scholarly journals How Important Are Inflation Expectations for the Nominal Yield Curve?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Gomez-Cram ◽  
Amir Yaron
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Bond Risk

Abstract Macrofinance term structure models rely too heavily on the volatility of expected inflation news as a source for variations in nominal bond yield shocks. We develop and estimate a model featuring inflation nonneutrality and preference shocks. The stochastic volatility of inflation and consumption govern bond risk premiums movements, whereas preference shocks generate fluctuations in real rates. The model accounts for key bond market features without resorting to an overly dominating expected inflation channel. The estimation shows that preference shocks are strongly negatively correlated with market distress factors and that real rate news is the dominant driver of nominal yield shocks.

scholarly journals Accounting for Low Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence from Canada

2020 ◽  
pp. 1.000-72.000
Author(s):  
Jens H. E. Christensen ◽  
◽  
Glenn D. Rudebusch ◽  
Patrick J. Shultz ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Sovereign Credit Risk ◽  
Debt Market

In recent decades, long-term interest rates around the world have fallen to historic lows. We examine this decline using a dynamic term structure model of Canadian nominal and real yields with adjustments for term, liquidity, and inflation risk premiums. Canada provides a useful case study that has been little examined despite its established indexed debt market, negligible distortions from monetary quantitative easing or the zero lower bound, and no sovereign credit risk. We find that since 2000, the steady-state real interest rate has fallen by more than 2 percentage points, long-term inflation expectations have edged down, and real bond and inflation risk premiums have fluctuated but shown little longer-run trend. Therefore, the drop in the equilibrium real rate appears largely to account for the lower new normal in interest rates.

Modeling the green bond yield on bond offering

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 2858-2878
Author(s):  
M.I. Emets
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Bond Pricing ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Fair Price ◽  
Lower Yield ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
Bond Yield

Subject. The article addresses the green bond pricing as compared to bonds other than green ones. Objectives. The aims are to determine how the fact that a bond is identified as a green one, the issue amount, and the availability of third-party verification, influence the yield to maturity; to make recommendations on effective green bond pricing. Methods. The study employs econometric testing of hypotheses, using the multiple linear regression. The sample includes 318 green and 1695 conventional bonds. Results. Green bonds have a lower yield to maturity in comparison with conventional bonds. The yield to maturity of green bonds with third-party verification is lower, as contrasted with green bonds without verification. Conclusions. The next step in the green bond market development is creating a benchmark yield curve for sovereign green bonds, with parallel issuance of conventional, non-green bonds. The yield curve is crucial for effective bond pricing. Two yield curves, i.e. for green and non-green bonds, will enable investors to estimate the fair price on issuance, as well as to define, if there is a difference in pricing.

scholarly journals Long Forward Probabilities, Recovery, and the Term Structure of Bond Risk Premiums

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (12) ◽  
pp. 4863-4883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Likuan Qin ◽  
Vadim Linetsky ◽  
Yutian Nie
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Bond Risk

Bond Risk Premiums with Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Bianchi ◽  
Matthias Büchner ◽  
Andrea Tamoni
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Yield Information ◽  
Bond Return ◽  
Bond Risk

Abstract We show that machine learning methods, in particular, extreme trees and neural networks (NNs), provide strong statistical evidence in favor of bond return predictability. NN forecasts based on macroeconomic and yield information translate into economic gains that are larger than those obtained using yields alone. Interestingly, the nature of unspanned factors changes along the yield curve: stock- and labor-market-related variables are more relevant for short-term maturities, whereas output and income variables matter more for longer maturities. Finally, NN forecasts correlate with proxies for time-varying risk aversion and uncertainty, lending support to models featuring both channels.

scholarly journals Estimating the Monetary Policy Measures of Japan in Shadow/ZLB Term Structure Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Rui WANG
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Structure Model ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Public Expectation ◽  
Policy Measures

In this paper, we follow the estimation methodology proposed by Krippner (2015) and use Japanese government bond yield curve data to estimate a shadow/ZLB term structure model. This model provides three estimated monetary policy measures, SSR, ETZ and EMS, which can be used to gauge the stance of monetary in a consistent way in both ZLB and non-ZLB environment. Japan has experienced a long period of the ZLB since 1999. The policy rate has already lost its function as an appropriate quantitative measure of monetary policy. The SSR estimated from the shadow/ZLB term structure model can evolve to negative level in the ZLB environment and provide consistent view of the stance of monetary policy as the positive short policy interest rate dose in the normal non-ZLB environment. The ETZ answers the question that how long the short interest rate will be expected to be restricted by the ZLB, which can be useful for the central bank as a reference for exit strategy of unconventional monetary easing or forward guidance on public expectation formation. The EMS measures the stance of monetary policy, relatively tight or relatively loose, in a consistent and comparable way under both ZLB and non-ZLB environment. The analysis shows that all three measures exhibit very good traceability of monetary policy in Japan, which can also be used as the proxy variables for the stance of monetary policy in other econometric procedures for policy evaluation.

scholarly journals Central Bank Credibility During COVID-19: Evidence from Japan

2021 ◽  
pp. 01-38
Author(s):  
Jens H. E. Christensen ◽  
◽  
Mark M. Spiegel ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Free Term ◽  
Structure Model ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Bank Credibility

Japanese realized and expected inflation has been below the Bank of Japan’s two percent target for many years. We use the exogenous COVID-19 pandemic shock to examine the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy responses for elevating inflation expectations from an arbitrage-free term structure model of nominal and real yields. We find that monetary and fiscal policy announcements during this period failed to lift inflation expectations, which instead declined notably and are projected to only slowly revert back to levels far below the announced target. Hence, our results illustrate the challenges faced in raising well-anchored low inflation expectations.

A Consumption Based Term Structure Model w ith Habit Utility

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 484-496
Author(s):  
Jun Lou ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Bond Risk Premia ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Bond Risk

This paper proposes a term structure of interest rates model that modifies and extends the Campbell and Cochrane (1999) surplus consumption framework. The distinguishing contributions are tractable, continuous-time analytical solutions for the term structure of interest rate generating a realistic upward sloping yield curve. Despite the focus on the term structure, the model matches plausible equity quantities. For the interest rate, the model is able to account for the moments of bond yields at numerous maturities and produce countercyclical bond risk premia as seen in the data. Moreover, the model captures reasonable time series fluctuation on real interest rates. However, the model has difficulties reproducing empirical deviations from the expectations hypothesis.

Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information

2019 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
pp. 1940001
Author(s):  
Rui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Bond Risk Premia ◽  
Macroeconomic Information ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Bond Risk ◽  
Macro Finance

I provide evidence on the existence of unspanned macro risk. I investigate the usefulness of unspanned macro information for forecasting bond risk premia in a macro-finance term structure model from the perspective of a bond investor. I account for model uncertainty by combining forecasts with and without unspanned output and inflation risks optimally from the forecaster’s objective. Incorporating macro information generates significant gains in forecasting bond risk premia relative to yield curve information at long forecast horizons, especially when allowing for time-varying combination weight. These gains in predictive accuracy significantly improve investor utility.

scholarly journals Some Lessons from the Yield Curve

1995 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 129-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Y Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Expectation Hypothesis ◽  
Maturity Structure ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The U.S

This paper reviews the literature on the relation between short- and long-term interest rates. It summarizes the mixed evidence on the expectation hypothesis of the term structure: when long rates are high relative to short rates, short rates tend to rise as implied by the expectations hypothesis, but long rates tend to fall, which is contrary to the expectations hypothesis. The paper discusses the response of the U.S. bond market to shifts in monetary policy in the spring of 1994 and reviews the debate over the optimal maturity structure of the U.S. government debt.

scholarly journals Bond risk premia and the return forecasting factor

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustin Gutierrez ◽  
Constantino Hevia ◽  
Martin Sola
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Forward Rates ◽  
Bond Risk Premia ◽  
Bond Returns ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
Bond Risk ◽  
Better Than

Abstract The return forecasting factor is a linear combination of forward rates that seems to predict 1-year excess bond returns of bond of all maturities better than traditional measures obtained from the yield curve. If this single factor actually captures all the relevant fluctuations in bond risk premia, then it should also summarize all the economically relevant variations in excess returns considering different holding periods. We find that it does not. We conclude that including the return forecasting factor as the main driver of risk premia in a term structure model, as has been suggested, is not supported by the data.

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