scholarly journals Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1894) ◽  
pp. 20182294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Goldstein ◽  
Jaewoo Park ◽  
Murali Haran ◽  
Andrew Liebhold ◽  
Ottar N. Bjørnstad

— The spread of invasive species can have far-reaching environmental and ecological consequences. Understanding invasion spread patterns and the underlying process driving invasions are key to predicting and managing invasions. — We combine a set of statistical methods in a novel way to characterize local spread properties and demonstrate their application using simulated and historical data on invasive insects. Our method uses a Gaussian process fit to the surface of waiting times to invasion in order to characterize the vector field of spread. — Using this method, we estimate with statistical uncertainties the speed and direction of spread at each location. Simulations from a stratified diffusion model verify the accuracy of our method. — We show how we may link local rates of spread to environmental covariates for two case studies: the spread of the gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar ), and hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae ) in North America. We provide an R-package that automates the calculations for any spatially referenced waiting time data.

2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Z Hayat ◽  
E Kinene ◽  
S Molloy

Abstract Introduction Reduction of waiting times is key to delivering high quality, efficient health care. Delays experienced by patients requiring radiographs in orthopaedic outpatient clinics are well recognised. Method To establish current patient and staff satisfaction, questionnaires were circulated over a two-week period. Waiting time data was retrospectively collected including appointment time, arrival time and the time at which radiographs were taken. Results 84% (n = 16) of radiographers believed patients would be dissatisfied. However, of the 296 patients questioned, 56% (n = 165) were satisfied. Most patients (89%) felt the waiting time should be under 30 minutes. Only 36% were seen in this time frame. There was moderate negative correlation (R=-0.5); higher waiting times led to increased dissatisfaction. Mean waiting time was 00:37 and the maximum 02:48. Key contributing factors included volume of patients, staff shortages (73.7%), equipment shortages (57.9%) and incorrectly filled request forms. Eight (42.1%) had felt unwell from work related stress. Conclusions A concerted effort is needed to improve staff and patient opinion. There is scope for change post COVID. Additional training and exploring ways to avoid overburdening the department would benefit. Numerous patients were open to different days or alternative sites. Funding requirements make updating equipment, expanding the department and recruiting more staff challenging.


2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 1435-1450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne K Eschtruth ◽  
Natalie L Cleavitt ◽  
John J Battles ◽  
Richard A Evans ◽  
Timothy J Fahey

Hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae Annand) infestations have resulted in the continuing decline of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière) throughout much of the eastern United States. In 1994 and 2003, we quantified the vegetation composition and structure of two hemlock ravines in the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. This is the first study to use pre-adelgid disturbance data, annual monitoring of infestation severity, and annual records of hemlock health to assess forest response to HWA infestation. In 2003, 25% of monitored hemlock trees were either dead or in severe decline. Measures of hemlock decline (crown vigor, transparency, density, and dieback) were correlated with HWA infestation severity and changes in light availability over the study period. Average percent total transmitted radiation more than doubled at these sites from 5.0% in 1994 to 11.7% in 2003. The total percent cover of vascular plants increased from 3.1% in 1994 to 11.3% in 2003. Species richness increased significantly, and more species were gained (53) than lost (19) from both ravine floras over the 9-year study period. Though exotic invasive plants were absent from these ravines in 1994, our 2003 resurvey found invasive plants in 35% of the permanent vegetation plots.


Insects ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Ellison ◽  
David Orwig ◽  
Matthew Fitzpatrick ◽  
Evan Preisser

The nonnative hemlock woolly adelgid is steadily killing eastern hemlock trees in many parts of eastern North America. We summarize impacts of the adelgid on these forest foundation species; review previous models and analyses of adelgid spread dynamics; and examine how previous forecasts of adelgid spread and ecosystem dynamics compare with current conditions. The adelgid has reset successional sequences, homogenized biological diversity at landscape scales, altered hydrological dynamics, and changed forest stands from carbon sinks into carbon sources. A new model better predicts spread of the adelgid in the south and west of the range of hemlock, but still under-predicts its spread in the north and east. Whether these underpredictions result from inadequately modeling accelerating climate change or accounting for people inadvertently moving the adelgid into new locales needs further study. Ecosystem models of adelgid-driven hemlock dynamics have consistently forecast that forest carbon stocks will be little affected by the shift from hemlock to early-successional mixed hardwood stands, but these forecasts have assumed that the intermediate stages will remain carbon sinks. New forecasting models of adelgid-driven hemlock decline should account for observed abrupt changes in carbon flux and ongoing and accelerating human-driven land-use and climatic changes.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Mac-Auliffe ◽  
Benoit Chatard ◽  
Mathilde Petton ◽  
Anne-Claire Croizé ◽  
Florian Sipp ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTDual-tasking is extremely prominent nowadays, despite ample evidence that it comes with a performance cost: the Dual-Task (DT) cost. Neuroimaging studies have established that tasks are more likely to interfere if they rely on common brain regions, but the precise neural origin of the DT cost has proven elusive so far, mostly because fMRI does not record neural activity directly and cannot reveal the key effect of timing, and how the spatio-temporal neural dynamics of the tasks coincide.Recently, DT electrophysiological studies in monkeys have recorded neural populations shared by the two tasks with millisecond precision to provide a much finer understanding of the origin of the DT cost. We used a similar approach in humans, with intracranial EEG, to assess the neural origin of the DT cost in a particularly challenging naturalistic paradigm which required accurate motor responses to frequent visual stimuli (task T1) and the retrieval of information from long-term memory (task T2), as when answering passengers’ questions while driving.We found that T2 elicited neuroelectric interferences in the gamma-band (>40 Hz), in key regions of the T1 network including the Multiple Demand Network. They reproduced the effect of disruptive electrocortical stimulations to create a situation of dynamical incompatibility, which might explain the DT cost. Yet, participants were able to flexibly adapt their strategy to minimize interference, and most surprisingly, reduce the reliance of T1 on key regions of the executive control network – the anterior insula and the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex – with no performance decrement.HIGHLIGHTS- First direct evidence in humans of neural interferences between two tasks.- First explanation of the Dual-Task cost at the neural level in humans.- First Dual-Tasking study with intracranial EEG in naturalistic conditions.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheynna Crowley ◽  
Yuchen Yang ◽  
Yunjiang Qiu ◽  
Benxia Hu ◽  
Armen Abnousi ◽  
...  

AbstractHi-C experiments have been widely adopted to study chromatin spatial organization, which plays an essential role in genome function. We have recently identified frequently interacting regions (FIREs) and found that they are closely associated with cell-type-specific gene regulation. However, computational tools for detecting FIREs from Hi-C data are still lacking. In this work, we present FIREcaller, a stand-alone, user-friendly R package for detecting FIREs from Hi-C data. FIREcaller takes raw Hi-C contact matrices as input, performs within-sample and cross-sample normalization, and outputs continuous FIRE scores, dichotomous FIREs, and super-FIREs. Applying FIREcaller to Hi-C data from various human tissues, we demonstrate that FIREs and super-FIREs identified, in a tissue-specific manner, are closely related to gene regulation, are enriched for enhancer-promoter (E-P) interactions, tend to overlap with regions exhibiting epigenomic signatures of cis-regulatory roles, and aid the interpretation or GWAS variants. The FIREcaller package is implemented in R and freely available at https://yunliweb.its.unc.edu/FIREcaller.Highlights– Frequently Interacting Regions (FIREs) can be used to identify tissue and cell-type-specific cis-regulatory regions.– An R software, FIREcaller, has been developed to identify FIREs and clustered FIREs into super-FIREs.


2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 2043-2062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol D. von Dohlen ◽  
Usha Spaulding ◽  
Kathleen Shields ◽  
Nathan P. Havill ◽  
Cristina Rosa ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (s1) ◽  
pp. 51-51
Author(s):  
John Del Gaizo ◽  
Alexander Alekseyenko ◽  
Kenneth Catchpole

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: A web interface that allows for easy upload of CSV text data to time-based visualizationsImplementation of change points analysis to identify and display points where event rates increased or decreasedcustomizable plots where the user can change point shapes, color, etc.customizable and advanced filtering supportsupport for plot comparisons and exportsMETHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We used the R/Shiny framework to develop a web application for visualization of time stamped data. The Research and Exploratory Analysis Driven Time-data Visualization (READ-TV) application allows for user-friendly mining for longitudinal patterns in data. READ-TV is built specifically for FD analysis, but is easily adaptable to other clinical use cases, as we allow for the use of general metadata on events and cases.The building of a quantitative framework for event analysis starts with the application of homogeneous Poisson processes, which relate the times of occurrence of events in terms of an underlying rate. To understand the changes in this underlying rate, changepoint analysis is used to model the rate as a function of time using piecewise constant approximations. The changepoint analysis allows us to identify the specific periods of time where the rate of FD is increased relative to a baseline or a desired operating range. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: READ-TV application allows for import of time stamped event data from multiple cases. Event and case metadata are supported to facilitate filtering and mining of interesting subsets of data. Stem plots are used for visualization of selected event timelines in chosen cases. This visualization is accompanied with summary of the number and estimates of rates of occurrence of specific event types (e.g. types of FD). Change-point analysis is implemented using the ‘changepoint‘ R library. These analyses allow the users to quickly understand whether the rates of events (FD) is changing across the case timeline and where exactly these changes are occurring. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: We have demonstrated the READ-TV application to the team of the AHRQ-funded Human Factors and Systems Integration in High Technology Surgery (HF-SIgHTS) study. The ability to visualize and perform quantitative analysis of the study data was received with unanimous positive feedback and enthusiasm. We continue READ-TV development focusing on (1) increased user-friendliness using the HF-SIgHTS as our focus group, (2) increased functionality, and (3) use of more general localization terminology to allow for other applications.


2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa A. Churchel ◽  
James L. Hanula ◽  
C. Wayne Berisford ◽  
James M. Vose ◽  
Mark J. Dalusky

Abstract Imidacloprid, a systemic insecticide that acts on the nervous system, is currently being used to control hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand), which is damaging hemlock trees. The objective of this study was to determine whether soil injection with imidacloprid for hemlock woolly adelgid control near streams adversely affects aquatic invertebrates. Eastern hemlocks (Tsuga canadensis) in the watersheds surrounding four streams in the southern Appalachian region of Georgia and North Carolina were treated with imidacloprid. Addie Branch was the only stream that exhibited a possible effect from imidacloprid treatment. However, the data followed the same pattern as the other treatment streams, but with a more pronounced decrease in taxa due to adult emergence. Only a trace amount of imidacloprid was detected in one water sample from Holcomb Tributary over a period of 2 years, and no effect was observed on the aquatic macroinvertebrates in that stream. However, caution should be used when applying these results to other areas with different soil types (e.g., low organic matter content) that may not bind imidacloprid as tightly. Our results indicate that soil injections of imidacloprid can safely be used in the southern Appalachian area to control hemlock woolly adelgid.


2019 ◽  
Vol 117 (4) ◽  
pp. 340-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heath W Garris ◽  
Thomas H Settle ◽  
Jonathan E Crossman ◽  
Stephen J Grider ◽  
Shawnté L Michaels

Abstract The neonicotinoid systemic insecticide imidacloprid has proven to be an effective treatment for the prevention and control of hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand) in southeastern populations of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis L.). Recent studies have demonstrated that imidacloprid and A. tsugae both stimulate salicylic acid-dependent physiological responses in plant tissues responsible for plant defenses against pathogens, timing of developmental outcomes including flowering and leaf senescence, and resilience to abiotic stressors. We evaluated the interacting effects of A. tsugae presence/absence and treatment with imidacloprid on leaf optical properties indicative of photosynthetic potential, photosynthetic efficiency, and tissue senescence. Our results indicated that A. tsugae changes lower canopy leaf optical properties indicative of reduced photosynthetic potential/efficiency and accelerated senescence in mature leaves. Imidacloprid was associated with declines in photosynthetic potential and showed a largely similar, though less pronounced, effect on leaf spectral properties to that of A. tsugae.


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