchestration, and elasticity. The paper makes three contributions to the service science literature by: reviewing key themes underpinning extant service operations research to frame future trajectories of service operations research; elaborating a vision of service operations in 2050 based on history and technology; and outlining a research agenda for future service operations. Practical implications The case of service automation is used to provide an illustration of how the three themes converge to define future service operations, and in particular, to show how technology is recasting the role of the firm. Originality/value Service operations in the next 30 years will be very different from what it was in the past 30 years. This paper differs from other review papers by identifying three key themes that will characterize and instill new insights into the future of service operations research.

Virtual Reality from the Standpoint of Complexity Science

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 244-260
Author(s):  
Helena Knyazeva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Virtual Reality ◽  
Modern Science ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extended Approach ◽  
Human Creativity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Latent Potential ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

An extended approach to the comprehension of virtual reality is developed in the article. Virtual reality is understood not only as a logically possible or cybernetically constructed reality but also as continuous turbulence of potencies of the complex natural and social world we live in, the wandering of complex systems and organizations over a field of possibilities, such a realization of forms and structures in which many formations remain in latent, potential forms, and are in the permanent process of making and multiplying a spectrum of possibilities, lead to the growth of the evolutionary tree of paths of development. It is shown that such an understanding of virtual reality corresponds to concepts and notions developed in the modern science of complexity. The most significant concepts are considered, such as the nonlinearity of time, the relationship of space and time, the uncertainty of the past and the openness of the future, the choice and construction of the future at the moments of passing the bifurcation points. Some cultural and historical prototypes of these modern ideas of virtual reality are given. It is substantiated that the vision of virtual reality being developed today can play the role of a heuristic tool for understanding the functioning and stimulation of human creativity.

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