scholarly journals How range shifts induced by climate change affect neutral evolution

2009 ◽  
Vol 276 (1661) ◽  
pp. 1527-1534 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.J McInerny ◽  
J.R.G Turner ◽  
H.Y Wong ◽  
J.M.J Travis ◽  
T.G Benton
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Direct Consequence ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Neutral Evolution ◽  
Founder Effects ◽  
Range Limit ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Strategic Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Neutral Markers

We investigate neutral evolution during range shifts in a strategic model of a metapopulation occupying a climate gradient. Using heritable, neutral markers, we track the spatio-temporal fate of lineages. Owing to iterated founder effects (‘mutation surfing’), survival of lineages derived from the leading range limit is enhanced. At trailing limits, where habitat suitability decreases, survival is reduced (mutations ‘wipe out’). These processes alter (i) the spatial spread of mutations, (ii) origins of persisting mutations and (iii) the generation of diversity. We show that large changes in neutral evolution can be a direct consequence of range shifting.

scholarly journals Reconstructing the emergence of a lethal infectious disease of wildlife supports a key role for spread through translocations by humans

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1839) ◽  
pp. 20160952 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Price ◽  
Trenton W. J. Garner ◽  
Andrew A. Cunningham ◽  
Tom E. S. Langton ◽  
Richard A. Nichols
Keyword(s):  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Potential Control ◽  
Temporal Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Impact On Biodiversity ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Citizen Science Project

There have been few reconstructions of wildlife disease emergences, despite their extensive impact on biodiversity and human health. This is in large part attributable to the lack of structured and robust spatio-temporal datasets. We overcame logistical problems of obtaining suitable information by using data from a citizen science project and formulating spatio-temporal models of the spread of a wildlife pathogen (genus Ranavirus , infecting amphibians). We evaluated three main hypotheses for the rapid increase in disease reports in the UK: that outbreaks were being reported more frequently, that climate change had altered the interaction between hosts and a previously widespread pathogen, and that disease was emerging due to spatial spread of a novel pathogen. Our analysis characterized localized spread from nearby ponds, consistent with amphibian dispersal, but also revealed a highly significant trend for elevated rates of additional outbreaks in localities with higher human population density—pointing to human activities in also spreading the virus. Phylogenetic analyses of pathogen genomes support the inference of at least two independent introductions into the UK. Together these results point strongly to humans repeatedly translocating ranaviruses into the UK from other countries and between UK ponds, and therefore suggest potential control measures.

scholarly journals Using Moran’s I For Detection And Monitoring Of The Covid-19 Spreading Stage In Thailand During The Third Wave Of The Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 155-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parichat Wetchayont ◽  
Katawut Waiyasusri
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Difference

Spatial distribution and spreading patterns of COVID-19 in Thailand were investigated in this study for the 1 April – 23 July 2021 period by analyzing COVID-19 incidence’s spatial autocorrelation and clustering patterns in connection to population density, adult population, mean income, hospital beds, doctors and nurses. Clustering analysis indicated that Bangkok is a significant hotspot for incidence rates, whereas other cities across the region have been less affected. Bivariate Moran’s I showed a low relationship between COVID-19 incidences and the number of adults (Moran’s I = 0.1023- 0.1985), whereas a strong positive relationship was found between COVID-19 incidences and population density (Moran’s I = 0.2776-0.6022). Moreover, the difference Moran’s I value in each parameter demonstrated the transmission level of infectious COVID-19, particularly in the Early (first phase) and Spreading stages (second and third phases). Spatial association in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand was measured in this study, which is described as a spatio-temporal pattern. The results showed that all of the models indicate a significant positive spatial association of COVID-19 infections from around 10 April 2021. To avoid an exponential spread over Thailand, it was important to detect the spatial spread in the early stages. Finally, these findings could be used to create monitoring tools and policy prevention planning in future.

scholarly journals A small number of early introductions seeded widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Québec, Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen Lía Murall ◽  
Eric Fournier ◽  
Jose Hector Galvez ◽  
Arnaud N’Guessan ◽  
Sarah J. Reiling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Founder Effects ◽  
Canadian Province ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
Spring Break ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Pandemic Wave ◽  
Temporal Spread

AbstractUsing genomic epidemiology, we investigated the arrival of SARS-CoV-2 to Québec, the Canadian province most impacted by COVID-19, with >280,000 positive cases and >10,000 deaths in a population of 8.5 million as of March 1st, 2021. We report 2,921 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes in the context of >12,000 publicly available genomes sampled globally over the first pandemic wave (up to June 1st, 2020). By combining phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses with epidemiological data, we quantify the number of introduction events into Québec, identify their origins, and characterize the spatio-temporal spread of the virus. Conservatively, we estimated at least 500 independent introduction events, the majority of which happened from spring break until two weeks after the Canadian border closed for non-essential travel. Subsequent mass repatriations did not generate large transmission lineages (>50 cases), likely due to mandatory quarantine measures in place at the time. Consistent with common spring break and ‘snowbird’ destinations, most of the introductions were inferred to have originated from Europe via the Americas. Fewer than 100 viral introductions arrived during spring break, of which 5-10 led to the largest transmission lineages of the first wave (accounting for 36-58% of all sequenced infections). These successful viral transmission lineages dispersed widely across the province, consistent with founder effects and superspreading dynamics. Transmission lineage size was greatly reduced after March 11th, when a quarantine order for returning travelers was enacted. While this suggests the effectiveness of early public health measures, the biggest transmission lineages had already been ignited prior to this order. Combined, our results reinforce how, in the absence of tight travel restrictions or quarantine measures, fewer than 100 viral introductions in a week can ensure the establishment of extended transmission chains.

scholarly journals Stochastic Modelling of the Spatial Spread of Influenza in Germany

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiane Dargatz ◽  
Vera Georgescu ◽  
Leonhard Held
Keyword(s):  
Markov Random Fields ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Gaussian Markov Random Fields ◽  
Spatial Graphs ◽  
Geographical Epidemiology ◽  
Spatio Temporal

In geographical epidemiology, disease counts are typically available in discrete spatial units and at discrete time-points. For example, surveillance data on infectious diseases usually consists of weekly counts of new infections in pre-defined geographical areas. Similarly, but on a different timescale, cancer registries typically report yearly incidence or mortality counts in administrative regions.A major methodological challenge lies in building realistic models for spacetime interactions on discrete irregular spatial graphs. In this paper we will discuss an observation-driven approach, where past observed counts in neighboring areas enter directly as explanatory variables, in contrast to the parameterdriven approach through latent Gaussian Markov random fields (Rue and Held, 2005) with spatio-temporal structure. The main focus will lie on the demonstration of the spread of influenza in Germany, obtained through the design and simulation of a spatial extension of the classical SIR model (Hufnagel et al., 2004).

Testing Range-Limit Hypotheses Using Range-Wide Habitat Suitability and Occupancy for the Scarlet Monkeyflower (Erythranthe cardinalis)

2018 ◽  
Vol 191 (3) ◽  
pp. E76-E89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy L. Angert ◽  
Matthew Bayly ◽  
Seema N. Sheth ◽  
John R. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Range Limit ◽  
Testing Range

scholarly journals Partially observed epidemics in wildlife hosts: modelling an outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic, June 2013–2014

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (112) ◽  
pp. 20150676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinead E. Morris ◽  
Jonathan L. Zelner ◽  
Deborah A. Fauquier ◽  
Teresa K. Rowles ◽  
Patricia E. Rosel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Marine Mammals ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Seasonal Migration ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Statistical Framework ◽  
Dolphin Morbillivirus ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Morbilliviruses cause major mortality in marine mammals, but the dynamics of transmission and persistence are ill understood compared to terrestrial counterparts such as measles; this is especially true for epidemics in cetaceans. However, the recent outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean can provide new insights into the epidemiology and spatio-temporal spread of this pathogen. To deal with uncertainties surrounding the ecology of this system (only stranded animals were observed), we develop a statistical framework that can extract key information about the underlying transmission process given only sparse data. Our self-exciting Poisson process model suggests that individuals are infectious for at most 24 days and can transfer infection up to two latitude degrees (220 km) within this time. In addition, the effective reproduction number is generally below one, but reaches 2.6 during a period of heightened stranding numbers near Virginia Beach, Virginia, in summer 2013. Network analysis suggests local movements dominate spatial spread, with seasonal migration facilitating wider dissemination along the coast. Finally, a low virus transmission rate or high levels of pre-existing immunity can explain the lack of viral spread into the Gulf of Mexico. More generally, our approach illustrates novel methodologies for analysing very indirectly observed epidemics.

scholarly journals Interactive range‐limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts

2020 ◽  
Vol 89 (4) ◽  
pp. 940-954 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexej P. K. Sirén ◽  
Toni Lyn Morelli
Keyword(s):  
Range Shifts ◽  
Range Limit ◽  
Limit Theory

View from Vanishing Point

Mnemosyne ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 725-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.M. Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Vanishing Point ◽  
The Past ◽  
Epistemic Access ◽  
Strategic Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
And Control ◽  
Critical Moments

This paper explores the aspects of mortal temporal awareness which Eteocles reveals as he struggles with the paradox that we have epistemic access to the past but not to the future. His rejection of divine assistance and his attempt to shape strategy and control future events have particular resonance for contemporary Athens where control of muthos and kairos was increasingly viewed as key to determining the future of the polis. The Pindaric model of the myth in Pythian 8 bolsters oligarchic tradition, while Aeschylus suggests a new strategic model for the evolving democratic meta-city. Through analysis of critical moments, imagery and Aeschylus’ stylistic use of tense and mood, we see how Eteocles follows a linguistic trajectory which articulates his psychological journey and highlights the spatio-temporal dynamics of the play.

scholarly journals Dynamic spatio-temporal patterns of metapopulation occupancy in patchy habitats

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 201309
Author(s):  
L. E. Bertassello ◽  
E. Bertuzzo ◽  
G. Botter ◽  
J. W. Jawitz ◽  
A. F. Aubeneau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Patch Occupancy ◽  
Patchy Habitats ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Spatio-temporal dynamics in habitat suitability and connectivity among mosaics of heterogeneous wetlands are critical for biological diversity and species persistence in aquatic patchy landscapes. Despite the recognized importance of stochastic hydroclimatic forcing in driving wetlandscape hydrological dynamics, linking such effects to emergent dynamics of metapopulation poses significant challenges. To fill this gap, we propose here a dynamic stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM), which links parsimonious hydrological and ecological models to simulate spatio-temporal patterns in species occupancy in wetlandscapes. Our work aims to place ecological studies of patchy habitats into a proper hydrologic and climatic framework to improve the knowledge about metapopulation shifts in response to climate-driven changes in wetlandscapes. We applied the dynamic version of the SPOM (D-SPOM) framework in two wetlandscapes in the US with contrasting landscape and climate properties. Our results illustrate that explicit consideration of the temporal dimension proposed in the D-SPOM is important to interpret local- and landscape-scale patterns of habitat suitability and metapopulation occupancy. Our analyses show that spatio-temporal dynamics of patch suitability and accessibility, driven by the stochasticity in hydroclimatic forcing, influence metapopulation occupancy and the topological metrics of the emergent wetlandscape dispersal network. D-SPOM simulations also reveal that the extinction risk in dynamic wetlandscapes is exacerbated by extended dry periods when suitable habitat decreases, hence limiting successful patch colonization and exacerbating metapopulation extinction risks. The proposed framework is not restricted only to wetland studies but could also be applied to examine metapopulation dynamics in other types of patchy habitats subjected to stochastic external disturbances.

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