scholarly journals Population-level effects of suppressing fever

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1778) ◽  
pp. 20132570 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. D. Earn ◽  
Paul W. Andrews ◽  
Benjamin M. Bolker

Fever is commonly attenuated with antipyretic medication as a means to treat unpleasant symptoms of infectious diseases. We highlight a potentially important negative effect of fever suppression that becomes evident at the population level: reducing fever may increase transmission of associated infections. A higher transmission rate implies that a larger proportion of the population will be infected, so widespread antipyretic drug use is likely to lead to more illness and death than would be expected in a population that was not exposed to antipyretic pharmacotherapies. We assembled the published data available for estimating the magnitudes of these individual effects for seasonal influenza. While the data are incomplete and heterogeneous, they suggest that, overall, fever suppression increases the expected number of influenza cases and deaths in the US: for pandemic influenza with reproduction number , the estimated increase is 1% (95% CI: 0.0–2.7%), whereas for seasonal influenza with , the estimated increase is 5% (95% CI: 0.2–12.1%).

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (84) ◽  
pp. 20130298 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Yaari ◽  
G. Katriel ◽  
A. Huppert ◽  
J. B. Axelsen ◽  
L. Stone

Seasonal influenza appears as annual oscillations in temperate regions of the world, yet little is known as to what drives these annual outbreaks and what factors are responsible for their inter-annual variability. Recent studies suggest that weather variables, such as absolute humidity, are the key drivers of annual influenza outbreaks. The rapid, punctuated, antigenic evolution of the influenza virus is another major factor. We present a new framework for modelling seasonal influenza based on a discrete-time, age-of-infection, epidemic model, which allows the calculation of the model's likelihood function in closed form. This framework may be used to perform model inference and parameter estimation rigorously. The modelling approach allows us to fit 11 years of Israeli influenza data, with the best models fitting the data with unusually high correlations in which r > 0.9. We show that using actual weather to modulate influenza transmission rate gives better results than using the inter-annual means of the weather variables, providing strong support for the role of weather in shaping the dynamics of influenza. This conclusion remains valid even when incorporating a more realistic depiction of the decay of immunity at the population level, which allows for discrete changes in immunity from year to year.


J ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-100
Author(s):  
Nita H. Shah ◽  
Ankush H. Suthar ◽  
Ekta N. Jayswal ◽  
Ankit Sikarwar

In this article, a time-dependent susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is constructed to investigate the transmission rate of COVID-19 in various regions of India. The model included the fundamental parameters on which the transmission rate of the infection is dependent, like the population density, contact rate, recovery rate, and intensity of the infection in the respective region. Looking at the great diversity in different geographic locations in India, we determined to calculate the basic reproduction number for all Indian districts based on the COVID-19 data till 7 July 2020. By preparing district-wise spatial distribution maps with the help of ArcGIS 10.2, the model was employed to show the effect of complete lockdown on the transmission rate of the COVID-19 infection in Indian districts. Moreover, with the model's transformation to the fractional ordered dynamical system, we found that the nature of the proposed SIR model is different for the different order of the systems. The sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number is done graphically which forecasts the change in the transmission rate of COVID-19 infection with change in different parameters. In the numerical simulation section, oscillations and variations in the model compartments are shown for two different situations, with and without lockdown.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanmo Li ◽  
Mengyang Gu

AbstractThe COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by $$5\%$$ 5 % of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around $$39\%$$ 39 % (or 78 K, $$95\%$$ 95 % CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.


Author(s):  
Wendy Thompson ◽  
Leanne Teoh ◽  
Colin C. Hubbard ◽  
Fawziah Marra ◽  
David M. Patrick ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: Our objective was to compare patterns of dental antibiotic prescribing in Australia, England, and North America (United States and British Columbia, Canada). Design: Population-level analysis of antibiotic prescription. Setting: Outpatient prescribing by dentists in 2017. Participants: Patients receiving an antibiotic dispensed by an outpatient pharmacy. Methods: Prescription-based rates adjusted by population were compared overall and by antibiotic class. Contingency tables assessed differences in the proportion of antibiotic class by country. Results: In 2017, dentists in the United States had the highest antibiotic prescribing rate per 1,000 population and Australia had the lowest rate. The penicillin class, particularly amoxicillin, was the most frequently prescribed for all countries. The second most common agents prescribed were clindamycin in the United States and British Columbia (Canada) and metronidazole in Australia and England. Broad-spectrum agents, amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, and azithromycin were the highest in Australia and the United States, respectively. Conclusion: Extreme differences exist in antibiotics prescribed by dentists in Australia, England, the United States, and British Columbia. The United States had twice the antibiotic prescription rate of Australia and the most frequently prescribed antibiotic in the US was clindamycin. Significant opportunities exist for the global dental community to update their prescribing behavior relating to second-line agents for penicillin allergic patients and to contribute to international efforts addressing antibiotic resistance. Patient safety improvements will result from optimizing dental antibiotic prescribing, especially for antibiotics associated with resistance (broad-spectrum agents) or C. difficile (clindamycin). Dental antibiotic stewardship programs are urgently needed worldwide.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 275.2-276
Author(s):  
N. Fukui ◽  
P. G. Conaghan ◽  
K. Togo ◽  
N. Ebata ◽  
L. Abraham ◽  
...  

Background:Patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) who do not achieve adequate pain relief and functional improvement with a combination of non-pharmacologic and pharmacologic therapies are recommended an arthroplasty as an effective option to relieve severe pain and functional limitations. However, some patients are reluctant to undergo surgical interventions, and clinicians may choose to avoid or delay surgery due to safety risks and/or the financial cost. It is of interest to understand if the use and perception of surgery differs between countries, however, few published data exist.Objectives:To demonstrate how surgery and the use of surgical procedures differs across Japan, United States of America (US) and 5 major European countries (EU5) and to evaluate patient perception towards surgery.Methods:Data were drawn from the Adelphi OA Disease Specific Programme (2017-18), a point-in-time survey of primary care physicians (PCP), rheumatologists (rheums), orthopaedic surgeons (orthos) and their OA patients. Patients with physician-diagnosed knee OA were included and segmented into two categories: had previous surgery (PS) and never had surgery (NS). A Fisher’s exact test was performed on the two groups. Physicians reported on patient demographics; whether patients had undergone surgery; type of surgery; success of surgery; how success was defined; and reasons for wanting to delay surgery. Patients reported their willingness to undergo surgery; reasons for not wanting surgery; how successful their surgery was; and how they defined this success.Results:Physician/patient reported data were available for 302,230 (Japan), 527,283 (US) and 1487,726 (EU5) patients with diagnosed knee OA. Patients were categorised by their physicians as mild (40% Japan; 34% US; 24% EU5), moderate (49% Japan; 49% US; 56% EU5) or severe (9% Japan; 17% US; 19% EU5). Patients in Japan were more likely to be female (78% vs 54% US; 58% EU5), older (73 vs 65 US; 66 EU5) and have a lower BMI than patients in the US and EU5. Obesity and diabetes were much less prevalent among patients in Japan. One in ten patients in Japan had undergone a surgery (10%), far fewer than in the US (22%) or EU5 (17%). When surgery was performed, this was more likely to be a total joint replacement (TJR) in Japan, whereas in the EU and US, arthroscopic washout was more commonly performed.For over half of Japanese patients (56%), successful surgery was more likely to be defined as having no more pain (vs. 35% US; 14% EU5). Improved mobility and a reduction in pain were also commonly reported reasons. Physicians (in each region) were more likely to suggest pain reduction, rather than no pain, and improved mobility as markers of success. Patients in Japan were much more likely to say they would not agree to surgery if recommended by their doctor, or were unsure (84% vs. 68% US; 62% EU5). The main reason for patient reluctance in Japan was fear of surgery, whereas in the US and EU5 the main reason given was that surgery was not needed. This finding was also evident among physicians in Japan, who frequently reported that patient reluctance was a key reason for delaying surgery. Physicians in Japan, do however, report that patient request was one of their main triggers for recommending surgery (45% vs 20% US; 16% EU5).Conclusion:Although surgery can be an effective option for those with OA who have exhausted other treatment options, some patients are reluctant to undergo surgery out of fear, especially in Japan, possibly due to the higher patient age. Physicians aiming to delay surgery were driven by patient reluctance in Japan, whereas cost to patient was a bigger factor in the US and EU5. The higher level of TJR vs. other surgery options among patients in Japan may suggest physicians are looking for higher levels of efficacy.Disclosure of Interests:Naoshi Fukui Speakers bureau: Pfizer, Consultant of: Pfizer, Philip G Conaghan Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Novartis, Consultant of: AstraZeneca, BMS, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Flexion Therapeutics, Galapagos, Gilead, Novartis, Pfizer, Kanae Togo Shareholder of: Pfizer, Employee of: Pfizer, Nozomi Ebata Shareholder of: Pfizer, Employee of: Pfizer, Lucy Abraham Shareholder of: Pfizer, Employee of: Pfizer, James Jackson: None declared, Jessica Jackson: None declared, Mia Berry: None declared, Hemant Pandit Paid instructor for: Bristol Myers Squibb, Consultant of: Johnson and Johnson, Grant/research support from: GSK


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Abdul Kuddus ◽  
M. Mohiuddin ◽  
Azizur Rahman

AbstractAlthough the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) . This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{ R}}_{0}<1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 < 1 ) , and if greater than one $$(\mathrm{i}.\mathrm{e}. \, \, {\mathrm{R}}_{0}>1)$$ ( i . e . R 0 > 1 ) epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 . The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute $${\mathrm{R}}_{0}$$ R 0 and measles prevalence $$\left({\mathrm{I}}^{*}\right)$$ I ∗ with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate $$(\upbeta )$$ ( β ) had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh.


2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. Malone ◽  
Nevan G. Baldwin ◽  
Frank J. Tomecek ◽  
Christopher M. Boxell ◽  
Steven E. Gaede ◽  
...  

Object The authors report a series of 22 patients in whom major complications developed after cervical spinal manipulation therapy (CSMT). A second objective was to estimate the regional incidence of these complications and to compare it with the very low incidences reported in the literature. Methods During a 5-year period, practioners at a single group neurosurgical practice in Tulsa, Oklahoma, treated 22 patients, who were markedly worse during, or immediately after, CSMT. The details of these cases are reported. The 1995 US Government National Census was used to define the regional referral population for Tulsa. The published data regarding the incidence of serious CSMT-related complications and the rate of CSMTs undertaken nationally were used to estimate the expected number of CSMT-related complications in the authors' region. The number (22 cases) reported in this series was used to estimate the actual regional incidence. Complications in the series included radiculopathy (21 cases), myelopathy (11 cases), Brown–Séquard syndrome (two cases), and vertebral artery (VA) occlusion (one case). Twenty-one patients underwent surgery. Poor outcomes were observed in three, outcome was unchanged in one, and 17 improved. The number of patients in this series exceeded the expected number for the region. Conclusions Cervical spinal manipulation therapy may worsen preexisting cervical disc herniation or cause disc herniation resulting in radiculopathy, myelopathy, or VA compression. In cases of cervical spondylosis, CSMT may also worsen preexisting myelopathy or radiculopathy. Manipulation of the cervical spine may also be associated with higher complication rates than previously reported.


Circulation ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 133 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard ◽  
Piotr Bandosz ◽  
Colin D Rehm ◽  
Ashkan Afshin ◽  
Jose Penalvo ◽  
...  

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) accounts for over 800,000 US deaths annually, with substantial disparities by race. Poor diet is a leading CVD risk factor, including low intake of fruit and vegetable (F&V). Few data exist regarding the potential population level impact and effect on race disparities of policies aimed at increasing F&V intake. Aim: To estimate CVD mortality reductions, including by race, potentially achievable by price reduction and mass media campaign interventions in the US population up to 2030. Methods: We developed a US IMPACT Food Policy Model to compare three contrasting policies targeting F&V intake: A - a national mass media campaign (MMC); B and C - a universal F&V price reduction of 10 and 30% respectively. The MMC assumed unequal coverage by age, gender and race, and duration of either 1 or 15 years. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, SEER single year population estimates, the US Bureau 2012 National Population projections and NHANES. We used US population and CVD projections to 2030, F&V mortality effect sizes and best evidence effect sizes for each policy. We modelled cumulative deaths prevented or postponed and life years gained (LYG) by age, gender, race and CVD subtype from 2015 to 2030. Results were tested in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. Results: Scenario A (MMC) could result in 27,000 (95% CI: 21,000-33,000) to 85,000 (83,000-89,000) fewer deaths dependent upon media campaign duration (from 1 to 15 years), gaining up to 1,280,000 LYGs (1,250,000-1,320,000) by 2030. Approximately 62% of deaths prevented would be CHD; and 53% would be in men, with 20% being saved in year 1. Scenario B (10% price decrease) could prevent approximately 90,000 deaths (71,000-114,000) and gain 1,450,000 LYGs (1,180,000-1,740,000) by 2030. Scenario C (30% price decrease) could prevent some 270,000 deaths (215,000-338,000) by 2030, representing a 3.9% reduction in expected CVD mortality. Price reduction policies would have equitable effects in non-hispanic whites vs. blacks. In comparison, a MMC would be ~ 35% less effective in preventing CVD deaths in non-Hispanic blacks. Conclusions: Price reduction policies (10 or 30%) and a nationwide MMC would each effectively reduce US CVD mortality. A 30% price reduction policy would save most lives and do so most equitably. Deaths prevented via a MMC might reduce substantially after year 1 and also increase disparities. These results inform potential fiscal and population level strategies to reduce CVD mortality in the US.


Author(s):  
Stephanie C. Rutten-Ramos ◽  
Shabbir Simjee ◽  
Michelle S. Calvo-Lorenzo ◽  
Jason L. Bargen

Abstract OBJECTIVE To assess antibiotic use and other factors associated with death rates in beef feedlots in 3 regions of the US over a 10-year period. SAMPLE Data for 186,297 lots (groups) of finished cattle marketed between 2010 and 2019 were obtained from a database representing feedlots in the central, high, and north plains of the US. PROCEDURES Descriptive statistics were generated. Generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate lot death rates for each region, sex (steer or heifer), and cattle origin (Mexico or the US) combination. Death rate was calculated as the (number of deaths/number of cattle placed in the lot) × 100. Lot antibiotic use (TotalActiveMG/KGOut) was calculated as the total milligrams of active antibiotics assigned to the lot per live weight (in kilograms) of cattle marketed from the lot. Rate ratios were calculated to evaluate the respective associations between lot death rate and characteristics of cattle and antibiotic use. RESULTS Mean death rate increased during the 10-year period, peaking in 2018. Mean number of days on feed also increased over time. Mean TotalActiveMG/KGOut was greatest in 2014 and 2015, lowest in 2017, and moderated in 2018 and 2019. Death rate was positively associated with the number of days on feed and had a nonlinear association with TotalActiveMG/KGOut. Feeding medicated feed articles mitigated death rate. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested a balance between disease prevention and control in feedlots for cattle with various risk profiles. Additional data sources are needed to assess TotalActiveMG/KGOut across the cattle lifetime.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henri Froese ◽  
Angel G. A. Prempeh

Over the course of the coronavirus pandemic, it has become apparent that non-pharmaceutical interventions such as masks and social distancing are of great help in mitigating the transmission of airborne infectious diseases. Additionally, data from respiratory specimen analysis from the past year show that current mask mandates established for COVID-19 have inadvertently reduced the rates of other respiratory diseases, including influenza. Thus, the question arises as to whether comparatively mild measures should be kept in place after the pandemic to reduce the impact of influenza. In this study, we employed a series of differential equations to simulate past influenza seasons, assuming people wore face masks. This was achieved by introducing a variable to account for the efficacy and prevalence of masks and then analyzing its impact on influenza transmission rate in an SEIR model fit to the actual past seasons. We then compared influenza rates in this hypothetical scenario with the actual rates over the seasons. Our results show that several combinations of mask efficacy and prevalence can significantly reduce the burden of seasonal influenza. Particularly, our simulations suggest that a minority of individuals wearing masks greatly reduce the number of influenza infections. Considering the efficacy rates of masks and the relatively insignificant monetary cost, we highlight that it may be a viable alternative or complement to influenza vaccinations. We conclude with a brief discussion of our results and other practical aspects.


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