scholarly journals Using Benford’s law to assess the quality of COVID-19 register data in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Silva ◽  
Dalson Figueiredo Filho
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Distortion Factor ◽  
Benford Law ◽  
Official Data

Abstract We employ Newcomb–Benford law (NBL) to evaluate the reliability of COVID-19 figures in Brazil. Using official data from February 25 to September 15, we apply a first digit test for a national aggregate dataset of total cases and cumulative deaths. We find strong evidence that Brazilian reports do not conform to the NBL theoretical expectations. These results are robust to different goodness of fit (chi-square, mean absolute deviation and distortion factor) and data sources (John Hopkins University and Our World in Data). Despite the growing appreciation for evidence-based-policymaking, which requires valid and reliable data, we show that the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system fails to provide trustful data under the NBL assumption on the COVID-19 epidemic.

Simple Index to Assess the Calibration Quality of Safety Performance Functions Based on Multiple Goodness-of-Fit Metrics

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110088
Author(s):  
Raul E. Avelar ◽  
Karen Dixon ◽  
Boniphace Kutela ◽  
Sam Klump ◽  
Beth Wemple ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Safety Database ◽  
Simple Index ◽  
Safety Performance Functions

The calibration of safety performance functions (SPFs) is a mechanism included in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) to adjust SPFs in the HSM for use in intended jurisdictions. Critically, the quality of the calibration procedure must be assessed before using the calibrated SPFs. Multiple resources to aid practitioners in calibrating SPFs have been developed in the years following the publication of the HSM 1st edition. Similarly, the literature suggests multiple ways to assess the goodness-of-fit (GOF) of a calibrated SPF to a data set from a given jurisdiction. This paper uses the calibration results of multiple intersection SPFs to a large Mississippi safety database to examine the relations between multiple GOF metrics. The goal is to develop a sensible single index that leverages the joint information from multiple GOF metrics to assess overall quality of calibration. A factor analysis applied to the calibration results revealed three underlying factors explaining 76% of the variability in the data. From these results, the authors developed an index and performed a sensitivity analysis. The key metrics were found to be, in descending order: the deviation of the cumulative residual (CURE) plot from the 95% confidence area, the mean absolute deviation, the modified R-squared, and the value of the calibration factor. This paper also presents comparisons between the index and alternative scoring strategies, as well as an effort to verify the results using synthetic data. The developed index is recommended to comprehensively assess the quality of the calibrated intersection SPFs.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONTAMINATION AND DEATHS CASES IN BRAZIL ACCORDING TO THE NEWCOMB-BENFORD

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 522-535
Author(s):  
Carlos Roberto Souza CARMO ◽  
Fernando de Lima CANEPPELE ◽  
Fábio Caixeta NUNES
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Benford Law

The use of the Newcomb-Benford Law in assessing the quality of health and / orepidemiological information systems can allow relevant decisions to be made to improve these systems. In this context, this research aimed to carry out an assessment of the conformity of theinformation regarding the number of cases of contamination and deaths by COVID-19 in Brazil according to the Newcomb-Benford Law, from the moment of the occurrence of the first case of the disease and from the first death by COVID-19 in the country until the month of September 2020. With the aid of descriptive statistics and the use of metrics related to the Z test and themean absolute deviation it was possible to observe that, both from a national and longitudinal perspective as for the transversal-state perspective, the quantitative data referring to the cases of contamination by the coronavirus and the deaths that occurred as a result of COVID-19 did not present the expected behavior according to the Newcomb-Benford Law. Due to the lack of conformity in relation to the Newcomb-Benford Law, it is suspected that some level of conformity specific to this type of data has occurred, in the Brazilian context, since there are already studies that suggest the existence of proper levels of conformity for certain types of data.

scholarly journals THE APPLICATION OF BENFORD'S LAW IN PSYCHOLOGICAL PRICING DETECTION

2018 ◽  
pp. 37-57
Keyword(s):  
Uniform Distribution ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Discrete Uniform Distribution ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Discrete Uniform ◽  
Chi Square Tests

This paper presents the application of Benford's law in psychological pricing detection. Benford's law is naturally occurring law which states that digits have predictable frequencies of appearance with digit one having the highest frequency. Psychological pricing is one of the marketing pricing strategies directed on price setting which have the psychological impact on certain consumers. In order to investigate the application of Benford's law in psychological pricing detection, Benford's law is observed in the case of first and last digits. In order to inspect if the first and last digits of the observed prices are distributed according to the Benford’s law distribution or discrete uniform distribution respectively, mean absolute deviation measure, chi-square tests and Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z tests are used. Results of the analysis conducted on three price datasets have shown that the most dominating first digits are 1 and 2. On the other side, the most dominating last digits are 0, 5 and 9 respectively. The chi-square tests and Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z tests have showed that, at significance level of 5%, none of the three observed price datasets does have first digit distribution that fits to the Benford’s law distribution. Likewise, mean absolute deviation values have shown that there are large differences between the last digit distributions and the discrete uniform distribution implying psychological pricing in all price datasets.

scholarly journals The Disclosure of Audited Fund Campaign Accounting in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.21) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Lita Kusumasari ◽  
. .
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Legal Identity ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Set Up

After long history on democracy, Indonesia formed General Elections Commission (Indonesia: Komisi Pemilihan Umum (KPU)) in 1999. KPU is the legitimate body to organize elections in Indonesia.  The responsibilities of KPU are deciding the parties that can compete on elections, ruling the voting and the results of seat won for legislatives, president, and mayors in Indonesia. Including the task is set up regulation for campaign and fund campaign accounting. The fund campaign reports are audited using 15 agreed upon procedures by the auditors. The research findings are 42 mistakes from 11 political parties. Only one political party does not make the mistake. The weakness comes from many forms, such as: transpose error, not following the KPU rule no. 17, 2013, the donation is not supported by legal identity, the donation without legal identity is not given back to country, the fund is not placed in special account before used, the candidates submitted fund campaign report without supporting documents, there is error on placing expenditure segment, the sum error, and there is no consistency between one report to another report. The findings on fund campaign reporting from the political parties are analyzed by goodness of fit test (chi-square). The research found that the total mistakes on fund campaign reporting by political parties are same. Based on the result and weakness, KPU need to make it better understanding to political parties by doing training and assisting. The standards of implementation on KPU regulation need to impose so that the quality of fund campaign accounting could be improved. The time frame to report should also be considered. 

scholarly journals A fish rots from the head down: how to use the leading digits of ecological data to detect their falsification

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Cerri
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Research Evaluation ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
Numerical Series ◽  
Absolute Deviation

AbstractManaging wildlife populations requires good data. Researchers and policy makers need reliable population estimates and, in case of commercial or recreational harvesting, also trustworthy information about the number of removed individuals. However, auditing schemes are often weak and political or economic pressure could lead to data fabrication or falsification. Time-series data and population models are crucial to detect anomalies, but they are not always available nor feasible. Therefore, researchers need other tools to identify suspicious patterns in ecological and environmental data, to prioritize their controls. We showed how the Benford’s law might be used to identify anomalies and potential manipulation in ecological data, by testing for the goodness-of-fit of the leading digits with the Benford’s distribution. For this task, we inspected two datasets that were found to be falsified, containing data about estimated large carnivore populations in Romania and Soviet commercial whale catches in the Pacific Ocean. In both the two datasets, the first and second digits numerical series deviated from the expected Benford’s distribution. In data about large carnivores, the first too digits, taken together, also deviated from the expected Benford’s distribution and were characterized by a high Mean Absolute Deviation. In Soviet whale catches, while the single digits deviated from the Benford’s distribution and the Mean Absolute Deviation was high, the first two digits were not anomalous. This controversy invites researchers to combine multiple measures of nonconformity and to be cautious in analyzing mixtures of data. Testing the distribution of the leading digits might be a very useful tool to inspect ecological datasets and to detect potential falsifications, with great implications for policymakers and researchers as well. For example, if policymakers revealed anomalies in harvesting data or population estimates, commercial or recreational harvesting could be suspended and controls strengthened. On the other hand, revealing falsification in ecological research would be crucial for evidence-based conservation, as well as for research evaluation.

scholarly journals Attitudes, perceptions and barriers around evidence-based practice in sports physiotherapy in Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas K. Mwololo ◽  
Benita Oliver ◽  
Wallace M. Karuguti ◽  
Joseph M. Matheri
Keyword(s):  
Evidence Based Practice ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Training Experience ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Positive Attitudes ◽  
Insufficient Time ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Evidence Based Guidelines ◽  
Self Administered Questionnaire

Background: Healthcare practitioners are required to integrate clinical experience with the best research evidence for the benefit of the patient.Objective: Determine the attitudes, perceptions and barriers regarding evidence-based practice (EBP) in sports physiotherapy in Kenya.Method: A quantitative crosssectional study was conducted among licensed physiotherapists in the Republic of Kenya through a self-administered questionnaire. Associations between selected sociodemographic characteristics (gender, age, training, experience, specialisation) and attitudes, perceptions and barriers were determined using a Chi-square test.Results: A 55.9% (n = 391) response rate was recorded. A positive attitude towards EBP was reported by 94.6% (n = 370) of the respondents. The most obvious areas of agreement with attitude-and perception-related statements were that ‘EBP is important in that patients can receive the best possible treatment’ (95.9%; n = 375), and that it is important that ‘evidence-based guidelines related to work exist’ (84.6%; n = 331). There were no significant associations between the demographic characteristics (gender p = 0.104 [X2 = 2.638;1]; age p = 0.495 [X2 = 2.393;3]; training p = 0.590 [X2 = 4.644;6]; experience p = 0.980 [X2 = 0.426;4] and specialisation p = 0.649 [X2= 0.207;1]); and attitudes and perceptions regarding EBP. Insufficient time was highlighted by 57.8% (n = 226) of the respondents as one of the ‘most important barriers’.Conclusion: Although physiotherapists presented with strong positive attitudes towards EBP in sports physiotherapy, barriers were identified which could hinder the implementation of EBP in sports physiotherapy.Clinical implications: Barriers to applying EBP in sports physiotherapy may lead to inferior quality of care for athletes while addressing these barriers is crucial.

Behavioral and Occupational Health in Military Firefighters: An Understudied Population

2021 ◽  
pp. 014544552110335
Author(s):  
Brian A. Moore ◽  
Jason L. Judkins ◽  
Mari-Amanda Dyal ◽  
Michael Schlenk ◽  
Eric Meyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Depressive Disorders ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests ◽  
Medical Issues ◽  
Military Members ◽  
Therapy Interventions ◽  
The Impact

To our knowledge, no studies on health conditions in U.S. military firefighters exist. Data and demographics from the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database were analyzed on several shared medical issues among military personnel and civilian firefighters. Descriptive statistics and Chi-Square goodness of fit tests were conducted to support study aims. Between 2001 and 2015, substantial incidence rate increases (per 10,000) of tinnitus, PTSD, insomnia, and OSA (2005–2015) were observed. Modest to large increases in depressive disorders, adjustment reaction, generalized anxiety disorder, and panic disorder were observed. Decreasing rates were observed for alcohol dependence, hypertension, and tobacco use disorder. While efforts have examined the impact of sustained operations on military members, first responder military subgroups like firefighters are deficient. Cognitive Behavior Therapy interventions are efficacious for preventing and reducing behavioral health problems; therefore, tailoring them specifically for U.S. military firefighters could significantly improve quality of life and long-term health.

scholarly journals The Full Database of Countries with Potential COVID-19 Data Misreport based on Benford’s Law

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Kilani ◽  
Georgios P. Georgiou
Keyword(s):  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
The World ◽  
Benford's Law

AbstractThe aim of this database is to provide researchers and scholars a unified database for potential data misreport by 171 countries regarding their COVID-19 daily reported cases. The analysis employs three different tests (chi-square, Kuiper, and Mean Absolute Deviation) to determine if the data given by each country in the world fit Benford’s Law.

scholarly journals Diagnosis of non-viral sexually transmitted infections in Lithuania and international recommendations

2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 9-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Vagoras ◽  
R Butylkina ◽  
V Juseviciute ◽  
A Hallén ◽  
M Unemo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sexually Transmitted Infections ◽  
Performance Characteristics ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
External Quality ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Quality Controls ◽  
International Evidence ◽  
And Performance

The aim of this study is to evaluate the range, quality and availability of diagnostic services for non-viral sexually transmitted infections (STIs), i.e. C. trachomatis, N. gonorrhoeae, T. vaginalis and T. pallidum, in Lithuania from September 2002 to December 2003. Surveillance data describing the organisation and performance characteristics of non-viral STI diagnostic services in Lithuania were collected using a questionnaire and subsequent site-visits. International evidence-based recommendations for non-viral STI diagnosis were used to evaluate the quality of the STI diagnostics. There were 171 facilities providing non-viral STI diagnostic services for the 3.5 million inhabitants of Lithuania. However, only 6% (n=9) of the respondents (n=153) could provide a confirmatory diagnosis, in accordance with international recommendations, for the full minimum range of relevant non-viral STIs in Lithuania, i.e. C. trachomatis, N. gonorrhoeae, T. pallidum, and T. vaginalis. In addition, accessibility to STI diagnostic services differed significantly among the different counties in Lithuania. Several of the respondents analysed low numbers of samples each year, and overall the sampling size was extremely low, especially for C. trachomatis diagnostics. In Lithuania, optimisation of non-viral STI diagnostics as well as of epidemiological surveillance and management of STIs is crucial. It may be worth considering a decrease in the number of laboratories, with those remaining having the possibility of performing STI diagnostic services that are optimised, in concordance with international recommendations, standardised, and quality assured using systematic internal and external quality controls and systems. In addition, establishment of national inter-laboratory networks and reference centres for non-viral STIs is recommended.

Image Analysis for Ultrasound Quality Assurance

2021 ◽  
pp. 016173462199233
Author(s):  
Majed H. Aljahdali ◽  
Alexander Woodman ◽  
Lamiaa Al-Jamea ◽  
Saeed M. Albatati ◽  
Chris Williams
Keyword(s):  
Image Processing ◽  
Quality Assurance ◽  
Ultrasound Transducers ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Accurate Analysis ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Time Required ◽  
Periodic Evaluation ◽  
Powerful Mechanism

The quality assurance (QA) of ultrasound transducers is often identified as an area requiring continuous development in terms of the tools available to users. Periodic evaluation of the transducers as part of the QA protocol is important, since the quality of the diagnostics. Some of the key criteria determining the process of developing a QA protocol include the complexity of setup, the time required, accuracy, and potential automation to achieve scale. For the current study, a total of eight different ultrasound machines (12 transducers) with linear transducers were obtained separately. The results from these 12 transducers were used to validate the protocol. WAD-QC was used as part of this study to assess in-air reverberation patterns obtained from ultrasound transducers. Initially, three in-air reverberation images obtained from normal transducers and three obtained from defective transducers were used to calculate the uniformity parameters. The results were applied to 12 other images obtained from independent sources. Image processing results with WAD-QC were verified with imageJ. A comparison of raw data for uniformity showed consistency, and using controls based on mean absolute deviation yielded identical results. WAD-QC can be considered as a powerful mechanism for quick, efficient, and accurate analysis of in-air reverberation patterns obtained from ultrasound transducers.

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