scholarly journals Members of Parliament are Minimally Accountable for Their Issue Stances (and They Know It)

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
CHRIS HANRETTY ◽  
JONATHAN MELLON ◽  
PATRICK ENGLISH
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Individual Effects

For incumbents to be accountable for their issue stances, voters must sanction incumbents whose positions are “out of step” with their own. We test the electoral accountability of British legislators for their stance on Brexit. We find that there is very limited issue accountability. Individuals who disagreed with their representative’s stance on Brexit were 3 percentage points less likely to vote for them. The aggregate consequences of these individual effects are limited. A one-standard-deviation increase in the proportion of constituents agreeing with their incumbent’s Brexit stance is associated with an increase of 0.53 percentage points in incumbent vote share. These effects are one and a half times larger when the main challenger has a different Brexit stance to the incumbent. A follow-up survey of Members of Parliament (MPs) shows that MPs’ estimates of the effects of congruence are similar in magnitude. Our findings suggest that issue accountability is conditional in nature and limited in magnitude even for an issue such as Brexit, which should be maximally amenable to such effects.

scholarly journals Atrial fibrillation progression risk factors and associated cardiovascular outcome in well-phenotyped patients: data from the AF-RISK study

EP Europace ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 352-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruben R De With ◽  
Ernaldo G Marcos ◽  
Elton A M P Dudink ◽  
Henri M Spronk ◽  
Harry J G M Crijns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Left Atrial ◽  
Left Atrial Volume ◽  
Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor 1 ◽  
Atrial Volume ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Recent Onset ◽  
Pai 1

Abstract Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a progressive disease, but identifying patients at risk for AF progression is challenging. We aimed to identify factors associated with AF progression. Methods and results Atrial fibrillation progression was assessed in 392 patients with recent-onset paroxysmal or persistent AF included in the prospective, observational, multicentre identification of a risk profile to guide atrial fibrillation (AF-RISK) study. Progression of AF was assessed by Holter monitoring and 2-week event recorder at baseline and 1-year follow-up. AF progression was defined as: (i) doubling in AF burden at 1 year compared to baseline with a minimum AF burden of 10% in paroxysmal AF; or (ii) transition from paroxysmal to persistent or permanent AF; or (iii) persistent to permanent AF. Age was 60 ± 11 years, 62% were men, and 83% had paroxysmal AF. At 1 year, 52 (13%) had AF progression (11% in paroxysmal; 26% in persistent AF). Multivariable logistic regression showed that left atrial volume [odds ratio (OR) per 10 mL 1.251, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.078–1.450; P < 0.001], N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; OR per standard deviation increase 1.583, 95% CI 1.099–2.281; P = 0.014), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1; OR per standard deviation increase 0.660, 95% CI 0.472–0.921; P = 0.015) were associated with AF progression. In an additional follow-up of 1.9 (0.9–3.3) years patients with AF progression developed more cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality (12.4%/year vs. 2.3%/year, P < 0.001). Conclusion Atrial fibrillation progression occurred in 13% of patients with recent-onset AF during 1-year follow-up. Left atrial volume, NT-proBNP, and PAI-1 were associated with AF progression. Patients with AF progression had a higher event rate. Trial registration number Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01510210.

scholarly journals Banking and Industrialization

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1753-1796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Heblich ◽  
Alex Trew
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Employment Growth ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Industrial Employment ◽  
Employment Share ◽  
Capital Intensive ◽  
Employment Data

AbstractWe establish a causal role for banking access in the spread of the Industrial Revolution over the period 1817–1881 by exploiting unique employment data from 10,528 parishes across England and Wales and a novel instrument. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in 1817 finance employment increases annualized industrial employment growth by 0.93 percentage points. We establish the role of structural transformation as an underlying growth mechanism and show that banking access: (i) increases the industrial employment share; (ii) stimulates urbanization; and (iii) fosters inter-industry transition to high TFP, intermediate and capital-intensive sub-sectors.

Independent Candidates and Political Representation in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 678-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
SACHA KAPOOR ◽  
ARVIND MAGESAN
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
The Political ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Independent Candidates

We estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in India. To do this, we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process, changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties. A one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points, as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home. The vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points, as some existing voters switch who they vote for. Thus, independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share, decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points, and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic-party candidate. Altogether, the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government.

scholarly journals Are Loneliness and Social Isolation Associated with Quality of Life in Older Adults? Insights from Northern and Southern Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 8637
Author(s):  
Giorgi Beridze ◽  
Alba Ayala ◽  
Oscar Ribeiro ◽  
Gloria Fernández-Mayoralas ◽  
Carmen Rodríguez-Blázquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
The North ◽  
Health Aging ◽  
Context Specific

Purpose: Loneliness and social isolation have detrimental effects on health in old age; however, the prospective associations with quality of life (QoL) remain unclear. Furthermore, despite the existence of a European north-south gradient in the distribution of loneliness and social isolation, little is known whether the associations are context-specific. We investigated the relationships between loneliness, social isolation and QoL of older adults residing in the North (Sweden) and South (Spain) of Europe. Methods: Study sample consisted of 2995 Swedish and 4154 Spanish older adults who participated in waves six and seven of the Study on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Loneliness and social isolation were measured at the baseline, and QoL was measured at the baseline and follow-up using CASP-12. Prospective associations were assessed via multivariate linear regression. Results: In Sweden, subjects with higher vs. lower loneliness had 1.01 (95% CI: −1.55, −0.40) units lower QoL, while every standard deviation increase in social isolation was associated with a 0.27 (95% CI: −0.42, −0.09)-unit decrease in QoL. In Spain, every standard deviation increase in social isolation was associated with a 0.66 (95% CI: −1.11, −0.22)-unit decrease in QoL. The association was stronger in subjects aged ≤65 years old and those with no chronic diseases. The association with loneliness was not statistically significant in Spain. Conclusion: Loneliness and social isolation are prospectively associated with decreased QoL among older adults, yet the associations are contextually bound. Future interventions should target both exposures, among others, in order to increase QoL in this group.

scholarly journals Anxiety increases the willingness to be exposed to COVID-19 risk among young adults in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Etilé ◽  
Pierre-Yves Geoffard
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Wire

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak has generated significant uncertainty about the future, especially for young adults. Health and economic threats, as well as more diffuse concerns about the consequences of COVID-19, can trigger feelings of anxiety, leading individuals to adopt uncertainty-reducing behaviours. We tested whether anxiety was associated with an increase in willingness to be exposed to the risk of COVID-19 infection (WiRE) using an online survey administered to 3,110 French individuals aged between 18 and 35 years old during the lockdown period (April 2020). Overall, 56.5% of the sample declared a positive WiRE. Unemployment was associated with a higher WiRE (+8.2 percentage points (pp); 95% CI +0.9-15.4 pp). One standard deviation increases in income (+1160€) and psychological state anxiety raised the WiRE by +2.7 pp (95% CI: +1.1-4.4 pp) and +3.9 pp (95% CI: +1.6-6.2 pp), respectively. A one standard deviation increase in perceived hospitalisation risk was associated with a -4.1 pp (95% CI: -6.2-2.1 pp) decrease in the WiRE. Overall, our results suggest that both the prospect of economic losses and psychological anxiety can undermine young adults’ adherence to physical distancing recommendations. Public policies targeting young adults must consider both their economic situation and their mental health, and they must use uncertainty-reducing communication strategies.

scholarly journals Backing the Incumbent in Difficult Times: The Electoral Impact of Wildfires

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 469-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Ramos ◽  
Carlos Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Vote Share ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Municipal Election ◽  
Difficult Times

How do voters react to shocks that are outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying the electoral impact of wildfires in Spain in the period 1983-2014. This context allows us to study (a) the effects of fires at different locations and times, as opposed to a specific disaster; (b) the heterogeneous effects by time relative to election day; and (c) the effects on elections for all levels of government. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that an accidental fire up to 9 months ahead of a municipal election increases the incumbent party’s vote share by up to 8 percentage points, whereas a fire earlier in the term does not affect the election results. In addition, fires have no effect on regional or national elections. We discuss the possible mechanisms behind the results in light of the main theories on electoral accountability.

scholarly journals PREPRINT: Contact and Psychological Adjustment following Divorce/Separation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karey O'Hara ◽  
Austin Grinberg ◽  
Allison Mary Tackman ◽  
Matthias R. Mehl ◽  
David Sbarra
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Distress ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Psychological Adjustment ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Interpersonal Contact ◽  
Person Variable ◽  
Over Time

This study examined the association between naturalistically-observed in-person contact with one’s ex-partner and separation-related psychological distress (SRPD). 122 recently separated adults were assessed using the Electronically Activated Recorder (Mehl, 2017) on three occasions across five months. The association between in-person contact with one’s expartner, as a between-person variable, and concurrent SRPD was not reliably different from zero, nor was the time-varying effect of in-person contact. However, more frequent in-person contact with one’s ex-partner predicted higher SRPD two months later, above and beyond the variance accounted for by oncurrent in-person contact, demographic, relationship, and attachment factors. Follow-up analyses yielded that this effect was only present for people without children; a one standard deviation increase in in-person contact offset and slowed the predicted decline in SRPD over two months by 112%. Our discussion emphasizes new ways to think about the role of interpersonal contact in shaping adults’ psychological adjustment to separation over time.

scholarly journals Interplay Between Socioeconomic Markers and Genetic Predisposition to the Time to Dementia Onset

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 642-642
Author(s):  
Olesya Ajnakina ◽  
Dorina Cadar ◽  
Andrew Steptoe
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Genetic Factors ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Protective Mechanisms ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
English Longitudinal Study ◽  
Dementia Onset

Abstract Identifying interplay between socio-economic markers (education and financial resources) and genetic factors influencing time of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) diagnosis is of central relevance for the development of preventative strategies. Using 7039 individuals aged >50 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 320 (4.6%) of whom developed dementia over the 10-year follow-up, we investigated interactions between polygenic score for AD (AD-PGS) and socioeconomic markers on the timing of dementia or AD diagnosis. One standard deviation increase in AD-PGS was associated with an accelerated time to dementia onset by 4.8 months. Interactions between AD-PGS and lower wealth accelerated time to AD diagnosis by 24 months; an interaction between AD-PGS and years of schooling in decelerating time to AD by 3.0 months suggests education serves as protective mechanisms against AD diagnosis. Socio-economic markers are important factors influencing time to dementia and AD, particularly in those with polygenetic predisposition to AD.

scholarly journals Pandemics and protectionism: evidence from the “Spanish” flu

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Boberg-Fazlic ◽  
Markus Lampe ◽  
Maja Uhre Pedersen ◽  
Paul Sharp
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
World War ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The First World War ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First World

AbstractThe impact of COVID-19 on recent tendencies towards international isolationism has been much speculated on but remains to be seen. We suggest that valuable evidence can be gleaned from the “Spanish” flu of 1918–20. It is well-known that the world fell into a protectionist spiral following the First World War, but scholars have almost exclusively ignored the impact of the pandemic. We employ a difference-in-differences strategy and find that the flu had a significant impact on trade policy, independent of the war. In our preferred specification, a one standard deviation increase in excess deaths during the outbreak implied 0.022 percentage points higher tariffs subsequently, corresponding to an increase of one third of a standard deviation in tariffs. Health policy should aim to avoid the experience of the interwar period and consider the international macroeconomic impact of measures (not) taken.

scholarly journals Anxiety increases the willingness to be exposed to COVID-19 risk among young adults in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Etilé ◽  
Pierre-Yves Geoffard
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Wire

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak has generated significant uncertainty about the future, especially for young adults. Health and economic threats, as well as more diffuse concerns about the consequences of COVID-19, can trigger feelings of anxiety, leading individuals to adopt uncertainty-reducing behaviours. We tested whether anxiety was associated with an increase in willingness to be exposed to the risk of COVID-19 infection (WiRE) using an online survey administered to 3,110 French individuals aged between 18 and 35 years old during the lockdown period (April 2020). Overall, 56.5% of the sample declared a positive WiRE. Unemployment was associated with a higher WiRE (+8.2 percentage points (pp); 95% CI +0.9-15.4 pp). One standard deviation increases in income (+1160€) and psychological state anxiety raised the WiRE by +2.7 pp (95% CI: +1.1-4.4 pp) and +3.9 pp (95% CI: +1.6-6.2 pp),respectively. A one standard deviation increase in perceived hospitalisation risk was associated with a -4.1 pp (95% CI: -6.2-2.1 pp) decrease in the WiRE. Overall, our results suggest that both the prospect of economic losses and psychological anxiety can undermine young adults’ adherence to physical distancing recommendations. Public policies targeting young adults must consider both their economic situation and their mental health, and they must use uncertaintyreducing communication strategies.

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