scholarly journals Financial Media, Price Discovery, and Merger Arbitrage

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias M M Buehlmaier ◽  
Josef Zechner
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Computational Linguistics ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Yield Spreads ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Media ◽  
Financial Media ◽  
Merger Arbitrage

Abstract Using merger announcements and applying methods from computational linguistics we find strong evidence that stock prices underreact to information in financial media. A one standard deviation increase in the media-implied probability of merger completion increases the subsequent 12-day return of a long-short merger strategy by 1.2 percentage points. Filtering out the 28% of announced deals with the lowest media-implied completion probability increases the annualized alpha from merger arbitrage by 9.3 percentage points. Our results are particularly pronounced when high-yield spreads are large and on days when only few merger deals are announced.

scholarly journals Banking and Industrialization

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1753-1796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Heblich ◽  
Alex Trew
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Industrial Employment ◽  
Employment Share ◽  
Capital Intensive ◽  
Employment Data

AbstractWe establish a causal role for banking access in the spread of the Industrial Revolution over the period 1817–1881 by exploiting unique employment data from 10,528 parishes across England and Wales and a novel instrument. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in 1817 finance employment increases annualized industrial employment growth by 0.93 percentage points. We establish the role of structural transformation as an underlying growth mechanism and show that banking access: (i) increases the industrial employment share; (ii) stimulates urbanization; and (iii) fosters inter-industry transition to high TFP, intermediate and capital-intensive sub-sectors.

scholarly journals Anxiety increases the willingness to be exposed to COVID-19 risk among young adults in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Etilé ◽  
Pierre-Yves Geoffard
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Wire

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak has generated significant uncertainty about the future, especially for young adults. Health and economic threats, as well as more diffuse concerns about the consequences of COVID-19, can trigger feelings of anxiety, leading individuals to adopt uncertainty-reducing behaviours. We tested whether anxiety was associated with an increase in willingness to be exposed to the risk of COVID-19 infection (WiRE) using an online survey administered to 3,110 French individuals aged between 18 and 35 years old during the lockdown period (April 2020). Overall, 56.5% of the sample declared a positive WiRE. Unemployment was associated with a higher WiRE (+8.2 percentage points (pp); 95% CI +0.9-15.4 pp). One standard deviation increases in income (+1160€) and psychological state anxiety raised the WiRE by +2.7 pp (95% CI: +1.1-4.4 pp) and +3.9 pp (95% CI: +1.6-6.2 pp), respectively. A one standard deviation increase in perceived hospitalisation risk was associated with a -4.1 pp (95% CI: -6.2-2.1 pp) decrease in the WiRE. Overall, our results suggest that both the prospect of economic losses and psychological anxiety can undermine young adults’ adherence to physical distancing recommendations. Public policies targeting young adults must consider both their economic situation and their mental health, and they must use uncertainty-reducing communication strategies.

scholarly journals Pandemics and protectionism: evidence from the “Spanish” flu

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Boberg-Fazlic ◽  
Markus Lampe ◽  
Maja Uhre Pedersen ◽  
Paul Sharp
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
World War ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The First World War ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First World

AbstractThe impact of COVID-19 on recent tendencies towards international isolationism has been much speculated on but remains to be seen. We suggest that valuable evidence can be gleaned from the “Spanish” flu of 1918–20. It is well-known that the world fell into a protectionist spiral following the First World War, but scholars have almost exclusively ignored the impact of the pandemic. We employ a difference-in-differences strategy and find that the flu had a significant impact on trade policy, independent of the war. In our preferred specification, a one standard deviation increase in excess deaths during the outbreak implied 0.022 percentage points higher tariffs subsequently, corresponding to an increase of one third of a standard deviation in tariffs. Health policy should aim to avoid the experience of the interwar period and consider the international macroeconomic impact of measures (not) taken.

scholarly journals Anxiety increases the willingness to be exposed to COVID-19 risk among young adults in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Etilé ◽  
Pierre-Yves Geoffard
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Wire

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak has generated significant uncertainty about the future, especially for young adults. Health and economic threats, as well as more diffuse concerns about the consequences of COVID-19, can trigger feelings of anxiety, leading individuals to adopt uncertainty-reducing behaviours. We tested whether anxiety was associated with an increase in willingness to be exposed to the risk of COVID-19 infection (WiRE) using an online survey administered to 3,110 French individuals aged between 18 and 35 years old during the lockdown period (April 2020). Overall, 56.5% of the sample declared a positive WiRE. Unemployment was associated with a higher WiRE (+8.2 percentage points (pp); 95% CI +0.9-15.4 pp). One standard deviation increases in income (+1160€) and psychological state anxiety raised the WiRE by +2.7 pp (95% CI: +1.1-4.4 pp) and +3.9 pp (95% CI: +1.6-6.2 pp),respectively. A one standard deviation increase in perceived hospitalisation risk was associated with a -4.1 pp (95% CI: -6.2-2.1 pp) decrease in the WiRE. Overall, our results suggest that both the prospect of economic losses and psychological anxiety can undermine young adults’ adherence to physical distancing recommendations. Public policies targeting young adults must consider both their economic situation and their mental health, and they must use uncertaintyreducing communication strategies.

scholarly journals The sooner the better? Anxiety and deliberate exposure to COVID-19 risk among young adults in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Etilé ◽  
Pierre-Yves Geoffard
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Wire

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak has generated significant uncertainty about the future, especially for young adults. Health and economic threats, as well as more diffuse concerns about the consequences of COVID-19, can trigger feelings of anxiety, leading individuals to adopt uncertainty-reducing behaviours. We tested whether anxiety was associated with an increase in willingness to be exposed to the risk of COVID-19 infection (WiRE) using an online survey administered to 3,110 French individuals aged between 18 and 35 years old during the lockdown period (April 2020). Overall, 56.5% of the sample declared a positive WiRE. Unemployment was associated with a higher WiRE (+8.2 percentage points (pp); 95% CI +0.9-15.4 pp). One standard deviation increases in income (+1160€) and psychological state anxiety raised the WiRE by +2.7 pp (95% CI: +1.1-4.4 pp) and +3.9 pp (95% CI: +1.6-6.2 pp), respectively. A one standard deviation increase in perceived hospitalisation risk was associated with a -4.1 pp (95% CI: -6.2-2.1 pp) decrease in the WiRE. Overall, our results suggest that both the prospect of economic losses and psychological anxiety can undermine young adults’ adherence to physical distancing recommendations. Public policies targeting young adults must consider both their economic situation and their mental health, and they must use uncertainty-reducing communication strategies.

scholarly journals Members of Parliament are Minimally Accountable for Their Issue Stances (and They Know It)

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
CHRIS HANRETTY ◽  
JONATHAN MELLON ◽  
PATRICK ENGLISH
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Individual Effects

For incumbents to be accountable for their issue stances, voters must sanction incumbents whose positions are “out of step” with their own. We test the electoral accountability of British legislators for their stance on Brexit. We find that there is very limited issue accountability. Individuals who disagreed with their representative’s stance on Brexit were 3 percentage points less likely to vote for them. The aggregate consequences of these individual effects are limited. A one-standard-deviation increase in the proportion of constituents agreeing with their incumbent’s Brexit stance is associated with an increase of 0.53 percentage points in incumbent vote share. These effects are one and a half times larger when the main challenger has a different Brexit stance to the incumbent. A follow-up survey of Members of Parliament (MPs) shows that MPs’ estimates of the effects of congruence are similar in magnitude. Our findings suggest that issue accountability is conditional in nature and limited in magnitude even for an issue such as Brexit, which should be maximally amenable to such effects.

scholarly journals ANXIETY INCREASES THE WILLINGNESS TO BE EXPOSED TO COVID-19 RISK AMONG YOUNG ADULTS IN FRANCE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Etilé ◽  
Pierre-Yves Geoffard
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Wire

The COVID-19 outbreak has generated significant uncertainty about the future, especially for young adults. Health and economic threats, as well as more diffuse concerns about the consequences of COVID-19, can trigger feelings of anxiety, leading individuals to adopt uncertainty-reducing behaviours. We tested whether anxiety was associated with an increase in willingness to be exposed to the risk of COVID-19 infection (WiRE) using an online survey administered to 3,110 French individuals aged between 18 and 35 years old during the lockdown period (April 2020). Overall, 56.5% of the sample declared a positive WiRE. Unemployment was associated with a higher WiRE (+8.2 percentage points (pp); 95% CI +0.9-15.4 pp). One standard deviation increases in income (+1160€) and psychological state anxiety raised the WiRE by +2.7 pp (95% CI: +1.1-4.4 pp) and +3.9 pp (95% CI: +1.6-6.2 pp),respectively. A one standard deviation increase in perceived hospitalisation risk was associated with a -4.1 pp (95% CI: -6.2-2.1 pp) decrease in the WiRE. Overall, our results suggest that both the prospect of economic losses and psychological anxiety can undermine young adults’ adherence to physical distancing recommendations. Public policies targeting young adults must consider both their economic situation and their mental health, and they must use uncertainty-reducing communication strategies.

scholarly journals Pharmacogenetic Polygenic Risk Score for Bronchodilator Response in Children and Adolescents with Asthma: Proof-of-Concept

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Joanne E. Sordillo ◽  
Sharon M. Lutz ◽  
Michael J. McGeachie ◽  
Jessica Lasky-Su ◽  
Scott T. Weiss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Association Studies ◽  
Polygenic Risk Score ◽  
Genome Wide Association Studies ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Bronchodilator Response ◽  
Children With Asthma

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of response to asthma medications have primarily focused on Caucasian populations, with findings that may not be generalizable to minority populations. We derived a polygenic risk score (PRS) for response to albuterol as measured by bronchodilator response (BDR), and examined the PRS in a cohort of Hispanic school-aged children with asthma. We leveraged a published GWAS of BDR to identify relevant genetic variants, and ranked the top variants according to their Combined Annotation Dependent Depletion (CADD) scores. Variants with CADD scores greater than 10 were used to compute the PRS. Once we derived the PRS, we determined the association of the PRS with BDR in a cohort of Hispanic children with asthma (the Genetics of Asthma in Costa Rica Study (GACRS)) in adjusted linear regression models. Mean BDR in GACRS participants was5.6% with a standard deviation of 10.2%. We observed a 0.63% decrease in BDR in response to albuterol for a standard deviation increase in the PRS (p = 0.05). We also observed decreased odds of a BDR response at or above the 12% threshold for a one standard deviation increase in the PRS (OR = 0.80 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.95)). Our findings show that combining variants from a pharmacogenetic GWAS into a PRS may be useful for predicting medication response in asthma.

scholarly journals Atrial fibrillation progression risk factors and associated cardiovascular outcome in well-phenotyped patients: data from the AF-RISK study

EP Europace ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 352-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruben R De With ◽  
Ernaldo G Marcos ◽  
Elton A M P Dudink ◽  
Henri M Spronk ◽  
Harry J G M Crijns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Left Atrial ◽  
Left Atrial Volume ◽  
Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor 1 ◽  
Atrial Volume ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Recent Onset ◽  
Pai 1

Abstract Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a progressive disease, but identifying patients at risk for AF progression is challenging. We aimed to identify factors associated with AF progression. Methods and results Atrial fibrillation progression was assessed in 392 patients with recent-onset paroxysmal or persistent AF included in the prospective, observational, multicentre identification of a risk profile to guide atrial fibrillation (AF-RISK) study. Progression of AF was assessed by Holter monitoring and 2-week event recorder at baseline and 1-year follow-up. AF progression was defined as: (i) doubling in AF burden at 1 year compared to baseline with a minimum AF burden of 10% in paroxysmal AF; or (ii) transition from paroxysmal to persistent or permanent AF; or (iii) persistent to permanent AF. Age was 60 ± 11 years, 62% were men, and 83% had paroxysmal AF. At 1 year, 52 (13%) had AF progression (11% in paroxysmal; 26% in persistent AF). Multivariable logistic regression showed that left atrial volume [odds ratio (OR) per 10 mL 1.251, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.078–1.450; P < 0.001], N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; OR per standard deviation increase 1.583, 95% CI 1.099–2.281; P = 0.014), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1; OR per standard deviation increase 0.660, 95% CI 0.472–0.921; P = 0.015) were associated with AF progression. In an additional follow-up of 1.9 (0.9–3.3) years patients with AF progression developed more cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality (12.4%/year vs. 2.3%/year, P < 0.001). Conclusion Atrial fibrillation progression occurred in 13% of patients with recent-onset AF during 1-year follow-up. Left atrial volume, NT-proBNP, and PAI-1 were associated with AF progression. Patients with AF progression had a higher event rate. Trial registration number Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01510210.

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