scholarly journals Impact of data accuracy on the evaluation of COVID-19 mitigation policies

Data & Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Starnini ◽  
Alberto Aleta ◽  
Michele Tizzoni ◽  
Yamir Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Inaccurate Data ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The Social ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Extreme Care

Abstract Evaluating the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial to maximize the epidemic containment while minimizing the social and economic impact of these measures. However, this endeavor crucially relies on surveillance data publicly released by health authorities that can hide several limitations. In this article, we quantify the impact of inaccurate data on the estimation of the time-varying reproduction number $ R(t) $ , a pivotal quantity to gauge the variation of the transmissibility originated by the implementation of different NPIs. We focus on Italy and Spain, two European countries among the most severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. For these two countries, we highlight several biases of case-based surveillance data and temporal and spatial limitations in the data regarding the implementation of NPIs. We also demonstrate that a nonbiased estimation of $ R(t) $ could have had direct consequences on the decisions taken by the Spanish and Italian governments during the first wave of the pandemic. Our study shows that extreme care should be taken when evaluating intervention policies through publicly available epidemiological data and call for an improvement in the process of COVID-19 data collection, management, storage, and release. Better data policies will allow a more precise evaluation of the effects of containment measures, empowering public health authorities to take more informed decisions.

scholarly journals Covid-19-induced fear in infoveillance studies: a meta-analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Styliani Geronikolou ◽  
George Chrousos
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
World Health ◽  
Forest Plot ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Prophylactic Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

UNSTRUCTURED The World Health Organization named the phenomenon of misinformation spread through the social media “infodemics”, and recognized the need to curb it. Misinformation infodemics undermine not only population safety, but also compliance to the suggestions/prophylactic measures recommended in pandemics. The aim of this study was to review the impact of social media on general population fear in “infoveillance” studies during the COVID-19 pandemic. PRISMA protocol was followed and six out of twenty studies were retrieved, meta-analyzed, and had their findings presented in the form of a Forest plot. The summary random and significant event rate was 0.298, 95% CI respectively 0.213 and 0.400, suggesting that social media-circulated misinformation related to COVID-19 triggered public fear and other manifestations. These findings merit special attention by public health authorities. Thus, “infodemiology” and Infoveillance are valid tools in the hands of epidemiologists to help prevent dissemination of false information, with potentially damaging effects.

scholarly journals Impact of the accuracy of case-based surveillance data on the estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Starnini ◽  
Alberto Aleta ◽  
Michele Tizzoni ◽  
Yamir Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Onset Time ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Inaccurate Data ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Estimation Of Time ◽  
Case Based

AbstractStudies aimed at characterizing the evolution of COVID-19 disease often rely on case-based surveillance data publicly released by health authorities, that can be incomplete and prone to errors. Here, we quantify the biases caused by the use of inaccurate data in the estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number R(t). By focusing on Italy and Spain, two of the hardest-hit countries in Europe and worldwide, we show that if the symptoms’ onset time-series is inferred from the notification date series, the R(t) curve cannot capture nor describe accurately the early dynamics of the epidemic. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the containment measures that were implemented, such as national lockdowns, can be properly evaluated only when R(t) is estimated using the real time-series of dates of symptoms’ onset. Our findings show that extreme care should be taken when a pivotal quantity like R(t) is used to make decisions and to evaluate different alternatives.

scholarly journals XarxaSalut, network of municipalities for health, Valencia Region (Spain): policy process evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Peiró Pérez ◽  
E Pérez Sanz ◽  
E Legaz Sanchez ◽  
J Quiles Izquierdo ◽  
Grupo XarxaSalut
Keyword(s):  
Process Evaluation ◽  
Citizen Participation ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Common Language ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
The Impact

Abstract “XarxaSalut” started in 2017, with the municipalities that have taken the commitment to boost the Promotion of Health (HP) at the local level through community participation, intersectorality and equity perspective. The objective is to present a policy process evaluation (2'5 years) of the implementation of XarxaSalut. Different approaches have been used; a questionnaire addressed to the municipalities at the time of adhesion including data on intersectorality, participation, HP actions and open questions; description of instruments that Regional Public Health Authorities (RPHA) has mobilized and an analysis of barriers and strengths made by the coordination office. In 2017, 17 municipalities were joined, being 197 in February 2020 (70% of the population). 65% are in a process of an organizational change through the intersectoral, decision making and participative working group. 35% are doing analysis of determinants and /or health situation, assets maps and a prioritization of HP actions. The main barriers identified by municipalities are lack of economic and personal resources, and difficulties in achieve citizen participation. The main benefits were the optimization of resources, the exchange of experiences, training, or economic support from the RPHA. Some support instruments develop for RPHA are a collection of guides for community development, funds that the municipalities can apply to support actions related with training, HP action on vulnerable population, on asset maps, participation processes, vulnerable neighborhoods, etc.; Community actions have been included in the “Health Observatory” to give visibility and social support to XarxaSalut. Interdisciplinary training processes with health and municipal professionals have been made in order to develop a common language and strength the competences for HP. Lesson learned: The need to improve coordination and a common language between different types of participants and professionals Key messages The decision makers and professionals in the municipalities understand the impact in health of the policies developed at local level but needs guide and support to deal with it. The coordination between different administrations and primary health at local level and the misunderstandings about health and their determinants are the main aspect to reinforce.

scholarly journals Laboratory-based surveillance for Cryptosporidium in France, 2006–2009

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (33) ◽  
Author(s):  
Collective The ANOFEL Cryptosporidium National Network
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
University Hospitals ◽  
National Network ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Voluntary Basis

In 2002, the French Food Safety Agency drew attention to the lack of information on the prevalence of human cryptosporidiosis in the country. Two years later, the ANOFEL Cryptosporidium National Network (ACNN) was set up to provide public health authorities with data on the incidence and epidemiology of human cryptosporidiosis in France. Constituted on a voluntary basis, ACNN includes 38 hospital parasitology laboratories (mainly in university hospitals). Each laboratory is engaged to notify new cases of confirmed human cryptosporidiosis, store specimens (e.g. stools, duodenal aspirates or biopsies) and related clinical and epidemiological data, using datasheet forms. From January 2006 to December 2009, 407 cryptosporidiosis cases were notified in France and 364 specimens were collected. Of the notified cases, 74 were children under four years of age, accounting for 18.2%. HIV-infected and immunocompetent patients represented 38.6% (n=157) and 28% (n=114) of cases, respectively. A marked seasonal pattern was observed each year, with increased number of cases in mid to late summer and the beginning of autumn. Genotyping of 345 isolates from 310 patients identified C. parvum in 168 (54.2%) cases, C. hominis in 113 (36.4%) and other species in 29 (9.4%), including C. felis (n=15), C. meleagridis (n=4), C. canis (n=4), Cryptosporidium chipmunk genotype (n=1), Cryptosporidium rabbit genotype (n=1) and new Cryptosporidium genotypes (n=4). These data represent the first multisite report of laboratory-confirmed cases of cryptosporidiosis in France.

scholarly journals The Impact of Covid-19 Public Health Policies on Persons with Disability and their Caregivers in Malta

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-37
Author(s):  
Andrew Camilleri ◽  
Samantha Pace Gasan ◽  
Andrew Azzopardi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Essential Services ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a global health pandemic, due to the spread of a novel coronavirus, later named “Covid-19”. The spread of Covid-19 led to social isolation, distancing and a number of restrictive measures in Malta.  The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of Covid-19 and the subsequent restrictive measures on persons with disability and their caregivers and families in Malta. Using thematic analysis, the study found that a variety of impacts ranging from a sense of isolation, lack of essential services being provided, additional difficulties encountered at the place of work and education and measures that were not sufficiently tailored for persons with disability issued by public health authorities. Underlying the additional difficulties brought about by Covid-19, structural difficulties to access essential services as well as ignorance from policy makers and politicians and the added “vulnerable-ization” of persons with disabilities were found to be highly impacting factors that pervade the experience of persons with disabilities and their caregivers.

scholarly journals Geospatial Analysis and Mapping Strategies for Fine Grained and Detailed COVID-19 Data With Geographic Information Systems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
ÁNGEL MIRAMONTES CARBALLADA ◽  
JOSE BALSA-BARREIRO
Keyword(s):  
Geographic Location ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Predictive Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The CoVID-19 pandemic is showing a dramatic impact across the world. To the tragedy of the loss of human lives, we must add the great uncertainty that the new coronavirus is causing to our lives. Governments and public health authorities must be able to respond this emergency by taking the appropriate decisions for minimizing the impact of the virus. In the absence of an immediate solution, governments have concentrated their efforts on adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions for restricting the mobility of people and reducing the social contact. Health authorities are publishing most of data for supporting their interventions and policies. The geographic location of the cases is a vital information with exceptional value for analysing the spatio-temporal behaviour of the virus, doing feasible to anticipate potential outbreaks and to elaborate predictive risk mapping. In fact, a great number of media reports, research papers, and web-browsers have presented the COVID-19 disease spreading by using maps. However, processing and visualization of this sort of data presents some aspects that must be carefully reviewed. Based on our experience with fine-grained and detailed data related to COVID-19 in a Spanish region, we present a bunch of mapping strategies and good practices using geospatial tools. The ultimate goal is create appropriate maps at any spatial scale while avoiding conflicts with data such as those related to patients’ privacy.

scholarly journals The importance of sustained compliance with physical distancing during COVID-19 vaccination rollout

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Teslya ◽  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Thi Mui Pham ◽  
Daphne van Wees ◽  
Hendrik Nunner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Mass vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 are under way in many countries with the hope that increasing vaccination coverage will enable reducing current physical distancing measures. Compliance with these measures is waning, while more transmissible virus variants such as B.1.1.7 have emerged. Using SARS-CoV-2 transmission model we investigated the impact of the feedback between compliance, the incidence of infection, and vaccination coverage on the success of a vaccination programme in the population where waning of compliance depends on vaccine coverage. Our results suggest that the combination of fast waning compliance, slow vaccination rates, and more transmissible variants may result in a higher cumulative number of infections than in a situation without vaccination. These adverse effects can be alleviated if vaccinated individuals do not revert to pre-pandemic contact rates, and if non-vaccinated individuals remain compliant with physical distancing measures. Both require convincing, clear and appropriately targeted communication strategies by public health authorities.

scholarly journals A data-driven model of the COVID-19 spread among interconnected populations: epidemiological and mobility aspects following the lockdown in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello ◽  
Federico Papa ◽  
Carmela Sinisgalli
Keyword(s):  
Group Structure ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Group Model ◽  
Disease Evolution ◽  
Analytical Stability ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Disease Diffusion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractAn epidemic multi-group model formed by interconnected SEIR-like structures is formulated and used for data fitting to gain insight into the COVID-19 dynamics and into the role of non-pharmaceutical control actions implemented to limit the infection spread since its outbreak in Italy. The single submodels provide a rather accurate description of the COVID-19 evolution in each subpopulation by an extended SEIR model including the class of asymptomatic infectives, which is recognized as a determinant for disease diffusion. The multi-group structure is specifically designed to investigate the effects of the inter-regional mobility restored at the end of the first strong lockdown in Italy (June 3, 2020). In its time-invariant version, the model is shown to enjoy some analytical stability properties which provide significant insights on the efficacy of the implemented control measurements. In order to highlight the impact of human mobility on the disease evolution in Italy between the first and second wave onset, the model is applied to fit real epidemiological data of three geographical macro-areas in the period March–October 2020, including the mass departure for summer holidays. The simulation results are in good agreement with the data, so that the model can represent a useful tool for predicting the effects of the combination of containment measures in triggering future pandemic scenarios. Particularly, the simulation shows that, although the unrestricted mobility alone appears to be insufficient to trigger the second wave, the human transfers were crucial to make uniform the spatial distribution of the infection throughout the country and, combined with the restart of the production, trade, and education activities, determined a time advance of the contagion increase since September 2020.

scholarly journals Examining trends in gun violence injuries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic across six trauma centers

2022 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. e000801
Author(s):  
Constance McGraw ◽  
Stephanie Jarvis ◽  
Matthew Carrick ◽  
Mark Lieser ◽  
Robert M Madayag ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Illness ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Trauma Centers ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Level I ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

ObjectivesThe onset of the national stay-at-home orders accompanied by a surge in firearm sales has elevated the concerns of clinicians and public health authorities. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of the stay-at-home orders among gunshot wound (GSW) trauma admissions.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study at six level I trauma centers across four states. Patients admitted after the onset of COVID-19 restrictions (March 16, 2020–June 30, 2020) were compared with those admitted during the same period in 2019. We compared (1) rate of patients with GSW and (2) characteristics of patients with GSW, by period using Χ2 tests or Fisher’s exact tests, as appropriate.ResultsThere were 6996 trauma admissions across the study period; 3707 (53%) in 2019 and 3289 (47%) in 2020. From 2019 to 2020, there was a significant increase in GSW admissions (4% vs. 6%, p=0.001); 4 weeks specifically had significant increases (March 16–March 23: 4%, April 1–April 8: 5%, April 9–April 16: 6%, and May 11–May 18: 5%). Of the 334 GSWs, there were significant increases in patients with mental illness (5% vs. 11%, p=0.03), alcohol use disorder (2% vs. 10%, p=0.003), substance use disorder (11% vs. 25%, p=0.001), and a significant decrease in mortality (14% vs. 7%, p=0.03) in 2020. No other significant differences between time periods were identified.ConclusionOur data suggest that trauma centers admitted significantly more patients with GSW following the national guidelines, including an increase in those with mental illness and substance use-related disorders. This could be attributable to the stay-at-home orders.Level of evidenceLevel III, retrospective study.

scholarly journals Predicting social distancing index during COVID-19 outbreak through online search engines trends

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. C. Lins-Filho ◽  
M. M. S. Araújo ◽  
T. S. Macêdo ◽  
A. K. A. Ferreira ◽  
M. C. F. Melo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Search Engines ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Online Databases ◽  
The Social ◽  
Spearman Correlation Test ◽  
Relative Search Volume ◽  
Available Information

SummaryOnline-available information has been considered an accessory tool to estimate epidemiology and collect data on diseases and population behavior patterns. This study aimed to explore the potential use of Google and YouTube relative search volume to predict social distancing index in Brazil during COVID-19 outbreak and verify the correlation between social distancing measures with the course of the epidemic. Data concerning the social distancing index, epidemiological data on COVID-19 in Brazil and the search engines trends for “Coronavirus” were retrieved from online databases. Multiple linear regression was performed and resulted in a statistically significant model evidencing that Google and YouTube relative search volumes are predictors of the social distancing index. The Spearman correlation test revealed a weak correlation between social distancing measures and the course of the COVID-19 epidemic. Health authorities can apply these data to define the proper timing and location for practicing appropriate risk communication strategies.

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