scholarly journals Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 202266
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Proton Rahman ◽  
J. Concepción Loredo-Osti
Keyword(s):  
Newfoundland And Labrador ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Stochastic Epidemic ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Substantial Risk ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Plausible Reason

In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from 14 March to 26 June. We predicted possible outbreaks over nine weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40–70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after 4 May.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Proton Rahman ◽  
J. Concepción Loredo-Osti
Keyword(s):  
Newfoundland And Labrador ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Stochastic Epidemic ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Substantial Risk ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Plausible Reason

AbstractIn many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On May 4th, 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents were required to have exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from March 14th – May 4th. We then predicted possible outbreaks over 9 weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40% to 70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after May 4th.

scholarly journals The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Teslya ◽  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Thi Mui Pham ◽  
Daphne van Wees ◽  
Hendrik Nunner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Mass vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 are under way in many countries with the hope that increasing vaccination coverage will enable reducing current physical distancing measures. Compliance with these measures is waning, while more transmissible virus variants such as B.1.1.7 have emerged. Using SARS-CoV-2 transmission model we investigated the impact of the feedback between compliance, the incidence of infection, and vaccination coverage on the success of a vaccination programme in the population where waning of compliance depends on vaccine coverage. Our results suggest that the combination of fast waning compliance, slow vaccination rates, and more transmissible variants may result in a higher cumulative number of infections than in a situation without vaccination. These adverse effects can be alleviated if vaccinated individuals do not revert to pre-pandemic contact rates, and if non-vaccinated individuals remain compliant with physical distancing measures. Both require convincing, clear and appropriately targeted communication strategies by public health authorities.

scholarly journals The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Teslya ◽  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Thi Mui Pham ◽  
Daphne van Wees ◽  
Hendrik Nunner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Mass vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 are under way in many countries with the hope that increasing vaccination coverage will enable reducing current physical distancing measures. Compliance with these measures is waning, while more transmissible virus variants such as B.1.1.7 have emerged. Using SARS-CoV-2 transmission model we investigated the impact of the feedback between compliance, the incidence of infection, and vaccination coverage on the success of a vaccination programme in the population where waning of compliance depends on vaccine coverage. Our results suggest that the combination of fast waning compliance, slow vaccination rates, and more transmissible variants may result in a higher cumulative number of infections than in a situation without vaccination. These adverse effects can be alleviated if vaccinated individuals do not revert to pre-pandemic contact rates, and if non-vaccinated individuals remain compliant with physical distancing measures. Both require convincing, clear and appropriately targeted communication strategies by public health authorities.

scholarly journals XarxaSalut, network of municipalities for health, Valencia Region (Spain): policy process evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Peiró Pérez ◽  
E Pérez Sanz ◽  
E Legaz Sanchez ◽  
J Quiles Izquierdo ◽  
Grupo XarxaSalut
Keyword(s):  
Process Evaluation ◽  
Citizen Participation ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Common Language ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
The Impact

Abstract “XarxaSalut” started in 2017, with the municipalities that have taken the commitment to boost the Promotion of Health (HP) at the local level through community participation, intersectorality and equity perspective. The objective is to present a policy process evaluation (2'5 years) of the implementation of XarxaSalut. Different approaches have been used; a questionnaire addressed to the municipalities at the time of adhesion including data on intersectorality, participation, HP actions and open questions; description of instruments that Regional Public Health Authorities (RPHA) has mobilized and an analysis of barriers and strengths made by the coordination office. In 2017, 17 municipalities were joined, being 197 in February 2020 (70% of the population). 65% are in a process of an organizational change through the intersectoral, decision making and participative working group. 35% are doing analysis of determinants and /or health situation, assets maps and a prioritization of HP actions. The main barriers identified by municipalities are lack of economic and personal resources, and difficulties in achieve citizen participation. The main benefits were the optimization of resources, the exchange of experiences, training, or economic support from the RPHA. Some support instruments develop for RPHA are a collection of guides for community development, funds that the municipalities can apply to support actions related with training, HP action on vulnerable population, on asset maps, participation processes, vulnerable neighborhoods, etc.; Community actions have been included in the “Health Observatory” to give visibility and social support to XarxaSalut. Interdisciplinary training processes with health and municipal professionals have been made in order to develop a common language and strength the competences for HP. Lesson learned: The need to improve coordination and a common language between different types of participants and professionals Key messages The decision makers and professionals in the municipalities understand the impact in health of the policies developed at local level but needs guide and support to deal with it. The coordination between different administrations and primary health at local level and the misunderstandings about health and their determinants are the main aspect to reinforce.

scholarly journals Previous COVID-19 Infection and Antibody Levels After Vaccination

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamad Ali ◽  
Barrak Alahmad ◽  
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari ◽  
Abdulmohsen Alterki ◽  
Maha Hammad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neutralizing Antibodies ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Previous Infection ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Vaccine Shortages ◽  
Antibody Levels ◽  
Ig G

Background: The emergence of new COVID-19 variants of concern coupled with a global inequity in vaccine access and distribution has prompted many public health authorities to circumvent the vaccine shortages by altering vaccination protocols and prioritizing persons at high risk. Individuals with previous COVID-19 infection may not have been prioritized due to existing humoral immunity.Objective: We aimed to study the association between previous COVID-19 infection and antibody levels after COVID-19 vaccination.Methods: A serological analysis to measure SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin (Ig)G, IgA, and neutralizing antibodies was performed on individuals who received one or two doses of either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 vaccines in Kuwait. A Student t-test was performed and followed by generalized linear regression models adjusted for individual characteristics and comorbidities were fitted to compare the average levels of IgG and neutralizing antibodies between vaccinated individuals with and without previous COVID-19 infection.Results: A total of 1,025 individuals were recruited. The mean levels of IgG, IgA, and neutralizing antibodies were higher in vaccinated subjects with previous COVID-19 infections than in those without previous infection. Regression analysis showed a steeper slope of decline for IgG and neutralizing antibodies in vaccinated individuals without previous COVID-19 infection compared to those with previous COVID-19 infection.Conclusion: Previous COVID-19 infection appeared to elicit robust and sustained levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in vaccinated individuals. Given the inconsistent supply of COVID-19 vaccines in many countries due to inequities in global distribution, our results suggest that even greater efforts should be made to vaccinate more people, especially individuals without previous COVID-19 infection.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covid-19 Public Health Policies on Persons with Disability and their Caregivers in Malta

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-37
Author(s):  
Andrew Camilleri ◽  
Samantha Pace Gasan ◽  
Andrew Azzopardi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Essential Services ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a global health pandemic, due to the spread of a novel coronavirus, later named “Covid-19”. The spread of Covid-19 led to social isolation, distancing and a number of restrictive measures in Malta.  The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of Covid-19 and the subsequent restrictive measures on persons with disability and their caregivers and families in Malta. Using thematic analysis, the study found that a variety of impacts ranging from a sense of isolation, lack of essential services being provided, additional difficulties encountered at the place of work and education and measures that were not sufficiently tailored for persons with disability issued by public health authorities. Underlying the additional difficulties brought about by Covid-19, structural difficulties to access essential services as well as ignorance from policy makers and politicians and the added “vulnerable-ization” of persons with disabilities were found to be highly impacting factors that pervade the experience of persons with disabilities and their caregivers.

scholarly journals Geography of Microcephaly in the Zika Era: A Study of Newborn Distribution and Socio-environmental Indicators in Recife, Brazil, 2015-2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 133 (4) ◽  
pp. 461-471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariani Impieri Souza ◽  
Marília Teixeira de Siqueira ◽  
Ana Laura Carneiro Gomes Ferreira ◽  
Clarice Umbelino de Freitas ◽  
Anselmo César Vasconcelos Bezerra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Hospital ◽  
Incidence Rate Ratio ◽  
Mixed Race ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
The North ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Incidence Risk ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Larvae Density

Objectives: We assessed sociodemographic and health care factors of mothers and newborns during a 2015-2016 outbreak of microcephaly in Recife, Brazil, and we analyzed the spatial distribution and incidence risk of newborns with microcephaly in relation to socio-environmental indicators. Methods: We collected data from August 2015 through May 2016 from Brazil’s Live Birth Information System and Bulletin of Microcephaly Notification, and we geocoded the data by maternal residence. We constructed thematic maps of districts, according to socio-environmental and vector indicators. We identified spatial aggregates of newborns with microcephaly by using the Bernoulli model. We performed logistic regression analyses to compare the incidence risk of microcephaly within socio-environmental indicator groups. Results: We geocoded 17 990 of 19 554 (92.0%) live births in Recife, of which 202 (1.1%) newborns were classified as having microcephaly, based on a head circumference of ≥2 standard deviations below the mean. Larger proportions of newborns with microcephaly (compared with newborns without microcephaly) were born to mothers who delivered in a public hospital, did not attend college, were aged ≤19, or were black or mixed race. A higher risk of microcephaly (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 3.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.88-8.06) occurred in districts with the lowest (vs highest) Municipal Human Development Index (ie, an index that assesses longevity, education, and income). The risk of microcephaly was significantly higher where rates of larvae density (IRR = 2.31; 95% CI, 1.19-4.50) and larvae detection (IRR = 2.04; 95% CI, 1.05-4.00) were higher and rates of sewage system (IRR = 2.20; 95% CI, 1.16-4.18) and garbage collection (IRR = 1.96; 95% CI, 0.99-3.88) were lower. Newborns with microcephaly lived predominantly in the poorest areas and in a high-risk cluster (relative risk = 1.89, P = .01) in the north. Conclusions: The disproportionate incidence of microcephaly in newborns in poor areas of Recife reinforces the need for government and public health authorities to formulate policies that promote social equity and support for families and their children with microcephaly.

scholarly journals Geospatial Analysis and Mapping Strategies for Fine Grained and Detailed COVID-19 Data With Geographic Information Systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
ÁNGEL MIRAMONTES CARBALLADA ◽  
JOSE BALSA-BARREIRO
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Location ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Predictive Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The CoVID-19 pandemic is showing a dramatic impact across the world. To the tragedy of the loss of human lives, we must add the great uncertainty that the new coronavirus is causing to our lives. Governments and public health authorities must be able to respond this emergency by taking the appropriate decisions for minimizing the impact of the virus. In the absence of an immediate solution, governments have concentrated their efforts on adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions for restricting the mobility of people and reducing the social contact. Health authorities are publishing most of data for supporting their interventions and policies. The geographic location of the cases is a vital information with exceptional value for analysing the spatio-temporal behaviour of the virus, doing feasible to anticipate potential outbreaks and to elaborate predictive risk mapping. In fact, a great number of media reports, research papers, and web-browsers have presented the COVID-19 disease spreading by using maps. However, processing and visualization of this sort of data presents some aspects that must be carefully reviewed. Based on our experience with fine-grained and detailed data related to COVID-19 in a Spanish region, we present a bunch of mapping strategies and good practices using geospatial tools. The ultimate goal is create appropriate maps at any spatial scale while avoiding conflicts with data such as those related to patients’ privacy.

scholarly journals Recent national French food and nutrient intake data

1999 ◽  
Vol 81 (S1) ◽  
pp. S57-S59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Luc Volatier ◽  
Philippe Verger
Keyword(s):  
Saturated Fat ◽  
Dietary Guidelines ◽  
Fat Intake ◽  
Dietary Survey ◽  
The North ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Food And Nutrient Intake ◽  
Saturated Fat Intake

In France, the first national dietary survey, called ASPCC, was done in 1993–1994. According to this survey, the mean fat intake in France is rather high, both for men (37.7 %) and women (40 %). Saturated fat intake is above 15 % of energy. The intake of fruit and vegetables is particularly low for younger people and manual workers. Fruit intake is also lower for people from the north of the country. These data show the necessity of a targeted nutritional policy in France. Therefore, public health authorities are determining new dietary guidelines. The fact that people with unsatisfactory nutritional status are often not concerned with nutrition proves the importance of simple understandable food-based dietary guidelines.

scholarly journals Impact of data accuracy on the evaluation of COVID-19 mitigation policies

Data & Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Starnini ◽  
Alberto Aleta ◽  
Michele Tizzoni ◽  
Yamir Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Inaccurate Data ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The Social ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Extreme Care

Abstract Evaluating the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial to maximize the epidemic containment while minimizing the social and economic impact of these measures. However, this endeavor crucially relies on surveillance data publicly released by health authorities that can hide several limitations. In this article, we quantify the impact of inaccurate data on the estimation of the time-varying reproduction number $ R(t) $ , a pivotal quantity to gauge the variation of the transmissibility originated by the implementation of different NPIs. We focus on Italy and Spain, two European countries among the most severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. For these two countries, we highlight several biases of case-based surveillance data and temporal and spatial limitations in the data regarding the implementation of NPIs. We also demonstrate that a nonbiased estimation of $ R(t) $ could have had direct consequences on the decisions taken by the Spanish and Italian governments during the first wave of the pandemic. Our study shows that extreme care should be taken when evaluating intervention policies through publicly available epidemiological data and call for an improvement in the process of COVID-19 data collection, management, storage, and release. Better data policies will allow a more precise evaluation of the effects of containment measures, empowering public health authorities to take more informed decisions.

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